Trends of alcohol-attributable deaths in Lithuania 2001-2021: epidemiology and policy conclusions.

BACKGROUND: Lithuania, a Baltic country in the European Union, can be characterized by high alcohol consumption and attributable burden. The aim of this contribution is to estimate the mortality burden due to alcohol use for the past two decades based on different relative risk functions, identify trends, and analyse the associations of alcohol-attributable burden with alcohol control policies and life expectancy. METHODS: The standard methodology used by the World Health Organization for estimating alcohol-attributable mortality was employed to generate mortality rates for alcohol-attributable mortality, standardized for Lithuania's 2021 population distribution. Joinpoint analysis, T-tests, correlations, and regression analyses including meta-regressions were used to describe trends and associations. RESULTS: Age-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality was high in Lithuania during the two decades between 2001 and 2021, irrespective of which relative risks were used for the estimates. Overall, there was a downward trend, mainly in males, which was associated with four years of intensive implementation of alcohol control policies in 2008, 2009, 2017, and 2018. For the remaining years, the rates of alcohol-attributable mortality were stagnant. Among males, the correlations between alcohol-attributable mortality and life expectancy were 0.90 and 0.76 for Russian and global relative risks respectively, and regression analyses indicated a significant association between changes in alcohol-attributable mortality and life expectancy, after controlling for gross domestic product. CONCLUSIONS: Male mortality and life expectancy in Lithuania were closely linked to alcohol-attributable mortality and markedly associated with strong alcohol control policies. Further implementation of such policies is predicted to lead to further improvements in life expectancy.

Using Direct and Indirect Estimates for Alcohol-Attributable Mortality: A Modelling Study Using the Example of Lithuania.

INTRODUCTION: Comparative risk assessments (CRAs) for alcohol use are based on indirect estimates of attributable harm, and usually combine country-specific exposure estimates and global risk relations derived from meta-analyses. CRAs for Eastern European countries, such as Lithuania, base their risk relations not on global risk relations, but on a large Russian cohort study. The availability of a direct estimate of alcohol-attributable mortality following the 2017 implementation of a large increase in alcohol excise taxes in Lithuania has allowed a comparison of these indirect estimates with a country-specific gold standard. METHODS: A statistical modelling study compared direct (predictions based on a time-series methodology) and indirect (predictions based on an attributable-fraction methodology) estimates of alcohol-attributable mortality before and after a large increase in alcohol excise taxes in Lithuania. Specifically, Russia-specific versus global relative risks were compared against the gold standard of time-series based predictions. RESULTS: Compared to direct estimates, indirect estimates markedly underestimated the reduction of alcohol-attributable mortality 12 months post intervention by at least 63%. While both of the indirect estimates differed markedly from the direct estimates, the Russia-specific estimates were closer to the direct estimates, primarily due to higher estimates for alcohol-attributable cardiovascular mortality. DISCUSSION: As all indirect estimates were markedly lower than direct estimates, current overall relative risks and price elasticities should be re-evaluated. In particular, global estimates should be replaced by new regional estimates based on cohort studies.

Predicting the Impact of Alcohol Taxation Increases on Mortality-A Comparison of Different Estimation Techniques.

AIMS: To examine how standard analytical approaches to model mortality outcomes of alcohol use compare to the true results using the impact of the March 2017 alcohol taxation increase in Lithuania on all-cause mortality as an example. METHODS: Four methodologies were used: two direct methodologies: (a) interrupted time-series on mortality and (b) comparing predictions based on time-series modeling with the real number of deaths for the year following the implementation of the tax increase; and two indirect methodologies: (c) combining a regression-based estimate for the impact of taxation on alcohol consumption with attributable-fraction methodology and (d) using price elasticities from meta-analyses to estimate the impact on alcohol consumption before applying attributable-fraction methodology. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: While all methodologies estimated reductions in all-cause mortality, especially for men, there was substantial variability in the level of mortality reductions predicted. The indirect methodologies had lower predictions as the meta-analyses on elasticities and risk relations seem to underestimate the true values for Lithuania. Directly estimated effects of taxation based on the actual mortalities seem to best represent the true reductions in alcohol-attributable mortality. A significant increase in alcohol excise taxation had a marked impact on all-cause mortality in Lithuania.

[Potential impact of increased alcohol taxes on the alcohol-attributable burden of disease in Germany: a modelling study]. / Potenzielle Auswirkungen erhöhter Alkoholsteuern auf die alkoholbedingte Krankheitslast in Deutschland: Eine Modellierungsstudie.

BACKGROUND: In 2019, Germany was among the countries with the highest alcohol per capita consumption in the world, which contributes significantly to the burden of disease. AIM: In this modelling study, we estimate how many alcohol-attributable diseases and deaths in Germany could have been avoided in 2019 if current alcohol excise taxes were increased by 20%, 50%, and 100%. METHODS: The starting point for the modelling was the national beverage-specific alcohol taxes. Three scenarios were modelled under the assumption that the resulting tax increase would be fully transferred to the retail prices. Beverage-specific price elasticities were used. Based on the estimated resulting decline in annual per capita consumption and the disease-specific risk functions, we modelled the avoidable incidence and mortality for alcohol-attributable diseases for 2019. Alcohol-attributable diseases of the cardiovascular and digestive systems, alcohol dependence, epilepsy, and infectious diseases as well as injuries and accidents were considered. RESULTS: Overall, doubling the beverage-specific alcohol taxes could have avoided up to 200,400 alcohol-attributable cases of disease and injury as well as 2800 deaths in Germany in 2019. This corresponds to just under 7% of the modelled new alcohol-attributable cases of disease and death in Germany. DISCUSSION: Alcohol-attributable diseases and injuries are preventable and an increase in the alcohol taxes could substantially reduce the alcohol-attributable burden of disease in Germany.

Validation of a screening test for alcohol use, the Russian Federation.

OBJECTIVE: To validate a Russian-language version of the World Health Organization's Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). METHODS: We invited 2173 patients from 21 rural and urban primary health-care centres in nine Russian regions to participate in the study (143 declined and eight were excluded). In a standardized interview, patients who had consumed alcohol in the past 12 months provided information on their sociodemographic characteristics and completed the Russian AUDIT, the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale and the Composite International Diagnostic Interview to identify problem drinking and alcohol use disorders. We assessed the feasibility of administering the test, its internal consistency and its ability to predict hazardous drinking and alcohol use disorders in primary health care in the Russian Federation. FINDINGS: Of the 2022 patients included in the study, 1497 were current drinkers with Russian AUDIT scores. The test was internally consistent with good psychometric properties (Cronbach's α : 0.842) and accurately predicted alcohol use disorders and other outcomes (area under the curve > 75%). A three-item short form of the test correlated well with the full instrument and had similar predictive power (area under the curve > 80%). We determined sex-specific thresholds for all outcomes, as non-specific thresholds resulted in few women being identified. CONCLUSION: With the validated Russian AUDIT, there is no longer a barrier to introducing screening and brief interventions into primary health care in the Russian Federation to supplement successful alcohol control policies.

Estimation of cancers caused by light to moderate alcohol consumption in the European Union.

BACKGROUND: Research has identified alcohol to be an important risk factor for several types of cancers. This study estimates the number of incident cancers attributable to alcohol consumption in the European Union (EU) in 2017, with a special focus on those caused by light to moderate drinking levels. METHODS: The attributable-fraction methodology is used to estimate the number of new cancer cases in the year 2017 in the EU caused by alcohol use, and further examines those due to light to moderate drinking levels, defined here as alcohol consumption of <20 g of pure alcohol per day. RESULTS: Light to moderate drinking levels of alcohol caused almost 23 000 new cancer cases in the EU in 2017, and accounted for 13.3% of all alcohol-attributable cancers, and 2.3% of all cases of the seven alcohol-related cancer types. Almost half of these (∼11 000 cases) were female breast cancers. Also, more than a third of the cancer cases due to light to moderate drinking resulted from a light drinking level of <1 standard drink per day (total: 37%; women: 40%; men: 32%). CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol use, including light to moderate drinking, continues to cause considerable cancer burden, and efforts should be made to reduce this burden. In addition to the alcohol control policies suggested by the World Health Organization, public information campaigns and the placement of warning labels on alcohol containers advising of the cancer risk associated with alcohol use should be initiated to increase knowledge about the alcohol-cancer link.

Fewer Cancer Cases in 4 Countries of the WHO European Region in 2018 through Increased Alcohol Excise Taxation: A Modelling Study.

INTRODUCTION: Prevention of cancer has been identified as a major public health priority for Europe, and alcohol is a leading risk factor for various types of cancer. This contribution estimates the number of cancer cases that could have potentially been averted in 2018 in 4 European countries if an increase in alcohol excise taxation had been applied. METHODS: Current country and beverage-specific excise taxation of 4 member states of the WHO European Region (Germany, Italy, Kazakhstan, and Sweden) was used as a baseline, and the potential impacts of increases of 20, 50, and 100% to current excise duties were modelled. A sensitivity analysis was performed, replacing the current tax rates in the 4 countries by those levied in Finland. The resulting increase in tax was assumed to be fully incorporated into the consumer price, and beverage-specific price elasticities of demand were obtained from meta-analyses, assuming less elasticity for heavy drinkers. Model estimates were applied to cancer incidence rates for the year 2018. RESULTS: In the 4 countries, >35,000 cancer cases in 2018 were caused by alcohol consumption, with the highest rate of alcohol-attributable cancers recorded in Germany and the lowest in Sweden. An increase in excise duties on alcohol would have significantly reduced these numbers, with between 3 and 7% of all alcohol-attributable cancer cases being averted if taxation had been increased by 100%. If the 4 countries were to adopt an excise taxation level equivalent to the one currently imposed in Finland, an even higher proportion of alcohol-attributable cancers could be avoided, with Germany alone experiencing 1,600 fewer cancer cases in 1 year. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: Increasing excise duties can markedly reduce cancer incidence in European countries.

Trends in alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality in Germany from 2000 to 2021: A modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to assess: (i) trends in alcohol-specific - that is, fully attributable - morbidity and mortality in the German adult population aged 15-69 between 2000 and 2021; and (ii) changes in alcohol-attributable disease burden - that is, fully and partially alcohol-attributable categories - for 2006, 2012, 2018 and 2021. METHODS: Morbidity data was pulled from hospitalisation and rehabilitation statistics and mortality data was pulled from the causes of death registry. Alcohol use, adjusted for unrecorded consumption, was estimated using the Epidemiological Survey of Substance Abuse and triangulated with per capita consumption from annual sales data. For major disease categories, alcohol-attributable fractions were estimated for males and females by age groups (15-29, 30-49, 50-69 years) using the comparative risk assessment methodology. RESULTS: For males and females, the age-standardised rate of alcohol-specific morbidity peaked in 2012 and decreased thereafter showing a steep decline from 2019 to 2021. The rates of alcohol-specific mortality decreased constantly from 2000 to 2019 but increased from 2019 to 2021. Compared to 2006 the age-standardised alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality rates in males and females were lower in 2021. For both sexes, the age-standardised alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality rates and the proportions of morbidity/mortality rates relative to all-cause morbidity/mortality decreased between 2006 and 2021. DISCUSSION: The declines in alcohol-attributable morbidity and mortality are in line with decreases in consumption and signal that the importance of alcohol in health service utilisation and mortality has weakened. Sex ratios in morbidity and mortality do not indicate a strong converging trend.

Reduction of Alcoholic Strength: Does It Matter for Public Health?

In this work, reduction of alcoholic strength was discussed as a means to reduce consumption and alcohol-attributable harm. Statistical modelling was conducted to (1) estimate its potential for the largest six Western and Central European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, UK); (2) calculate the increase in taxation necessary to reach this potential, and (3) estimate the mortality gains achieved with the introduction of no- or low-alcohol beverages in the UK and Spain. The high public health potential of reducing alcoholic strength was demonstrated via modelling a scenario in which the strength of all beverages was reduced by 10%, which would avert thousands of deaths in these six European countries per year. However, methods by which to achieve these gains were not clear, as the alcohol industry has shown no inclination toward reductions in the alcoholic strength of beer, wine, or spirits via a reformulation on a large scale. The increase of excise taxation to achieve the public health gains of such a reduction would result in markedly increasing prices-a situation unlikely to be implemented in Europe. Finally, the introduction of beer and wine with an alcoholic strength below 0.5% led to some substitutions of higher-strength beverages, but did not show a marked public health impact. New taxation initiatives to achieve the potential of a reduction of alcoholic strength will need to be implemented.

Assessing the impact of providing digital product information on the health risks of alcoholic beverages to the consumer at point of sale: A pilot study.

INTRODUCTION: There is an ongoing policy debate in the European Union regarding the best method of providing information to consumers on the health risks of alcohol use. One of the proposed channels is via the provision of QR codes. This study tested the usage rate of QR codes placed on point-of-sale signs in a supermarket in Barcelona, Catalonia over a 1-week period. METHODS: Nine banners with beverage-specific health warnings in large text were prominently displayed in the alcohol section of a supermarket. Each banner provided a QR code of relatively large image size that linked to a government website providing further information on alcohol-related harms. A comparison was made between the number of visits to the website and the number of customers in the supermarket (number of unique sales receipts) in a single week. RESULTS: Only 6 out of 7079 customers scanned the QR code during the week, corresponding to a usage rate of 0.085%, less than 1 per 1000. The usage rate was 2.6 per 1000 among those who purchased alcohol. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Despite the availability of prominently displayed QR codes, the overwhelming majority of customers did not make use of the QR codes to obtain further information on alcohol-related harms. This corroborates the results from other studies investigating customers' use of QR codes to obtain additional product information. Based on the current evidence, providing online access to information through QR codes will likely not reach a significant portion of consumers.

Improving alcohol management in primary health care in Mexico: A return-on-investment analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Alcohol screening, brief advice and referral to treatment (SBIRT) in primary health care is an effective strategy to decrease alcohol consumption at population level. However, there is relatively scarce evidence regarding its economic returns in non-high-income countries. The current paper aims to estimate the return-on-investment of implementing a SBIRT program in Mexican primary health-care settings. METHODS: Empirical data was collected in a quasi-experimental study, from 17 primary health-care centres in Mexico City regarding alcohol screening delivered by 145 health-care providers. This data was combined with data from a simulation study for a period of 10 years (2008 to 2017). Economic investments were calculated from a public sector health-care perspective as clinical consultation costs (salary and material costs) and program costs (set-up, adaptation, implementation strategies). Economic return was calculated as monetary gains in the public sector health-care, estimated via simulated reductions in alcohol consumption, dependent on population coverage of alcohol interventions delivered to primary health-care patients. RESULTS: Results showed that scaling up a SBIRT program in Mexico over a 10-year period would lead to positive return-on-investment values ranging between 21% in scenario 4 (confidence interval -8.6%, 79.5%) and 110% in scenario 5 (confidence interval 51.5%, 239.8%). Moreover, over the 10-year period, up to 16,000 alcohol-related deaths could be avoided as a result of implementing the program. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: SBIRT implemented at national level in Mexico may lead to substantial financial gains from a public sector health-care perspective.

Impact of introducing a minimum alcohol tax share in retail prices on alcohol-attributable mortality in the WHO European Region: A modelling study.

Background: Alcohol use and its burden constitute one of the largest public health challenges in the WHO European Region. Raising alcohol taxes is a cost-effective "best buy" measure to reduce alcohol consumption, but its implementation remains uneven. This paper provides an overview of existing tax structures in 50 countries and subregions of the Region, estimates their proportions of tax on retail prices of beer, wine, and spirits, and quantifies the number of deaths that could be averted annually if these tax shares were raised to a minimum level. Methods: Review of databases and statistical reports on taxes and mean retail prices of alcohol beverages in the Region. Affordability was calculated based on alcohol prices, adjusted for differences in purchasing power. Consumption changes and averted mortality were modelled assuming two scenarios. In Scenario 1, a minimum excise tax share level of 25% of the beverage-specific retail price was assumed for all countries. In Scenario 2, in addition to a minimum excise tax share level of 15% it was assumed that per unit of ethanol minimal retail prices were the same irrespective of alcoholic beverages (equalisation). Sensitivity analyses were conducted for different price elasticities. Findings: Alcohol is very affordable in the Region and alcohol taxes have clearly been under-utilized as a public health measure, constituting on average only 5·7%, 14·0% and 31·3% of the retail prices of wine, beer, and spirits, respectively. Tax shares were higher in the eastern part of the Region compared to the EU, where various countries did not have excise taxes on wine. Annually, the introduction of a minimum tax share of 25% (Scenario 1) could avert 40,033 (95% CI: 38,054-46,097) deaths in the WHO European Region (with 753,454,300 inhabitants older than 15 years of age). If a 15% tax share with equalisation were implemented (Scenario 2), 132,906 (95% CI: (124,691-151,674) deaths could be averted. All sensitivity analyses with different elasticities yielded outcomes close to those of the main analyses. Interpretation: Similar to tobacco taxes, increasing alcohol taxes should be considered to be a health-based measure aimed at saving lives. Many countries have hesitated to apply higher taxes to alcohol, but the present results show a clear health benefit as a result of implementing a minimum tax share. Funding: This work was supported by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (1R01AA028224) and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Institute of Neurosciences, and Mental Health and Addiction (SMN-13950).

Prevalence of alcohol use disorders in primary health-care facilities in Russia in 2019.

AIMS: To estimate prevalence of alcohol use disorders (AUD) and alcohol dependence (AD) for Russia in 2019, based on clients in primary health-care facilities. DESIGN: Cross-sectional assessment of AUD and AD. Prevalence estimates were cross-validated using a treatment multiplier methodology. SETTING: A total of 21 primary health-care facilities, including dispanserization units (population health preventive care settings). PARTICIPANTS: A total of 2022 participants (986 women and 1036 men) 18 years of age and older. MEASUREMENTS: Composite International Diagnostic Interview. FINDINGS: The prevalence of AD and AUD was 7.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 5.9-8.1%] and 12.2% (95% CI = 10.8-13.6%), respectively. Marked sex differences were observed for the prevalence of AD (women: 2.8%; 95% CI = 1.7-3.8%; men: 12.2%; 95% CI = 10.3-14.1%) and AUD (women: 6.1%; 95% CI = 4.6-7.7%; men: 19.5%; 95% CI = 17.2-21.8%). Age patterns of AD and AUD prevalence were sex-specific. Among women, the prevalence of AUD and AD was highest in the youngest age group and decreased with age. Among men, the prevalence of AUD and AD was highest among men aged 45-59 years. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the prevalence of AD as estimated using a treatment multiplier (6.5%; 95% CI = 5.0-8.9%) was similar to the estimates of the main analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Even though alcohol use has declined since 2003 in Russia, the prevalence of alcohol use disorders and alcohol dependence remains high at approximately 12 and 7%, respectively.

Alcohol taxation, alcohol consumption and cancers in Lithuania: A case study.

Aims: The aim of this contribution was to estimate the impact of the last significant alcohol taxation increase in Lithuania in 2017 on alcohol consumption, incident cancer cases, and cancer mortality, as well as the number of cancer outcomes that could have potentially been averted in 2018 had larger increases in alcohol excise taxation been applied. Design: Statistical modelling was used to estimate the change in alcohol per capita consumption following the tax increase, and alcohol-attributable fraction methodology was then used to estimate the associated cancer incidence and mortality. Potential increases of current excise duties were modelled in two steps. First, beverage-specific price elasticities of demand were used to predict the associated decreases in consumption and cancer outcomes, and second, the outcomes arising from the actual numbers and the modelled numbers were compared. Method: Data were taken from the following sources: alcohol consumption data from Statistics Lithuania and the WHO, cancer data from the International Agency of Research on Cancer, and risk relations and elasticities of demand from published meta-analyses. Results: A total of 15,857 new cancer cases (8,031 in women and 7,826 in men) and 8,534 cancer deaths (3,757 in women and 4,777 in men) were recorded in Lithuania in 2018. Using the attributable fraction methodology, we estimate that 4.8% of 761 of these new cancer cases were attributable to alcohol use (284 in women; 477 in men), as well as 5.5% or 466 cancer deaths (115 in women; 351 in men). With the taxation increase of 2017, 45 new cases and 24 deaths will be averted over the next 10 years. Further taxation increases of 100% could double the number of new cancer cases averted or saved. Conclusion: In a high-consumption European country like Lithuania, alcohol use is an important and avoidable risk factor for cancer. Taxation is an important measure to reduce the alcohol-attributable cancer burden.

Dose-Response Relationships between Levels of Alcohol Use and Risks of Mortality or Disease, for All People, by Age, Sex, and Specific Risk Factors.

Alcohol use has been causally linked to more than 200 disease and injury conditions, as defined by three-digit ICD-10 codes. The understanding of how alcohol use is related to these conditions is essential to public health and policy research. Accordingly, this study presents a narrative review of different dose-response relationships for alcohol use. Relative-risk (RR) functions were obtained from various comparative risk assessments. Two main dimensions of alcohol consumption are used to assess disease and injury risk: (1) volume of consumption, and (2) patterns of drinking, operationalized via frequency of heavy drinking occasions. Lifetime abstention was used as the reference group. Most dose-response relationships between alcohol and outcomes are monotonic, but for diabetes type 2 and ischemic diseases, there are indications of a curvilinear relationship, where light to moderate drinking is associated with lower risk compared with not drinking (i.e., RR < 1). In general, women experience a greater increase in RR per gram of alcohol consumed than men. The RR per gram of alcohol consumed was lower for people of older ages. RRs indicated that alcohol use may interact synergistically with other risk factors, in particular with socioeconomic status and other behavioural risk factors, such as smoking, obesity, or physical inactivity. The literature on the impact of genetic constitution on dose-response curves is underdeveloped, but certain genetic variants are linked to an increased RR per gram of alcohol consumed for some diseases. When developing alcohol policy measures, including low-risk drinking guidelines, dose-response relationships must be taken into consideration.

The elusiveness of representativeness in general population surveys for alcohol.

Population survey research is limited by biases introduced through the exclusion of sub-populations from the sampling frame and by non-response bias. This is a particular problem for alcohol surveys, where populations such as the homeless and the institutionalised-who consume on average more alcohol than the general population-are usually excluded, and where people who respond to alcohol surveys tend to consume less alcohol than those who do not. These biases lead to the underestimation of alcohol consumption at the population level, which can be corrected for by triangulating alcohol consumption data with population data sources (i.e. taxation and production). Other methods which account for the biases inherent in surveys include triangulation with outcomes (e.g. traffic injuries), calculation of estimates for groups which are outside common sampling frames, and combining probabilistic sampling with new methodologies, such as computer-assisted web interviews. In particular, population surveys do not attract sufficient participation numbers for certain groups, such as the marginalised urban male youths. In this situation, it may be helpful to add estimates generated via respondent-driven sampling or non-probabilistic web panels restricted to a specific group to such population surveys. Additionally, computer-assisted web interviews perform better for sensitive questions, such as those about personal alcohol use. In sum, based on the objectives, the future of survey will need to include statistical modelling, adding data from external sources for validation and combining data from various types of surveys.

Modelling the impact of increased alcohol taxation on alcohol-attributable cancers in the WHO European Region.

BACKGROUND: Reducing the alcohol-attributable cancer burden in the WHO European Region is a public health priority. This study aims to estimate the number of potentially avoidable cancers in countries of the WHO European Region in 2019 for three scenarios in which current excise duties on alcoholic beverages were increased by 20%, 50%, or 100%. METHODS: Mean prices and excise duties for beer, wine, and spirits in the Member States of the WHO European Region in 2020 were used as the baseline scenario. We assumed that increases in excise duties (20%, 50%, and 100%) were fully incorporated into the consumer price. Beverage-specific price elasticities of demand, with lower elasticities for heavy drinkers, were obtained from a meta-analysis. Model estimates were applied to alcohol exposure data for 2009 and cancer incidence and mortality rates for 2019, assuming a 10-year lag time between alcohol intake and cancer development and mortality. FINDINGS: Of 180,887 (95% Confidence interval [CI]: 160,595-201,705) new alcohol-attributable cancer cases and 85,130 (95% CI: 74,920-95,523) deaths in the WHO European Region in 2019, 5·9% (95% CI: 5·6-6·4) and 5·7% (95% CI: 5·4-6·1), respectively, could have been avoided by increasing excise duties by 100%. According to our model, alcohol-attributable female breast cancer and colorectal cancer contributed most to the avoidable cases and deaths. INTERPRETATION: Doubling current alcohol excise duties could avoid just under 6% (or 10,700 cases and 4,850 deaths) of new alcohol-attributable cancers within the WHO European Region, particularly in Member States of the European Union where excise duties are in many cases very low. FUNDING: None.

The role of alcohol use in the aetiology and progression of liver disease: A narrative review and a quantification.

ISSUES: Alcohol use has been shown to impact on various forms of liver disease, not restricted to alcoholic liver disease. APPROACH: We developed a conceptual framework based on a narrative review of the literature to identify causal associations between alcohol use and various forms of liver disease including the complex interactions of alcohol with other major risk factors. Based on this framework, we estimate the identified relations for 2017 for the USA. KEY FINDINGS: The following pathways were identified and modelled for the USA for the year 2017. Alcohol use caused 35 200 (95% uncertainty interval 32 800-37 800) incident cases of alcoholic liver cirrhosis. There were 1700 (uncertainty interval 1100-2500) acute hepatitis B and C virus (HBV and HCV) infections attributable to heavy-drinking occasions, and 14 000 (uncertainty interval 5900-19 500) chronic HBV and 1700 (uncertainty interval 700-2400) chronic HCV infections due to heavy alcohol use interfering with spontaneous clearance. Alcohol use and its interactions with other risk factors (HBV, HCV, obesity) led to 54 500 (uncertainty interval 50 900-58 400) new cases of liver cirrhosis. In addition, alcohol use caused 6600 (uncertainty interval 4200-9300) liver cancer deaths and 40 700 (uncertainty interval 36 600-44 600) liver cirrhosis deaths. IMPLICATIONS: Alcohol use causes a substantial number of incident cases and deaths from chronic liver disease, often in interaction with other risk factors. CONCLUSION: This additional disease burden is not reflected in the current alcoholic liver disease categories. Clinical work and prevention policies need to take this into consideration.