Health worker compliance with severe malaria treatment guidelines in the context of implementing pre-referral rectal artesunate in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, and Uganda: An operational study.

BACKGROUND: For a full treatment course of severe malaria, community-administered pre-referral rectal artesunate (RAS) should be completed by post-referral treatment consisting of an injectable antimalarial and oral artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). This study aimed to assess compliance with this treatment recommendation in children under 5 years. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This observational study accompanied the implementation of RAS in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Nigeria, and Uganda between 2018 and 2020. Antimalarial treatment was assessed during admission in included referral health facilities (RHFs) in children under 5 with a diagnosis of severe malaria. Children were either referred from a community-based provider or directly attending the RHF. RHF data of 7,983 children was analysed for appropriateness of antimalarials; a subsample of 3,449 children was assessed additionally for dosage and method of ACT provision (treatment compliance). A parenteral antimalarial and an ACT were administered to 2.7% (28/1,051) of admitted children in Nigeria, 44.5% (1,211/2,724) in Uganda, and 50.3% (2,117/4,208) in DRC. Children receiving RAS from a community-based provider were more likely to be administered post-referral medication according to the guidelines in DRC (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 2.13, 95% CI 1.55 to 2.92, P < 0.001), but less likely in Uganda (aOR = 0.37, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.96, P = 0.04) adjusting for patient, provider, caregiver, and other contextual factors. While in DRC, inpatient ACT administration was common, ACTs were often prescribed at discharge in Nigeria (54.4%, 229/421) and Uganda (53.0%, 715/1,349). Study limitations include the unfeasibility to independently confirm the diagnosis of severe malaria due to the observational nature of the study. CONCLUSIONS: Directly observed treatment was often incomplete, bearing a high risk for partial parasite clearance and disease recrudescence. Parenteral artesunate not followed up with oral ACT constitutes an artemisinin monotherapy and may favour the selection of resistant parasites. In connection with the finding that pre-referral RAS had no beneficial effect on child survival in the 3 study countries, concerns about an effective continuum of care for children with severe malaria seem justified. Stricter compliance with the WHO severe malaria treatment guidelines is critical to effectively manage this disease and further reduce child mortality. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03568344).

Correction: Health worker compliance with severe malaria treatment guidelines in the context of implementing pre-referral rectal artesunate in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, and Uganda: An operational study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004189.].

Effectiveness of rectal artesunate as pre-referral treatment for severe malaria in children under 5 years of age: a multi-country observational study.

BACKGROUND: To prevent child deaths from severe malaria, early parenteral treatment is essential. Yet, in remote rural areas, accessing facilities offering parenteral antimalarials may be difficult. A randomised controlled trial found pre-referral treatment with rectal artesunate (RAS) to reduce deaths and disability in children who arrived at a referral facility with delay. This study examined the effectiveness of pre-referral RAS treatment implemented through routine procedures of established community-based health care systems. METHODS: An observational study accompanied the roll-out of RAS in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Nigeria and Uganda. Children <5 years of age presenting to a community-based health provider with a positive malaria test and signs of severe malaria were enrolled and followed up during admission and after 28 days to assess their health status and treatment history. The primary outcome was death; covariates of interest included RAS use, referral completion, and post-referral treatment. RESULTS: Post-roll-out, RAS was administered to 88% of patients in DRC, 52% in Nigeria, and 70% in Uganda. The overall case fatality rate (CFR) was 6.7% (135/2011) in DRC, 11.7% (69/589) in Nigeria, and 0.5% (19/3686) in Uganda; 13.8% (865/6286) of patients were sick on day 28. The CFR was higher after RAS roll-out in Nigeria (16.1 vs. 4.2%) and stable in DRC (6.7 vs. 6.6%) and Uganda (0.7 vs. 0.3%). In DRC and Nigeria, children receiving RAS were more likely to die than those not receiving RAS (aOR=3.06, 95% CI 1.35-6.92 and aOR=2.16, 95% CI 1.11-4.21, respectively). Only in Uganda, RAS users were less likely to be dead or sick at follow-up (aOR=0.60, 95% CI 0.45-0.79). Post-referral parenteral antimalarials plus oral artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), a proxy for appropriate post-referral treatment, was protective. However, in referral health facilities, ACT was not consistently administered after parenteral treatment (DRC 68.4%, Nigeria 0%, Uganda 70.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Implemented at scale to the recommended target group, pre-referral RAS had no beneficial effect on child survival in three highly malaria-endemic settings. RAS is unlikely to reduce malaria deaths unless health system issues such as referral and quality of care at all levels are addressed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov : NCT03568344.

Acceptability of pre-referral rectal artesunate for severe malaria in children under 5 years by health workers and caregivers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria and Uganda.

BACKGROUND: For children below 6 years with suspected severe malaria attending a health care provider unable to provide parenteral malaria treatment, pre-referral rectal artesunate (RAS) is recommended by the World Health Organization to prevent death and disability. A number of African countries are in the process of rolling out quality-assured RAS for pre-referral treatment of severe malaria at community-level. The success of RAS depends, among other factors, on the acceptability of RAS in the communities where it is being rolled-out. Yet to date, there is limited literature on RAS acceptability. This study aimed to determine the acceptability of RAS by health care providers and child caregivers in communities where quality assured RAS was rolled out. This study was nested within the comprehensive multi-country observational research project Community Access to Rectal Artesunate for Malaria (CARAMAL), implemented in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Nigeria, and Uganda between 2018 and 2020. Data from three different sources were analysed to understand RAS acceptability: interviews with health workers during three health care provider surveys (N = 341 community health workers and 467 primary health facility workers), with caregivers of children < 5 years of age during three household surveys (N = 9332 caregivers), and with caregivers of children < 5 years of age who were treated with RAS and enrolled in the CARAMAL Patient Surveillance System (N = 3645 caregivers). RESULTS: RAS acceptability was high among all interviewed stakeholders in the three countries. After the roll-out of RAS, 97-100% heath care providers in DRC, 98-100% in Nigeria and 93-100% in Uganda considered RAS as very good or good. Majority of caregivers whose children had received RAS for pre-referral management of severe malaria indicated that they would want to get the medication again, if their child had the same illness (99.8% of caregivers in DRC, 100% in Nigeria and 99.9% in Uganda). In three household surveys, 67-80% of caregivers whose children had not previously received RAS considered the medication as useful. CONCLUSION: RAS was well accepted by health workers and child caregivers in DRC, Nigeria and Uganda. Acceptability is unlikely to be an obstacle to the large-scale roll-out of RAS in the studied settings.

Modeling Nigerian Covid-19 cases: A comparative analysis of models and estimators.

COVID-19 remains a major pandemic currently threatening all the countries of the world. In Nigeria, there were 1, 932 COVID-19 confirmed cases, 319 discharged cases and 58 deaths as of 30th April 2020. This paper, therefore, subjected the daily cumulative reported COVID-19 cases of these three variables to nine (9) curve estimation statistical models in simple, quadratic, cubic, and quartic forms. It further identified the best of the thirty-six (36) models and used the same for prediction and forecasting purposes. The data collected by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control for sixty-four (64) days, two (2) months and three (3), were daily monitored and eventually analyzed. We identified the best models to be Quartic Linear Regression Model with an autocorrelated error of order 1 (AR(1)); and found the Ordinary Least Squares, Cochrane Orcutt, Hildreth-Lu, and Prais-Winsten and Least Absolute Deviation (LAD) estimators useful to estimate the models' parameters. Consequently, we recommended the daily cumulative forecast values of the LAD estimator for May and June 2020 with a 99% confidence level. The forecast values are alarming, and so, the Nigerian Government needs to hastily review her activities and interventions towards COVID-19 to provide some tactical and robust structures and measures to avert these challenges.

Prereferral rectal artesunate and referral completion among children with suspected severe malaria in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria and Uganda.

INTRODUCTION: Children who receive prereferral rectal artesunate (RAS) require urgent referral to a health facility where appropriate treatment for severe malaria can be provided. However, the rapid improvement of a child's condition after RAS administration may influence a caregiver's decision to follow this recommendation. Currently, the evidence on the effect of RAS on referral completion is limited. METHODS: An observational study accompanied the roll-out of RAS in three malaria endemic settings in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Nigeria and Uganda. Community health workers and primary health centres enrolled children under 5 years with suspected severe malaria before and after the roll-out of RAS. All children were followed up 28 days after enrolment to assess their treatment-seeking pathways. RESULTS: Referral completion was 67% (1408/2104) in DRC, 48% (287/600) in Nigeria and 58% (2170/3745) in Uganda. In DRC and Uganda, RAS users were less likely to complete referral than RAS non-users in the pre-roll-out phase (adjusted OR (aOR)=0.48, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.77 and aOR=0.72, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.88, respectively). Among children seeking care from a primary health centre in Nigeria, RAS users were less likely to complete referral compared with RAS non-users in the post-roll-out phase (aOR=0.18, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.71). In Uganda, among children who completed referral, RAS users were significantly more likely to complete referral on time than RAS non-users enrolled in the pre-roll-out phase (aOR=1.81, 95% CI 1.17 to 2.79). CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study raise legitimate concerns that the roll-out of RAS may lead to lower referral completion in children who were administered prereferral RAS. To ensure that community-based programmes are effectively implemented, barriers to referral completion need to be addressed at all levels. Alternative effective treatment options should be provided to children unable to complete referral. TRIAL REGISTRSTION NUMBER: NCT03568344; ClinicalTrials.gov.

Community access to rectal artesunate for malaria (CARAMAL): A large-scale observational implementation study in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria and Uganda.

The key to reducing malaria deaths in highly endemic areas is prompt access to quality case management. Given that many severe cases occur at peripheral level, rectal artesunate (RAS) in the form of suppositories was developed in the 1990s, allowing for rapid initiation of life-saving antimalarial treatment before referral to a health facility with full case management capabilities. One randomized controlled trial published in 2009 showed a protective effect of RAS pre-referral treatment against overall mortality of 26%, but with significant differences according to study sites and length of referral. Two important issues remained unaddressed: (1) whether the mortality impact of RAS observed under controlled trial conditions could be replicated under real-world circumstances; and (2) clear operational guidance for the wide-scale implementation of RAS, including essential health system determinants for optimal impact. From 2018 to 2020, the Community Access to Rectal Artesunate for Malaria (CARAMAL) project was conducted as a large-scale observational implementation study in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Nigeria, and Uganda (registered on ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT03568344). CARAMAL aimed to provide high-quality field evidence on the two issues above, in three remote settings with high malaria endemicity. A number of complementary study components were implemented. The core of the CARAMAL study was the Patient Surveillance System (PSS), which allowed tracking of cases of severe febrile illness from first contact at the periphery to a referral health facility, and then on to a Day 28 visit at the home of the patient. Community and provider cross-sectional surveys complemented the PSS. Here we describe in some detail RAS implementation, as well as the key CARAMAL study components and basic implementation experience. This manuscript does not intend to present key study results, but provides an extensive reference document for the companion papers describing the impact, referral process, post-referral treatment and costing of the RAS intervention.