Supervivencia y factores asociados en pacientes con cáncer cervicouterino atendidas por el Seguro Popular en México.

 Objetivo. Estimar la supervivencia a cinco años por cáncer cervicouterino y sus factores asociados en pacientes mexica-nas, cuya atención fue financiada por el Fondo de Protección contra Gastos Catastróficos (FPGC) del Seguro Popular durante el periodo 2006-2014. Material y métodos. Se analizó la base de datos de las pacientes mencionadas y se vinculó con el Subsistema Epidemiológico y Estadístico de Defunciones. Se hizo un análisis de supervivencia a cinco años por etapa clínica y factores asociados, mediante el método de Kaplan-Meier y los modelos de riesgos proporcionales de Cox. Resultados. La supervivencia global por cáncer cervicouterino a los cinco años fue de 68.5%. Los factores asociados fueron la etapa clínica (locoregional [HR=2.8 IC95% HR: 2.6,3.0] y metastásica [HR=5.4 IC95% HR: 4.9,5.9]) com-parada con la etapa temprana y la edad (HR=1.003 IC95% HR:1.001,1.004). Conclusiones. Las mujeres que lograron el acceso a la atención del cáncer cervical financiadas por el FPGC tuvieron una supervivencia ligeramente superior a las reportadas en otros estudios.

Estimación del exceso de mortalidad por todas las causas durante la pandemia del Covid-19 en México.

 Objetivo. Estimar el exceso de defunciones por todas las causas en México durante 2020. Material y métodos. Se construyó un canal endémico con las defunciones (2015- 2019), estableciendo el umbral epidémico en el percentil 90, y se comparó con las actas de defunción para estimar el exceso de mortalidad. Resultados. A la semana 53, ocurrieron 326 612 defunciones en exceso (45.1%), con un máximo en la semana 28 (98.0%) y un mínimo en la semana 41 (35.2%); después de la semana 4 los hombres (51.3%), principalmente de 45-64 años de edad, sin embargo, en los de 60 años o más ocurrió el mayor nú-mero de defunciones. Conclusión. En México, el exceso de mortalidad ha sido prolongado en comparación con otros países, con alta variabilidad interestatal. Esto podría deberse a las condiciones socioeconómicas y a la alta prevalencia de comorbilidades que aumentan el riesgo de morir en la población mexicana.

[Vaccination in Mexico: imprecise coverages and deficiency in the follow-up of children with incomplete immunization]. / Vacunación en México: coberturas imprecisas y deficiencia en el seguimiento de los niños que no completan el esquema.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the validity of the official vaccination figures according to the available information and to identify opportunities for improvement. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We estimated vaccination coverage and dropout rates (for multi-dose vaccines) for one-year-old children, based on public information from the dynamic cubes of the Ministry of Health, for the years 2015 to 2017. R. RESULTS: We observed variations in the vaccination monthly reports, which indicate low rates of vaccination, as well as high dropout rates when comparing first and third doses applied. For children 1 year of age, the national complete coverage was estimated at 48.9. CONCLUSIONS: There is no reliable information to estimate the actual vaccination coverage. Government documents report a constant overestimation of vaccination coverage that creates a "false sense of security". This has become a barrier for the critical analysis of the Universal Vaccination Program.

OBJETIVO: Analizar la veracidad de las cifras oficiales de acuerdo con la información disponible e identificar oportunidades de mejora. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Estimamos las coberturas de vacunación y tasas de deserción (para las vacunas administradas en multidosis) del esquema básico para niños menores de un año de edad, con base en la información de cubos dinámicos de la Secretaría de Salud de 2015 a 2017. RESULTADOS: Observamos variaciones en los reportes mensuales de vacunación que indican bajas tasas de vacunación, así como índices altos de deserción al comparar primeras y terceras dosis aplicadas. La cobertura nacional de esquema completo se estimó en 48.9 por ciento. CONCLUSIONES: No se cuenta con información confiable que permita estimar las coberturas reales de vacunación. En los reportes oficiales hay una constante sobrestimación de las coberturas que ha creado a una "falsa sensación de seguridad". Esto se ha constituido en una barrera que impide el análisis crítico del Programa Universal de Vacunación.

[Municipal malnutrition in Mexican preschool children population and coverage of the Programa Nacional México Sin Hambre.] / Mala nutrición a nivel municipal en población preescolar mexicana y cobertura del Programa Nacional México Sin Hambre.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate malnutrition prevalence of preschool children at the level of municipality in Mexico, describe prevalence heterogeneity and its relationship with the Programa Nacional México Sin Hambre´s coverage. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using the 2012 Mexican National Survey of Health and Nutrition, municipal income inequality and marginality, we applied a generalized normal model to obtain municipal distributions of nutrition status indicators from which we estimated malnutrition prevalence. RESULTS: Stunting prevalence ranged from 7.8% (95%CI: 5.9-8.9) to 64.2% (49.2-72.5), low weight prevalence ranged from 0.6% (0.005- 1.7) to 22.2% (13.5-34.9) and overweight-obesity prevalencem ranged from 2.6% (0.2-3.9) to 14.4% (11.9-27.7). A total of 275 out of 554 municipalities with stunting prevalence above 25% were covered by the Programa Nacional México Sin Hambre. CONCLUSIONS: Municipal malnutrition prevalence estimation showed wide differences within Mexico; this knowledge could assist public policy.

OBJETIVO: Estimar las prevalencias municipales de mala nutrición en población preescolar en México, y describir su variabilidad y su relación con la cobertura del Programa Nacional México Sin Hambre. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: A partir de datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición de 2012, la desigualdad del ingreso y marginación municipal se aplicó un modelo normal generalizado para obtener las distribuciones municipales de los indicadores de nutrición y estimar las prevalencias de mala nutrición. RESULTADOS: Las prevalencias de talla baja variaron de 7.8% (IC95%: 5.9-8.9) a 64.2% (49.2-72.5), las de bajo peso de 0.6% (0.005-1.7) a 22.2% (13.5-34.9) y de sobrepeso u obesidad de 2.6% (0.2- 3.9) a 14.4% (11.9-27.7). De los 554 municipios con prevalencias de talla baja mayor que 25%, 275 fueron cubiertos por el programa México Sin Hambre. CONCLUSIONES: La estimación de prevalencias municipales de mala nutrición evidenció grandes diferencias al interior del país, mismas que podrían asistir la política pública.

Overview of acute diarrheal disease at the dawn of the 21st century: The case of Mexico.

OBJECTIVE: To provide an overview of morbidity and mortality due to acute diarrheal disease in Mexico in order to understand its magnitude, distribution, and evolution from 2000 to 2016. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We carried out a longitudinal ecological study with secondary sources of information. We used data from epidemiological surveillance, health services, and vital statistics. We calculated and mapped measures of utilization of health services rates and mortality due to diarrheal diseases. RESULTS: Diarrhea morbidity decreased by 42.1% across the period. However, emergency department attendances increased by 50.7% in the Ministry of Health. The hospitalization rate and mortality among the general population decreased by 37.6 and 39.7%, respectively, and the infant mortality rate decreased by 72.3% among children under five years of age. Chiapas and Oaxaca had the highest mortality among the states of Mexico. CONCLUSIONS: Cases of diarrhea, including rotavirus, have decreased in Mexico. However, in 2016, 3.4 per 100 000 people died due to diarrhea, which could have been avoided with health promotion.

OBJETIVO: Ofrecer un panorama de la morbimortalidad por enfermedad diarreica aguda (EDA) entre 2000 y 2016 en México, para entender su magnitud, distribución y evolución. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Estudio ecológico longitudinal, con fuentes de información secundarias. Se analizaron datos de vigilancia epidemiológica, prestación de servicios y estadísticas vitales. Se calcularon tasas de utilización de servicios y mortalidad. RESULTADOS: La morbilidad por EDA disminuyó 42.1% en el periodo, sin embargo, la atención por urgencias aumentó 50.7% en SS. La tasa de hospitalización descendió 37.6% y la mortalidad 39.7% en población general y 72.3% en menores de cinco años. Chiapas y Oaxaca fueron los estados con mayor tasa de mortalidad. CONCLUSIONES: Los casos de diarrea, incluyendo los de rotavirus, han disminuido en el país. Sin embargo, en 2016 se encontró una tasa de 3.4 por 100 000 personas que mueren por EDA, lo cual podría evitarse con promoción de la salud.

Zika virus infection estimates, Mexico.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the magnitude of the Mexican epidemic of Zika virus infection and the associated risk of microcephaly. METHODS: From the reported number of laboratory-confirmed symptomatic infections among pregnant women and the relevant birth rate, we estimated the number of symptomatic cases of infection that occurred in Mexico between 25 November 2015, when the first confirmed Mexican case was reported, and 20 August 2016. We used data from the birth certificates to compare mean monthly incidences of congenital microcephaly before (1 January 2010-30 November 2015) and after (1 December 2015-30 September 2017) the introduction of Zika virus, stratifying the data according to whether the mother's place of residence was at an altitude of at least 2200 m above sea level. We used Poisson interrupted time series, statistical modelling and graphical analyses. FINDINGS: Our estimated number of symptomatic cases of infection that may have occurred in the general population of Mexico between 25 November 2015 and 20 August 2016, 60 172, was 7.3-fold higher than the corresponding number of reported cases. The monthly numbers of microcephaly cases per 100 000 live births were significantly higher after the introduction of the virus than before (incidence rate ratio, IRR: 2.9; 95% confidence interval, CI: 2.3 to 3.6), especially among the babies of women living at altitudes below 2200 m (IRR: 3.4; 95% CI: 2.9 to 3.9). CONCLUSION: The Mexican epidemic appears to be much larger than indicated by estimates based solely on counts of laboratory-confirmed cases, and to be associated with significantly increased risk of microcephaly.

Utilization of hospital services for cancer care in Mexico.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the utilization of hospital services for cancer care by location, sex, age group and care institution in Mexico from 2004-2013. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Time series study from 2004-2013, based on administrative records of hospital discharges for cancer in the health sector, including the private sector. RESULTS: The utilization rate increased significantly from 290 to 360 per 100 000 inhabitants. A total of 62% of hospital discharges related to malignant tumors were concentrated in eight types of cancer. Leukemia, breast and colorectal cancers almost doubled in the period. While lung cancer showed a decline among men, it increased among women. A total of 63.1% of cancer patients were women, and 81% of cases occurred in the public sector. From 2011, the Ministry of Health was the main provider of hospital services for cancer care. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in utilization were mainly found in the Ministry of Health, quite possibly as a result of the implementation of universal insurance.

Burden of type 2 diabetes in Mexico: past, current and future prevalence and incidence rates.

INTRODUCTION: Mexico diabetes prevalence has increased dramatically in recent years. However, no national incidence estimates exist, hampering the assessment of diabetes trends and precluding the development of burden of disease analyses to inform public health policy decision-making. Here we provide evidence regarding current magnitude of diabetes in Mexico and its future trends. METHODS: We used data from the Mexico National Health and Nutrition Survey, and age-period-cohort models to estimate prevalence and incidence of self-reported diagnosed diabetes by age, sex, calendar-year (1960-2012), and birth-cohort (1920-1980). We project future rates under three alternative incidence scenarios using demographic projections of the Mexican population from 2010-2050 and a Multi-cohort Diabetes Markov Model. RESULTS: Adult (ages 20+) diagnosed diabetes prevalence in Mexico increased from 7% to 8.9% from 2006 to 2012. Diabetes prevalence increases with age, peaking around ages 65-68 to then decrease. Age-specific incidence follows similar patterns, but peaks around ages 57-59. We estimate that diagnosed diabetes incidence increased exponentially during 1960-2012, roughly doubling every 10 years. Projected rates under three age-specific incidence scenarios suggest diabetes prevalence among adults (ages 20+) may reach 13.7-22.5% by 2050, affecting 15-25 million individuals, with a lifetime risk of 1 in 3 to 1 in 2. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes prevalence in Mexico will continue to increase even if current incidence rates remain unchanged. Continued implementation of policies to reduce obesity rates, increase physical activity, and improve population diet, in tandem with diabetes surveillance and other risk control measures is paramount to substantially reduce the burden of diabetes in Mexico.

Cervical cancer prevention program in Mexico disrupted due to COVID-19 pandemic: Challenges and opportunities.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the preventive services for cervical cancer (CC) control programs in Mexico, which will result in increased mortality. This study aims to assess the impact of the pandemic on the interruption of three preventive actions in the CC prevention program in Mexico. Methods: This study is a retrospective time series analysis based on administrative records for the uninsured population served by the Mexican Ministry of Health. Patient data were retrieved from the outpatient service information system and the hospital discharge database for the period 2017-2021. Data were aggregated by month, distinguishing a pre-pandemic and a pandemic period, considering April 2020 as the start date of the pandemic. A Poisson time series analysis was used to model seasonal and secular trends. Five process indicators were selected to assess the disruption of the CC program, these were analyzed as monthly data (N=39 pre-pandemic, N=21 during the pandemic). HPV vaccination indicators (number of doses and coverage) and diagnostic characteristics of CC cases were analyzed descriptively. The time elapsed between diagnosis and treatment initiation in CC cases was modeled using restricted cubic splines from robust regression. Results: Annual HPV vaccination coverage declined dramatically after 2019 and was almost null in 2021. The number of positive Papanicolaou smears decreased by 67.8% (90%CI: -72.3, -61.7) in April-December 2020, compared to their expected values without the pandemic. The immediate pandemic shock (April 2020) in the number of first-time and recurrent colposcopies was -80.5% (95%CI:-83.5, -77.0) and -77.9% (95%CI: -81.0, -74.4), respectively. An increasing trend was observed in the proportion of advanced stage and metastatic CC cases. The fraction of CC cases that did not receive medical treatment or surgery increased, as well as CC cases that received late treatment after diagnosis. Conclusions: Our analyses show significant impact of the COVID-19 pandemic with declines at all levels of CC prevention and increasing inequalities. The restarting of the preventive programs against CC in Mexico offers an opportunity to put in place actions to reduce the disparities in the burden of disease between socioeconomic levels.

Implementation and validation of a probabilistic linkage method for population databases without identification variables.

Linking records of the same person from different sources makes it possible to build administrative cohorts and perform longitudinal analyzes, as an alternative to traditional cohort studies, and have important practical implications in producing knowledge in public health. We implemented the Fellegi-Sunter probabilistic linkage method to a sample of records from the Mexican Automated System for Hospital Discharges and the Statistical and Epidemiological System for Deaths and evaluated its performance. The records in each source were randomly divided into a training sample (25%) and a validation sample (75%). We evaluated different types of blocking in terms of complexity reduction and pairs completeness, and record linkage in terms of sensitivity and positive predictive value. In the validation sample, a blocking scheme based on trigrams of the full name achieved 95.76% pairs completeness and 99.9996% complexity reduction. After pairs classification, we achieved a sensitivity of 90.72% and a positive predictive value of 97.10% in the validation sample. Both values were about one percentage point higher than that obtained in the automatic classification without clerical review of potential pairs. We concluded that the linkage algorithm achieved a good performance in terms of sensitivity and positive predictive value and can be used to build administrative cohorts for the epidemiological analysis of populations with records in health information systems.

Leading causes of excess mortality in Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021: A death certificates study in a middle-income country.

Background: The death toll after SARS-CoV-2 emergence includes deaths directly or indirectly associated with COVID-19. Mexico reported 325,415 excess deaths, 34.4% of them not directly related to COVID-19 in 2020. In this work, we aimed to analyse temporal changes in the distribution of the leading causes of mortality produced by COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico to understand excess mortality not directly related to the virus infection. Methods: We did a longitudinal retrospective study of the leading causes of mortality and their variation with respect to cause-specific expected deaths in Mexico from January 2020 through December 2021 using death certificate information. We fitted a Poisson regression model to predict cause-specific mortality during the pandemic period, based on the 2015-2019 registered mortality. We estimated excess deaths as a weekly difference between expected and observed deaths and added up for the entire period. We expressed all-cause and cause-specific excess mortality as a percentage change with respect to predicted deaths by our model. Findings: COVID-19 was the leading cause of death in 2020-2021 (439,582 deaths). All-cause total excess mortality was 600,590 deaths (38⋅2% [95% CI: 36·0 to 40·4] over expected). The largest increases in cause-specific mortality, occurred in diabetes (36·8% over expected), respiratory infections (33·3%), ischaemic heart diseases (32·5%) and hypertensive diseases (25·0%). The cause-groups that experienced significant decreases with respect to the expected pre-pandemic mortality were infectious and parasitic diseases (-20·8%), skin diseases (-17·5%), non-traffic related accidents (-16·7%) and malignant neoplasm (-5·3%). Interpretation: Mortality from COVID-19 became the first cause of death in 2020-2021, the increase in other causes of death may be explained by changes in the health service utilization patterns caused by hospital conversion or fear of the population using them. Cause-misclassification cannot be ruled out. Funding: This study was funded by Conacyt.

Mortality burden of the A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico: a comparison of deaths and years of life lost to seasonal influenza.

BACKGROUND: The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic remains controversial, in part because of delays in reporting of vital statistics that are traditionally used to measure influenza-related excess mortality. Here, we compare excess mortality rates and years of life lost (YLL) for pandemic and seasonal influenza in Mexico and evaluate laboratory-confirmed death reports. METHODS: Monthly age- and cause-specific death rates from January 2000 through April 2010 and population-based surveillance of influenza virus activity were used to estimate excess mortality and YLL in Mexico. Age-stratified laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 death reports were obtained from an active surveillance system covering 40% of the population. RESULTS: The A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 11.1 excess all-cause deaths per 100,000 population and 445,000 YLL during the 3 waves of virus activity in Mexico, April-December 2009. The pandemic mortality burden was 0.6-2.6 times that of a typical influenza season and lower than that of the severe 2003-2004 influenza epidemic. Individuals aged 5-19 and 20-59 years were disproportionately affected relative to their experience with seasonal influenza. Laboratory-confirmed deaths captured 1 of 7 pandemic excess deaths overall but only 1 of 41 deaths in persons >60 years of age in 2009. A recrudescence of excess mortality was observed in older persons during winter 2010, in a period when influenza and respiratory syncytial virus cocirculated. CONCLUSIONS: Mexico experienced higher 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic mortality burden than other countries for which estimates are available. Further analyses of detailed vital statistics are required to assess geographical variation in the mortality patterns of this pandemic.

[Health information systems in the Mesoamerican Region]. / Sistemas de información en salud en la Región Mesoamericana.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate and analyze health information systems (his) in the Mesoamerican Region. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The conceptual framework and tools of the Health Metrics Network (nhm) was used. It measures six components of the his assessment: resources, indicators, data sources, information management, products and use. RESULTS: In this study we found that the average score of the HIS in the Mesoamerican region was 57%, being the maximum value for Mexico (75%) and the minimum for El Salvador (41%). The item that had lowest scores was that referring to the Management and Administration, where the average assessment was 37%, placing it as present but not adequate. The component with the highest score was Information Products with more than 69%, adequate. In any case, no items were very adequate. CONCLUSION: The performance of his is heterogeneous between countries. It is necessary to strengthen and standardize the criteria of the his in the region, so that these are integrated and used in the decision making process based on real information.

[Fund for Protection against Catastrophic Expenses]. / El Fondo de Protección contra Gastos Catastróficos: tendencia, evolución y operación.

OBJECTIVE: To document the status of operational and managerial processes of the Fund for Protection against Catastrophic Expenses (FPGC), as well as to describe its evolution, and to explore the relationship between covered diseases and the Mexican health profile. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This is a joint management study, which included a qualitative and a quantitative phase. We conducted semi-structured interviews with key informants. We also analyzed the records of CNPSS, the hospital discharge and mortality data bases. RESULTS: Fifty two percent of the states take twice as long to report and validate the cases. From 2004-2009 the FPGC increased its coverage from 6 to 49 interventions, that means a spending increase of 2 306.4% in nominal terms and 1 659.3% in real terms. The HIV/AIDS was the intervention prioritized with 39.3% and Mexico City had the highest proportion of expenditure (25.1%). A few diseases included in the health profile are covered by the FPGC. CONCLUSIONS: The review of the inclusion criteria of diseases is urgent, so as to cover diseases of epidemiological importance.

Trends, structural changes, and assessment of time series models for forecasting hospital discharge due to death at a Mexican tertiary care hospital.

BACKGROUND: Data on hospital discharges can be used as a valuable instrument for hospital planning and management. The quantification of deaths can be considered a measure of the effectiveness of hospital intervention, and a high percentage of hospital discharges due to death can be associated with deficiencies in the quality of hospital care. OBJECTIVE: To determine the overall percentage of hospital discharges due to death in a Mexican tertiary care hospital from its opening, to describe the characteristics of the time series generated from the monthly percentage of hospital discharges due to death and to make and evaluate predictions. METHODS: This was a retrospective study involving the medical records of 81,083 patients who were discharged from a tertiary care hospital from April 2007 to December 2019 (first 153 months of operation). The records of the first 129 months (April 2007 to December 2017) were used for the analysis and construction of the models (training dataset). In addition, the records of the last 24 months (January 2018 to December 2019) were used to evaluate the predictions made (test dataset). Structural change was identified (Chow test), ARIMA models were adjusted, predictions were estimated with and without considering the structural change, and predictions were evaluated using error indices (MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and MASE). RESULTS: The total percentage of discharges due to death was 3.41%. A structural change was observed in the time series (March 2009, p>0.001), and ARIMA(0,0,0)(1,1,2)12 with drift models were adjusted with and without consideration of the structural change. The error metrics favored the model that did not consider the structural change (MAE = 0.63, RMSE = 0.81, MAPE = 25.89%, and MASE = 0.65). CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that the ARIMA models are an adequate tool for future monitoring of the monthly percentage of hospital discharges due to death, allowing us to detect observations that depart from the described trend and identify future structural changes.

Trends in Mortality by HIV/AIDS in Children in Mexico: Towards the Elimination of Mother-To-Child Transmission.

AIM OF THE STUDY: To examine mortality trends in children under 15 years of age due to HIV/AIDS in Mexico and describe their differences by insurance coverage. METHODS: Time series analysis of deaths from 1990-2019 through a Bayesian poisson regression model with linear splines and knots in 1994, 1997, and 2003. RESULTS: Overall, we observed a reduction in the mortality rate due to HIV from 2003 onwards, except in the group of 10-14 years. In the population covered with Social Security, mortality rates decreased in all age groups. However, in the group without Social Security or with Popular Security (subsidized system), mortality rates significantly decreased only for children below 5 years. of age. CONCLUSIONS: Health insurance through the contributory system is associated with faster and larger reductions in HIV related infant mortality. Universal access to health insurance was not sufficient to close the gap in HIV-mortality among children under 15 years of age in Mexico.

[Automated geospatial model for health services strategic planning]. / Modelo geoespacial automatizado para la regionalización operativa en planeación de redes de servicios de salud.

OBJECTIVE: To develop an automated model for the operational regionalization needed in the planning of the health service networks proposed by the new Mexican health care model (Modelo Integrador de Servicios de Salud MIDAS). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Using available data for México during 2005 and 2007, a geospatial model was developed to estimate potential catchment areas around health facilities based on access travel time. The results were compared with an operational regionalization (ERO) study manually carried out in Oaxaca with 2005 data. RESULTS: The ERO assigned 48% of villages to health care centers further away than those assigned by the geospatial model, and 23% of these health centers referred patients to more distant hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: The model calculated by this study generated a more efficient regionalization than the ERO model, minimizing travel time to access health services. This model has been adopted by the General Department of Health Planning and Development of the Mexican Ministry of Health for the implementation of the Health Sector Infrastructure Master Plan.

[Regional differences in breast and cervical cancer mortality in Mexico between 1979-2006]. / Diferencias regionales en la mortalidad por cáncer de mama y cérvix en México entre 1979 y 2006.

OBJECTIVE: Explore the regional differences in breast (BC) and cervical cancer (CC) mortality in Mexico. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We estimated mortality trends for BC and CC using probabilistic models adjusted by state marginalization level and urban and rural residence. RESULTS: BC mortality shows a rising trend, from a rate of 5.6 deaths per 100000 women in 1979 to 10.1 in 2006. The CC mortality rate reached a peak in 1989 and after this decreased significantly to 9.9 in 2006. The highest BC mortality rates are found in Mexico City (13.2) and the northern part of the country (11.8). As for CC, the highest mortality rates are found in the south (11.9 per 100000 women the). DISCUSSION: The number of BC cases are increased gradually at the national level during the last three decades and high rates of CC mortality persist in marginalized areas.

Decreasing cervical cancer mortality in Mexico: effect of Papanicolaou coverage, birthrate, and the importance of diagnostic validity of cytology.

BACKGROUND: The reduction in cervical cancer mortality in developed countries has been attributed to well-organized, population-based prevention and control programs that incorporate screening with the Papanicolaou (Pap) smear. In Mexico, there has been a decrease in cervical cancer mortality, but it is unclear what factors have prompted this reduction. METHODS: Using data from national indicators, we determined the correlation between cervical cancer mortality rates and Pap coverage, birthrate, and gross national product, using a linear regression model. We determined relative risk of dying of cervical cancer according to place of residence (rural/urban, region) using a Poisson model. We also estimated Pap smear coverage using national survey data and evaluated the validity and reproducibility of Pap smear diagnosis. RESULTS: An increase in Pap coverage (beta= -0.069) and a decrease in birthrate (beta=0.054) correlate with decreasing cervical cancer mortality in Mexico. Self-reported Pap smear rates in the last 12 months vary from 27.4% to 48.1%. Women who live in the central (relative risk, 1.04) and especially the southern (relative risk, 1.47) parts of Mexico have a greater relative risk of dying of cervical cancer than those who live in the north. There is a high incidence of false negatives in cervical cytology laboratories in Mexico; the percentage of false negatives varies from 3.33% to 53.13%. CONCLUSIONS: The decrease in cervical cancer mortality observed in Mexico is proportional to increasing Pap coverage and decreasing birthrate. Accreditation of cervical cytology laboratories is needed to improve diagnostic precision.