The phenomenon of thunderstorm asthma in Bavaria, Southern Germany: a statistical approach.

Higher incidences of asthma during thunderstorms can pose a serious health risk. In this study, we estimate the thunderstorm asthma risk using statistical methods, with special focus on Bavaria, Southern Germany. In this approach, a dataset of asthma-related emergency cases for the study region is combined with meteorological variables and aeroallergen data to identify statistical relationships between the occurrence of asthma (predictand) and different environmental parameters (set of predictors). On the one hand, the results provide evidence for a weak but significant relationship between atmospheric stability indices and asthma emergencies in the region, but also show that currently thunderstorm asthma is not a major concern in Bavaria due to overall low incidences. As thunderstorm asthma can have severe consequences for allergic patients, the presented approach can be important for the development of emergency strategies in regions affected by thunderstorm asthma and under present and future climate change conditions.

Determination of the influence of weather and air constituents on aortic aneurysm ruptures.

In this article, we present a method to determine the influence of meteorology and air pollutants on ruptured aortic aneurysm (rAA). In contrast to previous studies, our work takes into account highly resolved seasonal relationships, a time-lagged effect relationship of up to two weeks, and furthermore, potential confounding influences between the meteorological and air-hygienic variables are considered and eliminated using a cross-over procedure. We demonstrate the application of the method using the cities of Augsburg and Munich in southern Germany as examples, where a total of 152 rAA can be analyzed for the years 2010-2019. With the help of a Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the analysis of the atmospheric circulation, typical weather situations could be identified that have an influence on the occurrence of rAA in the southern German region. These are a rainy northwest wind-type in spring, humid weather in summer and warm southwest wind-type weather in autumn and winter.

Associations between Weather, Air Quality and Moderate Extreme Cancer-Related Mortality Events in Augsburg, Southern Germany.

While many authors have described the adverse health effects of poor air quality and meteorological extremes, there remain inconsistencies on a regional scale as well as uncertainty about the single and joint effects of atmospheric predictors. In this context, we investigated the short-term impacts of weather and air quality on moderate extreme cancer-related mortality events for the urban area of Augsburg, Southern Germany, during the period 2000-2017. First, single effects were uncovered by applying a case-crossover routine. The overall impact was assessed by performing a Mann-Whitney U testing scheme. We then compared the results of this procedure to extreme noncancer-related mortality events. In a second step, we found periods with contemporaneous significant predictors and carried out an in-depth analysis of these joint-effect periods. We were interested in the atmospheric processes leading to the emergence of significant conditions. Hence, we applied the Principal Component Analysis to large-scale synoptic conditions during these periods. The results demonstrate a strong linkage between high-mortality events in cancer patients and significantly above-average levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM2.5) during the late winter through spring period. These were mainly linked to northerly to easterly weak airflow under stable, high-pressure conditions. Especially in winter and spring, this can result in low temperatures and a ground-level increase and the accumulation of air pollution from heating and traffic as well as eastern lateral advection of polluted air. Additionally, above-average temperatures were shown to occur on the days before mortality events from mid-summer through fall, which was also caused by high-pressure conditions with weak wind flow and intense solar radiation. Our approach can be used to analyse medical data with epidemiological as well as climatological methods while providing a more vivid representation of the underlying atmospheric processes.