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1.
J Infect Dis ; 2024 May 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38723107

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Influenza virus remains a threat to human health, but gaps remain in our knowledge of the humoral correlates of protection against influenza virus A/H3N2, limiting our ability to generate effective, broadly protective vaccines. The role of antibodies against the hemagglutinin (HA) stalk, a highly conserved but immunologically sub-dominant region, has not been established for influenza virus A/H3N2. METHODS: Household transmission studies were conducted in Managua, Nicaragua across three influenza seasons. Household contacts were tested for influenza virus infection using RT-PCR. We compared pre-existing antibody levels against full-length hemagglutinin (FLHA), HA stalk, and neuraminidase (NA) measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), along with HA inhibition assay (HAI) titers, between infected and uninfected participants. RESULTS: A total of 899 individuals participated in household activation, with 329 infections occurring. A four-fold increase in initial HA stalk titers was independently associated with an 18% decrease in the risk of infection (OR=0.82, 95%CI 0.68-0.98, p=0.04). In adults, anti-HA stalk antibodies were independently associated with protection (OR=0.72, 95%CI 0.54-0.95, p=0.02). However, in 0-14-year-olds, anti-NA antibodies (OR=0.67, 95%CI 0.53-0.85, p<0.01) were associated with protection against infection, but anti-HA stalk antibodies were not. CONCLUSIONS: The HA stalk is an independent correlate of protection against A/H3N2 infection, though this association is age dependent. Our results support the continued exploration of the HA stalk as a target for broadly protective influenza vaccines but suggest that the relative benefits may depend on age and influenza virus exposure history.

2.
Clin Infect Dis ; 76(12): 2126-2133, 2023 06 16.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36774538

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The impact of infection-induced immunity on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission has not been well established. Here we estimate the effects of prior infection induced immunity in adults and children on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in households. METHODS: We conducted a household cohort study from March 2020-November 2022 in Managua, Nicaragua; following a housheold SARS-CoV-2 infection, household members are closely monitored for infection. We estimate the association of time period, age, symptoms, and prior infection with secondary attack risk. RESULTS: Overall, transmission occurred in 70.2% of households, 40.9% of household contacts were infected, and the secondary attack risk ranged from 8.1% to 13.9% depending on the time period. Symptomatic infected individuals were more infectious (rate ratio [RR] 21.2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.4-60.7) and participants with a prior infection were half as likely to be infected compared to naïve individuals (RR 0.52, 95% CI:.38-.70). In models stratified by age, prior infection was associated with decreased infectivity in adults and adolescents (secondary attack risk [SAR] 12.3, 95% CI: 10.3, 14.8 vs 17.5, 95% CI: 14.8, 20.7). However, although young children were less likely to transmit, neither prior infection nor symptom presentation was associated with infectivity. During the Omicron era, infection-induced immunity remained protective against infection. CONCLUSIONS: Infection-induced immunity is associated with decreased infectivity for adults and adolescents. Although young children are less infectious, prior infection and asymptomatic presentation did not reduce their infectivity as was seen in adults. As SARS-CoV-2 transitions to endemicity, children may become more important in transmission dynamics.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Adulto , Niño , Adolescente , Humanos , Preescolar , SARS-CoV-2 , Estudios de Cohortes , Composición Familiar , Nicaragua/epidemiología
3.
Clin Infect Dis ; 75(1): e257-e266, 2022 08 24.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34411230

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: There are few data on the full spectrum of disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection across the lifespan from community-based or nonclinical settings. METHODS: We followed 2338 people in Managua, Nicaragua, aged <94 years from March 2020 through March 2021. SARS-CoV-2 infection was identified through real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or through enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Disease presentation was assessed at the time of infection or retrospectively by survey at the time of blood collection. RESULTS: There was a large epidemic that peaked between March and August 2020. In total, 129 RT-PCR-positive infections were detected, for an overall incidence rate of 5.3 infections per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.4-6.3). Seroprevalence was 56.7% (95% CI, 53.5%-60.1%) and was consistent from age 11 through adulthood but was lower in children aged ≤10 years. Overall, 31.0% of the infections were symptomatic, with 54.7% mild, 41.6% moderate, and 3.7% severe. There were 2 deaths that were likely due to SARS-CoV-2 infection, yielding an infection fatality rate of 0.2%. Antibody titers exhibited a J-shaped curve with respect to age, with the lowest titers observed among older children and young adults and the highest among older adults. When compared to SARS-CoV-2-seronegative individuals, SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity at the midyear sample was associated with 93.6% protection from symptomatic reinfection (95% CI, 51.1%-99.2%). CONCLUSIONS: This population exhibited a very high SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity with lower-than-expected severity, and immunity from natural infection was protective against symptomatic reinfection.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , COVID-19/epidemiología , Niño , Humanos , Reinfección/epidemiología , Estudios Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2 , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos , Adulto Joven
4.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 115(37): 9294-9299, 2018 09 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30150394

RESUMEN

In 2015, a Zika epidemic in Brazil began spreading throughout the Americas. Zika virus (ZIKV) entered Managua, Nicaragua, in January 2016 and caused an epidemic that peaked in July-September 2016. ZIKV seropositivity was estimated among participants of pediatric (n = 3,740) and household (n = 2,147) cohort studies, including an adult-only subset from the household cohort (n = 1,074), in Managua. Seropositivity was based on a highly sensitive and specific assay, the Zika NS1 blockade-of-binding ELISA, which can be used in dengue-endemic populations. Overall seropositivity for the pediatric (ages 2-14), household (ages 2-80), and adult (ages 15-80) cohorts was 36, 46, and 56%, respectively. Trend, risk factor, and contour mapping analyses demonstrated that ZIKV seroprevalence increased nonlinearly with age and that body surface area was statistically associated with increasing seroprevalence in children. ZIKV seropositivity was higher in females than in males across almost all ages, with adjusted prevalence ratios in children and adults of 1.11 (95% CI: 1.02-1.21) and 1.14 (95% CI: 1.01-1.28), respectively. No household-level risk factors were statistically significant in multivariate analyses. A spatial analysis revealed a 10-15% difference in the risk of ZIKV infections across our 3-km-wide study site, suggesting that ZIKV infection risk varies at small spatial scales. To our knowledge, this is the largest ZIKV seroprevalence study reported in the Americas, and the only one in Central America and in children to date. It reveals a high level of immunity against ZIKV in Managua as a result of the 2016 epidemic, making a second large Zika epidemic unlikely in the near future.


Asunto(s)
Epidemias , Infección por el Virus Zika/epidemiología , Virus Zika , Adolescente , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Nicaragua/epidemiología , Factores de Riesgo , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos , Factores Sexuales
7.
medRxiv ; 2024 Jun 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38946969

RESUMEN

Immune responses against neuraminidase (NA) are of great interest for developing more robust influenza vaccines, but the role of anti-NA antibodies on influenza infectivity has not been established. We conducted household transmission studies in Managua, Nicaragua to examine the impact of anti-NA antibodies on influenza A/H3N2 susceptibility and infectivity. Analyzing these data with mathematical models capturing household transmission dynamics and their drivers, we estimated that having higher preexisting antibody levels against the hemagglutinin (HA) head, HA stalk, and NA was associated with reduced susceptibility to infection (relative susceptibility 0.67, 95% Credible Interval [CrI] 0.50-0.92 for HA head; 0.59, 95% CrI 0.42-0.82 for HA stalk; and 0.56, 95% CrI 0.40-0.77 for NA). Only anti-NA antibodies were associated with reduced infectivity (relative infectivity 0.36, 95% CrI 0.23-0.55). These benefits from anti-NA immunity were observed even among individuals with preexisting anti-HA immunity. These results suggest that influenza vaccines designed to elicit NA immunity in addition to hemagglutinin immunity may not only contribute to protection against infection but reduce infectivity of vaccinated individuals upon infection.

8.
medRxiv ; 2024 Jul 31.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38405964

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Dengue virus, a major global health threat, consists of four serotypes (DENV1-4) that cause a range of clinical manifestations from mild to severe and potentially fatal disease. METHODS: This study, based on 19 years of data from the Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study and Pediatric Dengue Hospital-based Study in Managua, Nicaragua, investigates the relationship of serotype and immune status with dengue severity. Dengue cases were confirmed by molecular, serological, and/or virological methods, and sudy participants 6 months to 17 years old were followed during their hospital stay or as ambulatory patients. RESULTS: We enrolled a total of 15,266 participants, of whom 3,227 (21%) were positive for DENV infection. Of 2,630 cases with serotype result by RT-PCR, 557 corresponded to DENV1, 992 to DENV2, 759 to DENV3 and 322 to DENV4. Severe disease was more prevalent among secondary DENV2 and DENV4 cases, while similar disease severity was observed in both primary and secondary DENV1 and DENV3 cases. According to the 1997 World Health Organization (WHO) severity classification, both DENV2 and DENV3 caused a higher proportion of severe disease compared to other serotypes, whereas DENV3 caused the greatest percentage of severity according to the WHO-2009 classification. DENV2 was associated with increased odds of pleural effusion and low platelet count, while DENV3 was associated with both hypotensive and compensated shock. CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate differences in dengue severity by serotype and immune status and emphasize the critical need for a dengue vaccine with balanced effectiveness against all four serotypes, particularly as existing vaccines show variable efficacy by serotype and serostatus.

9.
Influenza Other Respir Viruses ; 17(1): e13074, 2023 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36457275

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Much of the world's population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2. Thus, immunity from prior infection will play a critical role in future SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We investigated the impact of infection-induced immunity on viral shedding duration and viral load. METHODS: We conducted a household cohort study in Managua, Nicaragua, with an embedded transmission study that closely monitors participants regardless of symptoms. Real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) were used to measure infections and seropositivity, respectively. Blood samples were collected twice annually and surrounding household intensive monitoring periods. We used accelerated failure time models to compare shedding times. Participants vaccinated ≥14 days prior to infection were excluded from primary analyses. RESULTS: There were 600 RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections in unvaccinated participants between May 1, 2020, and March 10, 2022, with prior ELISA data. Prior infection was associated with 48% shorter shedding times (event time ratio [ETR] 0.52, 95% CI: 0.39-0.69, mean shedding: 13.7 vs. 26.4 days). A fourfold higher anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike titer was associated with 17% shorter shedding (ETR 0.83, 95% CI: 0.78-0.90). Similarly, maximum viral loads (lowest cycle threshold [CT]) were lower for previously infected individuals (mean CT 29.8 vs. 28.0, p = 4.02 × 10-3 ), for adults and children ≥10 years, but not for children 0-9 years; there was little difference in CT levels for previously infected versus naïve adults aged above 60 years. CONCLUSIONS: Prior infection-induced immunity was associated with shorter viral shedding and lower viral loads, which may be important in the transition from pandemic to endemicity.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Adulto , Niño , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2 , Estudios de Cohortes , Esparcimiento de Virus , Prueba de COVID-19
10.
medRxiv ; 2023 Mar 16.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36993385

RESUMEN

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and subsequent interruption of influenza circulation has lowered population immunity to influenza, especially among children with few pre-pandemic exposures. We compared the incidence and severity of influenza A/H3N2 and influenza B/Victoria between 2022 and two pre-pandemic seasons and found an increased frequency of severe influenza in 2022.

11.
Influenza Other Respir Viruses ; 17(7): e13178, 2023 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37492240

RESUMEN

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and subsequent interruption of influenza circulation has lowered population immunity to influenza, especially among children with few prepandemic exposures. Using data from a prospective pediatric cohort study based in Managua, Nicaragua, we compared the incidence and severity of influenza A/H3N2 and influenza B/Victoria between 2022 and two prepandemic seasons. We found a higher incidence of A/H3N2 in older children in 2022 compared with pre-2020 and a higher proportion of severe influenza in 2022, primarily among children aged 0-4, suggesting an influence of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on influenza incidence and severity in children.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Gripe Humana , Niño , Humanos , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2 , Subtipo H3N2 del Virus de la Influenza A , Estudios de Cohortes , Estudios Prospectivos , COVID-19/epidemiología , Estaciones del Año
12.
medRxiv ; 2022 Feb 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35075460

RESUMEN

It has been proposed that as SARS-CoV-2 transitions to endemicity, children will represent the greatest proportion of SARS-Co-V-2 infections as they currently do with endemic coronavirus infections. While SARS-CoV-2 infection severity is low for children, it is unclear if SARS-CoV-2 infections are distinct in symptom presentation, duration, and severity from endemic coronavirus infections in children. We compared symptom risk and duration of endemic human coronavirus (HCoV) infections from 2011-2016 with SARS-CoV-2 infections from March 2020-September 2021 in a Nicaraguan pediatric cohort. Blood samples were collected from study participants annually in February-April. Respiratory samples were collected from participants that met testing criteria. Blood samples collected in were tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and a subset of 2011-2016 blood samples from four-year-old children were tested for endemic HCoV antibodies. Respiratory samples were tested for each of the endemic HCoVs from 2011-2016 and for SARS-CoV-2 from 2020-2021 via rt-PCR. By April 2021, 854 (49%) cohort participants were ELISA positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Most participants had antibodies against one alpha and one beta coronavirus by age four. We observed 595 symptomatic endemic HCoV infections from 2011-2016 and 121 symptomatic with SARS-CoV-2 infections from March 2020-September 2021. Symptom presentation of SARS-CoV-2 infection and endemic coronavirus infections were very similar, and SARS-CoV-2 symptomatic infections were as or less severe on average than endemic HCoV infections. This suggests that, for children, SARS-CoV-2 may be just another endemic coronavirus. However, questions about the impact of variants and the long-term effects of SARS-CoV-2 remain.

13.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35785016

RESUMEN

It has been proposed that as SARS-CoV-2 transitions to endemicity, children will represent the greatest proportion of SARS-Co-V-2 infections as they currently do with endemic coronavirus infections. While SARS-CoV-2 infection severity is low for children, it is unclear if SARS-CoV-2 infections are distinct in symptom presentation, duration, and severity from endemic coronavirus infections in children. We compared symptom risk and duration of endemic human coronavirus (HCoV) infections from 2011-2016 with SARS-CoV-2 infections from March 2020-September 2021 in a Nicaraguan pediatric cohort. Blood samples were collected from study participants annually in February-April. Respiratory samples were collected from participants that met testing criteria. Blood samples collected in were tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and a subset of 2011-2016 blood samples from four-year-old children were tested for endemic HCoV antibodies. Respiratory samples were tested for each of the endemic HCoVs from 2011-2016 and for SARS-CoV-2 from 2020-2021 via rt-PCR. By April 2021, 854 (49%) cohort participants were ELISA positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Most participants had antibodies against one alpha and one beta coronavirus by age four. We observed 595 symptomatic endemic HCoV infections from 2011-2016 and 121 symptomatic with SARS-CoV-2 infections from March 2020-September 2021. Symptom presentation of SARS-CoV-2 infection and endemic coronavirus infections were very similar, and SARS-CoV-2 symptomatic infections were as or less severe on average than endemic HCoV infections. This suggests that, for children, SARS-CoV-2 may be just another endemic coronavirus. However, questions about the impact of variants and the long-term effects of SARS-CoV-2 remain.

14.
medRxiv ; 2022 Oct 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36263069

RESUMEN

Background: Understanding the impact of infection-induced immunity on SARS-CoV-2 transmission will provide insight into the transition of SARS-CoV-2 to endemicity. Here we estimate the effects of prior infection induced immunity and children on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in households. Methods: We conducted a household cohort study between March 2020-June 2022 in Managua, Nicaragua where when one household member tests positive for SARS-CoV-2, household members are closely monitored for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Using a pairwise survival model, we estimate the association of infection period, age, symptoms, and infection-induced immunity with secondary attack risk. Results: Overall transmission occurred in 72.4% of households, 42% of household contacts were infected and the secondary attack risk was 13.0% (95% CI: 11.7, 14.6). Prior immunity did not impact the probability of transmitting SARS-CoV-2. However, participants with pre-existing infection-induced immunity were half as likely to be infected compared to naïve individuals (RR 0.53, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.72), but this reduction was not observed in children. Likewise, symptomatic infected individuals were more likely to transmit (RR 24.4, 95% CI: 7.8, 76.1); however, symptom presentation was not associated with infectivity of young children. Young children were less likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 than adults. During the omicron era, infection-induced immunity remained protective against infection. Conclusions: Infection-induced immunity is associated with protection against infection for adults and adolescents. While young children are less infectious, prior infection and asymptomatic presentation did not reduce their infectivity as was seen in adults. As SARS-CoV-2 transitions to endemicity, children may become more important in transmission dynamics. Article summary: Infection-induced immunity protects against SARS-CoV-2 infection for adolescents and adults; however, there was no protection in children. Prior immunity in an infected individual did not impact the probability they will spread SARS-CoV-2 in a household setting.

15.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 9(12): ofac642, 2022 Dec.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36519125

RESUMEN

In the first 2 years of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, influenza transmission decreased substantially worldwide, meaning that health systems were not faced with simultaneous respiratory epidemics. In 2022, however, substantial influenza transmission returned to Nicaragua where it co-circulated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, causing substantial disease burden.

16.
medRxiv ; 2022 Sep 17.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36299425

RESUMEN

In the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, influenza transmission decreased substantially worldwide meaning that health systems were not faced with simultaneous respiratory epidemics. In 2022, however, substantial influenza transmission returned to Nicaragua where it co-circulated with SARS-CoV-2 causing substantial disease burden.

17.
JAMA Netw Open ; 5(6): e2218794, 2022 06 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35759261

RESUMEN

Importance: The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on children remains unclear. Better understanding of the burden of COVID-19 among children and their risk of reinfection is crucial, as they will be among the last groups vaccinated. Objective: To characterize the burden of COVID-19 and assess how risk of symptomatic reinfection may vary by age among children. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this prospective, community-based pediatric cohort study conducted from March 1, 2020, to October 15, 2021, 1964 nonimmunocompromised children aged 0 to 14 years were enrolled by random selection from the Nicaraguan Pediatric Influenza Cohort, a community-based cohort in District 2 of Managua, Nicaragua. Additional newborn infants aged 4 weeks or younger were randomly selected and enrolled monthly via home visits. Exposures: Prior COVID-19 infection as confirmed by positive anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (receptor binding domain and spike protein) or real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-confirmed COVID-19 infection at least 60 days before current COVID-19 infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: Symptomatic COVID-19 cases confirmed by real-time RT-PCR and hospitalization within 28 days of symptom onset of a confirmed COVID-19 case. Results: This cohort study assessed 1964 children (mean [SD] age, 6.9 [4.4] years; 985 [50.2%] male). Of 1824 children who were tested, 908 (49.8%; 95% CI, 47.5%-52.1%) were seropositive during the study. There were also 207 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases, 12 (5.8%) of which were severe enough to require hospitalization. Incidence of COVID-19 was highest among children younger than 2 years (16.1 cases per 100 person-years; 95% CI, 12.5-20.5 cases per 100 person-years), which was approximately 3 times the incidence rate in any other child age group assessed. In addition, 41 symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 episodes (19.8%; 95% CI, 14.4%-25.2%) were reinfections. Conclusions and Relevance: In this prospective, community-based pediatric cohort study, rates of symptomatic and severe COVID-19 were highest among the youngest participants, with rates stabilizing at approximately 5 years of age. In addition, symptomatic reinfections represented a large proportion of symptomatic COVID-19 cases.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Adolescente , COVID-19/epidemiología , Niño , Preescolar , Estudios de Cohortes , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Nicaragua/epidemiología , Estudios Prospectivos , Reinfección
18.
medRxiv ; 2022 Jan 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35018380

RESUMEN

IMPORTANCE: The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on children remains unclear. Better understanding of the burden of COVID-19 among children and their protection against re-infection is crucial as they will be among the last groups vaccinated. OBJECTIVE: To characterize the burden of COVID-19 and assess how protection from symptomatic re-infection among children may vary by age. DESIGN: A prospective, community-based pediatric cohort study conducted from March 1, 2020 through October 15, 2021. SETTING: The Nicaraguan Pediatric Influenza Cohort is a community-based cohort in District 2 of Managua, Nicaragua. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1964 children aged 0-14 years participated in the cohort. Non-immunocompromised children were enrolled by random selection from a previous pediatric influenza cohort. Additional newborn infants aged ≤4 weeks were randomly selected and enrolled monthly, via home visits. EXPOSURES: Prior COVID-19 infection as confirmed by positive anti SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (receptor binding domain [RBD] and spike protein) or real time RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 infection ≥60 days prior to current COVID-19. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Symptomatic COVID-19 cases confirmed by real time RT-PCR and hospitalization within 28 days of symptom onset of confirmed COVID-19 case. RESULTS: Overall, 49.8% of children tested were seropositive over the course of the study. There were also 207 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases, 12 (6.4%) of which were severe enough to require hospitalization. Incidence of COVID-19 was highest among children aged <2 years-16.1 per 100 person-years (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 12.5, 20.5)-approximately three times that of children in any other age group assessed. Additionally, 41 (19.8%) symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 episodes were re-infections, with younger children slightly more protected against symptomatic reinfection. Among children aged 6-59 months, protection was 61% (Rate Ratio [RR]:0.39, 95% CI:0.2,0.8), while protection among children aged 5-9 and 10-14 years was 64% (RR:0.36,0.2,0.7), and 49% (RR:0.51,0.3-0.9), respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this prospective community-based pediatric cohort rates of symptomatic and severe COVID-19 were highest among the youngest participants, with rates stabilizing around age 5. Reinfections represent a large proportion of PCR-positive cases, with children <10 years displaying greater protection from symptomatic reinfection. A vaccine for children <5 years is urgently needed. KEY POINTS: Question: What is the burden of COVID-19 among young children and how does protection from re-infection vary with age?Findings: In this study of 1964 children aged 0-14 years children <5 years had the highest rates of symptomatic and severe COVID-19 while also displaying greater protection against re-infection compared to children ≥10 years.Meaning: Given their greater risk of infection and severe disease compared to older children, effective vaccines against COVID-19 are urgently needed for children under 5.

19.
medRxiv ; 2022 Mar 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34341804

RESUMEN

Accurate tracing of epidemic spread over space enables effective control measures. We examined three metrics of infection and disease in a pediatric cohort (N≈3,000) over two chikungunya and one Zika epidemic, and in a household cohort (N=1,793) over one COVID-19 epidemic in Managua, Nicaragua. We compared spatial incidence rates (cases/total population), infection risks (infections/total population), and disease risks (cases/infected population). We used generalized additive and mixed-effects models, Kulldorf's spatial scan statistic, and intracluster correlation coefficients. Across different analyses and all epidemics, incidence rates considerably underestimated infection and disease risks, producing large and spatially non-uniform biases distinct from biases due to incomplete case ascertainment. Infection and disease risks exhibited distinct spatial patterns, and incidence clusters inconsistently identified areas of either risk. While incidence rates are commonly used to infer infection and disease risk in a population, we find that this can induce substantial biases and adversely impact policies to control epidemics.

20.
medRxiv ; 2021 Nov 24.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34845458

RESUMEN

Background: An immune correlate of protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection is urgently needed. Methods: We used an ongoing household cohort with an embedded transmission study that closely monitors participants regardless of symptom status. Real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) were used to measure infections and seropositivity. Sequencing was performed to determine circulating strains of SARS-CoV-2. We investigated the protection associated with seropositivity resulting from prior infection, the anti-spike antibody titers needed for protection, and we compared the severity of first and second infections. Results: In March 2021, 62.3% of the cohort was seropositive. After March 2021, gamma and delta variants predominated. Seropositivity was associated with 69.2% protection from any infection (95% CI: 60.7%-75.9%), with higher protection against moderate or severe infection (79.4%, 95% CI: 64.9%-87.9%). Anti-spike titers of 327 and 2,551 were associated with 50% and 80% protection from any infection; titers of 284 and 656 were sufficient for protection against moderate or severe disease. Second infections were less severe than first infections (Relative Risk (RR) of moderated or severe disease: 0.6, 95% CI: 0.38-0.98; RR of subclinical disease:1.9, 95% CI: 1.33-2.73). Conclusions: Prior infection-induced immunity is protective against infection when predominantly gamma and delta SARS-CoV-2 circulated. The protective antibody titers presented may be useful for vaccine policy and control measures. While second infections were somewhat less severe, they were not as mild as ideal. A strategy involving vaccination will be needed to ease the burden of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

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