The one-sided explanations of a multifactorial coronavirus disease.

Short-term interventions to suppress COVID-19 completely dominate the public, political and even the professional discussion on what explains observed differences in mortality and morbidity across countries. This leads to an exaggerated view of what such measures can accomplish. Factors such as housing and social conditions as well as travel patterns are equally important but neglected aspects of the COVID-19 development. A multifactorial disease needs a multivariate analytical approach.

Interventions to suppress the coronavirus pandemic will increase unemployment and lead to many premature deaths.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Interventions to suppress the coronavirus pandemic have led to economic recession and higher unemployment, which will increase mortality and decrease quality of life. The aim of this article is to estimate the consequences on mortality and life expectancy of increased unemployment rates due to the coronavirus pandemic in Sweden and other countries. METHODS: Based on recent increases and expected future unemployment rates due to the coronavirus pandemic, results from a systematic review and data from vital statistics in Sweden, the number of premature deaths due to unemployment in Sweden have been estimated. RESULTS: Based on our assumptions, the calculations show that if the number of unemployed persons in Sweden increases by 100,000, one may expect some 1800 more premature deaths during the following 9 years. If the duration of the recession is limited to 4 years, excess deaths due to unemployment may be around 800. On average, the unemployed will lose 2 years of their remaining life expectancy. In many other countries unemployment rates have or are estimated to rise more than in Sweden, sometimes two- or threefold, suggesting hundreds of thousands of excess deaths due to unemployment. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions to suppress the coronavirus pandemic include the shut-down of economic activities and lead to increased all-cause mortality. These public health effects must be considered in the decision-making process and should be added to overall estimates of the effects of the pandemic on public health.

Follow-up of an age-period-cohort analysis on alcohol-related mortality trends in Sweden 1970-2015 with predictions to 2025.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Several studies have indicated that birth cohorts are important in explaining trends in alcohol-related mortality. An earlier study from Sweden with data up to 2002 showed that birth cohorts that grew up under periods of more liberal alcohol policies had higher alcohol-related mortality than those cohorts growing up under more restrictive time periods. In spite of increasing alcohol consumption, predictions in 2002 also indicated lower alcohol-related mortality in the future. The aim of this study is to follow-up whether the effects of birth cohorts and the predictions made for Sweden still holds using data up to 2015. METHOD: The study comprised an age-period-cohort analysis and predictions based on population predictions from Statistics Sweden. The analysis was based on all alcohol-related deaths in the Swedish population between 1969 and 2015 for the cohorts born in the decades 1920 through 1990. Data were restricted to people 15-84 years of age. In total, the analysis covered 68,341 deaths and more than 284 million person-years. RESULTS: Male and female cohorts born in the 1940s to 1950s exhibited the highest alcohol-related mortality, while those born in the 1970s continued to have the lowest alcohol-related mortality rates. The predicted mortality rates for males are still anticipated to decrease somewhat through 2025. CONCLUSIONS: The updated age-period-cohort analysis further supports the importance of focusing on restrictive alcohol policies targeting adolescents.

Dental Implant Quality Register-A possible tool to further improve implant treatment and outcome.

The Board of EAO (European Association for Osseointegration) has discussed an initiative to explore the conditions to establish a Dental Implant Register. It was suggested to bring this issue to the EAO Consensus Conference 2018 for a discussion and to possibly propose relevant and manageable parameters. This article presents some select examples from quality registers in the medical field. Based on the experience of established registers, essentially in the medical field, factors considered to be of importance, if and when establishing a Dental Implant Register are introduced and discussed.

Traumatic shaking: The role of the triad in medical investigations of suspected traumatic shaking.

The Swedish Agency for Health Technology Assessment and Assesment of Social Services (SBU) is an independent national authority, tasked by the government with assessing methods used in health, medical and dental services and social service interventions from a broad perspective, covering medical, economic, ethical and social aspects. The language in SBU's reports are adjusted to a wide audience. SBU's Board of Directors has approved the conclusions in this report. The systematic review showed the following graded results: There is limited scientific evidence that the triad (Three components of a whole. The triad associated with SBS usually comprises subdural haematoma, retinal haemorrhages and encephalopathy.) and therefore, its components can be associated with traumatic shaking (low-quality evidence). There is insufficient scientific evidence on which to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the triad in identifying traumatic shaking (very low-quality evidence). Limited scientific evidence (low-quality evidence) represents a combined assessment of studies of high or moderate quality which disclose factors that markedly weaken the evidence. It is important to note that limited scientific evidence for the reliability of a method or an effect does not imply complete lack of scientific support. Insufficient scientific evidence (very low-quality evidence) represents either a lack of studies or situations when available studies are of low quality or show contradictory results. Evaluation of the evidence was not based on formal grading of the evidence according to GRADE but on an evaluation of the total scientific basis.

Insufficient evidence for 'shaken baby syndrome' - a systematic review.

Shaken baby syndrome has typically been associated with findings of subdural haematoma, retinal haemorrhages and encephalopathy, which are referred to as the triad. During the last decade, however, the certainty with which the triad can indicate that an infant has been violently shaken has been increasingly questioned. The aim of this study was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of the triad in detecting that an infant had been shaken. The literature search was performed using PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library up to October 15, 2015. Relevant publications were assessed for the risk of bias using the QUADAS tool and were classified as having a low, moderate or high risk of bias according to predefined criteria. The reference standards were confessions or witnessed cases of shaking or accidents. The search generated 3773 abstracts, 1064 were assessed as possibly relevant and read as full texts, and 30 studies were ultimately included. Of these, 28 were assessed as having a high risk of bias, which was associated with methodological shortcomings as well as circular reasoning when classifying shaken baby cases and controls. The two studies with a moderate risk of bias used confessions and convictions when classifying shaken baby cases, but their different designs made a meta-analysis impossible. None of the studies had a low risk of bias. CONCLUSION: The systematic review indicates that there is insufficient scientific evidence on which to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the triad in identifying traumatic shaking (very low-quality evidence). It was also demonstrated that there is limited scientific evidence that the triad and therefore its components can be associated with traumatic shaking (low-quality evidence).

INFLUENCE OF HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT AND ITS MEASUREMENT.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to obtain information on methods used to measure health technology assessment (HTA) influence, decisions that were influenced, and outcomes linked to HTA. METHODS: Electronic databases were used to locate studies in which HTA influence had been demonstrated. Inclusion criteria were studies that reliably reported consideration by decision makers of HTA findings; comparative studies of technology use before and after HTA; and details of changes in policy, health outcomes, or research that could be credibly linked to an HTA. RESULTS: Fifty-one studies were selected for review. Settings were national (24), regional (12), both national and regional (3) hospitals (9), and multinational (3). The most common approach to appraisal of influence was review of policy or administrative decisions following HTA recommendations (51 percent). Eighteen studies (35 percent) reported interview or survey findings, thirteen (26 percent) reviewed administrative data, and six considered the influence of primary studies. Of 142 decisions informed by HTA, the most common types were on routine clinical practice (67 percent of studies), coverage (63 percent), and program operation (37 percent). The most frequent indications of HTA influence were on decisions related to resource allocation (59 percent), change in practice pattern (31 percent), and incorporation of HTA details in reference material (18 percent). Few publications assessed the contribution of HTA to changing patient outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The literature on HTA influence remains limited, with little on longer term effects on practice and outcomes. The reviewed publications indicated how HTA is being used in different settings and approaches to measuring its influence that might be more widely applied, such as surveys and monitoring administrative data.

Mortality, attempted suicide, re-hospitalisation and prescription refill for clozapine and other antipsychotics in Sweden-a register-based study.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to analyse prescription refill, re-hospitalisation, total mortality, mortality because of suicide and attempted suicide among patients who were taking various types of antipsychotics. METHODS: A population-based cohort study analysed all patients (n=26046) in Sweden who had been treated for schizophrenia from 2006 to 2009 with regard to re-hospitalisation and prescription refill for various types of antipsychotic treatment. A case-control study nested within the cohort analysed all-cause mortality, mortality because of suicide and attempted suicide in relation to antipsychotic use. The study adjusted for history of hospitalisation for psychiatric and medical care, attempted suicide and use of antidepressants. RESULTS: Aripiprazole users were the only ones who showed significantly lower all-cause risks of death, but so few events occurred among users of this relatively new drug that the results should be interpreted with caution. Clozapine users showed lower odds of death by suicide (odds ratio [OR]=0.45 [95%CI 0.20-0.98]) and of attempted suicide (OR=0.44 [0.28-0.70]) than haloperidol users after adjustment for age, sex and year of discharge. Olanzapine users showed approximately the same favourable pattern. Patients who used clozapine were most likely to refill prescriptions and had lower rates of re-hospitalisation. Only one death and 23 cases of agranulocytosis were reported compared with 223 suicides and 831 suicide attempts. An etiologic fraction calculation suggests that the use of clozapine rather than traditional drugs could have prevented 95 suicide attempts during the period. CONCLUSION: Clozapine and olanzapine reduce the risk of suicide, attempted suicide and re-hospitalisation.

Does health technology assessment affect policy-making and clinical practice in Sweden?

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to analyze whether health technology assessment (HTA) reports published by SBU have influenced decisions, guidelines, clinical practice, or research priorities in Sweden. METHODS: All twenty-six SBU reports between 2006 and 2010 were analyzed. For each project, we searched publications and documentation that reflected impact on decisions, guidelines, research or clinical practice. Written documentation, before-after surveys or register-based time series data were used when available. Based on a conceptual model and on the available evidence, we determined whether HTA reports had a high, moderate, or low impact. RESULTS: HTA reports influenced comprehensive decisions to a high or moderate degree. In the case of fortifying flour with folic acid to a high degree. In ten cases, HTA reports were the primary source of clinical guidelines developed by the National Board of Health and Welfare (NBHW) or professional associations. In the cases of dyspepsia and gastro-esophageal reflux, as well as mild head injury, the HTA reports had a high impact on clinical practice. It was also obvious from this review that research had been initiated as a result of the knowledge gaps identified by HTA reports. In three cases, we had no adequate documentation, suggesting that the impact of the HTA report had been low. CONCLUSIONS: Many interrelated forces change practice, but the cases presented here indicate that HTA reports have had a high impact on clinical guidelines, as well as a moderate or high impact on comprehensive decisions, the initiation of research and changes in clinical practice.

GRADE guidelines: 21 part 1. Study design, risk of bias, and indirectness in rating the certainty across a body of evidence for test accuracy.

OBJECTIVES: This article provides updated GRADE guidance about how authors of systematic reviews and health technology assessments and guideline developers can assess the results and the certainty of evidence (also known as quality of the evidence or confidence in the estimates) of a body of evidence addressing test accuracy (TA). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We present an overview of the GRADE approach and guidance for rating certainty in TA in clinical and public health and review the presentation of results of a body of evidence regarding tests. Part 1 of the two parts in this 21st guidance article about how to apply GRADE focuses on understanding study design issues in test accuracy, provide an overview of the domains, and describe risk of bias and indirectness specifically. RESULTS: Supplemented by practical examples, we describe how raters of the evidence using GRADE can evaluate study designs focusing on tests and how they apply the GRADE domains risk of bias and indirectness to a body of evidence of TA studies. CONCLUSION: Rating the certainty of a body of evidence using GRADE in Cochrane and other reviews and World Health Organization and other guidelines dealing with in TA studies helped refining our approach. The resulting guidance will help applying GRADE successfully for questions and recommendations focusing on tests.