Evolution of natural and social science interactions in global change research programs.

Efforts to develop a global understanding of the functioning of the Earth as a system began in the mid-1980s. This effort necessitated linking knowledge from both the physical and biological realms. A motivation for this development was the growing impact of humans on the Earth system and need to provide solutions, but the study of the social drivers and their consequences for the changes that were occurring was not incorporated into the Earth System Science movement, despite early attempts to do so. The impediments to integration were many, but they are gradually being overcome, which can be seen in many trends for assessments, such as the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, as well as both basic and applied science programs. In this development, particular people and events have shaped the trajectories that have occurred. The lessons learned should be considered in such emerging research programs as Future Earth, the new global program for sustainability research. The transitioning process to this new program will take time as scientists adjust to new colleagues with different ideologies, methods, and tools and a new way of doing science.

Science for managing ecosystem services: Beyond the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) introduced a new framework for analyzing social-ecological systems that has had wide influence in the policy and scientific communities. Studies after the MA are taking up new challenges in the basic science needed to assess, project, and manage flows of ecosystem services and effects on human well-being. Yet, our ability to draw general conclusions remains limited by focus on discipline-bound sectors of the full social-ecological system. At the same time, some polices and practices intended to improve ecosystem services and human well-being are based on untested assumptions and sparse information. The people who are affected and those who provide resources are increasingly asking for evidence that interventions improve ecosystem services and human well-being. New research is needed that considers the full ensemble of processes and feedbacks, for a range of biophysical and social systems, to better understand and manage the dynamics of the relationship between humans and the ecosystems on which they rely. Such research will expand the capacity to address fundamental questions about complex social-ecological systems while evaluating assumptions of policies and practices intended to advance human well-being through improved ecosystem services.

The IPBES Global Assessment: Pathways to Action.

The first Global Assessment of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) found widespread, accelerating declines in Earth's biodiversity and associated benefits to people from nature. Addressing these trends will require science-based policy responses to reduce impacts, especially at national to local scales. Effective scaling of science-policy efforts, driven by global and national assessments, is a major challenge for turning assessment into action and will require unprecedented commitment by scientists to engage with communities of policy and practice. Fulfillment of science's social contract with society, and with nature, will require strong institutional support for scientists' participation in activities that transcend conventional research and publication.

Author Correction: A global test of ecoregions.

The original paper was published without unique DOIs for GBIF occurrence downloads. These have now been inserted as references 70-76, and the error has been corrected in the PDF and HTML versions of the article.

Responses of grassland production to single and multiple global environmental changes.

In this century, increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere are expected to cause warmer surface temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. At the same time, reactive nitrogen is entering natural systems at unprecedented rates. These global environmental changes have consequences for the functioning of natural ecosystems, and responses of these systems may feed back to affect climate and atmospheric composition. Here, we report plant growth responses of an ecosystem exposed to factorial combinations of four expected global environmental changes. We exposed California grassland to elevated CO2, temperature, precipitation, and nitrogen deposition for five years. Root and shoot production did not respond to elevated CO2 or modest warming. Supplemental precipitation led to increases in shoot production and offsetting decreases in root production. Supplemental nitrate deposition increased total production by an average of 26%, primarily by stimulating shoot growth. Interactions among the main treatments were rare. Together, these results suggest that production in this grassland will respond minimally to changes in CO2 and winter precipitation, and to small amounts of warming. Increased nitrate deposition would have stronger effects on the grassland. Aside from this nitrate response, expectations that a changing atmosphere and climate would promote carbon storage by increasing plant growth appear unlikely to be realized in this system.

Tradeoffs in demographic mechanisms underlie differences in species abundance and stability.

Understanding why some species are common and others are rare is a central question in ecology, and is critical for developing conservation strategies under global change. Rare species are typically considered to be more prone to extinction-but the fact they are rare can impede a general understanding of rarity vs. abundance. Here we develop and empirically test a framework to predict species abundances and stability using mechanisms governing population dynamics. Our results demonstrate that coexisting species with similar abundances can be shaped by different mechanisms (specifically, higher growth rates when rare vs. weaker negative density-dependence). Further, these dynamics influence population stability: species with higher intrinsic growth rates but stronger negative density-dependence were more stable and less sensitive to climate variability, regardless of abundance. This suggests that underlying mechanisms governing population dynamics, in addition to population size, may be critical indicators of population stability in an increasingly variable world.

A global test of ecoregions.

A foundational paradigm in biological and Earth sciences is that our planet is divided into distinct ecoregions and biomes demarking unique assemblages of species. This notion has profoundly influenced scientific research and environmental policy. Given recent advances in technology and data availability, however, we are now poised to ask whether ecoregions meaningfully delimit biological communities. Using over 200 million observations of plants, animals and fungi we show compelling evidence that ecoregions delineate terrestrial biodiversity patterns. We achieve this by testing two competing hypotheses: the sharp-transition hypothesis, positing that ecoregion borders divide differentiated biotic communities; and the gradual-transition hypothesis, proposing instead that species turnover is continuous and largely independent of ecoregion borders. We find strong support for the sharp-transition hypothesis across all taxa, although adherence to ecoregion boundaries varies across taxa. Although plant and vertebrate species are tightly linked to sharp ecoregion boundaries, arthropods and fungi show weaker affiliations to this set of ecoregion borders. Our results highlight the essential value of ecological data for setting conservation priorities and reinforce the importance of protecting habitats across as many ecoregions as possible. Specifically, we conclude that ecoregion-based conservation planning can guide investments that simultaneously protect species-, community- and ecosystem-level biodiversity, key for securing Earth's life support systems into the future.

International trade in meat: the tip of the pork chop.

This paper provides an original account of global land, water, and nitrogen use in support of industrialized livestock production and trade, with emphasis on two of the fastest-growing sectors, pork and poultry. Our analysis focuses on trade in feed and animal products, using a new model that calculates the amount of "virtual" nitrogen, water, and land used in production but not embedded in the product. We show how key meat-importing countries, such as Japan, benefit from "virtual" trade in land, water, and nitrogen, and how key meat-exporting countries, such as Brazil, provide these resources without accounting for their true environmental cost. Results show that Japan's pig and chicken meat imports embody the virtual equivalent of 50% of Japan's total arable land, and half of Japan's virtual nitrogen total is lost in the US. Trade links with China are responsible for 15% of the virtual nitrogen left behind in Brazil due to feed and meat exports, and 20% of Brazil's area is used to grow soybean exports. The complexity of trade in meat, feed, water, and nitrogen is illustrated by the dual roles of the US and The Netherlands as both importers and exporters of meat. Mitigation of environmental damage from industrialized livestock production and trade depends on a combination of direct-pricing strategies, regulatory approaches, and use of best management practices. Our analysis indicates that increased water- and nitrogen-use efficiency and land conservation resulting from these measures could significantly reduce resource costs.

Herbivore control of annual grassland composition in current and future environments.

Selective consumption by herbivores influences the composition and structure of a range of plant communities. Anthropogenically driven global environmental changes, including increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)), warming, increased precipitation, and increased N deposition, directly alter plant physiological properties, which may in turn modify herbivore consumption patterns. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that responses of annual grassland composition to global changes can be predicted exclusively from environmentally induced changes in the consumption patterns of a group of widespread herbivores, the terrestrial gastropods. This was done by: (1) assessing gastropod impacts on grassland composition under ambient conditions; (2) quantifying environmentally induced changes in gastropod feeding behaviour; (3) predicting how grassland composition would respond to global-change manipulations if influenced only by herbivore consumption preferences; and (4) comparing these predictions to observed responses of grassland community composition to simulated global changes. Gastropod herbivores consume nearly half of aboveground production in this system. Global changes induced species-specific changes in plant leaf characteristics, leading gastropods to alter the relative amounts of different plant types consumed. These changes in gastropod feeding preferences consistently explained global-change-induced responses of functional group abundance in an intact annual grassland exposed to simulated future environments. For four of the five global change scenarios, gastropod impacts explained > 50% of the quantitative changes, indicating that herbivore preferences can be a major driver of plant community responses to global changes.

Gastropod herbivory in response to elevated CO2 and N addition impacts plant community composition.

In this study, the influence of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen (N) deposition on gastropod herbivory was investigated for six annual species in a California annual grassland community. These experimentally simulated global changes increased availability of important resources for plant growth, leading to the hypothesis that species with the most positive growth and foliar nutrient responses would experience the greatest increase in herbivory. Counter to the expectations, shifts in tissue N and growth rates caused by N deposition did not predict shifts in herbivore consumption rates. N deposition increased seedling N concentrations and growth rates but did not increase herbivore consumption overall, or for any individual species. Elevated CO2 did not influence growth rates nor have a statistically significant influence on seedling N concentrations. Elevated CO2 at ambient N levels caused a decline in the number of seedlings consumed, but the interaction between CO2 and N addition differed among species. The results of this study indicate that shifting patterns of herbivory will likely influence species composition as environmental conditions change in the future; however, a simple trade-off between shifting growth rates and palatability is not evident.

Herbivory on Diplacus aurantiacus shrubs in sun and shade.

This study tested the hypothesis that carbon allocation to the production of leaf antiherbivore chemicals reflects the intensity of herbivory and interacts with resource allocation to photosynthesis. The amount of herbivory by Euphydryas chalcedona butterfly larvae was measured on Diplacus aurantiacus shrubs growing in different daily solar irradiance regimes. The amount of herbivory sustained by plants was directly related to the degree of solar irradiance the shrubs received and to characteristics which vary with light intensity, e.g. leaf specific weight, but not to leaf resin or nitrogen content. Carbon allocation to the defense of leaf area was marginally related to the light regime, but was not directly related to photosynthetic income.

Ecology of SO2 resistance : V. effects of volcanic SO2 on native Hawaiian plants.

Plant species reflected SO2-stress gradients that existed with increased distance from Hawaiian volcano vents which emit SO2. These changes relate, in part at least, to species differences in stomatal responses to SO2. The sensitive leaves do not close their stomata when exposed to elevated atmospheric SO2 concentrations.

Seasonal variation in the production of tannins and cyanogenic glucosides in the chaparral shrub, Heteromeles arbutifolia.

The seasonal quantitative variation in tannin and cyanogenic glucoside levels was examined in a population of Heteromeles arbutifolia, an evergreen sclerophyll shrub, during the growing seasons of 1972 and 1973. The seasonal syntheses of these presumed herbivore defensive compounds relates to patterns of carbon gain and allocation as well as nutrient status in this plant: 1. Leaves exhibit high levels of both tannins and cyanogenic glucosides at the time of their initiation. It is postulated that these high levels are possible because of favorable balance of carbon and nutrients prior to leaf initiation. 2. Levels of the nitrogen-containing cyanogenic glucosides in the leaves correlate positively with available nitrogen in this plant which varies seasonally. 3. Fruits exhibit a long maturation period characterized by low levels of predation. On maturation the fruits are rapidly removed by birds. Natural products seem to play a role in this system. Immature fruit exhibits extremely high tannin levels as well as puly cyanogenic glucosides. On maturation the tannin levels decline and the glucosides are shifted from the pulp to the seeds.

Ecology of SO2 resistance: III. Metabolic changes of C3 and C4 Atriplex species due to SO2 fumigations.

The photosynthetic processes of two ecologically-matched, herbaceous Atriplex species differed in their response to SO2 fumigations. Atriplex triangularis, a C3 species, was more sensitive than the C4 species, A. sabulosa. This difference in sensitivity can be attributed in part to the higher conductance of the C3 species in normal air and saturating light as well as greater stimulation of stomatal opening following exposure to SO2. In addition, photosynthetic mechanisms of the C3 species had higher intrinsic SO2 sensitivity than the C4 species. Differences between photosynthetic responses of these two species may also reflect differences in morphological configuration of mesophyll tissues and greater SO2 sensitivity of the initial photosynthetic carboxlating enzyme of the C3 species. It is likely that certain of the differences in photosynthetic SO2 sensitivity of these contrasting C3 and C4 Atriplex species are characteristic of C3 and C4 plants in general.

Ecology of SO2 resistance: I. Effects of fumigations on gas exchange of deciduous and evergreen shrubs.

A unique gas exchange system is described in which photosynthesis, transpiration, and stomatal conductance can be measured on leaves during SO2 fumigations. SO2 concentrations can be continuously monitored and manipulated between 0 and 2.0 ppm. Rates of total SO2 uptake and SO2 absorption through stomates of a fumigated leaf can also be determined.Using this system we compared the effects of SO2 on the gas exchange rates of two shrub species that co-occur in the Califormian chaparral. Diplacus aurantiacus, a deciduous shrub, was more sensitive to SO2 fumigation than Heteromeles arbutifolia, an evergreen shrub. The differences in photosynthetic sensitivity could be attributed, in large part, to differential SO2 absorption rates.

Ecology of SO2 resistance: II. Photosynthetic changes of shrubs in relation to SO2 absorption and stomatal behavior.

In an effort to predict SO2 sensitivity of plants from their morphological and physiological features, the effects of SO2 on photosynthesis were partitioned between stomatal and nonstomatal components for a drought deciduous shrub, Diplacus aurantiacus, and an evergreen shrub, Heteromeles arbutifolia. As predicted, the drought deciduous shrub had the higher gas conductance, and hence SO2 absorptance. However, nonstomatal components also play a role in determining SO2 sensitivity. Apparently a plant with a high intrinsic photosynthetic capacity will be more sensitive to SO2 than one with a lower capacity.

Controls of biomass partitioning between roots and shoots: Atmospheric CO2 enrichment and the acquisition and allocation of carbon and nitrogen in wild radish.

The effects of CO2 enrichment on plant growth, carbon and nitrogen acquisition and resource allocation were investigated in order to examine several hypotheses about the mechanisms that govern dry matter partitioning between shoots and roots. Wild radish plants (Raphanus sativus × raphanistrum) were grown for 25 d under three different atmospheric CO2 concentrations (200 ppm, 330 ppm and 600 ppm) with a stable hydroponic 150 µmol 1-1 nitrate supply. Radish biomass accumulation, photosynthetic rate, water use efficiency, nitrogen per unit leaf area, and starch and soluble sugar levels in leaves increased with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, whereas specific leaf area and nitrogen concentration of leaves significantly decreased. Despite substantial changes in radish growth, resource acquisition and resource partitioning, the rate at which leaves accumulated starch over the course of the light period and the partitioning of biomass between roots and shoots were not affected by CO2 treatment. This phenomenon was consistent with the hypothesis that root/shoot partitioning is related to the daily rate of starch accumulation by leaves during the photoperiod, but is inconsistent with hypotheses suggesting that root/shoot partitioning is controlled by some aspect of plant C/N balance.

Effects of CO2 and nutrient enrichment on tissue quality of two California annuals.

The effects of CO2 enrichment and soil nutrient status on tissue quality were investigated and related to the potential effect on growth and decomposition. Two California annuals, Avena fatua and Plantago erecta, were grown at ambient and ambient plus 35 Pa atmospheric CO2 in nutrient unamended and amended serpentine soil. Elevated CO2 led to significantly increased Avena shoot nitrogen concentrations in the nutrient amended treatment. It also led to decreased lignin concentrations in Avena roots in both nutrient treatments, and in Plantago shoots and roots with nutrient addition. Concentrations of total nonstructural carbohydrate (TNC) and carbon did not change with elevated CO2 in either species. As a consequence of increased biomass accumulation, increased CO2 led to larger total pools of TNC, lignin, total carbon, and total nitrogen in Avena with nutrient additions. Doubling CO2 had no significant effect on Plantago. Given the limited changes in the compounds related to decomposibility and plant growth, effects of increased atmospheric CO2 mediated through tissue composition on Avena and Plantago are likely to be minor and depend on site fertility. This study suggests that other factors such as litter moisture, whether or not litter is on the ground, and biomass allocation among roots and shoots, are likely to be more important in this California grassland ecosystem. CO2 could influence those directly as well as indirectly.