Wind prevents cliff-breeding birds from accessing nests through loss of flight control.

For fast-flying birds, the ability to respond to wind during landing is critical, as errors can lead to injury or even death. Nonetheless, landing ability, and its ecological significance, remain unstudied. We show that for auks, 60% of attempts to land at their cliff nests fail in a strong breeze (80% in near-gale winds). This is most likely because wind interferes with the ability to maintain flight control in the last phase of landing. Their extreme flight costs mean that the energetic penalty for multiple landing attempts is high. We propose that exposure, and ability to respond to, such conditions will influence the suitability of breeding habitat. In support of this (i) auk colonies appear to be orientated away from prevailing winds and (ii) landing success within colonies is higher on crowded ledges with more airspace for manoeuvring. More generally, the interplay between wind and flight capacities could impact breeding distributions across species and scales.

Luck in Food Finding Affects Individual Performance and Population Trajectories.

Energy harvesting by animals is important because it provides the power needed for all metabolic processes. Beyond this, efficient food finding enhances individual fitness [1] and population viability [2], although rates of energy accumulation are affected by the environment and food distribution. Typically, differences between individuals in the rate of food acquisition are attributed to varying competencies [3], even though food-encounter rates are known to be probabilistic [4]. We used animal-attached technology to quantify food intake in four disparate free-living vertebrates (condors, cheetahs, penguins, and sheep) and found that inter-individual variability depended critically on the probability of food encounter. We modeled this to reveal that animals taking rarer food, such as apex predators and scavengers, are particularly susceptible to breeding failure because this variability results in larger proportions of the population failing to accrue the necessary resources for their young before they starve and because even small changes in food abundance can affect this variability disproportionately. A test of our model on wild animals indicated why Magellanic penguins have a stable population while the congeneric African penguin population has declined for decades. We suggest that such models predicting probabilistic ruin can help predict the fortunes of species operating under globally changing conditions.