Can overconfidence be debiased by low-probability/high-consequence events?

During the first half of 2008, China suffered three natural disasters: a heavy snow storm, an outbreak of hand-foot-mouth disease, and a severe earthquake. The aim of the present study is to explore how low-probability/high-consequence events influence overconfidence. In Study 1, opportunity samples were obtained by recruiting residents in three different types of disaster-hit areas to answer a peer-comparison probability judgment questionnaire about 1 month after the corresponding disaster occurred. The performance of 539 participants in disaster-hit areas was compared with that of 142 residents in a nondisaster area. The findings indicate that residents in disaster-hit areas were less overconfident than those in the nondisaster area on both positive and negative events. In Study 2, we surveyed a total of 336 quake-victims 4 and 11 months after the earthquake to examine whether the impact of disasters on overconfidence would decay with time. The resulting data indicate that the disaster victims became more overconfident as time elapsed. The overall findings suggest that low-probability/high-consequence events could make people less overconfident and more rational and seem to serve as a function of debiasing.

Town mouse or country mouse: identifying a town dislocation effect in Chinese urbanization.

Understanding urbanization and evaluating its impact are vital for formulating global sustainable development. The results obtained from evaluating the impact of urbanization, however, depend on the kind of measurement used. With the goal of increasing our understanding of the impact of urbanization, we developed direct and indirect subjective indicators to measure how people assess their living situation. The survey revealed that the projected endorsements and perceived social ambiance of people toward living in different types of settlements did not improve along with the urbanization level in China. The assessment scores from the city dwellers were not significantly different from those from the country areas and, more surprisingly, both were significantly higher than the assessment scores of the town dwellers, which we had expected to fall between the assessment scores of the country and city dwellers. Instead their scores were the lowest. We dubbed this V-shaped relationship the "town dislocation effect." When searching for a potential explanation for this effect, we found additional town dislocation effects in social support, loss aversion, and receptivity toward genetically modified food. Further analysis showed that only social support mediated the relationship between the three tiers of settlements (cities, country areas, and towns) and the subjective indicator. The projected endorsements yielded significant subjective assessments that could enhance our understanding of Chinese urbanization. Towns posed specific problems that require special attention.

Possible prognostic significance of p53, cyclin D1 and Ki-67 in the second primary malignancy of patients with double primary malignancies.

Patients with two types of primary cancers are rare. In this study, we investigated the expression of p53, cyclin D1, and Ki-67 in the second primary malignancy. Tissue samples were obtained from the second primary cancer site of 43 patients who met the diagnostic criteria for double primary cancer. p53, cyclin D1 and Ki-67 were determined using immunohistochemistry. Categorical variables were compared using the Chi-squared test; correlation between data scores and histology was calculated using the Spearman's rank-order correlation. The expression rates of p53, cyclin D1 and Ki-67 in the second primary malignancy site were 60.5%, 30.2% and 65.1% respectively. p53 expression showed statistically significant association with tumor occurrence interval, pathological grading and nodal metastasis (p < 0.05). Positive correlation was detected between the expression of cyclin D1 and Ki-67 and the expression of p53 (r = 0.313, p = 0.041; r = 0.319, p = 0.037, respectively). High-expressing p53 or cyclin D second primary malignancies were associated with decreased overall survival (p = 0.040 and p = 0.043, respectively). Ki-67 expression levels did not exhibit statistically significant differences in survival. In conclusion, elevated protein expression of p53, cyclin D1 and Ki-67 in the second primary malignancy is an indicator of more aggressive malignant behavior of the secondary tumor. These markers may have prognostic value in the clinical setting.

Progression of the "Psychological Typhoon Eye" and variations since the Wenchuan earthquake.

BACKGROUND: In 2008 after a massive earthquake jolted Wenchuan, China, we reported an effect that we termed a "Psychological Typhoon Eye": the closer to the center of the devastated area, the lower the level of concern felt by residents about safety and health. We now report on the progression of this effect and the development of new variations after the quake as well as investigating potential explanations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted two sequential surveys of 5,216 residents in non-devastated and devastated areas in September-October 2008 and April-May 2009. Respondents were asked five questions to assess their concerns about safety and health. A MANCOVA showed a significant inverse effect of residential devastation level on the estimated number of medical and psychological workers needed, the estimated probability of an epidemic outbreak, and the estimated number of self-protective behaviors needed (Ps<0.001), in spite of the passage of one year. The level of post-earthquake concern decreased significantly with an increase in the residential devastation level. Additionally, we observed two variations in the "Psychological Typhoon Eye" effect, in that the respondents' concern decreased with increasing relational distance between a respondent and victims who had suffered either physical or economic damage. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The previously reported effect of a "Psychological Typhoon Eye" remains robust over a 1-year period. We found that the "psychological immunization" theory did not provide a satisfactory explanation for these intriguing results. Our findings may be useful in understanding how people become resilient to threats.

Psychological typhoon eye in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.

BACKGROUND: On May 12, 2008, an earthquake measuring 8.0 on the Richter scale jolted Wenchuan, China, leading to 69,227 deaths and 374,643 injured, with 17,923 listed as missing as of Sept. 25, 2008, and shook the whole nation. We assessed the devastating effects on people's post-earthquake concern about safety and health. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From June 4 to July 15, 2008, we surveyed a convenience sample of 2,262 adults on their post-earthquake concern about safety and health. Residents in non-devastated areas (Fujian and Hunan Provinces, and Beijing) and devastated areas (Sichuan and Gansu Provinces) responded to a questionnaire of 5 questions regarding safety measures, epidemic disease, medical workers, psychological workers, and medication. The ANOVAs showed a significant effect of residential devastation level on the estimated number of safety measures needed, the estimated probability of the outbreak of an epidemic, and the estimated number of medical and psychological workers needed (Ps<0.001). The post-earthquake concern decreased significantly as the level of residential devastation increased. Because of the similarity with the meteorological phenomenon of the eye of a typhoon, we dubbed these findings a "Psychological Typhoon Eye": the closer to the center of the devastated areas, the less the concern about safety and health a resident felt. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Contrary to common perception and ripple effect that the impact of an unfortunate event decays gradually as ripples spread outward from a center, a "Psychological Typhoon Eye" effect was observed where the post-earthquake concern was at its lowest level in the extremely devastated areas. The resultant findings may have implications for Chinese governmental strategies for putting "psychological comfort" into effect.