Epidemiology and socio-demographic risk factors of self-immolation: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Self-immolation or self-inflicted burn is the most tragic and violent method of suicide. The higher prevalence of this dramatic phenomenon in Iran is a serious social and health problem. In this study, we conducted a meta-analysis to combine the results from available studies to examine the epidemiology and socio-demographic characteristics of individuals who attempted self-immolation in Iran. METHOD: Pertinent studies were identified by searching the electronic bibliographic databases including PubMed, Scopus, Science Direct, Iran Medex, Magiran, Medlib and Scientific Information Database (SID) (2000-October 2016). Meta-analysis was used to summarize the research results on socio-demographic risk factors of self-immolation in Iran. The STROBE checklist was used to assess quality of the study. The random effect model was employed in the meta-analysis to account for the observed heterogeneity among the selected studies. RESULTS: Twenty-nine studies (sample size=5717) were included in the meta-analysis. The estimated average age of individuals who attempted self-immolation was 27.31 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 25.81-28.81) years. Women account for 70% (95% CI: 64-77) of all self-immolation attempts in Iran. Thirty-nine (95% CI: 34-43) per cent of all self-immolation were among singles. Nineteen (95% CI: 16-22) per cent of self-immolators had mental disorder. Meta-regression model showed that the average age of individuals who attempted self-immolation increased significantly over the period between 2000 to 2016 (P-value=0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicated that individuals who attempted self-immolation in Iran were mainly women, married and young adults.

Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.

BACKGROUND: Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. METHODS: A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. RESULTS: A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants' accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0)12, and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1)12, respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). CONCLUSION: Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the accidents during the high-risk periods in order to control and decrease the rate of the injuries.

The study of waiting time to first pregnancy in the south of Iran: A parametric frailty model approach.

BACKGROUND: Time to first pregnancy (TTFP) has never been studied in an Iranian setting. Lifestyle, occupational and environmental factors have been suggested to affect the female reproduction. OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to measure TTFP in the south of Iran and survey the effects of several similar factors on TTFP by frailty models. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The data on TTFP were available for 882 women who were randomly selected from the rural population (the south of Iran). Only the first and the planned pregnancies of every woman were included. The data were collected retrospectively by using self-administered questionnaires. Frailty and shared frailty models were used to determine which factors had the highest impact on TTFP. RESULTS: The median TTFP was 6.4 months and several factors were surveyed. However, only the age of marriage, height, maternal education and regularity of menstruation prior to conception were selected in the multivariable models. CONCLUSION: Among the several factors which were included in the study, the result of frailty model showed that the height, age of marriage and regular menstruation seemed more notable predictors of TTFP.