Update: Product, Substance-Use, and Demographic Characteristics of Hospitalized Patients in a Nationwide Outbreak of E-cigarette, or Vaping, Product Use-Associated Lung Injury - United States, August 2019-January 2020.

CDC, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), state and local health departments, and public health and clinical stakeholders continue to investigate a nationwide outbreak of e-cigarette, or vaping, product use-associated lung injury (EVALI) (1). EVALI patients in Illinois, Utah, and Wisconsin acquired tetrahydrocannabinol (THC)-containing products primarily from informal sources (2,3). This report updates demographic characteristics and self-reported sources of THC- and nicotine-containing e-cigarette, or vaping, products derived from EVALI patient data reported to CDC by state health departments. As of January 7, 2020, among 1,979 (76%) patients with available data on substance use, a total of 1,620 (82%) reported using any THC-containing products, including 665 (34%) who reported exclusive THC-containing product use. Use of any nicotine-containing products was reported by 1,128 (57%) patients, including 264 (13%) who reported exclusive nicotine-containing product use. Among 809 (50%) patients reporting data on the source of THC-containing products, 131 (16%) reported acquiring their products from only commercial sources (i.e., recreational dispensaries, medical dispensaries, or both; vape or smoke shops; stores; and pop-up shops), 627 (78%) from only informal sources (i.e., friends, family, in-person or online dealers, or other sources), and 51 (6%) from both types of sources. Among 613 (54%) EVALI patients reporting nicotine-containing product use with available data on product source, 421 (69%) reported acquiring their products from only commercial sources, 103 (17%) from only informal sources, and 89 (15%) from both types of sources. Adolescents aged 13-17 years were more likely to acquire both THC- and nicotine-containing products from informal sources than were persons in older age groups. The high prevalence of acquisition of THC-containing products from informal sources by EVALI patients reinforces CDC's recommendation to not use e-cigarette, or vaping, products that contain THC, especially those acquired from informal sources. Although acquisition of nicotine-containing products through informal sources was not common overall, it was common among persons aged <18 years. While the investigation continues, CDC recommends that the best way for persons to ensure that they are not at risk is to consider refraining from the use of all e-cigarette, or vaping, products.

Update: Characteristics of a Nationwide Outbreak of E-cigarette, or Vaping, Product Use-Associated Lung Injury - United States, August 2019-January 2020.

Since August 2019, CDC, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), state and local health departments, and public health and clinical stakeholders have been investigating a nationwide outbreak of e-cigarette, or vaping, product use-associated lung injury (EVALI) (1). This report updates patient demographic characteristics, self-reported substance use, and hospitalization dates for EVALI patients reported to CDC by states, as well as the distribution of emergency department (ED) visits related to e-cigarette, or vaping, products analyzed through the National Syndromic Surveillance Program (NSSP). As of January 14, 2020, a total of 2,668 hospitalized EVALI cases had been reported to CDC. Median patient age was 24 years, and 66% were male. Overall, 82% of EVALI patients reported using any tetrahydrocannabinol (THC)-containing e-cigarette, or vaping, product (including 33% with exclusive THC-containing product use), and 57% of EVALI patients reported using any nicotine-containing product (including 14% with exclusive nicotine-containing product use). Syndromic surveillance indicates that ED visits related to e-cigarette, or vaping, products continue to decline after sharply increasing in August 2019 and peaking in September 2019. Clinicians and public health practitioners should remain vigilant for new EVALI cases. CDC recommends that persons not use THC-containing e-cigarette, or vaping, products, especially those acquired from informal sources such as friends, family members, or from in-person or online dealers. Vitamin E acetate is strongly linked to the EVALI outbreak and should not be added to any e-cigarette, or vaping, products (2). However, evidence is not sufficient to rule out the contribution of other chemicals of concern, including chemicals in either THC- or non-THC-containing products, in some reported EVALI cases.

Racial and ethnic differences in survival of pediatric patients with brain and central nervous system cancer in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among children and adolescents in the United States. Data from earlier studies suggested racial and ethnic differences in survival among pediatric patients with brain tumor. This study examined racial/ethnic difference in survival using national data and considered the effects of demographic and clinical factors. METHODS: Using National Program of Cancer Registries data, 1-, 3-, and 5-year relative survival (cancer survival in the absence of other causes of death) was calculated for patients with brain and CNS cancer aged < 20 years diagnosed during 2001-2008 and followed up through 2013. Racial and ethnic differences in survival were measured by sex, age, economic status, stage, anatomic location, and histology. Adjusted racial and ethnic difference in 5-year cancer specific survival was estimated using multivariable Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Using data from 11 302 patients, 5-year relative survival was 77.6% for non-Hispanic white patients, 69.8% for non-Hispanic black patients, and 72.9% for Hispanic patients. Differences in relative survival by race/ethnicity existed within all demographic groups. Based on multivariable analysis, non-Hispanic black patients had a higher risk of death at 5 years after diagnosis compared to non-Hispanic white patients (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.2, 95% confidence interval, 1.1-1.4). CONCLUSIONS: Pediatric brain and CNS cancer survival differed by race/ethnicity, with non-Hispanic black patients having a higher risk of death than non-Hispanic white patients. Future investigation of access to care, social and economic barriers, and host genetic factors might identify reasons for disparities in survival.

The Standardized Antimicrobial Administration Ratio: A New Metric for Measuring and Comparing Antibiotic Use.

Background: To provide a standardized, risk-adjusted method for summarizing antibiotic use (AU), enable hospitals to track their AU over time and compare their AU data to national benchmarks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed the Standardized Antimicrobial Administration Ratio (SAAR). Methods: Hospitals reporting to the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) AU Option collect and submit aggregated AU data electronically as antimicrobial days of therapy per patient days present. SAARs were developed for specific NHSN adult and pediatric patient care locations and cover five antimicrobial agent categories: (1) broad-spectrum agents predominantly used for hospital-onset/multi-drug resistant bacteria; (2) broad-spectrum agents predominantly used for community-acquired infections; (3) anti-methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus agents; (4) agents predominantly used for surgical site infection prophylaxis; and (5) all antibiotic agents. The SAAR is an observed-to-predicted use ratio where predicted use is estimated from a statistical model; a SAAR of 1 indicates that observed use and predicted use are equal. Results: Most location-level SAARs were statistically significantly different than 1: adult locations up to 52% lower than 1 and up to 41% higher than 1. Median SAARs in adult and pediatric ICUs had a range of 0.667-1.119. SAAR distributions serve as an external comparison to national SAARs. Conclusions: This is the first aggregate AU metric that uses point-of-care, antimicrobial administration data electronically reported to a national surveillance system to enable risk-adjusted, AU comparisons across multiple hospitals. Endorsed by the National Quality Forum, SAARs provide AU benchmarks that stewardship programs can use to help drive improvements.

Capture of tobacco use among population-based registries: Findings from 10 National Program of Cancer Registries states.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco use data are important when the epidemiology and prognosis of tobacco-associated cancers are being defined. Central cancer registries in 10 National Program of Cancer Registries states pilot-tested the collection of standardized tobacco use variables. This study evaluated the capture of tobacco use data and examined smoking prevalence among cancer patients. METHODS: Participating registries collected data about the use of tobacco-cigarettes, other smoked tobacco, and smokeless tobacco-for cases diagnosed during 2011-2013. The percentage of cases with known tobacco variable values was calculated, and the prevalence of tobacco use was analyzed by the primary cancer site and state. RESULTS: Among 1,646,505 incident cancer cases, 51% had known cigarette use data: 18% were current users, 31% were former users, and 51% reported never using. The percentage of cases with a known status for both other smoked tobacco and smokeless tobacco was 43%, with 97% and 98% coded as never users, respectively. The percent known for cigarette use ranged from 27% to 81% by state and improved from 47% in 2011 to 59% in 2013 for all 10 states combined. The percent known for cigarette use and the prevalence of ever smoking cigarettes were highest for laryngeal cancer and tracheal, lung, and bronchus cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer registrars ascertained cigarette use for slightly more than half of all new cancer cases, but other tobacco-related fields were less complete. Studies to evaluate the validity of specific tobacco-related variables and the ability of cancer registries to capture this information from the medical record are needed to gauge the usefulness of collecting these variables through cancer surveillance systems. Cancer 2018;124:2381-9. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Rates and Trends of Pediatric Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia - United States, 2001-2014.

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is the most prevalent cancer among children and adolescents in the United States, representing 20% of all cancers diagnosed in persons aged <20 years, or >3,000 new cases each year (1). Past studies reported increasing trends of ALL overall and among Hispanics, but these represented ≤28% of the U.S. population and did not provide state-based estimates (1-3). To describe U.S. ALL incidence rates and trends among persons aged <20 years during 2001-2014, CDC analyzed rigorous data (based on established publication criteria) from the United States Cancer Statistics data set, which includes incidence data on approximately 15,000 new cases per year of all types of invasive cancer among children and adolescents aged <20 years (4). The data set represented 98% of the U.S. population during the study period. Overall incidence of pediatric ALL during 2001-2014 was 34.0 cases per 1 million persons and among all racial/ethnic groups was highest among Hispanics (42.9 per 1 million). Both overall and among Hispanics, pediatric ALL incidence increased during 2001-2008 and remained stable during 2008-2014. ALL incidence was higher in the West than in any other U.S. Census region. State-specific data indicated that the highest rates of pediatric ALL incidence were in California, New Mexico, and Vermont. These demographic and geographic ALL incidence data might better inform public health interventions targeting the following areas: exposures to recognized risk factors for leukemia; ALL treatment, including clinical trial enrollment; survivorship care planning; and studies designed to understand the factors affecting changes in pediatric cancer incidence.

Think twice: A cognitive perspective of an antibiotic timeout intervention to improve antibiotic use.

OBJECTIVES: To understand clinicians' impressions of and decision-making processes regarding an informatics-supported antibiotic timeout program to re-evaluate the appropriateness of continuing vancomycin and piperacillin/tazobactam. METHODS: We implemented a multi-pronged informatics intervention, based on Dual Process Theory, to prompt discontinuation of unwarranted vancomycin and piperacillin/tazobactam on or after day three in a large Veterans Affairs Medical Center. Two workflow changes were introduced to facilitate cognitive deliberation about continuing antibiotics at day three: (1) teams completed an electronic template note, and (2) a paper summary of clinical and antibiotic-related information was provided to clinical teams. Shortly after starting the intervention, six focus groups were conducted with users or potential users. Interviews were recorded and transcribed. Iterative thematic analysis identified recurrent themes from feedback. RESULTS: Themes that emerged are represented by the following quotations: (1) captures and controls attention ("it reminds us to think about it"), (2) enhances informed and deliberative reasoning ("it makes you think twice"), (3) redirects decision direction ("…because [there was no indication] I just [discontinued] it without even trying"), (4) fosters autonomy and improves team empowerment ("the template… forces the team to really discuss it"), and (5) limits use of emotion-based heuristics ("my clinical concern is high enough I think they need more aggressive therapy…"). CONCLUSIONS: Requiring template completion to continue antibiotics nudged clinicians to re-assess the appropriateness of specified antibiotics. Antibiotic timeouts can encourage deliberation on overprescribed antibiotics without substantially curtailing autonomy. An effective nudge should take into account clinician's time, workflow, and thought processes.

Capture and coding of industry and occupation measures: Findings from eight National Program of Cancer Registries states.

BACKGROUND: Although data on industry and occupation (I&O) are important for understanding cancer risks, obtaining standardized data is challenging. This study describes the capture of specific I&O text and the ability of a web-based tool to translate text into standardized codes. METHODS: Data on 62 525 cancers cases received from eight National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) states were submitted to a web-based coding tool developed by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health for translation into standardized I&O codes. We determined the percentage of sufficiently analyzable codes generated by the tool. RESULTS: Using the web-based coding tool on data obtained from chart abstraction, the NPCR cancer registries achieved between 48% and 75% autocoding, but only 12-57% sufficiently analyzable codes. CONCLUSIONS: The ability to explore associations between work-related exposures and cancer is limited by current capture and coding of I&O data. Increased training of providers and registrars, as well as software enhancements, will improve the utility of I&O data.

Antibiotic Stewardship Programs in U.S. Acute Care Hospitals: Findings From the 2014 National Healthcare Safety Network Annual Hospital Survey.

BACKGROUND: The National Action Plan to Combat Antibiotic Resistant Bacteria calls for all US hospitals to improve antibiotic prescribing as a key prevention strategy for resistance and Clostridium difficile Antibiotic stewardship programs (ASPs) will be important in this effort but implementation is not well understood. METHODS: We analyzed the 2014 National Healthcare Safety Network Annual Hospital Survey to describe ASPs in US acute care hospitals as defined by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Core Elements for Hospital ASPs. Univariate analyses were used to assess stewardship infrastructure and practices by facility characteristics and a multivariate model determined factors associated with meeting all ASP core elements. RESULTS: Among 4184 US hospitals, 39% reported having an ASP that met all 7 core elements. Although hospitals with greater than 200 beds (59%) were more likely to have ASPs, 1 in 4 (25%) of hospitals with less than 50 beds reported achieving all 7 CDC-defined core elements of a comprehensive ASP. The percent of hospitals in each state that reported all seven elements ranged from 7% to 58%. In the multivariate model, written support (adjusted relative risk [RR] 7.2 [95% confidence interval [CI], 6.2-8.4]; P < .0001) or salary support (adjusted RR 1.5 [95% CI, 1.4-1.6]; P < .0001) were significantly associated with having a comprehensive ASP. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that ASP implementation varies across the United States and provide a baseline to monitor progress toward national goals. Comprehensive ASPs can be established in facilities of any size and hospital leadership support for antibiotic stewardship appears to drive the establishment of ASPs.

Point-of-prescription interventions to improve antimicrobial stewardship.

Antimicrobial stewardship is pivotal to improving patient outcomes, reducing adverse events, decreasing healthcare costs, and preventing further emergence of antimicrobial resistance. In an era in which antimicrobial resistance is increasing, judicious antimicrobial use is the responsibility of every healthcare provider. Antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASPs) have made headway in improving antimicrobial prescribing using such "top-down" methods as formulary restriction and prospective audit with feedback; however, engagement of prescribers has not been fully explored. Strategies that include frontline prescribers and other unit-based healthcare providers have the potential to expand stewardship, both to augment existing centralized ASPs and to provide alternative approaches to perform stewardship at healthcare facilities with limited resources. This review discusses interventions focusing on antimicrobial prescribing at the point of prescription as well as a pilot project to engage unit-based healthcare providers in antimicrobial stewardship.

CDC Grand Rounds: Getting Smart About Antibiotics.

Each year in the United States, approximately two million persons become infected with antibiotic-resistant bacteria, at least 23,000 persons die as a direct result of these infections, and many more die from conditions complicated by a resistant infection. Antibiotic-resistant infections contribute to poor health outcomes, higher health care costs, and use of more toxic treatments. Although emerging resistance mechanisms are being identified and resistant infections are on the rise, new antibiotic development has slowed considerably.

Taking an Antibiotic Time-out: Utilization and Usability of a Self-Stewardship Time-out Program for Renewal of Vancomycin and Piperacillin-Tazobactam.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic time-outs can promote critical thinking and greater attention to reviewing indications for continuation. OBJECTIVE: We pilot tested an antibiotic time-out program at a tertiary care teaching hospital where vancomycin and piperacillin-tazobactam continuation past day 3 had previously required infectious diseases service approval. METHODS: The time-out program consisted of 3 components: (1) an electronic antimicrobial dashboard that aggregated infection-relevant clinical data; (2) a templated note in the electronic medical record that included a structured review of antibiotic indications and that provided automatic approval of continuation of therapy when indicated; and (3) an educational and social marketing campaign. RESULTS: In the first 6 months of program implementation, vancomycin was discontinued by day 5 in 93/145 (64%) courses where a time-out was performed on day 4 versus in 96/199 (48%) 1 year prior (P = .04). Seven vancomycin continuations via template (5% of time-outs) were guideline-discordant by retrospective chart review versus none 1 year prior (P = .002). Piperacillin-tazobactam was discontinued by day 5 in 70/105 (67%) courses versus 58/93 (62%) 1 year prior (P = .55); 9 continuations (9% of time-outs) were guideline-discordant versus two 1 year prior (P = .06). A usability survey completed by 32 physicians demonstrated modest satisfaction with the overall program, antimicrobial dashboard, and renewal templates. CONCLUSIONS: By providing practitioners with clinical informatics support and guidance, the intervention increased provider confidence in making decisions to de-escalate antimicrobial therapy in ambiguous circumstances wherein they previously sought authorization for continuation from an antimicrobial steward.

National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program data validation project.

BACKGROUND: The objectives of this study were to evaluate the quality of national data generated by the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program (NBCCEDP); to assess variables collected through the program that are appropriate to use for program management, evaluation, and data analysis; and to identify potential data-quality issues. METHODS: Information was abstracted randomly from 5603 medical records selected from 6 NBCCEDP-funded state programs, and 76 categorical variables and 11 text-based breast and cervical cancer screening and diagnostic variables were collected. Concordance was estimated between abstracted data and the data collected by the NBCCEDP. Overall and outcome-specific concordance was calculated for each of the key variables. Four screening performance measures also were estimated by comparing the program data with the abstracted data. RESULTS: Basic measures of program outcomes, such as the percentage of women with cancer or with abnormal screening tests, had a high concordance rate. Variables with poor or inconsistent concordance included reported breast symptoms, receipt of fine-needle aspiration, and receipt of colposcopy with biopsy. CONCLUSIONS: The overall conclusion from this comprehensive validation project of the NBCCEDP is that, with few exceptions, the data collected from individual program sites and reported to the CDC are valid and consistent with sociodemographic and clinical data within medical records.

Estimates of young breast cancer survivors at risk for infertility in the U.S.

BACKGROUND: Standard treatments for breast cancer can impair fertility. It is unknown how many U.S. survivors are at risk for infertility. We estimated the population at risk for infertility secondary to treatment among reproductive-aged breast cancer survivors. METHODS: We combined data from three sources: the National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results cancer registry data on incident breast cancers diagnosed in women aged 15-44 years between 2004 and 2006; treatment data from NPCR's 2004 Breast and Prostate Cancer Data Quality and Patterns of Care (PoC) study; and data on women's intentions to have children from the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). RESULTS: In the cancer registry data, an average of 20,308 women with breast cancer aged <45 years were diagnosed annually. Based on estimates from PoC data, almost all of these survivors (97%, 19,416 women) were hormone receptor positive or received chemotherapy and would be at risk for infertility. These women need information about the impact of treatments on fertility. Estimates based on NSFG data suggest approximately half of these survivors (9,569 women) might want children and could benefit from fertility counseling and fertility preservation. CONCLUSION: Nearly all young breast cancer survivors in the U.S. are at risk for infertility. Physicians should discuss the potential impact of treatment on fertility. A smaller but sizeable number of at-risk survivors may be interested in having children. Given the magnitude of potential infertility and its quality-of-life implications, these survivors should have access to and potential coverage for fertility services.

Continued increase in incidence of renal cell carcinoma, especially in young patients and high grade disease: United States 2001 to 2010.

PURPOSE: More than 50,000 Americans were diagnosed with kidney and renal pelvis cancer in 2010. The National Program of Cancer Registries and SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results) combined data include cancer incidences from the entire United States. Our study presents updated incidence data, evaluates trends and adds geographic distribution to the literature. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We examined invasive, microscopically confirmed kidney and renal pelvis cancers diagnosed from 2001 to 2010 that met United States Cancer Statistics reporting criteria for each year, excluding cases diagnosed by autopsy or death certificate. Histology codes classified cases as renal cell carcinoma. Rates and trends were estimated using SEER∗Stat. RESULTS: A total of 342,501 renal cell carcinoma cases were diagnosed. The renal cell carcinoma incidence rate increased from 10.6/100,000 individuals in 2001 to 12.4/100,000 in 2010 and increased with age until ages 70 to 74 years. The incidence rate in men was almost double that in women. The annual percent change was higher in women than in men, in those 20 to 24 years old and in grade III tumors. CONCLUSIONS: The annual percent change incidence increased from 2001 to 2010. Asian/Pacific Islanders and 20 to 24-year-old individuals had the highest annual percent change. While some increase resulted from localized disease, the highest annual percent change was in grade III tumors, indicating more aggressive disease. Continued monitoring of trends and epidemiological study are warranted to determine risk factors.

Vital signs: improving antibiotic use among hospitalized patients.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotics are essential to effectively treat many hospitalized patients. However, when antibiotics are prescribed incorrectly, they offer little benefit to patients and potentially expose them to risks for complications, including Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and antibiotic-resistant infections. Information is needed on the frequency of incorrect prescribing in hospitals and how improved prescribing will benefit patients. METHODS: A national administrative database (MarketScan Hospital Drug Database) and CDC's Emerging Infections Program (EIP) data were analyzed to assess the potential for improvement of inpatient antibiotic prescribing. Variability in days of therapy for selected antibiotics reported to the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) antimicrobial use option was computed. The impact of reducing inpatient antibiotic exposure on incidence of CDI was modeled using data from two U.S. hospitals. RESULTS: In 2010, 55.7% of patients discharged from 323 hospitals received antibiotics during their hospitalization. EIP reviewed patients' records from 183 hospitals to describe inpatient antibiotic use; antibiotic prescribing potentially could be improved in 37.2% of the most common prescription scenarios reviewed. There were threefold differences in usage rates among 26 medical/surgical wards reporting to NHSN. Models estimate that the total direct and indirect effects from a 30% reduction in use of broad-spectrum antibiotics will result in a 26% reduction in CDI. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic prescribing for inpatients is common, and there is ample opportunity to improve use and patient safety by reducing incorrect antibiotic prescribing. Implications for Public Health: Hospital administrators and health-care providers can reduce potential harm and risk for antibiotic resistance by implementing formal programs to improve antibiotic prescribing in hospitals.

Meeting the information needs of lower income cancer survivors: results of a randomized control trial evaluating the american cancer society's "I can cope".

The American Cancer Society is a leader in the development of cancer survivorship resources. One resource of the American Cancer Society is the I Can Cope program, an educational program for cancer survivors and their families. Evaluations of this program indicate that cancer patients highly rate its objectives. Yet, there are gaps in the understanding of the full impact of the program on diverse cancer survivors. In this study, the authors used a randomized trial to evaluate the program. Participants included 140 low-income survivors (79% Black; 38% breast cancer) from community hospitals who were randomized to 4 sessions of I Can Cope (learning about cancer; understanding cancer treatments; relieving cancer pain; and keeping well in mind and body) or 4 sessions of a wellness intervention (humor, meditation, relaxation, and music therapy). The authors' primary outcome was "met information needs." After controlling for covariates, their analysis indicated that I Can Cope was no more effective than the wellness intervention in addressing survivor information needs relative to the learning objectives. Participants provided high overall ratings for both interventions. Self-efficacy for obtaining advice about cancer, age, education, and income were associated with information needs. Educational programs tailored to levels of self-efficacy and patient demographics may be needed.

Breast and colorectal cancer recurrence-free survival estimates in the US: Modeling versus active data collection.

BACKGROUND: A modeling method was developed to estimate recurrence-free survival using cancer registry survival data. This study aims to validate the modeled recurrence-free survival against "gold-standard" estimates from data collected by the National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) Patient-Centered Outcomes Research (PCOR) project. METHODS: We compared 5-year metastatic recurrence-free survival using modeling and empirical estimates from the PCOR project that collected disease-free status, tumor progression and recurrence for colorectal and female breast cancer cases diagnosed in 2011 in 5 U.S. state registries. To estimate empirical recurrence-free survival, we developed an algorithm that combined disease-free, recurrence, progression, and date information from NPCR-PCOR data. We applied the modeling method to relative survival for patients diagnosed with female breast and colorectal cancer in 2000-2015 in the SEER-18 areas. RESULTS: When grouping patients with stages I-III, the 5-year metastatic recurrence-free modeled and NPCR-PCOR estimates are very similar being respectively, 90.2 % and 88.6 % for female breast cancer, 74.6 % and 75.3 % for colon cancer, and 68.8 % and 68.5 % for rectum cancer. In general, the 5-year recurrence-free NPCR-PCOR and modeled estimates are still similar when controlling by stage. The modeled estimates, however, are not as accurate for recurrence-free survival in years 1-3 from diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The alignment between NPCR-PCOR and modeled estimates supports their validity and provides robust population-based estimates of 5-year metastatic recurrence-free survival for female breast, colon, and rectum cancers. The modeling approach can in principle be extended to other cancer sites to provide provisional population-based estimates of 5-year recurrence free survival.