A Simple Prognostic Scoring System for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Selective Internal Radiation Therapy.

INTRODUCTION: Selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) is a local treatment option for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Its exact role next to other HCC therapies has yet to be defined. In order to identify patients most suitable for SIRT, a SIRT-specific prognostic score should be developed. METHODS: A cohort of 72 SIRT patients treated at the University Hospital of Munich was retrospectively analyzed. The prognostic performance of 12 HCC staging systems and prognostic scores was assessed. Cox-regression analysis was used to identify independent prognostic factors, which formed the basis of the Munich-SIRT score (M-SIRT). All scores were ranked by calculating the c-Index and Akaike information criterion (AIC). External validation was performed in a cohort of 128 SIRT patients treated at the University Hospital of Pamplona, Spain. RESULTS: median overall survival was 13 months (95% confidence interval 9.9-21.9). AFP (p = 0.005; hazard ratio [HR] 2.38), albumin (p < 0.001; HR 5.87), and alkaline phosphatase (p < 0.001; HR 8.38) were identified as independent prognostic factors. M-SIRT comprises 3 prognostic groups with a median survival of 38.9, 14.6, and 7.7 months, respectively (I vs. II: p = 0.003, II vs. III: p < 0.001). AIC (318) and concordance index (0.711) ranked M-SIRT superior to the established HCC staging systems, and the score successfully passed external validation in an independent SIRT cohort (I vs. II: p = 0.03; II vs. III: p = 0.007). CONCLUSION: Therapy-specific prognostic scores can facilitate treatment decisions and prognostication for HCC patients. Considering its performance in 200 SIRT patients, M-SIRT is a promising prognostic tool for HCC patients evaluated for SIRT.

The Munich-Transarterial Chemoembolisation Score Holds Superior Prognostic Capacities Compared to TACE-Tailored Modifications of 9 Established Staging Systems for Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The recently proposed Munich-transarterial chemoembolisation-score (M-TACE) was tailored to suit hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) patients evaluated for TACE. M-TACE outperformed the established HCC-staging-systems and successfully passed external validation. Modifications of staging-systems through the rearrangement of stages or by adding prognostic factors are methods of improving prognostic power. M-TACEs performance compared to scores modified this way should be tested. METHODS: Seven well-known HCC staging-systems (including Cancer of the Liver Italian Program-score [CLIP] and Barcelona Clinic liver cancer [BCLC]) and 2 TACE-specific scores (Selection for Transarterial Chemoembolisation Treatment [STATE] and Hepatoma Arterial embolisation Prognostic [HAP]) were rearranged in a cohort of 186 TACE-patients through score-point-analysis and subsequent linking of non-significant adjacent score-points. Additionally, a new score was constructed by combining the top established staging-system in TACE patients (CLIP-TACE) and the prognostic parameter with the highest hazard ratio for death in the TACE-cohort [C-reactive protein (CRP)]. Additionally, the TACE-tailored-scores were applied to an external TACE-cohort (n = 71). -Results: Rearrangement resulted in optimal stratification and monotonicity. CLIP-TACE demonstrated the best prognostic capability of all rearranged scores (c-index 0.668, AIC 1294) and the addition of CRP yielded further prognostic improvement (c-index 0.680, AIC 1289). However, superiority over M-TACE could not be achieved by any of the new scores in the internal and external cohort. CONCLUSION: M-TACE outperforms TACE-tailored modifications of all relevant HCC-staging-systems. Prospective validation of M-TACE to promote its role as the preferred staging-system for TACE-patients is therefore justified.

Transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma: development and external validation of the Munich-TACE score.

BACKGROUND: Allocation of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to the adequate therapy is determined by both tumor burden and liver function. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system and therapeutic algorithm recommends transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) based on the best evidence available to patients with intermediate-stage HCC (BCLC-B). However, many centers also treat subgroups of patients outside these recommendations and with more advanced disease by TACE. The purpose of this study was to identify prognostic factors in a TACE cohort, including BCLC-B patients, as well as patients treated outside of BCLC-B, to test the prognostic capabilities of published staging systems and to optimize prognostication for TACE patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A cohort of 186 first-line TACE patients was analyzed. Independent prognostic factors were identified and used to construct the Munich-TACE score (M-TACE). M-TACE was tested against established staging systems (including BCLC and two recently published TACE-specific scores) and a ranking using concordance index and Akaike Information Criterion was performed. Finally, an external validation in an independent TACE cohort (n=71) was conducted. RESULTS: Bilirubin, Quick/international normalized ratio, C-reactive protein, creatinine, α-feto protein, and tumor extension were identified as independent prognostic factors and used to construct M-TACE. M-TACE identifies three distinct subgroups (P<0.0001) with median survival times of 35.2, 16.9, and 8.6 months, respectively. Compared with established staging systems, M-TACE showed the best prognostic capabilities in both cohorts of patients (cohort 1: c-index, 0.71; Akaike Information Criterion: 1276; cohort 2: c-index, 0.754). CONCLUSION: We identified independent risk factors for patients treated with TACE. The newly constructed M-TACE score is superior to established staging systems and might prove helpful to identify patients who are most suitable for TACE.

Prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. Validation and ranking of established staging-systems in a large western HCC-cohort.

BACKGROUND: HCC is diagnosed in approximately half a million people per year, worldwide. Staging is a more complex issue than in most other cancer entities and, mainly due to unique geographic characteristics of the disease, no universally accepted staging system exists to date. Focusing on survival rates we analyzed demographic, etiological, clinical, laboratory and tumor characteristics of HCC-patients in our institution and applied the common staging systems. Furthermore we aimed at identifying the most suitable of the current staging systems for predicting survival. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Overall, 405 patients with HCC were identified from an electronic medical record database. The following seven staging systems were applied and ranked according to their ability to predict survival by using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the concordance-index (c-index): BCLC, CLIP, GETCH, JIS, Okuda, TNM and Child-Pugh. Separately, every single variable of each staging system was tested for prognostic meaning in uni- and multivariate analysis. Alcoholic cirrhosis (44.4%) was the leading etiological factor followed by viral hepatitis C (18.8%). Median survival was 18.1 months (95%-CI: 15.2-22.2). Ascites, bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, AFP, number of tumor nodes and the BCLC tumor extension remained independent prognostic factors in multivariate analysis. Overall, all of the tested staging systems showed a reasonable discriminatory ability. CLIP (closely followed by JIS) was the top-ranked score in terms of prognostic capability with the best values of the AIC and c-index (AIC 2286, c-index 0.71), surpassing other established staging systems like BCLC (AIC 2343, c-index 0.66). The unidimensional scores TNM (AIC 2342, c-index 0.64) and Child-Pugh (AIC 2369, c-index 0.63) performed in an inferior fashion. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Compared with six other staging systems, the CLIP-score was identified as the most suitable staging system for predicting prognosis in a large German cohort of predominantly non-surgical HCC-patients.