Development of a hypoglycaemia risk score to identify high-risk individuals with advanced type 2 diabetes in DEVOTE.

AIMS: The ability to differentiate patient populations with type 2 diabetes at high risk of severe hypoglycaemia could impact clinical decision making. The aim of this study was to develop a risk score, using patient characteristics, that could differentiate between populations with higher and lower 2-year risk of severe hypoglycaemia among individuals at increased risk of cardiovascular disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two models were developed for the risk score based on data from the DEVOTE cardiovascular outcomes trials. The first, a data-driven machine-learning model, used stepwise regression with bidirectional elimination to identify risk factors for severe hypoglycaemia. The second, a risk score based on known clinical risk factors accessible in clinical practice identified from the data-driven model, included: insulin treatment regimen; diabetes duration; sex; age; and glycated haemoglobin, all at baseline. Both the data-driven model and simple risk score were evaluated for discrimination, calibration and generalizability using data from DEVOTE, and were validated against the external LEADER cardiovascular outcomes trial dataset. RESULTS: Both the data-driven model and the simple risk score discriminated between patients at higher and lower hypoglycaemia risk, and performed similarly well based on the time-dependent area under the curve index (0.63 and 0.66, respectively) over a 2-year time horizon. CONCLUSIONS: Both the data-driven model and the simple hypoglycaemia risk score were able to discriminate between patients at higher and lower risk of severe hypoglycaemia, the latter doing so using easily accessible clinical data. The implementation of such a tool (http://www.hyporiskscore.com/) may facilitate improved recognition of, and education about, severe hypoglycaemia risk, potentially improving patient care.

Risk of severe hypoglycaemia and its impact in type 2 diabetes in DEVOTE.

AIMS: To undertake a post-hoc analysis, utilizing a hypoglycaemia risk score based on DEVOTE trial data, to investigate if a high risk of severe hypoglycaemia was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events, and whether reduced rates of severe hypoglycaemia in patients identified as having the highest risk affected the risk of cardiovascular outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The DEVOTE population was divided into quartiles according to patients' individual hypoglycaemia risk scores. For each quartile, the observed incidence and rate of severe hypoglycaemia, major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) and all-cause mortality were determined to investigate whether those with the highest risk of hypoglycaemia were also at the greatest risk of MACE and all-cause mortality. In addition, treatment differences within each risk quartile [insulin degludec (degludec) vs. insulin glargine 100 units/mL (glargine U100)] in terms of severe hypoglycaemia, MACE and all-cause mortality were investigated. RESULTS: Patients with the highest risk scores had the highest rates of severe hypoglycaemia, MACE and all-cause mortality. Treatment ratios between degludec and glargine U100 in the highest risk quartile were 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 (0.39; 0.80) (severe hypoglycaemia), 95% CI 0.76 (0.58; 0.99) (MACE) and 95% CI 0.77 (0.55; 1.07) (all-cause mortality). CONCLUSIONS: The risk score demonstrated that a high risk of severe hypoglycaemia was associated with a high incidence of MACE and all-cause mortality and that, in this high-risk group, those treated with degludec had a lower incidence of MACE. These observations support the hypothesis that hypoglycaemia is a risk factor for cardiovascular events.

Cardiovascular safety and lower severe hypoglycaemia of insulin degludec versus insulin glargine U100 in patients with type 2 diabetes aged 65 years or older: Results from DEVOTE (DEVOTE 7).

AIMS: The aim of this study was to describe the risks of cardiovascular (CV) events and severe hypoglycaemia with insulin degludec (degludec) vs insulin glargine 100 units/mL (glargine U100) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) aged 65 years or older. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 7637 patients in the DEVOTE trial, a treat-to-target, randomized, double-blind trial evaluating the CV safety of degludec vs glargine U100, were divided into three age groups (50-64 years, n = 3682; 65-74 years, n = 3136; ≥75 years, n = 819). Outcomes by overall age group and randomized treatment differences were analysed for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), all-cause mortality, severe hypoglycaemia and serious adverse events (SAEs). RESULTS: Patients with increasing age had higher risks of CV death, all-cause mortality and SAEs, and there were non-significant trends towards higher risks of MACE and severe hypoglycaemia. Treatment effects on the risk of MACE, all-cause mortality, severe hypoglycaemia and SAEs were consistent across age groups, based on the non-significant interactions between treatment and age with regard to these outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: There were higher risks of CV death, all-cause mortality and SAEs, and trends towards higher risks of MACE and severe hypoglycaemia with increasing age after adjusting for baseline differences. The effects across age groups of degludec vs glargine U100 on MACE, all-cause mortality and severe hypoglycaemia were comparable, suggesting that the risk of MACE, as well as all-cause mortality, is similar and the risk of severe hypoglycaemia is lower with degludec regardless of age. Evidence is conclusive only until 74 years of age.

Lower rates of cardiovascular events and mortality associated with liraglutide use in patients treated with basal insulin: A DEVOTE subanalysis (DEVOTE 10).

AIM: To compare the associations between concomitant liraglutide use versus no liraglutide use and the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality among patients receiving basal insulin (either insulin degludec [degludec] or insulin glargine 100 units/mL [glargine U100]) in the Trial Comparing Cardiovascular Safety of Insulin Degludec versus Insulin Glargine in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes at High Risk of Cardiovascular Events (DEVOTE). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk were randomized 1:1 to degludec or glargine U100. Hazard ratios for MACE/mortality were calculated using a Cox regression model adjusted for treatment and time-varying liraglutide use at any time during the trial, without interaction. Sensitivity analyses were adjusted for baseline covariates including, but not limited to, age, sex, smoking and prior cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: At baseline, 436/7637 (5.7%) patients were treated with liraglutide; after baseline, 187/7637 (2.4%) started and 210/7637 (2.7%) stopped liraglutide. Mean liraglutide exposure from randomization was 530.2 days. Liraglutide use versus no liraglutide use was associated with significantly lower hazard rates for MACE [0.62 (0.41; 0.92)95%CI ] and all-cause mortality [0.50 (0.29; 0.88)95%CI ]. There was no significant difference in the rate of severe hypoglycaemia with versus without liraglutide use. Multiple sensitivity analyses yielded similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Use of liraglutide was associated with significantly lower risk of MACE and death in patients with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk using basal insulin.

Design of the liraglutide effect and action in diabetes: evaluation of cardiovascular outcome results (LEADER) trial.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is a multisystem disorder associated with a nearly twofold excess risk for a broad range of adverse cardiovascular outcomes including coronary heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular death. Liraglutide is a human glucagon-like peptide receptor analog approved for use in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). STUDY DESIGN: To formally assess the cardiovascular safety of liraglutide, the Liraglutide Effect and Action in Diabetes: Evaluation of cardiovascular outcome Results (LEADER) trial was commenced in 2010. LEADER is a phase 3B, multicenter, international, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial with long-term follow-up. Patients with T2DM at high risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) who were either drug naive or treated with oral antihyperglycemic agents or selected insulin regimens (human NPH, long-acting analog, or premixed) alone or in combination with oral antihyperglycemics were eligible for inclusion. Randomized patients are being followed for up to 5 years. The primary end point is the time from randomization to a composite outcome consisting of the first occurrence of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. CONCLUSIONS: LEADER commenced in September 2010, and enrollment concluded in April 2012. There were 9,340 patients enrolled at 410 sites in 32 countries. The mean age of patients was 64.3 ± 7.2 years, 64.3% were men, and mean body mass index was 32.5 ± 6.3 kg/m2. There were 7,592 (81.3%) patients with prior CVD and 1,748 (18.7%) who were high risk but without prior CVD. It is expected that LEADER will provide conclusive data regarding the cardiovascular safety of liraglutide relative to the current standard of usual care for a global population of patients with T2DM.

Redefining Hypoglycemia in Clinical Trials: Validation of Definitions Recently Adopted by the American Diabetes Association/European Association for the Study of Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if the International Hypoglycaemia Study Group (IHSG) level 2 low glucose definition can identify clinically relevant hypoglycemia in clinical trials and offer value as an end point for future trials. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A post hoc analysis was performed of the SWITCH (SWITCH 1: n = 501, type 1 diabetes; SWITCH 2: n = 721, type 2 diabetes) and DEVOTE (n = 7,637, type 2 diabetes) trials utilizing the IHSG low glucose definitions. Patients in all trials were randomized to either insulin degludec or insulin glargine 100 units/mL. In the main analysis, the following definitions were compared: 1) American Diabetes Association (ADA) 2005 (plasma glucose [PG] confirmed ≤3.9 mmol/L with symptoms); and 2) IHSG level 2 (PG confirmed <3.0 mmol/L, independent of symptoms). RESULTS: In SWITCH 2, the estimated rate ratios of hypoglycemic events indicated increasing differences between treatments with decreasing PG levels until 3.0 mmol/L, following which no additional treatment differences were observed. Similar results were observed for the SWITCH 1 trial. In SWITCH 2, the IHSG level 2 definition produced a rate ratio that was lower than the ADA 2005 definition. CONCLUSIONS: The IHSG level 2 definition was validated in a series of clinical trials, demonstrating its ability to discriminate between basal insulins. This definition is therefore recommended to be uniformly adopted by regulatory bodies and used in future clinical trials.

Developing, Planning and Conducting an Interim Analysis: Lessons From the DEVOTE Cardiovascular Outcomes Trial (Trial Comparing Cardiovascular Safety of Insulin Degludec Versus Insulin Glargine in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes at High Risk of Cardiovascular Events).

BACKGROUND: In 2013, a randomized, double-blind, active comparator-controlled, event-driven cardiovascular outcomes trial (DEVOTE) was initiated to compare the cardiovascular safety of insulin degludec (degludec) versus insulin glargine 100 units/mL (glargine U100) in patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk of cardiovascular events. The FDA agreed that an interim analysis could form the basis for an early regulatory approval. We report here the operational model developed to support the DEVOTE interim analysis and the results. METHODS: The interim analysis model was designed to reduce the risk of any confidentiality breaches. The Data Access Management Plan comprehensively described the interim analysis operational processes and procedures to maintain the integrity of the ongoing trial while the interim analysis was conducted, submitted, and acted upon by the FDA, and also until completion of the full trial. Most importantly, those who were unblinded to the interim results were limited to a team of 14 members. RESULTS: A total of 150 first major adverse cardiovascular events were recorded at cut-off for the interim analysis. The estimated hazard ratio was 0.92 (95% CI 0.67, 1.27) and non-inferiority to glargine U100 was confirmed as the upper bound of the confidence interval was below 1.8, as prespecified. Based on these results, the FDA approved the use of degludec and degludec/insulin aspart (IDegAsp) in the United States in 2015 before trial completion. CONCLUSIONS: The DEVOTE interim analysis succeeded as a model by which to conduct an interim analysis and submit confidential data for regulatory review and action while continuing the trial to address a primary hypothesis.

Improvement in highly active antiretroviral therapy-induced metabolic syndrome by treatment with pioglitazone but not with fenofibrate: a 2 x 2 factorial, randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial.

We designed a 2 x 2 factorial, randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the effects of treatment with pioglitazone and/or fenofibrate in patients with highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART)-induced metabolic syndrome. We found that the administration of pioglitazone, but not fenofibrate, improved insulin resistance, blood pressure, and lipid profile over a 12-month period.

Insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus: is there a therapeutic role for IGF-1?

Severe insulin resistance represents a heterogeneous set of conditions with diverse underlying pathophysiology and limited therapeutic options. While recent studies have identified some of the molecular mechanisms resulting in extreme insulin resistance in peripheral tissues and liver, these studies have resulted in relatively few advances in therapy. Insulin like-growth factor 1 (IGF-1) lowers blood glucose while at the same time lowering serum insulin levels in normal volunteers. Its mechanism of action appears to be independent of activation of the insulin receptor although the role of IGF-1 in normal carbohydrate metabolism remains incompletely defined. IGF-1 also improves insulin resistance both in type 2 diabetes and in subjects with more severe insulin resistance. Small-scale clinical trials have demonstrated the potential utility of rhIGF-1 in selected cases of severe insulin resistance and, in these cases, the risk-benefit ratio appears to favor the use of this drug to ameliorate biochemical abnormalities and clinical symptoms.

LEADER 3--lipase and amylase activity in subjects with type 2 diabetes: baseline data from over 9000 subjects in the LEADER Trial.

OBJECTIVES: This report from the LEADER (Liraglutide Effect and Action in Diabetes: Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcome Results) trial describes baseline lipase and amylase activity in type 2 diabetic subjects without acute pancreatitis symptoms before randomization to the glucagonlike peptide analog liraglutide or placebo. METHODS: The LEADER is an international randomized placebo-controlled trial evaluating the cardiovascular safety of liraglutide in 9340 type 2 diabetic patients at high cardiovascular risk. Fasting lipase and amylase activity was assessed at baseline, before receiving liraglutide or placebo, using a commercial assay (Roche) with upper limit of normal values of 63 U/L for lipase and 100 U/L for amylase. RESULTS: Either or both enzymes were above the upper limit of normal in 22.7% of subjects; 16.6% (n = 1540) had an elevated lipase level (including 1.2% >3-fold elevated), and 11.8% (n = 1094) had an elevated amylase level (including 0.2% >3-fold elevated). In multivariable regression models, severely reduced kidney function was associated with the largest effect on increasing activity of both. However, even among subjects with normal kidney function, 12.2% and 7.7% had elevated lipase and amylase levels. CONCLUSIONS: In this large study of type 2 diabetic patients, nearly 25% had elevated lipase or amylase levels without symptoms of acute pancreatitis. The clinician must take these data into account when evaluating abdominal symptoms in type 2 diabetic patients.

Diabetes prevention: perspectives and actions of one company.

Diabetes, particularly type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), has reached epidemic proportions in the U.S. and globally, highlighting the need for major improvements in treatment strategies for detecting, preventing, and slowing disease progression. Despite escalating treatment costs, diabetes care remains largely substandard, with hospitalizations for late-stage complications in particular placing a major burden on the healthcare system. Although considerable advances have been made in identifying the risk factors of diabetes and developing treatments, goals targeting prevention have remained elusive. Although there is currently no consensus regarding terminology among public health practitioners, the concept of prevention in terms of diabetes care runs the gamut from interventions used to avoid disease in individuals without risk factors (primordial prevention) to prevention of the consequences of established complications (quaternary prevention). Given the worldwide prevalence of diabetes, it is crucial to improve the quality of care for those diagnosed with overt diabetes, as well as those who have been identified as at risk for developing the disease. Earlier screening enables undiagnosed, asymptomatic individuals with diabetes to be identified sooner, managed more effectively, and where necessary, treated with the appropriate pharmacotherapeutic options in a timely manner. All stakeholders (including government, industry, professional, and patient groups) must partner in concert to address these vital issues so that treatment goals ultimately may be realized.

GLP-1 and calcitonin concentration in humans: lack of evidence of calcitonin release from sequential screening in over 5000 subjects with type 2 diabetes or nondiabetic obese subjects treated with the human GLP-1 analog, liraglutide.

BACKGROUND: Serum calcitonin (CT) is a well-accepted marker of C-cell proliferation, particularly in medullary thyroid carcinoma. Chronic glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist administration in rodents has been associated with increased serum CT levels and C-cell tumor formation. There are no longitudinal studies measuring CT in humans without medullary thyroid carcinoma or a family history of medullary thyroid carcinoma and no published studies on the effect of GLP-1 receptor agonists on human serum CT concentrations. AIM: The aim of the study was to determine serum CT response over time to the GLP-1 receptor agonist liraglutide in subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus or nondiabetic obese subjects. METHODS: Unstimulated serum CT concentrations were measured at 3-month intervals for no more than 2 yr in a series of trials in over 5000 subjects receiving liraglutide or control therapy. RESULTS: Basal mean CT concentrations were at the low end of normal range in all treatment groups and remained low throughout the trials. At 2 yr, estimated geometric mean values were no greater than 1.0 ng/liter, well below upper normal ranges for males and females. Proportions of subjects whose CT levels increased above a clinically relevant cutoff of 20 ng/liter were very low in all groups. There was no consistent dose or time-dependent relationship and no consistent difference between treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: These data do not support an effect of GLP-1 receptor activation on serum CT levels in humans and suggest that findings previously reported in rodents may not apply to humans. However, the long-term consequences of GLP-1 receptor agonist treatment are a subject of further studies.

Glucagon-like Peptide-1 receptor agonists activate rodent thyroid C-cells causing calcitonin release and C-cell proliferation.

Liraglutide is a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) analog developed for type 2 diabetes. Long-term liraglutide exposure in rodents was associated with thyroid C-cell hyperplasia and tumors. Here, we report data supporting a GLP-1 receptor-mediated mechanism for these changes in rodents. The GLP-1 receptor was localized to rodent C-cells. GLP-1 receptor agonists stimulated calcitonin release, up-regulation of calcitonin gene expression, and subsequently C-cell hyperplasia in rats and, to a lesser extent, in mice. In contrast, humans and/or cynomolgus monkeys had low GLP-1 receptor expression in thyroid C-cells, and GLP-1 receptor agonists did not activate adenylate cyclase or generate calcitonin release in primates. Moreover, 20 months of liraglutide treatment (at >60 times human exposure levels) did not lead to C-cell hyperplasia in monkeys. Mean calcitonin levels in patients exposed to liraglutide for 2 yr remained at the lower end of the normal range, and there was no difference in the proportion of patients with calcitonin levels increasing above the clinically relevant cutoff level of 20 pg/ml. Our findings delineate important species-specific differences in GLP-1 receptor expression and action in the thyroid. Nevertheless, the long-term consequences of sustained GLP-1 receptor activation in the human thyroid remain unknown and merit further investigation.

Insulin-Like Growth Factor I in Human Thyroid Tissue: Specific Localization by Immunohistochemistry and In Situ Hybridization.

Insulin-like growth factor I and II (IGF-l and IGF-ll) have been implicated in the replication of normal thyroid follicular cells in vitro. This study evaluates the distribution and abundance of immunoreactive IGF-l by histochemical analysis in human thyroid tissue with different histopathologic characteristics. We used two types of highly specific and sensitive polyclonal rabbit anti-IGF-l antibodies and one monoclonal antibody (MAb) with the immunoperoxidase technique on sections of 25 glands harboring adenomatous goiter; 11 glands with follicular adenoma (FA); 45 glands with thyroid carcinoma of papillary, follicular, and undifferentiated types; and 18 glands with Graves' disease. Immunoreactive IGF-l was present in some thyroid follicular cells of all thyroid tissues examined. The percentage of cells staining positively varies among the different processes, being lowest in normal thyroid tissues and highest in all thyroid carcinomas. The cytoplasmic pattern of IGF-l immunoreactivity also varied among the different thyroid conditions. Furthermore, using nonradioactive in situ hybridization (ISH) we detected IGF-l mRNA in the thyroid cells of adenomatous goiter. The expression was higher in the histologically hyperplastic areas. These findings provide further support for an autocrine and/or paracrine role of IGF-l in the function and/or growth of normal thyroid follicular cells and suggest that IGF-l may play a role in the dysfunctional growth of thyroid follicular cells in adenomatous goiter, thyroid carcinoma, and Graves' hyperthyroidism.