Randomized Trial of Vaccines for Zaire Ebola Virus Disease.

BACKGROUND: Questions remain concerning the rapidity of immune responses and the durability and safety of vaccines used to prevent Zaire Ebola virus disease. METHODS: We conducted two randomized, placebo-controlled trials - one involving adults and one involving children - to evaluate the safety and immune responses of three vaccine regimens against Zaire Ebola virus disease: Ad26.ZEBOV followed by MVA-BN-Filo 56 days later (the Ad26-MVA group), rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP followed by placebo 56 days later (the rVSV group), and rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP followed by rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP 56 days later (the rVSV-booster group). The primary end point was antibody response at 12 months, defined as having both a 12-month antibody concentration of at least 200 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay units (EU) per milliliter and an increase from baseline in the antibody concentration by at least a factor of 4. RESULTS: A total of 1400 adults and 1401 children underwent randomization. Among both adults and children, the incidence of injection-site reactions and symptoms (e.g., feverishness and headache) was higher in the week after receipt of the primary and second or booster vaccinations than after receipt of placebo but not at later time points. These events were largely low-grade. At month 12, a total of 41% of adults (titer, 401 EU per milliliter) and 78% of children (titer, 828 EU per milliliter) had a response in the Ad26-MVA group; 76% (titer, 992 EU per milliliter) and 87% (titer, 1415 EU per milliliter), respectively, had a response in the rVSV group; 81% (titer, 1037 EU per milliliter) and 93% (titer, 1745 EU per milliliter), respectively, had a response in the rVSV-booster group; and 3% (titer, 93 EU per milliliter) and 4% (titer, 67 EU per milliliter), respectively, had a response in the placebo group (P<0.001 for all comparisons of vaccine with placebo). In both adults and children, antibody responses with vaccine differed from those with placebo beginning on day 14. CONCLUSIONS: No safety concerns were identified in this trial. With all three vaccine regimens, immune responses were seen from day 14 through month 12. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; PREVAC ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02876328; EudraCT numbers, 2017-001798-18 and 2017-001798-18/3rd; and Pan African Clinical Trials Registry number, PACTR201712002760250.).

A Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibody for Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: LY-CoV555, a neutralizing monoclonal antibody, has been associated with a decrease in viral load and the frequency of hospitalizations or emergency department visits among outpatients with coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Data are needed on the effect of this antibody in patients who are hospitalized with Covid-19. METHODS: In this platform trial of therapeutic agents, we randomly assigned hospitalized patients who had Covid-19 without end-organ failure in a 1:1 ratio to receive either LY-CoV555 or matching placebo. In addition, all the patients received high-quality supportive care as background therapy, including the antiviral drug remdesivir and, when indicated, supplemental oxygen and glucocorticoids. LY-CoV555 (at a dose of 7000 mg) or placebo was administered as a single intravenous infusion over a 1-hour period. The primary outcome was a sustained recovery during a 90-day period, as assessed in a time-to-event analysis. An interim futility assessment was performed on the basis of a seven-category ordinal scale for pulmonary function on day 5. RESULTS: On October 26, 2020, the data and safety monitoring board recommended stopping enrollment for futility after 314 patients (163 in the LY-CoV555 group and 151 in the placebo group) had undergone randomization and infusion. The median interval since the onset of symptoms was 7 days (interquartile range, 5 to 9). At day 5, a total of 81 patients (50%) in the LY-CoV555 group and 81 (54%) in the placebo group were in one of the two most favorable categories of the pulmonary outcome. Across the seven categories, the odds ratio of being in a more favorable category in the LY-CoV555 group than in the placebo group was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.56 to 1.29; P = 0.45). The percentage of patients with the primary safety outcome (a composite of death, serious adverse events, or clinical grade 3 or 4 adverse events through day 5) was similar in the LY-CoV555 group and the placebo group (19% and 14%, respectively; odds ratio, 1.56; 95% CI, 0.78 to 3.10; P = 0.20). The rate ratio for a sustained recovery was 1.06 (95% CI, 0.77 to 1.47). CONCLUSIONS: Monoclonal antibody LY-CoV555, when coadministered with remdesivir, did not demonstrate efficacy among hospitalized patients who had Covid-19 without end-organ failure. (Funded by Operation Warp Speed and others; TICO ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04501978.).

Remdesivir for the Treatment of Covid-19 - Final Report.

BACKGROUND: Although several therapeutic agents have been evaluated for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), no antiviral agents have yet been shown to be efficacious. METHODS: We conducted a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of intravenous remdesivir in adults who were hospitalized with Covid-19 and had evidence of lower respiratory tract infection. Patients were randomly assigned to receive either remdesivir (200 mg loading dose on day 1, followed by 100 mg daily for up to 9 additional days) or placebo for up to 10 days. The primary outcome was the time to recovery, defined by either discharge from the hospital or hospitalization for infection-control purposes only. RESULTS: A total of 1062 patients underwent randomization (with 541 assigned to remdesivir and 521 to placebo). Those who received remdesivir had a median recovery time of 10 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 9 to 11), as compared with 15 days (95% CI, 13 to 18) among those who received placebo (rate ratio for recovery, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.49; P<0.001, by a log-rank test). In an analysis that used a proportional-odds model with an eight-category ordinal scale, the patients who received remdesivir were found to be more likely than those who received placebo to have clinical improvement at day 15 (odds ratio, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2 to 1.9, after adjustment for actual disease severity). The Kaplan-Meier estimates of mortality were 6.7% with remdesivir and 11.9% with placebo by day 15 and 11.4% with remdesivir and 15.2% with placebo by day 29 (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.52 to 1.03). Serious adverse events were reported in 131 of the 532 patients who received remdesivir (24.6%) and in 163 of the 516 patients who received placebo (31.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that remdesivir was superior to placebo in shortening the time to recovery in adults who were hospitalized with Covid-19 and had evidence of lower respiratory tract infection. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; ACTT-1 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04280705.).

Evaluating Primary Endpoints for COVID-19 Therapeutic Trials to Assess Recovery.

Rationale: Uncertainty regarding the natural history of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) led to difficulty in efficacy endpoint selection for therapeutic trials. Capturing outcomes that occur after hospital discharge may improve assessment of clinical recovery among hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Objectives: Evaluate 90-day clinical course of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, comparing three distinct definitions of recovery. Methods: We used pooled data from three clinical trials of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies to compare: 1) the hospital discharge approach; 2) the TICO (Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19) trials sustained recovery approach; and 3) a comprehensive approach. At the time of enrollment, all patients were hospitalized in a non-ICU setting without organ failure or major extrapulmonary manifestations of COVID-19. We defined discordance as a difference between time to recovery. Measurements and Main Results: Discordance between the hospital discharge and comprehensive approaches occurred in 170 (20%) of 850 enrolled participants, including 126 hospital readmissions and 24 deaths after initial hospital discharge. Discordant participants were older (median age, 68 vs. 59 years; P < 0.001) and more had a comorbidity (84% vs. 70%; P < 0.001). Of 170 discordant participants, 106 (62%) had postdischarge events captured by the TICO approach. Conclusions: Among patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 20% had clinically significant postdischarge events within 90 days after randomization in patients who would be considered "recovered" using the hospital discharge approach. Using the TICO approach balances length of follow-up with practical limitations. However, clinical trials of COVID-19 therapeutics should use follow-up times up to 90 days to assess clinical recovery more accurately.

The Association of Baseline Plasma SARS-CoV-2 Nucleocapsid Antigen Level and Outcomes in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Levels of plasma SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (N) antigen may be an important biomarker in patients with COVID-19 and enhance our understanding of the pathogenesis of COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether levels of plasma antigen can predict short-term clinical outcomes and identify clinical and viral factors associated with plasma antigen levels in hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study of baseline plasma antigen level from 2540 participants enrolled in the TICO (Therapeutics for Inpatients With COVID-19) platform trial from August 2020 to November 2021, with additional data on day 5 outcome and time to discharge. SETTING: 114 centers in 10 countries. PARTICIPANTS: Adults hospitalized for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection with 12 days or less of symptoms. MEASUREMENTS: Baseline plasma viral N antigen level was measured at a central laboratory. Delta variant status was determined from baseline nasal swabs using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Associations between baseline patient characteristics and viral factors and baseline plasma antigen levels were assessed using both unadjusted and multivariable modeling. Association between elevated baseline antigen level of 1000 ng/L or greater and outcomes, including worsening of ordinal pulmonary scale at day 5 and time to hospital discharge, were evaluated using logistic regression and Fine-Gray regression models, respectively. RESULTS: Plasma antigen was below the level of quantification in 5% of participants at enrollment, and 1000 ng/L or greater in 57%. Baseline pulmonary severity of illness was strongly associated with plasma antigen level, with mean plasma antigen level 3.10-fold higher among those requiring noninvasive ventilation or high-flow nasal cannula compared with room air (95% CI, 2.22 to 4.34). Plasma antigen level was higher in those who lacked antispike antibodies (6.42 fold; CI, 5.37 to 7.66) and in those with the Delta variant (1.73 fold; CI, 1.41 to 2.13). Additional factors associated with higher baseline antigen level included male sex, shorter time since hospital admission, decreased days of remdesivir, and renal impairment. In contrast, race, ethnicity, body mass index, and immunocompromising conditions were not associated with plasma antigen levels. Plasma antigen level of 1000 ng/L or greater was associated with a markedly higher odds of worsened pulmonary status at day 5 (odds ratio, 5.06 [CI, 3.41 to 7.50]) and longer time to hospital discharge (median, 7 vs. 4 days; subhazard ratio, 0.51 [CI, 0.45 to 0.57]), with subhazard ratios similar across all levels of baseline pulmonary severity. LIMITATIONS: Plasma samples were drawn at enrollment, not hospital presentation. No point-of-care test to measure plasma antigen is currently available. CONCLUSION: Elevated plasma antigen is highly associated with both severity of pulmonary illness and clinically important patient outcomes. Multiple clinical and viral factors are associated with plasma antigen level at presentation. These data support a potential role of ongoing viral replication in the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 in hospitalized patients. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. government Operation Warp Speed and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

A Longitudinal Study of Ebola Sequelae in Liberia.

BACKGROUND: Multiple health problems have been reported in survivors of Ebola virus disease (EVD). Attribution of these problems to the disease without a control group for analysis is difficult. METHODS: We enrolled a cohort of EVD survivors and their close contacts and prospectively collected data on symptoms, physical examination findings, and laboratory results. A subset of participants underwent ophthalmologic examinations. Persistence of Ebola virus (EBOV) RNA in semen samples from survivors was determined. RESULTS: A total of 966 EBOV antibody-positive survivors and 2350 antibody-negative close contacts (controls) were enrolled, and 90% of these participants were followed for 12 months. At enrollment (median time to baseline visit, 358 days after symptom onset), six symptoms were reported significantly more often among survivors than among controls: urinary frequency (14.7% vs. 3.4%), headache (47.6% vs. 35.6%), fatigue (18.4% vs. 6.3%), muscle pain (23.1% vs. 10.1%), memory loss (29.2% vs. 4.8%), and joint pain (47.5% vs. 17.5%). On examination, more survivors than controls had abnormal abdominal, chest, neurologic, and musculoskeletal findings and uveitis. Other than uveitis (prevalence at enrollment, 26.4% vs. 12.1%; at year 1, 33.3% vs. 15.4%), the prevalence of these conditions declined during follow-up in both groups. The incidence of most symptoms, neurologic findings, and uveitis was greater among survivors than among controls. EBOV RNA was detected in semen samples from 30% of the survivors tested, with a maximum time from illness to detection of 40 months. CONCLUSIONS: A relatively high burden of symptoms was seen in all participants, but certain symptoms and examination findings were more common among survivors. With the exception of uveitis, these conditions declined in prevalence during follow-up in both groups. Viral RNA in semen persisted for a maximum of 40 months. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the National Eye Institute; PREVAIL III ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02431923.).

Nonparametric estimation in an illness-death model with component-wise censoring.

In disease settings where study participants are at risk for death and a serious nonfatal event, composite endpoints defined as the time until the earliest of death or the nonfatal event are often used as the primary endpoint in clinical trials. In practice, if the nonfatal event can only be detected at clinic visits and the death time is known exactly, the resulting composite endpoint exhibits "component-wise censoring." The standard method used to estimate event-free survival in this setting fails to account for component-wise censoring. We apply a kernel smoothing method previously proposed for a marker process in a novel way to produce a nonparametric estimator for event-free survival that accounts for component-wise censoring. The key insight that allows us to apply this kernel method is thinking of nonfatal event status as an intermittently observed binary time-dependent variable rather than thinking of time to the nonfatal event as interval-censored. We also propose estimators for the probability in state and restricted mean time in state for reversible or irreversible illness-death models, under component-wise censoring, and derive their large-sample properties. We perform a simulation study to compare our method to existing multistate survival methods and apply the methods on data from a large randomized trial studying a multifactor intervention for reducing morbidity and mortality among men at above average risk of coronary heart disease.

Clostridioides difficile infection in solid organ and hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients: A prospective multinational study.

BACKGROUND: Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in recipients of solid organ transplant (SOT) or hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT). In retrospective single center analyses, severe disease and relapse are common. We undertook an international, prospective cohort study to estimate the response to physician determined antibiotic treatment for CDI in patients with SOT and HSCT. METHODS: Adults with a first episode of CDI within the first 2 years of SOT or HSCT were enrolled. Demographics, comorbidities, and medication history were collected, and over 90 days of follow-up clinical cure, recurrences, and complications were assessed. Logistic regression was used to study associations of baseline predictors of clinical cure and recurrence. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are cited. RESULTS: A total of 132 patients, 81 SOT and 51 HSCT (32 allogeneic), were enrolled with a median age of 56 years; 82 (62%) were males and 128 (97%) were hospitalized at enrollment. One hundred and six (80.3%) were diagnosed by DNA assay. CDI occurred at a median of 20 days post-transplant (interquartile range, IQR: 6-133). One hundred and eight patients (81.8%) were on proton pump inhibitors; 126 patients (95.5%) received antibiotics within the 6 weeks before CDI. The most common initial CDI treatments prescribed, on or shortly before enrollment, were oral vancomycin alone (50%) and metronidazole alone (36%). Eighty-three percent (95% CI: 76, 89) of patients had clinical cure; 18% (95% CI: 12, 27) of patients had recurrent CDI; global clinical cure occurred in 65.2%. Of the 11 patients who died, two (1.5% of total) were related to CDI. In multivariable logistic regression analyses, the type of initial treatment was associated with clinical cure (p = .009) and recurrence (p = .014). A history of cytomegalovirus (CMV) after transplant was associated with increased risk of recurrence (44% with versus 13% without CMV history; OR: 5.7, 95% CI: 1.5, 21.3; p = .01). CONCLUSIONS: Among adults who develop CDI after SOT or HSCT, despite their immunosuppressed state, the percentage with clinical cure was high and the percentage with recurrence was low. Clinical cure and recurrence varied by type of initial treatment, and CMV viremia/disease was associated with an increased risk of recurrence.

Design and implementation of an international, multi-arm, multi-stage platform master protocol for trials of novel SARS-CoV-2 antiviral agents: Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 (TICO/ACTIV-3).

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Safe and effective therapies for COVID-19 are urgently needed. In order to meet this need, the Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines public-private partnership initiated the Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19. Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 is a multi-arm, multi-stage platform master protocol, which facilitates the rapid evaluation of the safety and efficacy of novel candidate antiviral therapeutic agents for adults hospitalized with COVID-19. Five agents have so far entered the protocol, with rapid answers already provided for three of these. Other agents are expected to enter the protocol throughout 2021. This protocol contains a number of key design and implementation features that, along with challenges faced by the protocol team, are presented and discussed. METHODS: Three clinical trial networks, encompassing a global network of clinical sites, participated in the protocol development and implementation. Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 utilizes a multi-arm, multi-stage design with an agile and robust approach to futility and safety evaluation at 300 patients enrolled, with subsequent expansion to full sample size and an expanded target population if the agent shows an acceptable safety profile and evidence of efficacy. Rapid recruitment to multiple agents is enabled through the sharing of placebo, the confining of agent-specific information to protocol appendices, and modular consent forms. In collaboration with the Food and Drug Administration, a thorough safety data collection and Data and Safety Monitoring Board schedule was developed for the study of potential therapeutic agents with limited in-human data in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. RESULTS: As of 8 August 2021, five agents have entered the Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 master protocol and a total of 1909 participants have been randomized to one of these agents or matching placebo. There were a number of challenges faced by the study team that needed to be overcome in order to successfully implement Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 across a global network of sites. These included ensuring drug supply and reliable recruitment allowing for changing infection rates across the global network of sites, the need to balance the collection of data and samples without overburdening clinical staff and obtaining regulatory approvals across a global network of sites. CONCLUSION: Through a robust multi-network partnership, the Therapeutics for Inpatients with COVID-19 protocol has been successfully used across a global network of sites for rapid generation of efficacy data on multiple novel antiviral agents. The protocol design and implementation features used in this protocol, and the approaches to address challenges, will have broader applicability. Mechanisms to facilitate improved communication and harmonization among country-specific regulatory bodies are required to achieve the full potential of this approach in dealing with a global outbreak.

Human Immunotypes Impose Selection on Viral Genotypes Through Viral Epitope Specificity.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the genetic interplay between human hosts and infectious pathogens is crucial for how we interpret virulence factors. Here, we tested for associations between HIV and host genetics, and interactive genetic effects on viral load (VL) in HIV-positive antiretroviral treatment-naive clinical trial participants. METHODS: HIV genomes were sequenced and the encoded amino acid (AA) variants were associated with VL, human single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and imputed HLA alleles using generalized linear models with Bonferroni correction. RESULTS: Human (388 501 SNPs) and HIV (3010 variants) genetic data were available for 2122 persons. Four HIV variants were associated with VL (P < 1.66 × 10-5). Twelve HIV variants were associated with a range of 1-512 human SNPs (P < 4.28 × 10-11). We found 46 associations between HLA alleles and HIV variants (P < 1.29 × 10-7). HIV variants and immunotypes when analyzed separately were associated with lower VL, whereas the opposite was true when analyzed in concert. Epitope binding predictions supported our observations. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show the importance of immunotype specificity on viral antigenic determinants, and the identified genetic interplay emphasizes that viral and human genetics should be studied in the context of each other.Clinical Trials Registration: NCT00867048.

Rivaroxaban in Patients with Heart Failure, Sinus Rhythm, and Coronary Disease.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is associated with activation of thrombin-related pathways, which predicts a poor prognosis. We hypothesized that treatment with rivaroxaban, a factor Xa inhibitor, could reduce thrombin generation and improve outcomes for patients with worsening chronic heart failure and underlying coronary artery disease. METHODS: In this double-blind, randomized trial, 5022 patients who had chronic heart failure, a left ventricular ejection fraction of 40% or less, coronary artery disease, and elevated plasma concentrations of natriuretic peptides and who did not have atrial fibrillation were randomly assigned to receive rivaroxaban at a dose of 2.5 mg twice daily or placebo in addition to standard care after treatment for an episode of worsening heart failure. The primary efficacy outcome was the composite of death from any cause, myocardial infarction, or stroke. The principal safety outcome was fatal bleeding or bleeding into a critical space with a potential for causing permanent disability. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up period of 21.1 months, the primary end point occurred in 626 (25.0%) of 2507 patients assigned to rivaroxaban and in 658 (26.2%) of 2515 patients assigned to placebo (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84 to 1.05; P=0.27). No significant difference in all-cause mortality was noted between the rivaroxaban group and the placebo group (21.8% and 22.1%, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.87 to 1.10). The principal safety outcome occurred in 18 patients who took rivaroxaban and in 23 who took placebo (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.43 to 1.49; P=0.48). CONCLUSIONS: Rivaroxaban at a dose of 2.5 mg twice daily was not associated with a significantly lower rate of death, myocardial infarction, or stroke than placebo among patients with worsening chronic heart failure, reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, coronary artery disease, and no atrial fibrillation. (Funded by Janssen Research and Development; COMMANDER HF ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01877915 .).

Phase 2 Placebo-Controlled Trial of Two Vaccines to Prevent Ebola in Liberia.

BACKGROUND: The safety and efficacy of vaccines to prevent Ebola virus disease (EVD) were unknown when the incidence of EVD was peaking in Liberia. METHODS: We initiated a randomized, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial of the chimpanzee adenovirus 3 vaccine (ChAd3-EBO-Z) and the recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus vaccine (rVSV∆G-ZEBOV-GP) in Liberia. A phase 2 subtrial was embedded to evaluate safety and immunogenicity. Because the incidence of EVD declined in Liberia, the phase 2 component was expanded and the phase 3 component was eliminated. RESULTS: A total of 1500 adults underwent randomization and were followed for 12 months. The median age of the participants was 30 years; 36.6% of the participants were women. During the week after the administration of vaccine or placebo, adverse events occurred significantly more often with the active vaccines than with placebo; these events included injection-site reactions (in 28.5% of the patients in the ChAd3-EBO-Z group and 30.9% of those in the rVSV∆G-ZEBOV-GP group, as compared with 6.8% of those in the placebo group), headache (in 25.1% and 31.9%, vs. 16.9%), muscle pain (in 22.3% and 26.9%, vs. 13.3%), feverishness (in 23.9% and 30.5%, vs. 9.0%), and fatigue (in 14.0% and 15.4%, vs. 8.8%) (P<0.001 for all comparisons); these differences were not seen at 1 month. Serious adverse events within 12 months after injection were seen in 40 participants (8.0%) in the ChAd3-EBO-Z group, in 47 (9.4%) in the rVSV∆G-ZEBOV-GP group, and in 59 (11.8%) in the placebo group. By 1 month, an antibody response developed in 70.8% of the participants in the ChAd3-EBO-Z group and in 83.7% of those in the rVSV∆G-ZEBOV-GP group, as compared with 2.8% of those in the placebo group (P<0.001 for both comparisons). At 12 months, antibody responses in participants in the ChAd3-EBO-Z group (63.5%) and in those in the rVSV∆G-ZEBOV-GP group (79.5%) remained significantly greater than in those in the placebo group (6.8%, P<0.001 for both comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: A randomized, placebo-controlled phase 2 trial of two vaccines that was rapidly initiated and completed in Liberia showed the capability of conducting rigorous research during an outbreak. By 1 month after vaccination, the vaccines had elicited immune responses that were largely maintained through 12 months. (Funded by the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the Liberian Ministry of Health; PREVAIL I ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02344407 .).

The Effect of Interrupted/Deferred Antiretroviral Therapy on Disease Risk: A SMART and START Combined Analysis.

Background: Pooled data from the SMART and START trials were used to compare deferred/intermittent versus immediate/continuous antiretroviral therapy (ART) on disease risk. Methods: Endpoints assessed were AIDS, serious non-AIDS (SNA), cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and death. Pooled (stratified by study) hazard ratios (HRs) from Cox models were obtained for deferred/intermittent ART versus immediate/continuous ART; analyses were conducted to assess consistency of HRs across baseline-defined subgroups. Results: Among 10156 participants, there were 124 AIDS, 247 SNA, 117 cancers, 103 CVD, and 120 deaths. Interventions in each trial led to similar differences in CD4 count and viral suppression. Pooled HRs (95% confidence interval) of deferred/intermittent ART versus immediate/continuous ART were for AIDS 3.63 (2.37-5.56); SNA 1.62 (1.25-2.09); CVD 1.59 (1.07-2.37); cancer 1.93 (1.32-2.83); and death 1.80 (1.24-2.61). Underlying risk was greater in SMART than START. Given the similar HRs for each trial, absolute risk differences between treatment groups were greater in SMART than START. Pooled HRs were similar across subgroups. Conclusions: Treatment group differences in CD4 count and viral suppression were similar in SMART and START. Likely as a consequence, relative differences in risk of AIDS and SNA between immediate/continuous ART and deferred/intermittent ART were similar. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT00027352 and NCT00867048.

Association Between Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms in HLA Alleles and Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Viral Load in Demographically Diverse, Antiretroviral Therapy-Naive Participants From the Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment Trial.

The impact of variation in host genetics on replication of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in demographically diverse populations remains uncertain. In the current study, we performed a genome-wide screen for associations of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to viral load (VL) in antiretroviral therapy-naive participants (n = 2440) with varying demographics from the Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) trial. Associations were assessed using genotypic data generated by a customized SNP array, imputed HLA alleles, and multiple linear regression. Genome-wide significant associations between SNPs and VL were observed in the major histocompatibility complex class I region (MHC I), with effect sizes ranging between 0.14 and 0.39 log10 VL (copies/mL). Supporting the SNP findings, we identified several HLA alleles significantly associated with VL, extending prior observations that the (MHC I) is a major host determinant of HIV-1 control with shared genetic variants across diverse populations and underscoring the limitations of genome-wide association studies as being merely a screening tool.

Keeping phase III tuberculosis trials relevant: Adapting to a rapidly changing landscape.

In a Collection Review, Patrick Phillips and colleagues discuss developments in clinical trial design for the evaluation of TB therapeutics.

Effect Estimates in Randomized Trials and Observational Studies: Comparing Apples With Apples.

Effect estimates from randomized trials and observational studies might not be directly comparable because of differences in study design, other than randomization, and in data analysis. We propose a 3-step procedure to facilitate meaningful comparisons of effect estimates from randomized trials and observational studies: 1) harmonization of the study protocols (eligibility criteria, treatment strategies, outcome, start and end of follow-up, causal contrast) so that the studies target the same causal effect, 2) harmonization of the data analysis to estimate the causal effect, and 3) sensitivity analyses to investigate the impact of discrepancies that could not be accounted for in the harmonization process. To illustrate our approach, we compared estimates of the effect of immediate with deferred initiation of antiretroviral therapy in individuals positive for the human immunodeficiency virus from the Strategic Timing of Antiretroviral Therapy (START) randomized trial and the observational HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration.

A Randomized, Controlled Trial of ZMapp for Ebola Virus Infection.

BACKGROUND: Data from studies in nonhuman primates suggest that the triple monoclonal antibody cocktail ZMapp is a promising immune-based treatment for Ebola virus disease (EVD). METHODS: Beginning in March 2015, we conducted a randomized, controlled trial of ZMapp plus the current standard of care as compared with the current standard of care alone in patients with EVD that was diagnosed in West Africa by polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR) assay. Eligible patients of any age were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive either the current standard of care or the current standard of care plus three intravenous infusions of ZMapp (50 mg per kilogram of body weight, administered every third day). Patients were stratified according to baseline PCR cycle-threshold value for the virus (≤22 vs. >22) and country of enrollment. Oral favipiravir was part of the current standard of care in Guinea. The primary end point was mortality at 28 days. RESULTS: A total of 72 patients were enrolled at sites in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, and the United States. Of the 71 patients who could be evaluated, 21 died, representing an overall case fatality rate of 30%. Death occurred in 13 of 35 patients (37%) who received the current standard of care alone and in 8 of 36 patients (22%) who received the current standard of care plus ZMapp. The observed posterior probability that ZMapp plus the current standard of care was superior to the current standard of care alone was 91.2%, falling short of the prespecified threshold of 97.5%. Frequentist analyses yielded similar results (absolute difference in mortality with ZMapp, -15 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, -36 to 7). Baseline viral load was strongly predictive of both mortality and duration of hospitalization in all age groups. CONCLUSIONS: In this randomized, controlled trial of a putative therapeutic agent for EVD, although the estimated effect of ZMapp appeared to be beneficial, the result did not meet the prespecified statistical threshold for efficacy. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; PREVAIL II ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02363322 .).

A win ratio approach to the re-analysis of Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial.

BACKGROUND: Composite outcomes, which combine multiple types of clinical events into a single outcome, are common in clinical trials. The usual analysis considers the time to first occurrence of any event in the composite. The major criticisms of such an approach are (1) this implicitly treats the outcomes as if they were of equal importance, but they often vary in terms of clinical relevance and severity, (2) study participants often experience more than one type of event, and (3) often less severe events occur before more severe ones, but the usual analysis disregards any information beyond that first event. METHODS: A novel approach, referred to as the win ratio, which addresses the aforementioned criticisms of composite outcomes, is illustrated with a re-analysis of data on fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease time-to-event outcomes reported for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial. In this trial, 12,866 participants were randomized to a special intervention group (n = 6428) or a usual care (n = 6438) group. Non-fatal outcomes were ranked by risk of cardiovascular disease death up to 20 years after trial. In one approach, participants in the special intervention and usual care groups were first matched on coronary heart disease risk at baseline and time of enrollment. Each matched pair was categorized as a winner or loser depending on which one experienced a cardiovascular disease death first. If neither died of cardiovascular disease causes, they were evaluated on the most severe non-fatal outcome. This process continued for all the non-fatal outcomes. A second win ratio statistic, obtained from Cox partial likelihood, was also estimated. This statistic provides a valid estimate of the win ratio using multiple events if the marginal and conditional survivor functions of each outcome satisfy proportional hazards. Loss ratio statistics (inverse of win ratios) are compared to hazard ratios from the usual first event analysis. A larger 11-event composite was also considered. RESULTS: For the 7-event cardiovascular disease composite, the previously reported first event analysis based on 581 events in the special intervention group and 652 events in the usual care group yielded a hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 0.89 (0.79-0.99), compared to 0.86 (0.77-0.97) and 0.91 (0.81-1.02) for the severity ranked estimates. Results for the 11-event composite also confirmed the findings of the first event analysis. CONCLUSION: The win ratio analysis was able to leverage information collected past the first experienced event and rank events by severity. The results were similar to and confirmed previously reported traditional first event analysis. The win ratio statistic is a useful adjunct to the traditional first event analysis for trials with composite outcomes.

Determination of fasiglifam-induced liver toxicity: Insights from the data monitoring committee of the fasiglifam clinical trials program.

BACKGROUND: Different approaches to safety event collection influence the determination of liver toxicity within drug development programs. Herein, a description of how fasiglifam-induced liver injury was detected is provided. METHODS: This eight-trial drug development program was intended to evaluate fasiglifam (25 mg, 50 mg) against placebo or active comparators (glimepiride, sitagliptin) in approximately 11,000 suboptimally controlled patients with type 2 diabetes (terminated Dec 2013 due to liver toxicity). Liver safety had been pre-identified as a concern, and within the phase 3 trials, was measured through (1) adverse event reporting, (2) central predefined liver monitoring schedule with various thresholds for potential drug-induced liver injury, and (3) blinded adjudication of serious liver toxicity by a panel of experts in drug-induced liver injury. A single data monitoring committee provided safety oversight across all trials within the program. FINDINGS: Prior to program termination, 7595 of 7602 (99.9%) randomized participants across the eight trials received at least one dose of the study drug (fasiglifam, placebo, or active control). No concerning trends were noted in adverse or serious adverse event frequency, suspected unexpected serious adverse reaction, alanine or aspartate transaminase elevations, or hepatobiliary or gastrointestinal adverse events as reported by local site investigators. However, the predefined central liver safety measurements revealed a greater frequency of possible Hy's Law cases (5 vs 2) and a 3- to 7-fold greater relative risk in alanine or aspartate transaminase elevation (with respect to upper limit of normal) within fasiglifam recipients compared with placebo/active control: alanine or aspartate transaminase > 3×: relative risk 3.34 (95% confidence interval 2.29-4.90), alanine or aspartate transaminase > 5×: relative risk 6.60 (95% confidence interval 3.03-14.38), alanine or aspartate transaminase > 8×: relative risk 6.14 (95% confidence interval 2.18-17.27), and alanine or aspartate transaminase > 10×: relative risk 6.74 (95% confidence interval 2.05, 22.14). All elevations resolved on study drug discontinuation. Drug-induced liver injury was adjudicated as highly likely or probably related in 0.64% of fasiglifam-treated versus 0.06% placebo or active control-treated patients. CONCLUSION: In spite of clear liver toxicity detected with a systematic surveillance program, liver safety signals were not identified from investigator adverse event reporting alone. By integrating key safety monitoring processes within the randomized design of adequately sized clinical trials, the rare but serious liver toxicity signal became clear, leading to timely program termination.