California wildfire spread derived using VIIRS satellite observations and an object-based tracking system.

Changing wildfire regimes in the western US and other fire-prone regions pose considerable risks to human health and ecosystem function. However, our understanding of wildfire behavior is still limited by a lack of data products that systematically quantify fire spread, behavior and impacts. Here we develop a novel object-based system for tracking the progression of individual fires using 375 m Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire detections. At each half-daily time step, fire pixels are clustered according to their spatial proximity, and are either appended to an existing active fire object or are assigned to a new object. This automatic system allows us to update the attributes of each fire event, delineate the fire perimeter, and identify the active fire front shortly after satellite data acquisition. Using this system, we mapped the history of California fires during 2012-2020. Our approach and data stream may be useful for calibration and evaluation of fire spread models, estimation of near-real-time wildfire emissions, and as means for prescribing initial conditions in fire forecast models.

Storm surge and ponding explain mangrove dieback in southwest Florida following Hurricane Irma.

Mangroves buffer inland ecosystems from hurricane winds and storm surge. However, their ability to withstand harsh cyclone conditions depends on plant resilience traits and geomorphology. Using airborne lidar and satellite imagery collected before and after Hurricane Irma, we estimated that 62% of mangroves in southwest Florida suffered canopy damage, with largest impacts in tall forests (>10 m). Mangroves on well-drained sites (83%) resprouted new leaves within one year after the storm. By contrast, in poorly-drained inland sites, we detected one of the largest mangrove diebacks on record (10,760 ha), triggered by Irma. We found evidence that the combination of low elevation (median = 9.4 cm asl), storm surge water levels (>1.4 m above the ground surface), and hydrologic isolation drove coastal forest vulnerability and were independent of tree height or wind exposure. Our results indicated that storm surge and ponding caused dieback, not wind. Tidal restoration and hydrologic management in these vulnerable, low-lying coastal areas can reduce mangrove mortality and improve resilience to future cyclones.

Regional impacts of COVID-19 on carbon dioxide detected worldwide from space.

Activity reductions in early 2020 due to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic led to unprecedented decreases in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Despite their record size, the resulting atmospheric signals are smaller than and obscured by climate variability in atmospheric transport and biospheric fluxes, notably that related to the 2019­2020 Indian Ocean Dipole. Monitoring CO2 anomalies and distinguishing human and climatic causes thus remain a new frontier in Earth system science. We show that the impact of short-term regional changes in fossil fuel emissions on CO2 concentrations was observable from space. Starting in February and continuing through May, column CO2 over many of the world's largest emitting regions was 0.14 to 0.62 parts per million less than expected in a pandemic-free scenario, consistent with reductions of 3 to 13% in annual global emissions. Current spaceborne technologies are therefore approaching levels of accuracy and precision needed to support climate mitigation strategies with future missions expected to meet those needs.

Description of the NASA GEOS Composition Forecast Modeling System GEOS-CF v1.0.

The Goddard Earth Observing System composition forecast (GEOS-CF) system is a high-resolution (0.25°) global constituent prediction system from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). GEOS-CF offers a new tool for atmospheric chemistry research, with the goal to supplement NASA's broad range of space-based and in-situ observations. GEOS-CF expands on the GEOS weather and aerosol modeling system by introducing the GEOS-Chem chemistry module to provide hindcasts and 5-days forecasts of atmospheric constituents including ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The chemistry module integrated in GEOS-CF is identical to the offline GEOS-Chem model and readily benefits from the innovations provided by the GEOS-Chem community. Evaluation of GEOS-CF against satellite, ozonesonde and surface observations for years 2018-2019 show realistic simulated concentrations of O3, NO2, and CO, with normalized mean biases of -0.1 to 0.3, normalized root mean square errors between 0.1-0.4, and correlations between 0.3-0.8. Comparisons against surface observations highlight the successful representation of air pollutants in many regions of the world and during all seasons, yet also highlight current limitations, such as a global high bias in SO2 and an overprediction of summertime O3 over the Southeast United States. GEOS-CF v1.0 generally overestimates aerosols by 20%-50% due to known issues in GEOS-Chem v12.0.1 that have been addressed in later versions. The 5-days forecasts have skill scores comparable to the 1-day hindcast. Model skills can be improved significantly by applying a bias-correction to the surface model output using a machine-learning approach.

Forecasting Global Fire Emissions on Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Time Scales.

Fire emissions of gases and aerosols alter atmospheric composition and have substantial impacts on climate, ecosystem function, and human health. Warming climate and human expansion in fire-prone landscapes exacerbate fire impacts and call for more effective management tools. Here we developed a global fire forecasting system that predicts monthly emissions using past fire data and climate variables for lead times of 1 to 6 months. Using monthly fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) as the prediction target, we fit a statistical time series model, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with eXogenous variables (ARIMAX), in over 1,300 different fire regions. Optimized parameters were then used to forecast future emissions. The forecast system took into account information about region-specific seasonality, long-term trends, recent fire observations, and climate drivers representing both large-scale climate variability and local fire weather. We cross-validated the forecast skill of the system with different combinations of predictors and forecast lead times. The reference model, which combined endogenous and exogenous predictors with a 1 month forecast lead time, explained 52% of the variability in the global fire emissions anomaly, considerably exceeding the performance of a reference model that assumed persistent emissions during the forecast period. The system also successfully resolved detailed spatial patterns of fire emissions anomalies in regions with significant fire activity. This study bridges the gap between the efforts of near-real-time fire forecasts and seasonal fire outlooks and represents a step toward establishing an operational global fire, smoke, and carbon cycle forecasting system.

The influence of mid-latitude cyclones on European background surface ozone.

The relationship between springtime mid-latitude cyclones and background ozone (O3) is explored using a combination of observational and reanalysis data sets. First, the relationship between surface O3 observations at two rural monitoring sites on the west coast of Europe - Mace Head, Ireland and Monte Velho, Portugal - and cyclone track frequency in the surrounding regions is examined. Second, detailed case study examination of four individual mid-latitude cyclones and the influence of the associated frontal passage on surface O3 is performed. Cyclone tracks have a greater influence on the O3 measurements at the more northern coastal European station, Mace Head, located within the main North Atlantic (NA) storm track. In particular, when cyclones track north of 53° N, there is a significant relationship with high levels of surface O3 (> 75th percentile). The further away a cyclone is from the NA storm track, the more likely it will be associated with both high and low (< 25th percentile) levels of O3 at the observation site during the cyclone's life cycle. The results of the four case studies demonstrate a) the importance of the passage of a cyclone's cold front in relation to surface O3 measurements, b) the ability of mid-latitude cyclones to bring down high levels of O3 from the stratosphere and c) that accompanying surface high pressure systems and their associated transport pathways play an important role in the temporal variability of surface O3. The main source of high O3 to these two sites in springtime is from the stratosphere, either from direct injection into the cyclone or associated with aged airstreams from decaying downstream cyclones that can become entrained and descend toward the surface within new cyclones over the NA region.

Frequency and Impact of Summertime Stratospheric Intrusions over Maryland during DISCOVER-AQ (2011): New Evidence from NASA's GEOS-5 Simulations.

Aircraft observations and ozonesonde profiles collected on July 14 and 27, 2011, during the Maryland month-long DISCOVER-AQ campaign, indicate the presence of stratospheric air just above the planetary boundary layer (PBL). This raises the question of whether summer stratospheric intrusions (SIs) elevate surface ozone levels and to what degree they influence background ozone levels and contribute to ozone production. We used idealized stratospheric air tracers, along with observations, to determine the frequency and extent of SIs in Maryland during July 2011. On 4 of 14 flight days, SIs were detected in layers that the aircraft encountered above the PBL from the coincidence of enhanced ozone, moderate CO, and low moisture. Satellite observations of lower tropospheric humidity confirmed the occurrence of synoptic scale influence of SIs as do simulations with the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model. The evolution of GEOS-5 stratospheric air tracers agree with the timing and location of observed stratospheric influence and indicate that more than 50% of air in SI layers above the PBL had resided in the stratosphere within the previous 14 days. Despite having a strong influence in the lower free troposphere, these events did not significantly affect surface ozone, which remained low on intrusion days. The model indicates similar frequencies of stratospheric influence during all summers from 2009-2013. GEOS-5 results suggest that, over Maryland, the strong inversion capping the summer PBL limits downward mixing of stratospheric air during much of the day, helping to preserve low surface ozone associated with frontal passages that precede SIs.