RESUMEN
Climate change (CC) is a global threat to the agricultural system. Changing climatic conditions are causing variations in temperature range, rainfall timing, humidity percentage, soil structure, and composition of gases in environment. All these factors have a great influence on the phenological events in plants' life cycle. Alternation in phenological events, especially in crops, leads to either lower yield or crop failure. In light of respective statement, the present study is designed to evaluate the climatic impacts on two heat-resistant wheat varieties (Sialkot-2008 and Punjab-2018). During the study, impacts of CC on wheat phenology and annual yield were predicted considering six climatic factors: maximum temp, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity, soil moisture content, and solar radiation using two quantitative approaches. First, a two-year field experimental plot was set up at five different sites of study-each plot a bisect of two sites. Phenological changes of both varieties were monitored with respect to climatic factors and changes were recorded in a scientific manner. Secondly, experimental results were compared with Global climate models (GMC) models with a baseline range of the past 40 years (1970-2010) and future fifty years (2019-2068) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 model analysis. Field experiment showed a (0.02) difference in maximum temperature, (0.04) in minimum temperature, (0.17) in humidity, and about (0.03) significant difference in soil moisture content during 2019-2021. Under these changing climatic parameters, a 0.21% difference was accounted in annual yield. Furthermore, the results were supported by GMC model analysis, which was analyzed by Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model. Results depicted that non-heat-resistant wheat varieties could cause up to a 6~13% reduction in yield during future 50 years (2019-2068)) compared with the last 40 years (1970-2010). A larger decline in wheat grain number relative to grain weight is a key reducer of wheat yield, under future climate change circumstances. Using heat-tolerant wheat varieties will not only assist to overcome this plethora but also provide a potential increase of up to 7% to 10% in indigenous environment. On the other hand, it was concluded that cultivating these heat-resistant varieties that are also ripening late culminates into enhanced thermal time chucks during the grain-filling period; hence, wheat yield will increase by 8% to 12%. In changing climatic conditions and varieties, 'Punjab-2018' will be the better choice for peasants and farm-land owners to obtain a better yield of wheat to cope with the necessities of food on the domestic and national level.
RESUMEN
The present study was carried out to explore and document traditional ethnobotanical knowledge of indigenous rural communities of Shiwalik mountainous range regarding tree flora of the area, District Bhimber of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan. The local people of the area primarily depend on wild flora for life sustenance and cure of different infirmities. In this research, data was collected through visual appraisal and participatory rural approach using questionnaire method by applying semi-structured and structured-interview protocols (S4 Table). To validate and explore novelty of research work, various quantitative ethnobotanical indices like informant consensus factor, use value index, fidelity level, relative frequency of citation, relative importance of plants, rank order of priority, Jaccard index and priority ranking were used. The highest ICF was found for jaundice with 0.91 value followed by ICF values of 0.89, 0.86 and 0.85 for wounds, skin diseases and stomach pains, respectively. Fidelity level predicted that Azadirachta indica (Indian lilac tree) ranked first (100%) for its prevalent use in ethnomedicines. Highest use value index (0.61) was found for Azadirachta indica while the highest relative frequency of citation (55) was measured for Melia azedarach. The relative order of priority index was the highest for Azadirachta indica and Acacia arabica L. (ROP = 100) depicting their prevalent use in ethnomedicines. For EB study, the highest relative importance (50.8) was found for Azadirachta indica with good number of agro-uses and its seeds and bark are sold or marketed in local markets to prepare herbal therapeutics by indigenous practioners. The Jaccard index depicted that many traditional ethnomedicinal uses of prescribed trees were novel in recipe form or first time reported such as Senegalia modesta (Phulai) resin was used to prepare 'Panjoori' a local tonic prepared from cow or buffalo butter mixing with seeds of Papaver somnifera (Kashkhash) and Prunus amygdalus (Badaam). The wood of many trees like Pinus roxburghii (pine), Dalbergia sissoo (rosewood), Senegalia modesta (Phulai), Acacia. Arabica (kikar), Bombax cieba (cotton tree) is commercially sold as timber in markets (S3 Table). The research proved that population explosion and climate changes have triggered severe biotic and abiotic pressure on tree flora of the study area of Bhimber, AJK. The research describes that plants like Terminalia belerica (belerica), Terminalia arjuna (arjun tree), Cassia fistula (Indian laburnum), Butea monosperma (bastard teak), Phyllanthus emblica (Indian gooseberry), Morus laevigata (Shah toot), Bauhinia variegata (orchid tree) and Flacourtia indica (Indian plum/ kakoo) are threatened species and their population is highly reduced and if reclamation measures for their conservation are not taken, it may lead towards their complete loss from the area. This research recommends sustainable ethnobotanical use of tree flora, their growth and conservation for green and ecofriendly environment for safe and secure future of human generation.