Reporting all results efficiently: A RARE proposal to open up the file drawer.

While the social sciences have made impressive progress in adopting transparent research practices that facilitate verification, replication, and reuse of materials, the problem of publication bias persists. Bias on the part of peer reviewers and journal editors, as well as the use of outdated research practices by authors, continues to skew literature toward statistically significant effects, many of which may be false positives. To mitigate this bias, we propose a framework to enable authors to report all results efficiently (RARE), with an initial focus on experimental and other prospective empirical social science research that utilizes public study registries. This framework depicts an integrated system that leverages the capacities of existing infrastructure in the form of public registries, institutional review boards, journals, and granting agencies, as well as investigators themselves, to efficiently incentivize full reporting and thereby, improve confidence in social science findings. In addition to increasing access to the results of scientific endeavors, a well-coordinated research ecosystem can prevent scholars from wasting time investigating the same questions in ways that have not worked in the past and reduce wasted funds on the part of granting agencies.

Empirical audit and review and an assessment of evidentiary value in research on the psychological consequences of scarcity.

Empirical audit and review is an approach to assessing the evidentiary value of a research area. It involves identifying a topic and selecting a cross-section of studies for replication. We apply the method to research on the psychological consequences of scarcity. Starting with the papers citing a seminal publication in the field, we conducted replications of 20 studies that evaluate the role of scarcity priming in pain sensitivity, resource allocation, materialism, and many other domains. There was considerable variability in the replicability, with some strong successes and other undeniable failures. Empirical audit and review does not attempt to assign an overall replication rate for a heterogeneous field, but rather facilitates researchers seeking to incorporate strength of evidence as they refine theories and plan new investigations in the research area. This method allows for an integration of qualitative and quantitative approaches to review and enables the growth of a cumulative science.

The Belief in a Favorable Future.

People believe that future others' preferences and beliefs will change to align with their own. People holding a particular view (e.g., support of President Trump) are more likely to believe that future others will share their view than to believe that future others will have an opposing view (e.g., opposition to President Trump). Six studies demonstrated this belief in a favorable future (BFF) for political views, scientific beliefs, and entertainment and product preferences. BFF is greater in magnitude than the tendency to believe that current others share one's views (false-consensus effect), arises across cultures, is distinct from general optimism, is strongest when people perceive their views as being objective rather than subjective, and can affect (but is distinct from) beliefs about favorable future policy changes. A lab experiment involving monetary bets on the future popularity of politicians and a field experiment involving political donations ( N = 660,542) demonstrated that BFF can influence people's behavior today.

Leaders' use of moral justifications increases policy support.

Leaders must choose how to justify their organization's actions to stakeholders. We differentiate moral frames, or justifications based on moral values, from pragmatic frames, or justifications based on practical costs and benefits. In Experiments 1a and 1b, we found that moral policy frames elicited more support than pragmatic frames across a variety of scenarios. This effect was mediated by the perception that leaders who offer moral justifications possess relatively greater moral character. In Experiment 2, we found that perceptions of a leader's private motives had a stronger influence on policy support than did the leader's public stance. Experiment 3 demonstrated that, irrespective of how a policy was framed, people were most supportive of a policy championed by a leader high in moral character. In Experiment 4, we documented an additional benefit of moral policy frames: They allow leaders to mitigate the moral outrage generated by reneging on a policy.

Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament.

Five university-based research groups competed to recruit forecasters, elicit their predictions, and aggregate those predictions to assign the most accurate probabilities to events in a 2-year geopolitical forecasting tournament. Our group tested and found support for three psychological drivers of accuracy: training, teaming, and tracking. Probability training corrected cognitive biases, encouraged forecasters to use reference classes, and provided forecasters with heuristics, such as averaging when multiple estimates were available. Teaming allowed forecasters to share information and discuss the rationales behind their beliefs. Tracking placed the highest performers (top 2% from Year 1) in elite teams that worked together. Results showed that probability training, team collaboration, and tracking improved both calibration and resolution. Forecasting is often viewed as a statistical problem, but forecasts can be improved with behavioral interventions. Training, teaming, and tracking are psychological interventions that dramatically increased the accuracy of forecasts. Statistical algorithms (reported elsewhere) improved the accuracy of the aggregation. Putting both statistics and psychology to work produced the best forecasts 2 years in a row.

A behavioral demonstration of overconfidence in judgment.

Overprecision-an excessive confidence that one knows the truth-is both the most durable and the least understood form of overconfidence. This article outlines an approach to the study of overprecision that avoids some of the methodological problems of other approaches and better reflects the way uncertainty affects choices in everyday life. We measured the precision in judgment implied by people's tendency to adjust their point estimates of an uncertain quantity in response to the costs of overestimating or underestimating the correct answer. The results revealed robust overprecision. People adjusted their estimates less than they should have given their actual knowledge, and this effect was driven by their subjective confidence.

Overprecision is a property of thinking systems.

Overprecision is the excessive certainty in the accuracy of one's judgment. This article proposes a new theory to explain it. The theory holds that overprecision in judgment results from neglect of all the ways in which one could be wrong. When there are many ways to be wrong, it can be difficult to consider them all. Overprecision is the result of being wrong and not knowing it. This explanation can account for why question formats have such a dramatic influence on the degree of overprecision people report. It also explains the ubiquity of overprecision not only among people but also among artificially intelligent agents. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Intradural cervical herniated nucleus pulposus presentation and management: a case report.

Background: Intradural disc herniations (IDH) are uncommon and can be found in the cervical spine. It is commonly associated with Brown-Sequard syndrome (BSS). The case report describes cervical spine magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings that assists in identifying IDH pre-operatively and discusses surgical management. Case Description: This is a case report regarding a 42-year-old obese male who developed atraumatic spontaneous bilateral upper extremity numbness, right upper extremity weakness and right lower extremity weakness. MRI showed a C6-7 herniated nucleus pulposus that focally protruded through the posterior longitudinal ligament with a beak-like projection similar to what has been described in previous reports. Clinical exam revealed an incomplete spinal cord injury (SCI) most consistent with BSS. He underwent anterior cervical discectomy and fusion at the level of C6-7. Intra-operatively, a disc fragment was found to be embedded in the dura. Three months post-operatively, the patient had persistent weakness in his right lower extremity but no longer had any bilateral upper extremity weakness. Conclusions: An anterior cervical decompression and fusion was performed shortly after the patient presented, with adequate neurological recovery after 3 months. Advanced imaging with an MRI could lead to the diagnosis of an IDH and surgical intervention via the anterior approach could facilitate removal of the disc and adequate dura repair.

Competencies for the Use of Artificial Intelligence-Based Tools by Health Care Professionals.

PURPOSE: The expanded use of clinical tools that incorporate artificial intelligence (AI) methods has generated calls for specific competencies for effective and ethical use. This qualitative study used expert interviews to define AI-related clinical competencies for health care professionals. METHOD: In 2021, a multidisciplinary team interviewed 15 experts in the use of AI-based tools in health care settings about the clinical competencies health care professionals need to work effectively with such tools. Transcripts of the semistructured interviews were coded and thematically analyzed. Draft competency statements were developed and provided to the experts for feedback. The competencies were finalized using a consensus process across the research team. RESULTS: Six competency domain statements and 25 subcompetencies were formulated from the thematic analysis. The competency domain statements are: (1) basic knowledge of AI: explain what AI is and describe its health care applications; (2) social and ethical implications of AI: explain how social, economic, and political systems influence AI-based tools and how these relationships impact justice, equity, and ethics; (3) AI-enhanced clinical encounters: carry out AI-enhanced clinical encounters that integrate diverse sources of information in creating patient-centered care plans; (4) evidence-based evaluation of AI-based tools: evaluate the quality, accuracy, safety, contextual appropriateness, and biases of AI-based tools and their underlying data sets in providing care to patients and populations; (5) workflow analysis for AI-based tools: analyze and adapt to changes in teams, roles, responsibilities, and workflows resulting from implementation of AI-based tools; and (6) practice-based learning and improvement regarding AI-based tools: participate in continuing professional development and practice-based improvement activities related to use of AI tools in health care. CONCLUSIONS: The 6 clinical competencies identified can be used to guide future teaching and learning programs to maximize the potential benefits of AI-based tools and diminish potential harms.

Differences in evaluation and management coding of outpatient clinic visits for patients undergoing elective spine surgery with use of a standardized template.

Background: In a large teaching institution with providers of various levels of training and backgrounds, and a coding department responsible for all evaluation and management (E&M) billing, variations in documentation can hinder accurate medical management and compensation. The purpose of this study is to assess differences in re-imbursement between templated and non-templated outpatient documentation for patients who eventually underwent single level lumbar microdiscectomy and anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF) both before and after the E&M billing changes were implemented in 2021. Methods: Data was collected from three spine surgeons on 41 patients who underwent a single level lumbar microdiscectomy at a tertiary care center from July 2018 to June 2019 and 35 patients seen by four spine surgeons from January through December of 2021 given the new E&M billing changes. ACDF data was collected for 52 patients between 2018 and 2019 for three spine surgeons and 30 patients from January through December of 2021 from four spine surgeons. Billing level was decided by independent coders for preoperative visits. Results: During the study period from 2018-2019 for lumbar microdiscectomy, each surgeon averaged about 14 patients. Results showed variability of billing level between the three spine surgeons (surgeon 1, 3.2±0.4; surgeon 2, 3.5±0.6; and surgeon 3, 2.9±0.8). Interestingly, even after the implementation of the 2021 E&M billing changes, there was a statistically significant increased level of billing for templated notes for lumbar microdiscectomy (P=0.013). However, this did not translate to the clinic visits for patients who underwent ACDF in 2021. When data was aggregated for all the patients from 2021 who either underwent lumbar microdiscectomy or ACDF, using a template still resulted in a statistically significant higher level of billing (P<0.05). Conclusions: Utilization of templates for clinical documentation reduces variability in billing codes. This impacts subsequent reimbursements and potentially prevents significant financial losses at large tertiary care facilities.

Thoracic and lumbar spine trauma classification systems fail to predict post-traumatic kyphotic deformity.

Background: Post-traumatic kyphosis of the thoracic and lumbar spine can lead to pain and decreased function. MRI has been advocated to assess ligament integrity and risk of kyphosis. Methods: All thoracic and lumbar spine MRI performed for evaluation of trauma over a 3-year period at a single institution were reviewed. Patients were included if there was an MRI showing a vertebral body fracture and follow-up radiographs. Two observers retrospectively reviewed all radiographs, CT and MRI scans, and classified injuries based on the Denis, TLICS, AO and load sharing classification systems. Change in kyphosis between injury and follow-up studies was measured. The initial radiology reports made at time of patient injury were compared to the retrospective interpretations. Results: There were 67 separate injuries in 62 patients. Kyphosis measuring ≥ 10° developed despite an intact PLC in 6/14 nonoperative cases, and 3/7 surgically treated cases; when PLC was partially injured, it developed in 6/10 cases (8 treated nonoperatively, 2 treated operatively. Thirty injuries had complete disruption of PLC by MRI, 24 treated with fusion. Kyphosis ≥ 10° developed in 3/6 treated nonoperatively, and 8/24 treated with fusion. Development of kyphosis was independent of degree of vertebral body comminution. It developed equally in patients with Grade 2 and Grade 3 Denis injuries. It developed in patients with intact PLC when multiple vertebrae were involved and/or there was compressive injury to anterior longitudinal ligament (ALL). There was high interobserver variability in assessment of severity of ligamentous injury on MRI. Conclusions: Classification systems of thoracic and lumbar spine injury and integrity of the PLC failed to predict the risk of development of post-traumatic kyphotic deformity.

Epidemiology of Work-Related Neck Pain Among Spine Surgeons.

STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate work-related neck pain among AO spine surgeons in different regions by estimating its prevalence, predictors, consequences, and management methods. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of 411 spine surgeon members of AO spine was conducted during March-May 2021, using the Modified Nordic Questionnaire and the Neck Disability Index. Data on neck pain experience during the last 12 months and its consequences and risk factors were collected. Logistic regression analysis was done to identify significant predictors of neck pain. Significance was set at P < .05. RESULTS: The 1-year neck pain was experienced by 66.7% of surgeons. According to the Neck Disability Index, more than one-half (52.8%) experienced disability due to neck pain of mild (45.5%), moderate (6.5%), and severe (.8%) grades. Neck pain was responsible for stopping work in 17.5% of surgeons, with a median of 3.5 (IQR, 2-7.8) days off work. One-half of the participants (56.3%) were treated by medical care, 31.5% by physiotherapy, and 16.5% requested rest days and sick leave. Physical stress (P < .001) and non-exercising (P = .04) were the significant predictors of neck pain. CONCLUSION: The 12-month prevalence of neck pain was high among spine surgeons, with an impact on activities of daily living, mainly of a mild degree, reported by one-half of surgeons. Physical stress was the only significant predictor, while sports practice was a protective factor against neck pain. Medication was the primary management adopted-an increased focus on pain prevention through improved workplace ergonomics and sports activity programs is recommended.

Considering Clinician Competencies for the Implementation of Artificial Intelligence-Based Tools in Health Care: Findings From a Scoping Review.

BACKGROUND: The use of artificial intelligence (AI)-based tools in the care of individual patients and patient populations is rapidly expanding. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper is to systematically identify research on provider competencies needed for the use of AI in clinical settings. METHODS: A scoping review was conducted to identify articles published between January 1, 2009, and May 1, 2020, from MEDLINE, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Library databases, using search queries for terms related to health care professionals (eg, medical, nursing, and pharmacy) and their professional development in all phases of clinical education, AI-based tools in all settings of clinical practice, and professional education domains of competencies and performance. Limits were provided for English language, studies on humans with abstracts, and settings in the United States. RESULTS: The searches identified 3476 records, of which 4 met the inclusion criteria. These studies described the use of AI in clinical practice and measured at least one aspect of clinician competence. While many studies measured the performance of the AI-based tool, only 4 measured clinician performance in terms of the knowledge, skills, or attitudes needed to understand and effectively use the new tools being tested. These 4 articles primarily focused on the ability of AI to enhance patient care and clinical decision-making by improving information flow and display, specifically for physicians. CONCLUSIONS: While many research studies were identified that investigate the potential effectiveness of using AI technologies in health care, very few address specific competencies that are needed by clinicians to use them effectively. This highlights a critical gap.

Effect of Smartphone App-Based Education on Clinician Prescribing Habits in a Learning Health Care System: A Randomized Cluster Crossover Trial.

Importance: Effective methods for engaging clinicians in continuing education for learning-based practice improvement remain unknown. Objective: To determine whether a smartphone-based app using spaced education with retrieval practice is an effective method to increase evidence-based practice. Design, Setting, and Participants: A prospective, unblinded, single-center, crossover randomized clinical trial was conducted at a single academic medical center from January 6 to April 24, 2020. Vanderbilt University Medical Center clinicians prescribing intravenous fluids were invited to participate in this study. Interventions: All clinicians received two 4-week education modules: 1 on prescribing intravenous fluids and 1 on prescribing opioid and nonopioid medications (counterbalancing measure), over a 12-week period. The order of delivery was randomized 1:1 such that 1 group received the fluid management module first, followed by the pain management module after a 4-week break, and the other group received the pain management module first, followed by the fluid management module after a 4-week break. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was evidence-based clinician prescribing behavior concerning intravenous fluids in the inpatient setting and pain medication prescribing on discharge from the hospital. Results: A total of 354 participants were enrolled and randomized, with 177 in group 1 (fluid then pain management education) and 177 in group 2 (pain management then fluid education). During the overall study period, 16 868 questions were sent to 349 learners, with 11 783 (70.0%) being opened: 10 885 (92.4%) of those opened were answered and 7175 (65.9%) of those answered were answered correctly. The differences between groups changed significantly over time, indicated by the significant interaction between educational intervention and time (P = .002). Briefly, at baseline evidence-concordant IV fluid ordered 7.2% less frequently in group 1 than group 2 (95% CI, -19.2% to 4.9%). This was reversed after training at 4% higher (95% CI, -8.2% to 16.0%) in group 1 than group 2, a more than doubling in the odds of evidence-concordant ordering (OR, 2.56, 95% CI, 0.80-8.21). Postintervention, all gains had been reversed with less frequent ordering in group 1 than group 2 (-9.5%, 95% CI, -21.6% to 2.7%). There was no measurable change in opioid prescribing behaviors at any time point. Conclusions and Relevance: In this randomized clinical trial, use of smartphone app learning modules resulted in statistically significant short-term improvement in some prescribing behaviors. However, this effect was not sustained over the long-term. Additional research is needed to understand how to sustain improvements in care delivery as a result of continuous professional development at the institutional level. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03771482.

The social transmission of overconfidence.

We propose and test the overconfidence transmission hypothesis, which predicts that individuals calibrate their self-assessments in response to the confidence others display in their social group. Six studies that deploy a mix of correlational and experimental methods support this hypothesis. Evidence indicates that individuals randomly assigned to collaborate in laboratory dyads converged on levels of overconfidence about their own performance rankings. In a controlled experimental context, observing overconfident peers causally increased an individual's degree of bias. The transmission effect persisted over time and across task domains, elevating overconfidence even days after initial exposure. In addition, overconfidence spread across indirect social ties (person to person to person), and transmission operated outside of reported awareness. However, individuals showed a selective in-group bias; overconfidence was acquired only when displayed by a member of one's in-group (and not out-group), consistent with theoretical notions of selective learning bias. Combined, these results advance understanding of the social factors that underlie interindividual differences in overconfidence and suggest that social transmission processes may be in part responsible for why local confidence norms emerge in groups, teams, and organizations. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Embedding Learning in a Learning Health Care System to Improve Clinical Practice.

PROBLEM: In an ideal learning health care system (LHS), clinicians learn from what they do and do what they learn, closing the evidence-to-practice gap. In operationalizing an LHS, great strides have been made in knowledge generation. Yet, considerable challenges remain to the broad uptake of identified best practices. To bridge the gap from generating actionable knowledge to applying that knowledge in clinical practice, and ultimately to improving outcomes, new information must be disseminated to and implemented by frontline clinicians. To date, the dissemination of this knowledge through traditional avenues has not achieved meaningful practice change quickly. APPROACH: Vanderbilt University Medical Center (VUMC) developed QuizTime, a smartphone application learning platform, to provide a mechanism for embedding workplace-based clinician learning in the LHS. QuizTime leverages spaced education and retrieval-based practice to facilitate practice change. Beginning in January 2020, clinician-researchers and educators at VUMC designed a randomized, controlled trial to test whether the QuizTime learning system influenced clinician behavior in the context of recent evidence supporting the use of balanced crystalloids rather than saline for intravenous fluid management and new regulations around opioid prescribing. OUTCOMES: Whether spaced education and retrieval-based practice influence clinician behavior and patient outcomes at the VUMC system level will be tested using the data currently being collected. NEXT STEPS: These findings will inform future directions for developing and deploying learning approaches at scale in an LHS, with the goal of closing the evidence-to-practice gap.

Overprecision increases subsequent surprise.

Overconfident people should be surprised that they are so often wrong. Are they? Three studies examined the relationship between confidence and surprise in order to shed light on the psychology of overprecision in judgment. Participants reported ex-ante confidence in their beliefs, and after receiving accuracy feedback, they then reported ex-post surprise. Results show that more ex-ante confidence produces less ex-post surprise for correct answers; this relationship reverses for incorrect answers. However, this sensible pattern only holds for some measures of confidence; it fails for confidence-interval measures. The results can help explain the robust durability of overprecision in judgment.

Surgical Outcomes in Patients with Congenital Cervical Spinal Stenosis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the differences in surgical outcomes of patients with cervical spondylotic myelopathy with and without congenital cervical spinal stenosis (CCSS). METHODS: Institutional review board approval was obtained to conduct a retrospective chart review of patients with cervical spondylotic myelopathy who underwent decompression and fusion surgeries from 2010-2016 at a single institution. CCSS was identified using the Torg-Pavlov ratio on lateral cervical radiographs. Pre- and postoperative outcome measures were assessed using the modified Japanese Orthopedic Association (mJOA) and the EuroQol 5-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D). RESULTS: Of 208 patients, Torg-Pavlov ratio identified 85 patients with CCSS. There were no significant differences between the CCSS patient and control patient groups in EuroQol 5-dimension questionnaire and mJOA scores at all 4 designated time points in the study (preoperative, earliest postoperative, 6 month postoperative, and 1 year postoperative). Although not statistically significantly, there was a notable trend for patients with CCSS to be less likely to have mJOA-defined severe myelopathy at the postoperative (odds ratio [OR], 0.75; P = 0.38), 6 month postoperative (OR, 0.66; P = 0.20), and 1 year postoperative (OR, 0.64; P = 0.14) time points. CONCLUSIONS: Postoperatively, compared with non-CCSS patients, patients with congenital cervical stenosis reported equal quality of life for all markers. Our findings suggest that in patients with CCSS and relatively mild symptoms of myelopathy, equal consideration should be given for surgical intervention. The findings of this study warrant further large-scale, multi-institutional investigation to further understand the generalizability of these surgical outcome results.