Excess mortality in Europe coincides with peaks of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), November 2023 to February 2024.

Since the end of November 2023, the European Mortality Monitoring Network (EuroMOMO) has observed excess mortality in Europe. During weeks 48 2023-6 2024, preliminary results show a substantially increased rate of 95.3 (95% CI:  91.7-98.9) excess all-cause deaths per 100,000 person-years for all ages. This excess mortality is seen in adults aged 45 years and older, and coincides with widespread presence of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) observed in many European countries during the 2023/24 winter season.

Real-time monitoring shows substantial excess all-cause mortality during second wave of COVID-19 in Europe, October to December 2020.

The European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network monitors weekly excess all-cause mortality in 27 European countries or subnational areas. During the first wave of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Europe in spring 2020, several countries experienced extraordinarily high levels of excess mortality. Europe is currently seeing another upsurge in COVID-19 cases, and EuroMOMO is again witnessing a substantial excess all-cause mortality attributable to COVID-19.

Excess all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe - preliminary pooled estimates from the EuroMOMO network, March to April 2020.

A remarkable excess mortality has coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. We present preliminary pooled estimates of all-cause mortality for 24 European countries/federal states participating in the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network, for the period March-April 2020. Excess mortality particularly affected ≥ 65 year olds (91% of all excess deaths), but also 45-64 (8%) and 15-44 year olds (1%). No excess mortality was observed in 0-14 year olds.

End of season influenza vaccine effectiveness in adults and children in the United Kingdom in 2017/18.

BackgroundIn the United Kingdom (UK), in recent influenza seasons, children are offered a quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV4), and eligible adults mainly trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV).AimTo estimate the UK end-of-season 2017/18 adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) and the seroprevalence in England of antibodies against influenza viruses cultured in eggs or tissue.MethodsThis observational study employed the test-negative case-control approach to estimate aVE in primary care. The population-based seroprevalence survey used residual age-stratified samples.ResultsInfluenza viruses A(H3N2) (particularly subgroup 3C.2a2) and B (mainly B/Yamagata/16/88-lineage, similar to the quadrivalent vaccine B-virus component but mismatched to TIV) dominated. All-age aVE was 15% (95% confidence interval (CI): -6.3 to 32) against all influenza; -16.4% (95% CI: -59.3 to 14.9) against A(H3N2); 24.7% (95% CI: 1.1 to 42.7) against B and 66.3% (95% CI: 33.4 to 82.9) against A(H1N1)pdm09. For 2-17 year olds, LAIV4 aVE was 26.9% (95% CI: -32.6 to 59.7) against all influenza; -75.5% (95% CI: -289.6 to 21) against A(H3N2); 60.8% (95% CI: 8.2 to 83.3) against B and 90.3% (95% CI: 16.4 to 98.9) against A(H1N1)pdm09. For ≥ 18 year olds, TIV aVE against influenza B was 1.9% (95% CI: -63.6 to 41.2). The 2017 seroprevalence of antibody recognising tissue-grown A(H3N2) virus was significantly lower than that recognising egg-grown virus in all groups except 15-24 year olds.ConclusionsOverall aVE was low driven by no effectiveness against A(H3N2) possibly related to vaccine virus egg-adaption and a new A(H3N2) subgroup emergence. The TIV was not effective against influenza B. LAIV4 against influenza B and A(H1N1)pdm09 was effective.

Comparison of general obesity and measures of body fat distribution in older adults in relation to cancer risk: meta-analysis of individual participant data of seven prospective cohorts in Europe.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the associations of anthropometric indicators of general obesity (body mass index, BMI), an established risk factor of various cancer, and body fat distribution (waist circumference, WC; hip circumference, HC; and waist-to-hip ratio, WHR), which may better reflect metabolic complications of obesity, with total obesity-related and site-specific (colorectal and postmenopausal breast) cancer incidence. METHODS: This is a meta-analysis of seven prospective cohort studies participating in the CHANCES consortium including 18 668 men and 24 751 women with a mean age of 62 and 63 years, respectively. Harmonised individual participant data from all seven cohorts were analysed separately and alternatively for each anthropometric indicator using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: After a median follow-up period of 12 years, 1656 first-incident obesity-related cancers (defined as postmenopausal female breast, colorectum, lower oesophagus, cardia stomach, liver, gallbladder, pancreas, endometrium, ovary, and kidney) had occurred in men and women. In the meta-analysis of all studies, associations between indicators of adiposity, per s.d. increment, and risk for all obesity-related cancers combined yielded the following summary hazard ratios: 1.11 (95% CI 1.02-1.21) for BMI, 1.13 (95% CI 1.04-1.23) for WC, 1.09 (95% CI 0.98-1.21) for HC, and 1.15 (95% CI 1.00-1.32) for WHR. Increases in risk for colorectal cancer were 16%, 21%, 15%, and 20%, respectively per s.d. of BMI, WC, HC, and WHR. Effect modification by hormone therapy (HT) use was observed for postmenopausal breast cancer (Pinteraction<0.001), where never HT users showed an ∼20% increased risk per s.d. of BMI, WC, and HC compared to ever users. CONCLUSIONS: BMI, WC, HC, and WHR show comparable positive associations with obesity-related cancers combined and with colorectal cancer in older adults. For postmenopausal breast cancer we report evidence for effect modification by HT use.

Association of Repeatedly Measured High-Sensitivity-Assayed Troponin I with Cardiovascular Disease Events in a General Population from the MORGAM/BiomarCaRE Study.

BACKGROUND: High-sensitivity troponin I (hs-cTnI) concentrations reflect myocardial stress. The role of hs-cTnI in predicting long-term changes in the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in general populations is not clearly defined. METHODS: We investigated whether the change in 3 repeated measures of hs-cTnI collected 5 years apart in a prospective Danish study (3875 participants, initially aged 30-60 years, 51% female, disease free at baseline) improves 10-year prediction of incident CVD compared to using a single most recent hs-cTnI measurement. The change process was modelled using a joint (longitudinal and survival) model and compared to a Cox model using a single hs-cTnI measure adjusted for classic CVD risk factors, and evaluated using discrimination statistics. RESULTS: Median hs-cTnI concentrations changed from 2.6 ng/L to 3.4 ng/L over 10 years. The change in hs-cTnI predicts 10-year risk of CVD (581 events); the joint model gave a hazard ratio of 1.31 per interquartile difference in hs-cTnI (95% CI 1.15-1.48) after adjustment for CVD risk factors. However, the joint model performed only marginally better (c-index improvement 0.0041, P = 0.03) than using a single hs-cTnI measure (c-index improvement 0.0052, P = 0.04) for prediction of CVD, compared to a model incorporating CVD risk factors without hs-cTnI (c-index 0.744). CONCLUSIONS: The change in hs-cTnI in 5-year intervals better predicts risk of CVD in the general population, but the most recent measure of hs-cTnI, (at 10 years) is as effective in predicting CVD risk. This simplifies the use of hs-cTnI as a prognostic marker for primary prevention of CVD in the general population.

Quantification of the smoking-associated cancer risk with rate advancement periods: meta-analysis of individual participant data from cohorts of the CHANCES consortium.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is the most important individual risk factor for many cancer sites but its association with breast and prostate cancer is not entirely clear. Rate advancement periods (RAPs) may enhance communication of smoking related risk to the general population. Thus, we estimated RAPs for the association of smoking exposure (smoking status, time since smoking cessation, smoking intensity, and duration) with total and site-specific (lung, breast, colorectal, prostate, gastric, head and neck, and pancreatic) cancer incidence and mortality. METHODS: This is a meta-analysis of 19 population-based prospective cohort studies with individual participant data for 897,021 European and American adults. For each cohort we calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of smoking exposure with cancer outcomes using Cox regression adjusted for a common set of the most important potential confounding variables. RAPs (in years) were calculated as the ratio of the logarithms of the HRs for a given smoking exposure variable and age. Meta-analyses were employed to summarize cohort-specific HRs and RAPs. RESULTS: Overall, 140,205 subjects had a first incident cancer, and 53,164 died from cancer, during an average follow-up of 12 years. Current smoking advanced the overall risk of developing and dying from cancer by eight and ten years, respectively, compared with never smokers. The greatest advancements in cancer risk and mortality were seen for lung cancer and the least for breast cancer. Smoking cessation was statistically significantly associated with delays in the risk of cancer development and mortality compared with continued smoking. CONCLUSIONS: This investigation shows that smoking, even among older adults, considerably advances, and cessation delays, the risk of developing and dying from cancer. These findings may be helpful in more effectively communicating the harmful effects of smoking and the beneficial effect of smoking cessation.

Overweight duration in older adults and cancer risk: a study of cohorts in Europe and the United States.

Recent studies have shown that cancer risk related to overweight and obesity is mediated by time and might be better approximated by using life years lived with excess weight. In this study we aimed to assess the impact of overweight duration and intensity in older adults on the risk of developing different forms of cancer. Study participants from seven European and one US cohort study with two or more weight assessments during follow-up were included (n = 329,576). Trajectories of body mass index (BMI) across ages were estimated using a quadratic growth model; overweight duration (BMI ≥ 25) and cumulative weighted overweight years were calculated. In multivariate Cox models and random effects analyses, a longer duration of overweight was significantly associated with the incidence of obesity-related cancer [overall hazard ratio (HR) per 10-year increment: 1.36; 95 % CI 1.12-1.60], but also increased the risk of postmenopausal breast and colorectal cancer. Additionally accounting for the degree of overweight further increased the risk of obesity-related cancer. Risks associated with a longer overweight duration were higher in men than in women and were attenuated by smoking. For postmenopausal breast cancer, increased risks were confined to women who never used hormone therapy. Overall, 8.4 % of all obesity-related cancers could be attributed to overweight at any age. These findings provide further insights into the role of overweight duration in the etiology of cancer and indicate that weight control is relevant at all ages. This knowledge is vital for the development of effective and targeted cancer prevention strategies.

Effect of major lifestyle risk factors, independent and jointly, on life expectancy with and without cardiovascular disease: results from the Consortium on Health and Ageing Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES).

Seldom have studies taken account of changes in lifestyle habits in the elderly, or investigated their impact on disease-free life expectancy (LE) and LE with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Using data on subjects aged 50+ years from three European cohorts (RCPH, ESTHER and Tromsø), we used multi-state Markov models to calculate the independent and joint effects of smoking, physical activity, obesity and alcohol consumption on LE with and without CVD. Men and women aged 50 years who have a favourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, non-smoker and participates in vigorous physical activity) lived between 7.4 (in Tromsø men) and 15.7 (in ESTHER women) years longer than those with an unfavourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, smoker and does not participate in physical activity). The greater part of the extra life years was in terms of "disease-free" years, though a healthy lifestyle was also associated with extra years lived after a CVD event. There are sizeable benefits to LE without CVD and also for survival after CVD onset when people favour a lifestyle characterized by salutary behaviours. Remaining a non-smoker yielded the greatest extra years in overall LE, when compared to the effects of routinely taking physical activity, being overweight but not obese, and drinking in moderation. The majority of the overall LE benefit is in disease free years. Therefore, it is important for policy makers and the public to know that prevention through maintaining a favourable lifestyle is "never too late".

Repeated measures of body mass index and C-reactive protein in relation to all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease: results from the consortium on health and ageing network of cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES).

Obesity has been linked with elevated levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), and both have been associated with increased risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Previous studies have used a single 'baseline' measurement and such analyses cannot account for possible changes in these which may lead to a biased estimation of risk. Using four cohorts from CHANCES which had repeated measures in participants 50 years and older, multivariate time-dependent Cox proportional hazards was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) to examine the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and CRP with all-cause mortality and CVD. Being overweight (≥25-<30 kg/m(2)) or moderately obese (≥30-<35) tended to be associated with a lower risk of mortality compared to normal (≥18.5-<25): ESTHER, HR (95 % CI) 0.69 (0.58-0.82) and 0.78 (0.63-0.97); Rotterdam, 0.86 (0.79-0.94) and 0.80 (0.72-0.89). A similar relationship was found, but only for overweight in Glostrup, HR (95 % CI) 0.88 (0.76-1.02); and moderately obese in Tromsø, HR (95 % CI) 0.79 (0.62-1.01). Associations were not evident between repeated measures of BMI and CVD. Conversely, increasing CRP concentrations, measured on more than one occasion, were associated with an increasing risk of mortality and CVD. Being overweight or moderately obese is associated with a lower risk of mortality, while CRP, independent of BMI, is positively associated with mortality and CVD risk. If inflammation links CRP and BMI, they may participate in distinct/independent pathways. Accounting for independent changes in risk factors over time may be crucial for unveiling their effects on mortality and disease morbidity.

Hazardous alcohol consumption is associated with increased levels of B-type natriuretic peptide: evidence from two population-based studies.

Russia has very high mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD), with evidence that heavy drinking may play a role. To throw further light on this association we have studied the association of alcohol with predictors of CVD risk including B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP). Levels of BNP increase primarily in response to abnormal cardiac chamber wall stretch which can occur both as a result of atherosclerosis as well as due to other types of damage to the myocardium. No previous population-based studies have investigated the association with alcohol. We analysed cross-sectional data on drinking behaviour in 993 men aged 25-60 years from the Izhevsk Family Study 2 (IFS2), conducted in the Russian city of Izhevsk in 2008-2009. Relative to non-drinkers, men who drank hazardously had an odds ratio (OR) of being in the top 20 % of the BNP distribution of 4.66 (95 % CI 2.13, 10.19) adjusted for age, obesity, waist-hip ratio, and smoking. Further adjustment for class of hypertension resulted in only slight attenuation of the effect, suggesting that this effect was not secondary to the influence of alcohol on blood pressure. In contrast hazardous drinking was associated with markedly raised ApoA1 and HDL cholesterol levels, but had little impact on levels of ApoB and LDL cholesterol. Similar but less pronounced associations were found in the Belfast (UK) component of the PRIME study conducted in 1991. These findings suggest that the association of heavy drinking with increased risk of cardiovascular disease may be partly due to alcohol-induced non-atherosclerotic damage to the myocardium.

A prospective cohort study of obesity and risk of oesophageal and gastric adenocarcinoma in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.

OBJECTIVE: The incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has increased rapidly over the past 40 years and accumulating evidence suggests that obesity, as measured by body mass index (BMI), is a major risk factor. It remains unclear whether abdominal obesity is associated with EAC and gastric adenocarcinoma. DESIGN: Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine associations between overall and abdominal obesity with EAC and gastric adenocarcinoma among 218 854 participants in the prospective NIH-AARP cohort. RESULTS: 253 incident EAC, 191 gastric cardia adenocarcinomas and 125 gastric non-cardia adenocarcinomas accrued to the cohort. Overall obesity (BMI) was positively associated with EAC and gastric cardia adenocarcinoma risk (highest (≥35 kg/m(2)) vs referent (18.5-<25 kg/m(2)); HR 2.11, 95% CI 1.09 to 4.09 and HR 3.67, 95% CI 2.00 to 6.71, respectively). Waist circumference was also positively associated with EAC and gastric cardia adenocarcinoma risk (highest vs referent; HR 2.01, 95% CI 1.35 to 3.00 and HR 2.22, 95% CI 1.43 to 3.47, respectively), whereas waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) was positively associated with EAC risk only (highest vs referent; HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.64) and persisted in patients with normal BMI (18.5-<25 kg/m(2)). Mutual adjustment of WHR and BMI attenuated both, but did not eliminate the positive associations for either with risk of EAC. In contrast, the majority of the anthropometric variables were not associated with adenocarcinomas of the gastric non-cardia. CONCLUSION: Overall obesity was associated with a higher risk of EAC and gastric cardia adenocarcinoma, whereas abdominal obesity was found to be associated with increased EAC risk; even in people with normal BMI.

An intercountry comparison of the impact of the paediatric live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) programme across the UK and the Republic of Ireland (ROI), 2010 to 2017.

Background: The universal paediatric live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) programme commenced in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2013/2014. Since 2014/2015, all pre-school and primary school children in Scotland and Northern Ireland have been offered the vaccine. England and Wales incrementally introduced the programme with additional school age cohorts being vaccinated each season. The Republic of Ireland (ROI) had no universal paediatric programme before 2017. We evaluated the potential population impact of vaccinating primary school-aged children across the five countries up to the 2016/2017 influenza season. Methods: We compared rates of primary care influenza-like illness (ILI) consultations, confirmed influenza intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and all-cause excess mortality using standardised methods. To further quantify the impact, a scoring system was developed where each weekly rate/z-score was scored and summed across each influenza season according to the weekly respective threshold experienced in each country. Results: Results highlight ILI consultation rates in the four seasons' post-programme, breached baseline thresholds once or not at all in Scotland and Northern Ireland; in three out of the four seasons in England and Wales; and in all four seasons in ROI. No differences were observed in the seasons' post-programme introduction between countries in rates of ICU and excess mortality, although reductions in influenza-related mortality were seen. The scoring system also reflected similar results overall. Conclusions: Findings of this study suggest that LAIV vaccination of primary school age children is associated with population-level benefits, particularly in reducing infection incidence in primary care.

Association of dietary fat intakes with risk of esophageal and gastric cancer in the NIH-AARP diet and health study.

The aim of our study was to investigate whether intakes of total fat and fat subtypes were associated with esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), gastric cardia or gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma. From 1995-1996, dietary intake data was reported by 494,978 participants of the NIH-AARP cohort. The 630 EAC, 215 ESCC, 454 gastric cardia and 501 gastric noncardia adenocarcinomas accrued to the cohort. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the association between the dietary fat intakes, whilst adjusting for potential confounders. Although apparent associations were observed in energy-adjusted models, multivariate adjustment attenuated results to null [e.g., EAC energy adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.66 (1.27-2.18) p for trend <0.01; EAC multivariate adjusted HR (95% CI) 1.17 (0.84-1.64) p for trend = 0.58]. Similar patterns were also observed for fat subtypes [e.g., EAC saturated fat, energy adjusted HR (95% CI) 1.79 (1.37-2.33) p for trend <0.01; EAC saturated fat, multivariate adjusted HR (95% CI) 1.27 (0.91-1.78) p for trend = 0.28]. However, in multivariate models an inverse association for polyunsaturated fat (continuous) was seen for EAC in subjects with a body mass index (BMI) in the normal range (18.5-<25 kg/m(2)) [HR (95% CI) 0.76 (0.63-0.92)], that was not present in overweight subjects [HR (95% CI) 1.04 (0.96-1.14)], or in unstratified analysis [HR (95% CI) 0.97 (0.90-1.05)]. p for interaction = 0.02. Overall, we found null associations between the dietary fat intakes with esophageal or gastric cancer risk; although a protective effect of polyunsaturated fat intake was seen for EAC in subjects with a normal BMI.

Dietary fat and meat intakes and risk of reflux esophagitis, Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma.

The aim of our study was to investigate whether dietary fat and meat intakes are associated with reflux esophagitis (RE), Barrett's esophagus (BE) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). In this all-Ireland case-control study, dietary intake data were collected using a food frequency questionnaire in 219 RE patients, 220 BE patients, 224 EAC patients and 256 frequency-matched controls between 2002 and 2005. Unconditional multiple logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between dietary variables and disease risk using quartiles of intake, to attain odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), while adjusting for potential confounders. Patients in the highest quartile of total fat intake had a higher risk of RE (OR = 3.54; 95% CI = 1.32-9.46) and EAC (OR = 5.44; 95% CI = 2.08-14.27). A higher risk of RE and EAC was also reported for patients in the highest quartile of saturated fat intake (OR = 2.79; 95% CI = 1.11-7.04; OR = 2.41; 95% CI = 1.14-5.08, respectively) and monounsaturated fat intake (OR = 2.63; 95% CI = 1.01-6.86; OR = 5.35; 95% CI = 2.14-13.34, respectively). Patients in the highest quartile of fresh red meat intake had a higher risk of EAC (OR = 3.15; 95% CI = 1.38-7.20). Patients in the highest category of processed meat intake had a higher risk of RE (OR = 4.67; 95% CI = 1.71-12.74). No consistent associations were seen for BE with either fat or meat intakes. Further studies investigating the association between dietary fat and food sources of fat are needed to confirm these results.

Dietary patterns and smoking in Northern Irish men: a population at high risk of coronary heart disease.

This study evaluated dietary habits of Northern Irish men who are at high risk of cardiovascular disease, stratified as never-, ex-, moderate-, or heavy-smokers. Participants were male volunteers (30 - 49 years) from a single workforce in Belfast (n = 765). Dietary information was collected using a validated food frequency questionnaire. For 'a priori' diet scores, never- and ex-smokers had a significantly higher fruit and vegetable score, Mediterranean diet score, and alternative Mediterranean diet score than moderate or heavy-smokers (all p < 0.05). For 'a posteriori' patterns, scores for the healthy, sweet tooth, and traditional dietary patterns, derived from principal component analysis, differed significantly by smoking status, being lower among smokers for the healthy and sweet tooth patterns, and higher in ex-smokers for the traditional pattern (all p < 0.05). When the 'a posteriori' patterns were included in models predicting likelihood of being in a particular smoking category with the 'a priori' patterns, the results for the fruit and vegetable score lost significance (p = 0.13). Both 'a priori' and 'a posteriori' dietary patterns identified smokers, particularly heavy smokers, as exhibiting fewer healthy dietary habits than never- or ex-smokers, but 'a posteriori' dietary patterns appeared to be more strongly associated with smoking status.

Effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines on covid-19 related symptoms, hospital admissions, and mortality in older adults in England: test negative case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the real world effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 and Oxford-AstraZeneca ChAdOx1-S vaccines against confirmed covid-19 symptoms (including the UK variant of concern B.1.1.7), admissions to hospital, and deaths. DESIGN: Test negative case-control study. SETTING: Community testing for covid-19 in England. PARTICIPANTS: 156 930 adults aged 70 years and older who reported symptoms of covid-19 between 8 December 2020 and 19 February 2021 and were successfully linked to vaccination data in the National Immunisation Management System. INTERVENTIONS: Vaccination with BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1-S. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes were polymerase chain reaction confirmed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections, admissions to hospital for covid-19, and deaths with covid-19. RESULTS: Participants aged 80 years and older vaccinated with BNT162b2 before 4 January 2021 had a higher odds of testing positive for covid-19 in the first nine days after vaccination (odds ratio up to 1.48, 95% confidence interval 1.23 to 1.77), indicating that those initially targeted had a higher underlying risk of infection. Vaccine effectiveness was therefore compared with the baseline post-vaccination period. Vaccine effects were noted 10 to 13 days after vaccination, reaching a vaccine effectiveness of 70% (95% confidence interval 59% to 78%), then plateauing. From 14 days after the second dose a vaccination effectiveness of 89% (85% to 93%) was found compared with the increased baseline risk. Participants aged 70 years and older vaccinated from 4 January (when ChAdOx1-S delivery commenced) had a similar underlying risk of covid-19 to unvaccinated individuals. With BNT162b2, vaccine effectiveness reached 61% (51% to 69%) from 28 to 34 days after vaccination, then plateaued. With ChAdOx1-S, effects were seen from 14 to 20 days after vaccination, reaching an effectiveness of 60% (41% to 73%) from 28 to 34 days, increasing to 73% (27% to 90%) from day 35 onwards. On top of the protection against symptomatic disease, a further 43% (33% to 52%) reduced risk of emergency hospital admission and 51% (37% to 62%) reduced risk of death was observed in those who had received one dose of BNT162b2. Participants who had received one dose of ChAdOx1-S had a further 37% (3% to 59%) reduced risk of emergency hospital admission. Follow-up was insufficient to assess the effect of ChAdOx1-S on mortality. Combined with the effect against symptomatic disease, a single dose of either vaccine was about 80% effective at preventing admission to hospital with covid-19 and a single dose of BNT162b2 was 85% effective at preventing death with covid-19. CONCLUSION: Vaccination with either one dose of BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1-S was associated with a significant reduction in symptomatic covid-19 in older adults, and with further protection against severe disease. Both vaccines showed similar effects. Protection was maintained for the duration of follow-up (>6 weeks). A second dose of BNT162b2 was associated with further protection against symptomatic disease. A clear effect of the vaccines against the B.1.1.7 variant was found.

Iron intake and markers of iron status and risk of Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between iron intake and iron status with Barrett's esophagus (BE) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). METHODS: A total of 220 BE patients, 224 EAC patients, and 256 frequency-matched controls completed a lifestyle and food frequency questionnaire and provided serum and toenail samples between 2002 and 2005. Using multiple logistic regression, odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated within quartiles of intake/status. RESULTS: Comparing the fourth to the first quartile, ferritin (OR 0.47; 95% CI: 0.23, 0.97) and transferrin saturation (OR 0.41; 95% CI: 0.20, 0.82) were negatively associated with BE; while total iron binding capacity was positively associated per 50 µg/dl increment (OR 1.47; 95% CI: 1.12, 1.92). Comparing the fourth to the first quartile, iron intake (OR 0.50; 95% CI: 0.25, 0.98), non-heme iron intake per 10 mg/day increment (OR 0.29; 95% CI: 0.08, 0.99), and toenail iron (OR 0.40; 95% CI: 0.17, 0.93) were negatively associated with EAC; while heme iron intake was positively associated (OR 3.11 95% CI: 1.46, 6.61). PRINCIPAL CONCLUSION: In contrast to the hypothesis that increased iron intakes and higher iron stores are a risk factor for BE and EAC, this study suggests that higher iron intakes and stores may have a protective association with BE and EAC, with the exception of what was found for heme iron intake.

Effect of supplementation with B vitamins and antioxidants on levels of asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) and C-reactive protein (CRP): a double-blind, randomised, factorial design, placebo-controlled trial.

PURPOSE: Cardiovascular risk factors such as elevated levels of asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA)/C-reactive protein (CRP) and homocysteine are potentially related to essential micronutrients such as certain B vitamins and antioxidant vitamins. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether supplementation with moderate doses of B vitamins and/or antioxidants could alter either ADMA and/or CRP concentrations in middle-aged, apparently healthy men with mildly elevated homocysteine levels. METHODS: A randomised, double-blind, factorial design, intervention study was carried out on 132 men with mildly elevated homocysteine levels, allocated to four groups (a) B vitamins alone--1 mg folic acid, 7.2 mg pyridoxine, 0.02 mg cyanocobalamin daily, (b) antioxidants alone--150 mg ascorbic acid, 67 mg vitamin E, 9 mg ß-carotene daily, (c) B vitamins with antioxidant vitamins, or (d) placebo. A total of 101 men completed the study to 8 weeks. RESULTS: When the percentage of baseline ADMA and CRP was examined at 8 weeks, no statistically significant differences were observed between the four groups (p = 0.21 and p = 0.90, respectively). Similar non-significant results were observed when analysis was stratified based on baseline CRP levels (<1.0 mg/L, p = 0.10; ≥1.0 mg/L, p = 0.64) and smoking status (all p ≥ 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Supplementation with moderate doses of B vitamins and/or antioxidants did not alter either ADMA or CRP concentrations in these middle-aged, apparently healthy men with mildly elevated homocysteine levels.

End of season influenza vaccine effectiveness in primary care in adults and children in the United Kingdom in 2018/19.

2018/19 was the first season of introduction of a newly licensed adjuvanted influenza vaccine (aTIV) for adults aged 65 years and over and the sixth season in the roll-out of a childhood influenza vaccination programme with a quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV). The season saw mainly A(H1N1)pdm09 and latterly A(H3N2) circulation. End-of-season adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) estimates against laboratory confirmed influenza infection in primary care were calculated using the test negative case control method adjusting for key confounders. End-of-season aVE was 44.3% (95% CI: 26.8, 57.7) against all laboratory-confirmed influenza; 45.7% (95% CI: 26.0, 60.1) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 35.1% (95% CI: -3.7,59.3) against A(H3N2). Overall aVE was 49.9% (95%CI: -13.7, 77.9) for all those ≥ 65 years of age and 62.0% (95% CI: 3.4, 85.0) for those who received aTIV. Overall aVE for 2-17 year olds receiving LAIV was 48.6% (95% CI: -4.4, 74.7). The paper provides evidence of overall significant influenza VE in 2018/19, most notably against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, however, as seen in 2017/18, there was reduced, non-significant VE against A(H3N2). aTIV provided significant protection for those 65 years of age and over.