Fathoming sea turtles: monitoring strategy evaluation to improve conservation status assessments.

Population monitoring must be accurate and reliable to correctly classify population status. For sea turtles, nesting beach surveys are often the only population-level surveys that are accessible. However, process and observation errors, compounded by delayed maturity, obscure the relationship between trends on the nesting beach and the population. We present a simulation-based tool, monitoring strategy evaluation (MoSE), to test the relationships between monitoring data and assessment accuracy, using green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas, as a case study. To explore this first application of MoSE, we apply different treatments of population impacts to virtual true populations, and sample the nests or nesters, with observation error, to test if the observation data can be used to diagnose population status accurately. Based on the observed data, we examine population trend and compare it to the known values from the operating model. We ran a series of scenarios including harvest impacts, cyclical breeding probability, and sampling biases, to see how these factors impact accuracy in estimating population trend. We explored the necessary duration of monitoring for accurate trend estimation and the probability of a false trend diagnosis. Our results suggest that disturbance type and severity can have important and persistent effects on the accuracy of population assessments drawn from monitoring nesting beaches. The underlying population phase, age classes disturbed, and impact severity influenced the accuracy of estimating population trend. At least 10 yr of monitoring data is necessary to estimate population trend accurately, and >20 yr if juvenile age classes were disturbed and the population is recovering. In general, there is a greater probability of making a false positive trend diagnosis than a false negative, but this depends on impact type and severity, population phase, and sampling duration. Improving detection rates to 90% does little to lower probability of a false trend diagnosis with shorter monitoring spans. Altogether, monitoring strategies for specific populations may be tailored based on the impact history, population phase, and environmental drivers. The MoSE is an important framework for analysis through simulation that can comprehensively test population assessments for accuracy and inform policy recommendations regarding the best monitoring strategies.

Evidence of climate-driven ecosystem reorganization in the Gulf of Mexico.

The Gulf of Mexico is one of the most ecologically and economically valuable marine ecosystems in the world and is affected by a variety of natural and anthropogenic phenomena including climate, hurricanes, coastal development, agricultural runoff, oil spills, and fishing. These complex and interacting stressors, together with the highly dynamic nature of this ecosystem, present challenges for the effective management of its resources. We analyze a compilation of over 100 indicators representing physical, biological, and economic aspects of the Gulf of Mexico and find that an ecosystem-wide reorganization occurred in the mid-1990s. Further analysis of fishery landings composition data indicates a major shift in the late 1970s coincident with the advent of US national fisheries management policy, as well as significant shifts in the mid-1960s and the mid-1990s. These latter shifts are aligned temporally with changes in a major climate mode in the Atlantic Ocean: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We provide an explanation for how the AMO may drive physical changes in the Gulf of Mexico, thus altering higher-level ecosystem dynamics. The hypotheses presented here should provide focus for further targeted studies, particularly in regard to whether and how management should adjust to different climate regimes or states of nature. Our study highlights the challenges in understanding the effects of climatic drivers against a background of multiple anthropogenic pressures, particularly in a system where these forces interact in complex and nonlinear ways.

Deepwater Horizon oil spill impacts on sea turtles could span the Atlantic.

We investigated the extent that the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill potentially affected oceanic-stage sea turtles from populations across the Atlantic. Within an ocean-circulation model, particles were backtracked from the Gulf of Mexico spill site to determine the probability of young turtles arriving in this area from major nesting beaches. The abundance of turtles in the vicinity of the oil spill was derived by forward-tracking particles from focal beaches and integrating population size, oceanic-stage duration and stage-specific survival rates. Simulations indicated that 321 401 (66 199-397 864) green (Chelonia mydas), loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and Kemp's ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) turtles were likely within the spill site. These predictions compared favourably with estimates from in-water observations recently made available to the public (though our initial predictions for Kemp's ridley were substantially lower than in-water estimates, better agreement was obtained with modifications to mimic behaviour of young Kemp's ridley turtles in the northern Gulf). Simulations predicted 75.2% (71.9-76.3%) of turtles came from Mexico, 14.8% (11-18%) from Costa Rica, 5.9% (4.8-7.9%) from countries in northern South America, 3.4% (2.4-3.5%) from the United States and 1.6% (0.6-2.0%) from West African countries. Thus, the spill's impacts may extend far beyond the current focus on the northern Gulf of Mexico.

RAD-Seq derived markers flank the shell colour and banding loci of the Cepaea nemoralis supergene.

Studies on the classic shell colour and banding polymorphism of the land snail Cepaea played a crucial role in establishing the importance of natural selection in maintaining morphological variation. Cepaea is also a pre-eminent model for ecological genetics because the outward colour and banding phenotype is entirely genetically determined, primarily by a 'supergene' of at least five loci. Unfortunately, progress in understanding the evolution and maintenance of the Cepaea polymorphism stalled, partly because of a lack of genetic markers. With a view to re-establish Cepaea as a prominent model of molecular ecology, we made six laboratory crosses of Cepaea nemoralis, five of which segregated for shell ground colour (C) and the presence or absence of bands (B). First, scoring of colour and banding in 323 individuals found no recombination between the C and B loci of the supergene. Second, using restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-Seq) of two parents and 22 offspring, we identified 44 anonymous markers putatively linked to the colour (C) and banding (B) loci. The genotype of eleven of the most promising RAD-Seq markers was independently validated in the same 22 offspring, then up to a further 146 offspring were genotyped. The closest RAD-Seq markers scored are within ~0.6 centimorgan (cM) of the C-B supergene linkage group, with the combined loci together forming a 35.8 cM linkage map of markers that flank both sides of the Cepaea C-B supergene.

Modeling juvenile sea turtle bycatch risk in commercial and recreational fisheries.

Understanding the drivers of fisheries bycatch is essential for limiting its impacts on vulnerable species. Here we present a model to estimate the relative magnitude of sea turtle bycatch in major coastal fisheries across the southeastern US based on spatiotemporal variation in fishing effort and the simulated distributions of juvenile Kemp's ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) and green (Chelonia mydas) sea turtles recruiting from oceanic to nearshore habitats. Over the period modeled (1996-2017), bycatch in recreational fisheries was estimated to be greater than the sum of bycatch that occurred in commercial fisheries that have historically been considered high risks to turtles (e.g., those using trawls, gillnets, and bottom longlines). Prioritizing engagement with recreational anglers to reduce bycatch could be especially beneficial to sea turtle populations. Applying lessons learned from efforts to protect turtles in commercial fisheries may help meet the challenges that arise from the large, diffuse recreational fishing sector.

Life-history constraints on maximum population growth for loggerhead turtles in the northwest Atlantic.

Conservation planning for protected species often relies on estimates of life-history parameters. A commonly used parameter is the instantaneous maximum population growth rate (r max) that can be used to limit removals and design recovery targets. Estimation of r max can be challenging because of limited availability of species- and population-specific data and life-history information. We applied a method proposed by Neil and Lebreton, originally developed for birds, to loggerhead turtles. The method uses age-at-first-reproduction and adult survival to estimate r max. We used a variety of datasets and matrix population models to confirm an allometric assumption required by the method, and to generate estimates of age-at-first-reproduction and adult survival. A meta-analysis was applied to parameters from reported growth curves, which were then combined with the size distribution of neophyte nesters to derive estimates of age-at-first-reproduction. Adult survival rates were obtained from an existing matrix population model. Monte Carlo simulation was then used to combine the estimates of the allometric coefficients, age-at-first-reproduction, and adult survival to obtain a probability distribution of approximate r max values. Estimated annual maximum population growth rates averaged 0.024, with a mode of 0.017 and a 95% highest density interval of 0.006-0.047. These estimates were similar to values reported by others using different methods and captured the variability in positive, annual change estimates across nesting beach sites for the northwest Atlantic loggerhead population. The use of life-history parameters has a long history in wildlife and fisheries management and conservation planning. Our estimates of r max, while having some biases and uncertainty, encompassed values presently used in recovery planning for loggerhead turtles and offer additional information for the management of endangered and threatened species.

Single-gene speciation: Mating and gene flow between mirror-image snails.

Variation in the shell coiling, or chirality, of land snails provides an opportunity to investigate the potential for "single-gene" speciation, because mating between individuals of opposite chirality is believed not possible if the snails mate in a face-to-face position. However, the evidence in support of single-gene speciation is sparse, mostly based upon single-gene mitochondrial studies and patterns of chiral variation between species. Previously, we used a theoretical model to show that as the chiral phenotype of offspring is determined by the maternal genotype, occasional chiral reversals may take place and enable gene flow between mirror image morphs, preventing speciation. Here, we show empirically that there is recent or ongoing gene flow between the different chiral types of Japanese Euhadra species. We also report evidence of mating between mirror-image morphs, directly showing the potential for gene flow. Thus, theoretical models are suggestive of gene flow between oppositely coiled snails, and our empirical study shows that they can mate and that there is gene flow in Euhadra. More than a single gene is required before chiral variation in shell coiling can be considered to have created a new species.

A critical review of twenty years' use of the resource-ratio theory.

A model of species interactions based on their use of shared resources was proposed in 1972 by Robert MacArthur and later expanded in an article (1980) and a book (1982) by David Tilman. This "resource-ratio theory" has been used to make a number of testable predictions about competition and community patterns. We reviewed 1,333 papers that cite Tilman's two publications to determine whether predictions of the resource-ratio theory have been adequately tested and to summarize their general conclusions. Most of the citations do not directly test the theory: only 26 studies provide well-designed tests of one or more predictions, resulting in 42 individual tests of predictions. Most of these tests were conducted in the laboratory or experimental microcosms and used primary producers in freshwater systems. Overall, the predictions of the resource-ratio theory were supported 75% of the time. One of the primary predictions of the model, that species dominance varies with the ratio of resource availabilities, was supported by 13 of 16 tests, but most other predictions have been insufficiently tested. We suggest that more experimental work in a variety of natural systems is seriously needed, especially studies designed to test predictions related to resource supply and consumption rates.

Avoiding Dual Agency in Clinical and Medicolegal Practice.

Mental health professionals who provide medicolegal services need to be aware of the very important differences between clinical and retained expert/forensic roles. This column offers a distinction between clinical and forensic roles in terms of responsibilities, objectives, and guiding ethical principles. Existing professional guidelines and other views from the medical literature that discourage the mixing of such roles are reviewed. The conflation of clinical and forensic roles and the attendant risks are considered, in terms of both competing interests and the possible ethical threat associated with assuming a dual role. Knowingly or unwittingly assuming a dual role is potentially harmful to the therapeutic alliance, threatens the expert's objectivity, and may jeopardize a patient's legal case. Guidance is offered as to how to avoid conflating clinical and forensic roles when compelled to provide medicolegal services.

Adaptive radiations: competition rules for Galápagos gastropods.

New islands present the perfect opportunity for a species to get a fresh start and undergo adaptive radiation. For Galápagos land snails, both competition and resource diversity have together led to opportunity knocking twice.