Gender difference in mortality among pulmonary tuberculosis HIV co-infected adults aged 15-49 years in Kenya.

SETTING: Kenya, 2012-2015. OBJECTIVE: To explore whether there is a gender difference in all-cause mortality among smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB)/ HIV co-infected patients treated for tuberculosis (TB) between 2012 and 2015 in Kenya. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort of 9,026 smear-positive patients aged 15-49 years. All-cause mortality during TB treatment was the outcome of interest. Time to start of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation was considered as a proxy for CD4 cell count. Those who took long to start of ART were assumed to have high CD4 cell count. RESULTS: Of the 9,026 observations analysed, 4,567(51%) and 4,459(49%) were women and men, respectively. Overall, out of the 9,026 patients, 8,154 (90%) had their treatment outcome as cured, the mean age in years (SD) was 33.3(7.5) and the mean body mass index (SD) was 18.2(3.4). Men were older (30% men' vs 17% women in those ≥40 years, p = <0.001) and had a lower BMI <18.5 (55.3% men vs 50.6% women, p = <0.001). Men tested later for HIV: 29% (1,317/4,567) of women HIV tested more than 3 months prior to TB treatment, as compared to 20% (912/4,459) men (p<0.001). Mortality was higher in men 11% (471/4,459) compared to women 9% (401/4,567, p = 0.004). There was a 17% reduction in the risk of death among women (adjusted HR 0.83; 95% CI 0.72-0.96; p = 0.013). Survival varied by age-groups, with women having significantly better survival than men, in the age-groups 40 years and over (log-rank p = 0.006). CONCLUSION: Women with sputum positive PTB/HIV co-infection have a significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality during TB treatment compared to men. Men were older, had lower BMI and tested later for HIV than women.

Situating trade-offs: Stakeholder perspectives on overtreatment versus missed diagnosis in transition to Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra in Kenya and Swaziland.

Implementing new diagnostics in public health programs can involve difficult trade-off decisions between individual patient benefits and public health considerations. Such decision-making processes are often not documented and may not include engagement of affected communities. This paper examines the perspectives of stakeholders on the trade-off between over-treatment and missed diagnosis captured during decision-making workshops on the transition from use of Xpert MTB/RIF to diagnose tuberculosis to Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra in Kenya and Swaziland. Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra has an overall increase in sensitivity but a decrease in specificity when compared to its predecessor. We conducted a qualitative study using four focus group discussions with a total of 47 participants and non-participant observation. The analysis reveals how participants deemed Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra's reduced specificity vis-à-vis its increased sensitivity to be an acceptable trade-off. The way participants assessed this trade-off was shaped by their experiences with the general uncertainty of all diagnostic tests, alternative testing options, historical evolution of diagnostic practices, epidemiological factors and resource constraints. In assessing the trade-off community and individual benefit and harm was frequently discussed together. Qualitative research on stakeholder engagement activities for diagnostic development and implementation can identify everyday experiences and situate assessments and perspectives of key stakeholders and as such aid in decision-making, improving implementation as well as patient outcomes. Further research is needed on the intended and unintended consequences of such engagement activities, how findings are being incorporated by decision-makers, and the impact on programmatic implementation.

Tuberculosis control activities in the private and public health sectors of Kenya from 2013 to 2017: how do they compare?

BACKGROUND: Large numbers of tuberculosis (TB) patients seek care from private for-profit providers. This study aimed to assess and compare TB control activities in the private for-profit and public sectors in Kenya between 2013 and 2017. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study using routinely collected data from the National Tuberculosis, Leprosy and Lung Disease Program. RESULTS: Of 421 409 patients registered and treated between 2013 and 2017, 86 894 (21%) were from the private sector. Data collection was less complete in the private sector for nutritional assessment and follow-up sputum smear examinations (p<0.001). The private sector notified less bacteriologically confirmed TB (43.1% vs 52.6%; p<0.001) and had less malnutrition (body mass index <18.5 kg/m2; 36.4% vs 43.3%; p<0.001) than the public sector. Rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing and antiretroviral therapy initiation were >95% and >90%, respectively, in both sectors, but more patients were HIV positive in the private sector (39.6% vs 31.6%; p<0.001). For bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary TB, cure rates were lower in the private sector, especially for HIV-negative patients (p<0.001). The private sector had an overall treatment success of 86.3% as compared with the public sector at 85.7% (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The private sector is performing well in Kenya although there are programmatic challenges that need to be addressed.

Assessing tuberculosis control priorities in high-burden settings: a modelling approach.

BACKGROUND: In the context of WHO's End TB strategy, there is a need to focus future control efforts on those interventions and innovations that would be most effective in accelerating declines in tuberculosis burden. Using a modelling approach to link the tuberculosis care cascade to transmission, we aimed to identify which improvements in the cascade would yield the greatest effect on incidence and mortality. METHODS: We engaged with national tuberculosis programmes in three country settings (India, Kenya, and Moldova) as illustrative examples of settings with a large private sector (India), a high HIV burden (Kenya), and a high burden of multidrug resistance (Moldova). We collated WHO country burden estimates, routine surveillance data, and tuberculosis prevalence surveys from 2011 (for India) and 2016 (for Kenya). Linking the tuberculosis care cascade to tuberculosis transmission using a mathematical model with Bayesian melding in each setting, we examined which cascade shortfalls would have the greatest effect on incidence and mortality, and how the cascade could be used to monitor future control efforts. FINDINGS: Modelling suggests that combined measures to strengthen the care cascade could reduce cumulative tuberculosis incidence by 38% (95% Bayesian credible intervals 27-43) in India, 31% (25-41) in Kenya, and 27% (17-41) in Moldova between 2018 and 2035. For both incidence and mortality, modelling suggests that the most important cascade losses are the proportion of patients visiting the private health-care sector in India, missed diagnosis in health-care settings in Kenya, and drug sensitivity testing in Moldova. In all settings, the most influential delay is the interval before a patient's first presentation for care. In future interventions, the proportion of individuals with tuberculosis who are on high-quality treatment could offer a more robust monitoring tool than routine notifications of tuberculosis. INTERPRETATION: Linked to transmission, the care cascade can be valuable, not only for improving patient outcomes but also in identifying and monitoring programmatic priorities to reduce tuberculosis incidence and mortality. FUNDING: US Agency for International Development, Stop TB Partnership, UK Medical Research Council, and Department for International Development.

Kenya tuberculosis prevalence survey 2016: Challenges and opportunities of ending TB in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine the prevalence of pulmonary TB amongst the adult population (≥15 years) in 2016 in Kenya. METHOD: A nationwide cross-sectional survey where participants first underwent TB symptom screening and chest x-ray. Subsequently, participants who reported cough >2weeks and/or had a chest x-ray suggestive of TB, submitted sputum specimen for laboratory examination by smear microscopy, culture and Xpert MTB/RIF. RESULT: The survey identified 305 prevalent TB cases translating to a prevalence of 558 [95%CI 455-662] per 100,000 adult population. The highest disease burden was reported among people aged 25-34 years (716 [95% CI 526-906]), males (809 [(95% CI 656-962]) and those who live in urban areas (760 [95% CI 539-981]). Compared to the reported TB notification rate for Kenya in 2016, the prevalence to notification ratio was 2.5:1. The gap between the survey prevalence and notification rates was highest among males, age groups 25-34, and the older age group of 65 years and above. Only 48% of the of the survey prevalent cases reported cough >2weeks. In addition, only 59% of the identified cases had the four cardinal symptoms for TB (cough ≥2 weeks, fever, night sweat and weight loss. However, 88.2% had an abnormal chest x-ray suggestive of TB. The use of Xpert MTB/RIF identified 77.7% of the cases compared to smear microscopy's 46%. Twenty-one percent of the survey participants with respiratory symptoms reported to have sought prior health care at private clinics and chemists. Among the survey prevalent cases who reported TB related symptoms, 64.9% had not sought any health care prior to the survey. CONCLUSION: This survey established that TB prevalence in Kenya is higher than had been estimated, and about half of the those who fall ill with the disease each year are missed.

An outbreak of cholera in western Kenya, 2015: a case control study.

INTRODUCTION: in February 2015, an outbreak of acute watery diarrhea was reported in two sub counties in western Kenya. Vibrio cholerae 01 serotype Ogawa was isolated from 26 cases and from water samples collected from a river mainly used by residents of the two sub-counties for domestic purposes. We carried out an investigation to determine factors associated with the outbreak. METHODS: we conducted a frequency matched case control study in the community. We defined cases as episodes of watery diarrhea (at least three motions in 24 hours) in persons ≥ 2 years who were residents of Rongo or Ndhiwa sub-counties from January 23-February 25, 2015. Cases were systematically recruited from a cholera line list and matched to two controls (persons without diarrhea since January 23, 2015) by age category and residence. A structured questionnaire was administered to evaluate exposures in cases and controls and multivariable logistic regression done to determine independent factors associated with the outbreak. RESULTS: we recruited 52 cases and 104 controls. Females constituted 61% (95/156) of all participants. Overall latrine coverage was 58% (90/156). Latrine coverage was 44% (23/52) for cases and 64% (67/104) for controls. Having no latrine at home (aOR = 10.9; 95% CI: 3.02-39.21), practicing communal hand washing in a basin (aOR = 6.5; 95% CI: 2.30-18.11) and vending of food as an occupation (aOR = 3.4; 95% CI: 1.06-10.74) were independently associated with the outbreak. CONCLUSION: poor latrine coverage and personal hygiene practices were identified as the main drivers of the outbreak. We recommended improved public health education on latrine usage and promotion of hand washing with soap and water in the community.