Research questions to facilitate the future development of European long-term ecosystem research infrastructures: A horizon scanning exercise.

Distributed environmental research infrastructures are important to support assessments of the effects of global change on landscapes, ecosystems and society. These infrastructures need to provide continuity to address long-term change, yet be flexible enough to respond to rapid societal and technological developments that modify research priorities. We used a horizon scanning exercise to identify and prioritize emerging research questions for the future development of ecosystem and socio-ecological research infrastructures in Europe. Twenty research questions covered topics related to (i) ecosystem structures and processes, (ii) the impacts of anthropogenic drivers on ecosystems, (iii) ecosystem services and socio-ecological systems and (iv), methods and research infrastructures. Several key priorities for the development of research infrastructures emerged. Addressing complex environmental issues requires the adoption of a whole-system approach, achieved through integration of biotic, abiotic and socio-economic measurements. Interoperability among different research infrastructures needs to be improved by developing standard measurements, harmonizing methods, and establishing capacities and tools for data integration, processing, storage and analysis. Future research infrastructures should support a range of methodological approaches including observation, experiments and modelling. They should also have flexibility to respond to new requirements, for example by adjusting the spatio-temporal design of measurements. When new methods are introduced, compatibility with important long-term data series must be ensured. Finally, indicators, tools, and transdisciplinary approaches to identify, quantify and value ecosystem services across spatial scales and domains need to be advanced.

Inferring Past Trends in Lake Water Organic Carbon Concentrations in Northern Lakes Using Sediment Spectroscopy.

Changing lake water total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations are of concern for lake management because of corresponding effects on aquatic ecosystem functioning, drinking water resources and carbon cycling between land and sea. Understanding the importance of human activities on TOC changes requires knowledge of past concentrations; however, water-monitoring data are typically only available for the past few decades, if at all. Here, we present a universal model to infer past lake water TOC concentrations in northern lakes across Europe and North America that uses visible-near-infrared (VNIR) spectroscopy on lake sediments. In the orthogonal partial least-squares model, VNIR spectra of surface-sediment samples are calibrated against corresponding surface water TOC concentrations (0.5-41 mg L-1) from 345 Arctic to northern temperate lakes in Canada, Greenland, Sweden and Finland. Internal model-cross-validation resulted in a R2 of 0.57 and a prediction error of 4.4 mg TOC L-1. First applications to lakes in southern Ontario and Scotland, which are outside of the model's geographic range, show the model accurately captures monitoring trends, and suggests that TOC dynamics during the 20th century at these sites were primarily driven by changes in atmospheric deposition. Our results demonstrate that the lake water TOC model has multiregional applications and is not biased by postdepositional diagenesis, allowing the identification of past TOC variations in northern lakes of Europe and North America over time scales of decades to millennia.

Heavy Rainfall Impacts on Trihalomethane Formation in Contrasting Northwestern European Potable Waters.

There is emerging concern over the impact of extreme events such as heavy rainfall on the quality of water entering the drinking water supply from aboveground sources, as such events are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency in response to climate change. We compared the impact of rainfall events on streamwater quality in four contrasting upland (peatland and mineral soil) and lowland agricultural catchments used to supply drinking water in France (Brittany) and the United Kingdom (North Wales) by analyzing water samples collected before, during, and after specific events. At all four streams, heavy rainfall led to a considerable rise in organic matter concentration ranging from 48 to 158%. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) quality, as determined using specific ultraviolet absorbance, changed consistently at all sites during rainfall events, with a greater proportion of aromatic and higher molecular weight compounds following the onset of rainfall. However, the change in DOC quality and quantity did not significantly alter the trihalomethane formation potential. We observed small increases in trihalomethane (THM) generation only at the Welsh peatland and agricultural sites and a small decrease at the Brittany agricultural site. The proportion of brominated THMs in chlorinated waters was positively correlated with bromide/DOC ratio in raw waters for all sites and hydrological conditions. These results provide a first indication of the potential implications for surface-based drinking water resources resulting from expected future increases in rainfall event intensity and extension of dry periods with climate changes.

Consequence of altered nitrogen cycles in the coupled human and ecological system under changing climate: The need for long-term and site-based research.

Anthropogenically derived nitrogen (N) has a central role in global environmental changes, including climate change, biodiversity loss, air pollution, greenhouse gas emission, water pollution, as well as food production and human health. Current understanding of the biogeochemical processes that govern the N cycle in coupled human-ecological systems around the globe is drawn largely from the long-term ecological monitoring and experimental studies. Here, we review spatial and temporal patterns and trends in reactive N emissions, and the interactions between N and other important elements that dictate their delivery from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems, and the impacts of N on biodiversity and human society. Integrated international and long-term collaborative studies covering research gaps will reduce uncertainties and promote further understanding of the nitrogen cycle in various ecosystems.

The evolving role of weather types on rainfall chemistry under large reductions in pollutant emissions.

Long-term change and shorter-term variability in the atmospheric deposition of pollutants and marine salts can have major effects on the biogeochemistry and ecology of soils and surface water ecosystems. In the 1980s, at the time of peak acid deposition in the UK, deposition loads were highly dependent on prevailing weather types, and it was postulated that future pollution recovery trajectories would be partly dependent on any climate change-driven shifts in weather systems. Following three decades of substantial acidic emission reductions, we used monitoring data collected between 1992 and 2015 from four UK Environmental Change Network (ECN) sites in contrasting parts of Great Britain to examine the trends in precipitation chemistry in relation to prevailing weather conditions. Weather systems were classified on the basis of Lamb weather type (LWT) groupings, while emissions inventories and clustering of air mass trajectories were used to interpret the observed patterns. Concentrations of ions showed clear differences between cyclonic-westerly-dominated periods and others, reflecting higher marine and lower anthropogenic contributions in Atlantic air masses. Westerlies were associated with higher rainfall, higher sea salt concentrations, and lower pollutant concentrations at all sites, while air mass paths exerted additional controls. Westerlies therefore have continued to favour higher sea salt fluxes, whereas emission reductions are increasingly leading to positive correlations between westerlies and pollutant fluxes. Our results also suggest a shift from the influence of anthropogenic emissions to natural emissions (e.g., sea salt) and climate forcing as they are transported under relatively cleaner conditions to the UK. Westerlies have been relatively frequent over the ECN monitoring period, but longer-term cyclicity in these weather types suggests that current contributions to precipitation may not be sustained over coming years.

Hydrochloric acid: an overlooked driver of environmental change.

Research on the ecosystem impacts of acidifying pollutants, and measures to control them, has focused almost exclusively on sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) compounds. Hydrochloric acid (HCl), although emitted by coal burning, has been overlooked as a driver of ecosystem change because most of it was considered to redeposit close to emission sources rather than in remote natural ecosystems. Despite receiving little regulatory attention, measures to reduce S emissions, and changes in energy supply, have led to a 95% reduction in United Kingdom HCl emissions within 20 years. Long-term precipitation, surface water, and soil solution data suggest that the near-disappearance of HCl from deposition could account for 30-40% of chemical recovery from acidification during this time, affecting both near-source and remote areas. Because HCl is highly mobile in reducing environments, it is a more potent acidifier of wetlands than S or N, and HCl may have been the major driver of past peatland acidification. Reduced HCl loadings could therefore have affected the peatland carbon cycle, contributing to increases in dissolved organic carbon leaching to surface waters. With many regions increasingly reliant on coal for power generation, HCl should be recognized as a potentially significant constituent of resulting emissions, with distinctive ecosystem impacts.

Spatial properties affecting the sensitivity of soil water dissolved organic carbon long-term median concentrations and trends.

It is increasingly clear that increases in dissolved organic carbon in upland waters in recent decades have often been dominated by acid deposition, but reasons for substantial variation in rates of change remain unclear. This paper focuses on the extent to which spatial properties, such as variation in soil properties, atmospheric deposition and climate, affect the sensitivity of DOC concentrations in soil water. The purpose is to i) examine evidence for differences in site average concentrations and trends in soil water DOC between sites with contrasting ecosystem properties, i.e. vegetation cover and soil type, and ii) identify the wider combination of site characteristics that best explain variation in these DOC metrics between sites. We collated soil water and deposition chemistry, soil chemistry and meteorological data from 15 long-term UK monitoring sites (1992-2010) covering a range of soils, vegetation, climate and acid deposition levels. Mineral soils under forests showed the greatest range of long-term mean DOC concentrations and trends. Regression analysis indicated that acid and sea-salt deposition, and soil sensitivity to acidification were the factors most strongly associated with spatial variation in mean DOC concentrations. Spatial variation in DOC trends were best explained by Al saturation and water flux. Overall, the sensitivity of DOC release from soil to changes in pollutant deposition could be related to the type of vegetation cover and soils chemistry properties, such as Al saturation, divalent base cation content and hydrological regime. The identification of the ecosystem properties that appear most influential in modifying DOC production and responses to long-term drivers, helps elucidate potential mechanistic explanations for differences in DOC dynamics across seemingly similar ecosystems, and points to the importance of DOC mobility in regulating its dynamics.

Meta-analysis of multidecadal biodiversity trends in Europe.

Local biodiversity trends over time are likely to be decoupled from global trends, as local processes may compensate or counteract global change. We analyze 161 long-term biological time series (15-91 years) collected across Europe, using a comprehensive dataset comprising ~6,200 marine, freshwater and terrestrial taxa. We test whether (i) local long-term biodiversity trends are consistent among biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups, and (ii) changes in biodiversity correlate with regional climate and local conditions. Our results reveal that local trends of abundance, richness and diversity differ among biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups, demonstrating that biodiversity changes at local scale are often complex and cannot be easily generalized. However, we find increases in richness and abundance with increasing temperature and naturalness as well as a clear spatial pattern in changes in community composition (i.e. temporal taxonomic turnover) in most biogeoregions of Northern and Eastern Europe.

Buffering of recovery from acidification by organic acids.

In the United Kingdom, as in other regions of Europe and North America, recent decreases in surface water sulphate concentrations, due to reduced sulphur emissions, have coincided with marked increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations. Since many of the compounds comprising DOC are acidic, the resulting increases in organic acidity may have the potential to offset the benefits of a decrease in mineral (sulphate) acidity. To test this, we used a triprotic model of organic acid dissociation to estimate the proportional organic acid buffering of reduced mineral acidity as measured in the 22 lakes and streams monitored by the UK Acid Waters Monitoring Network. For an average non-marine sulphate decrease of 30 mueq l(-1) over 15 years from 1988-2003, we estimate that around 28% was counterbalanced by rising strong organic acids, 20% by rising alkalinity (partly attributable to an increase in weak organic acids), 11% by falling inorganic aluminium and 41% by falling non-marine base cations. The situation is complicated by a concurrent decrease in marine ion concentrations, and the impact this may have had on both DOC and acidity, but results clearly demonstrate that organic acid increases have substantially limited the amount of recovery from acidification (in terms of rising alkalinity and falling aluminium) that have resulted from reducing sulphur emissions. The consistency and magnitude of sulphate and organic acid changes are consistent with a causal link between the two, possibly due to the effects of changing acidity, ionic strength and aluminium concentrations on organic matter solubility. If this is the case, then organic acids can be considered effective but partial buffers to acidity change in organic soils, and this mechanism needs to be considered in assessing and modelling recovery from acidification, and in defining realistic reference conditions. However, large spatial variations in the relative magnitude of organic acid and sulphate changes, notably for low-deposition sites in northwestern areas where organic acid increases apparently exceed non-marine sulphate decreases, suggest that additional factors, such as changes in sea-salt deposition and climatic factors, may be required to explain the full magnitude of DOC increases in UK surface waters.

Effects of changing climate on European stream invertebrate communities: A long-term data analysis.

Long-term observations on riverine benthic invertebrate communities enable assessments of the potential impacts of global change on stream ecosystems. Besides increasing average temperatures, many studies predict greater temperature extremes and intense precipitation events as a consequence of climate change. In this study we examined long-term observation data (10-32years) of 26 streams and rivers from four ecoregions in the European Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) network, to investigate invertebrate community responses to changing climatic conditions. We used functional trait and multi-taxonomic analyses and combined examinations of general long-term changes in communities with detailed analyses of the impact of different climatic drivers (i.e., various temperature and precipitation variables) by focusing on the response of communities to climatic conditions of the previous year. Taxa and ecoregions differed substantially in their response to climate change conditions. We did not observe any trend of changes in total taxonomic richness or overall abundance over time or with increasing temperatures, which reflects a compensatory turnover in the composition of communities; sensitive Plecoptera decreased in response to warmer years and Ephemeroptera increased in northern regions. Invasive species increased with an increasing number of extreme days which also caused an apparent upstream community movement. The observed changes in functional feeding group diversity indicate that climate change may be associated with changes in trophic interactions within aquatic food webs. These findings highlight the vulnerability of riverine ecosystems to climate change and emphasize the need to further explore the interactive effects of climate change variables with other local stressors to develop appropriate conservation measures.

Long-term chloride concentrations in North American and European freshwater lakes.

Anthropogenic sources of chloride in a lake catchment, including road salt, fertilizer, and wastewater, can elevate the chloride concentration in freshwater lakes above background levels. Rising chloride concentrations can impact lake ecology and ecosystem services such as fisheries and the use of lakes as drinking water sources. To analyze the spatial extent and magnitude of increasing chloride concentrations in freshwater lakes, we amassed a database of 529 lakes in Europe and North America that had greater than or equal to ten years of chloride data. For each lake, we calculated climate statistics of mean annual total precipitation and mean monthly air temperatures from gridded global datasets. We also quantified land cover metrics, including road density and impervious surface, in buffer zones of 100 to 1,500 m surrounding the perimeter of each lake. This database represents the largest global collection of lake chloride data. We hope that long-term water quality measurements in areas outside Europe and North America can be added to the database as they become available in the future.

A Water Framework Directive-compatible metric for assessing acidification in UK and Irish rivers using diatoms.

Freshwater acidification continues to be a major problem affecting large areas of Europe, and while there is evidence for chemical recovery, similar evidence for biological recovery of freshwaters is sparse. The need for a methodology to identify waterbodies impacted acidification and to assess the extent of biological recovery is relevant to the EU Water Framework Directive, which requires methods to quantify differences in biology between impacted and unimpacted or reference sites. This study presents a new WFD-compliant metric based on diatoms (Diatom Acidification Metric: DAM) for assessing the acidification status of rivers. A database of 558 benthic diatom samples and associated water chemistry data was assembled. Diatom taxa were assigned to one of 5 indicator classes on the basis of their pH optimum, assessed using Gaussian logistic regression, and these indicator values used to calculate a DAM score for each site using weighted averaging. Reference sites were selected on the basis of their acid neutralising capacity (ANC) and calcium concentration, and a regression model developed to predict expected DAM for each site using pH and total organic carbon (TOC) concentration. Site-specific DAM scores were used to calculate ecological quality ratios ranging from ≥1, where the diatom assemblage showed no impact, to (theoretically) 0, when the diatom assemblage was indicative of major anthropogenic activities. The boundary between 'high' and 'good' status was defined as the 25th percentile of Ecological Quality Ratios (EQRs) of all reference sites. The boundary between 'good' and 'moderate' status was set at the point at which nutrient-sensitive and nutrient-tolerant taxa were present in equal relative abundance. The methodology was evaluated using long-term data from 11 sites from the UK Uplands Waters Monitoring Network and is shown to perform well in discriminating naturally acid from acidified sites.