Differential patterns of reproductive and lifestyle risk factors for breast cancer according to birth cohorts among women in China, Japan and Korea.

BACKGROUND: The birth cohort effect has been suggested to influence the rate of breast cancer incidence and the trends of associated reproductive and lifestyle factors. We conducted a cohort study to determine whether a differential pattern of associations exists between certain factors and breast cancer risk based on birth cohorts. METHODS: This was a cohort study using pooled data from 12 cohort studies. We analysed associations between reproductive (menarche age, menopause age, parity and age at first delivery) and lifestyle (smoking and alcohol consumption) factors and breast cancer risk. We obtained hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis on the 1920s, 1930s, 1940s and 1950s birth cohorts. RESULTS: Parity was found to lower the risk of breast cancer in the older but not in the younger birth cohort, whereas lifestyle factors showed associations with breast cancer risk only among the participants born in the 1950s. In the younger birth cohort group, the effect size was lower for parous women compared to the other cohort groups (HR [95% CI] 0.86 [0.66-1.13] compared to 0.60 [0.49-0.73], 0.46 [0.38-0.56] and 0.62 [0.51-0.77]). Meanwhile, a higher effect size was found for smoking (1.45 [1.14-1.84] compared to 1.25 [0.99-1.58], 1.06 [0.85-1.32] and 0.86 [0.69-1.08]) and alcohol consumption (1.22 [1.01-1.48] compared to 1.10 [0.90-1.33], 1.15 [0.96-1.38], and 1.07 [0.91-1.26]). CONCLUSION: We observed different associations of parity, smoking and alcohol consumption with breast cancer risk across various birth cohorts.

Association between family history with lung cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Asia Cohort Consortium.

Family history of lung cancer (FHLC) has been widely studied but most prospective cohort studies have primarily been conducted in non-Asian countries. We assessed the association between FHLC with risk of lung cancer (LC) incidence and mortality in a population of East Asian individuals. A total of 478,354 participants from 11 population-based cohorts in the Asia Cohort Consortium were included. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 7,785 LC incident cases were identified. FHLC (any LC subtype) was associated with an increased risk of LC incidence (HR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.30-1.63). The positive association was observed in men and women (HR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.26-1.66 in men; HR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.22-1.79 in women), and in both never-smokers and ever-smokers (HR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.18-1.73 in never-smokers; HR = 1.46, 95% CI =1.27-1.67 in ever-smokers). FHLC was associated with an increased risk of lung adenocarcinoma (HR = 1.63, 95% CI: 1.36-1. 94), squamous cell carcinoma (HR = 1.88, 95% CI: 1.46-2.44), and other non-small cell LC (HR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.02-3.68). However, we found no evidence of significant effect modification by sex, smoking status, and ethnic groups. In conclusion, FHLC was associated with increased risk of LC incidence and mortality, and the associations remained consistent regardless of sex, smoking status and ethnic groups among the East Asian population.

Association of female reproductive and hormonal factors with gallbladder cancer risk in Asia: A pooled analysis of the Asia Cohort Consortium.

The female predominance of gallbladder cancer (GBC) has led to a hypothesis regarding the hormone-related aetiology of GBC. We aimed to investigate the association between female reproductive factors and GBC risk, considering birth cohorts of Asian women. We conducted a pooled analysis of 331,323 women from 12 cohorts across 4 countries (China, Japan, Korea, and Singapore) in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the association between reproductive factors (age at menarche, parity, age at first delivery, breastfeeding, and age at menopause) and GBC risk. We observed that a later age at menarche was associated with an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.16-1.70 for 17 years and older vs. 13-14 years), especially among the cohort born in 1940 and later (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.50-4.35). Among the cohort born before 1940, women with a later age at first delivery showed an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.08-2.24 for 31 years of age and older vs. 20 years of age and younger). Other reproductive factors did not show a clear association with GBC risk. Later ages at menarche and at first delivery were associated with a higher risk of GBC, and these associations varied by birth cohort.

Association between reproductive factors with lung cancer incidence and mortality: A pooled analysis of over 308,000 females in the Asia cohort consortium.

Previous studies have investigated the association between reproductive factors and lung cancer risk; however, findings have been inconsistent. In order to assess this association among Asian women, a total of 308,949 female participants from 11 prospective cohorts and four Asian countries (Japan, Korea, China, and Singapore) were included. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 3,119 primary lung cancer cases and 2247 lung cancer deaths were identified with a mean follow-up of 16.4 years. Parous women had a lower risk of lung cancer incidence and mortality as compared with nulliparous women, with HRs of 0.82 (95% CI = 0.70-0.96) and 0.78 (95% CI = 0.65-0.94). The protective association of parity and lung cancer incidence was greater among ever-smokers (HR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.49-0.87) than in never-smokers (HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.74-1.09) (P-interaction = 0.029). Compared with age at first delivery ≤20 years, older age at first delivery (21-25, ≥26 years) was associated with a lower risk of lung cancer incidence and mortality. Women who ever used hormone replacements had a higher likelihood of developing non-small cell lung cancer (HR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.02-1.68), compared to those who never used hormone replacements. Future studies are needed to assess the underlying mechanisms, the relationships within these female reproductive factors, and the potential changes in smoking habits over time.

Obesity is associated with biliary tract cancer mortality and incidence: A pooled analysis of 21 cohort studies in the Asia Cohort Consortium.

Body fatness is considered a probable risk factor for biliary tract cancer (BTC), whereas cholelithiasis is an established factor. Nevertheless, although obesity is an established risk factor for cholelithiasis, previous studies of the association of body mass index (BMI) and BTC did not take the effect of cholelithiasis fully into account. To better understand the effect of BMI on BTC, we conducted a pooled analysis using population-based cohort studies in Asians. In total, 905 530 subjects from 21 cohort studies participating in the Asia Cohort Consortium were included. BMI was categorized into four groups: underweight (<18.5 kg/m2 ); normal (18.5-22.9 kg/m2 ); overweight (23-24.9 kg/m2 ); and obese (25+ kg/m2 ). The association between BMI and BTC incidence and mortality was assessed using hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by Cox regression models with shared frailty. Mediation analysis was used to decompose the association into a direct and an indirect (mediated) effect. Compared to normal BMI, high BMI was associated with BTC mortality (HR 1.19 [CI 1.02-1.38] for males, HR 1.30 [1.14-1.49] for females). Cholelithiasis had significant interaction with BMI on BTC risk. BMI was associated with BTC risk directly and through cholelithiasis in females, whereas the association was unclear in males. When cholelithiasis was present, BMI was not associated with BTC death in either males or females. BMI was associated with BTC death among females without cholelithiasis. This study suggests BMI is associated with BTC mortality in Asians. Cholelithiasis appears to contribute to the association; and moreover, obesity appears to increase BTC risk without cholelithiasis.

Diabetes is associated with increased liver cancer incidence and mortality in adults: A report from Asia Cohort Consortium.

There has been growing evidence suggesting that diabetes may be associated with increased liver cancer risk. However, studies conducted in Asian countries are limited. This project considered data of 968,738 adults pooled from 20 cohort studies of Asia Cohort Consortium to examine the association between baseline diabetes and liver cancer incidence and mortality. Cox proportional hazard model and competing risk approach was used for pooled data. Two-stage meta-analysis across studies was also done. There were 839,194 subjects with valid data regarding liver cancer incidence (5654 liver cancer cases [48.29/100,000 person-years]), follow-up time and baseline diabetes (44,781 with diabetes [5.3%]). There were 747,198 subjects with valid data regarding liver cancer mortality (5020 liver cancer deaths [44.03/100,000 person-years]), follow-up time and baseline diabetes (43,243 with diabetes [5.8%]). Hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval [95%CI]) of liver cancer diagnosis in those with vs. without baseline diabetes was 1.97 (1.79, 2.16) (p < .0001) after adjusting for baseline age, gender, body mass index, tobacco smoking, alcohol use, and heterogeneity across studies (n = 586,072; events = 4620). Baseline diabetes was associated with increased cumulative incidence of death due to liver cancer (adjusted HR (95%CI) = 1.97 (1.79, 2.18); p < .0001) (n = 595,193; events = 4110). A two-stage meta-analytic approach showed similar results. This paper adds important population-based evidence to current literature regarding the increased incidence and mortality of liver cancer in adults with diabetes. The analysis of data pooled from 20 studies of different Asian countries and the meta-analysis across studies with large number of subjects makes the results robust.

Cost-effectiveness of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors in the treatment of diabetic nephropathy in Japan.

AIM: To assess the cost-effectiveness of diabetic nephropathy treatment with sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors in Japanese clinical practice, considering diabetes-related complications. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A population-based Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness for people with diabetic nephropathy who initiated pharmacotherapy with an SGLT2 inhibitor plus conventional treatment or conventional treatment alone, based on quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and healthcare costs. The Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes with Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation study (CREDENCE) and the Japanese Society for Dialysis Research statistical survey were the primary sources of probability and mortality, while Japanese Health Insurance Claims Data were the cost source. The state transition model included diabetic nephropathy, hospitalization due to cardiovascular disease, dialysis, and death. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to explore model uncertainty. RESULTS: Using the threshold of JPY 5 000 000 per QALY, SGLT2 inhibitor plus conventional treatment was more cost-effective than conventional treatment alone, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of JPY 654 309 per QALY. Treating 100 000 people, SGLT2 inhibitor plus conventional treatment prevented 2234 deaths and reduced 5793 fewer heart failure cases, 3967 fewer myocardial infarctions and stroke events. Sensitivity analysis affirmed the robustness of these results for patients aged under 70 years. CONCLUSIONS: The SGLT2 inhibitor treatment appeared to be cost-effective for the overall population of our study and particularly for younger patients (<70 years old). For older patients (≥70 years old), the cost-effectiveness was less clear and may require further evaluation. Decision-makers should consider this age-based heterogeneity when making recommendations about SGLT2 inhibitor treatment.

Family history and gastric cancer incidence and mortality in Asia: a pooled analysis of more than half a million participants.

BACKGROUND: The family history of gastric cancer holds important implications for cancer surveillance and prevention, yet existing evidence predominantly comes from case-control studies. We aimed to investigate the association between family history of gastric cancer and gastric cancer risk overall and by various subtypes in Asians in a prospective study. METHODS: We included 12 prospective cohorts with 550,508 participants in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate study-specific adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between family history of gastric cancer and gastric cancer incidence and mortality, then pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. Stratified analyses were performed for the anatomical subsites and histological subtypes. RESULTS: During the mean follow-up of 15.6 years, 2258 incident gastric cancers and 5194 gastric cancer deaths occurred. The risk of incident gastric cancer was higher in individuals with a family history of gastric cancer (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.32-1.58), similarly in males (1.44, 1.31-1.59) and females (1.45, 1.23-1.70). Family history of gastric cancer was associated with both cardia (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.00-1.60) and non-cardia subsites (1.49, 1.35-1.65), and with intestinal- (1.48, 1.30-1.70) and diffuse-type (1.59, 1.35-1.87) gastric cancer incidence. Positive associations were also found for gastric cancer mortality (HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.19-1.41). CONCLUSIONS: In this largest prospective study to date on family history and gastric cancer, a familial background of gastric cancer increased the risk of gastric cancer in the Asian population. Targeted education, screening, and intervention in these high-risk groups may reduce the burden of gastric cancer.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of CTZ/TAZ for the treatment of ventilated hospital-acquired bacterial pneumonia and ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Resistant bacterial infections, particularly those caused by gram-negative pathogens, are associated with high mortality and economic burdens. Ceftolozane/tazobactam demonstrated efficacy comparable to meropenem in patients with ventilated hospital-acquired bacterial pneumonia in the ASPECT-NP study. One cost-effectiveness analysis in the United States revealed that ceftolozane/tazobactam was cost effective, but no Japanese studies have been conducted. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of ceftolozane/tazobactam compared to meropenem for patients with ventilated hospital-acquired bacterial pneumonia/ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia from a health care payer perspective. METHODS: A hybrid decision-tree Markov decision-analytic model with a 5-year time horizon were developed to estimate costs and quality-adjusted life-years and to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio associated with ceftolozane/tazobactam and meropenem in the treatment of patients with ventilated hospital-acquired bacterial pneumonia/ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia. Clinical outcomes were based on the ASPECT-NP study, costs were based on the national fee schedule of 2022, and utilities were based on published data. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were also conducted to assess the robustness of our modeled estimates. RESULTS: According to our base-case analysis, compared with meropenem, ceftolozane/tazobactam increased the total costs by 424,731.22 yen (£2,626.96) and increased the quality-adjusted life-years by 0.17, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 2,548,738 yen (£15,763.94) per quality-adjusted life-year gained for ceftolozane/tazobactam compared with meropenem. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that although the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio remained below 5,000,000 yen (£30,925) for most of the parameters, the incremental net monetary benefit may have been less than 0 depending on the treatment efficacy outcome, especially the cure rate and mortality rate for MEPM and mortality rate for CTZ/TAZ. 53.4% of the PSA simulations demonstrated that CTZ/TAZ was more cost-effective than MEPM was. CONCLUSION: Although incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was below ï¿¥5,000,000 in base-case analysis, whether ceftolozane/tazobactam is a cost-effective alternative to meropenem for ventilated hospital-acquired bacterial pneumonia/ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia in Japan remains uncertain. Future research should examine the unobserved heterogeneity across patient subgroups and decision-making settings, to characterise decision uncertainty and its consequences so as to assess whether additional research is required.

Age at menarche by birth cohort: A pooled analysis of half a million women in Asia.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate changes in the age at menarche in Asian populations. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: We included 548,830 women from six countries in Asia. The data were sourced from 20 cohorts participating in the Asia Cohort Consortium (ACC) and two additional cohort studies: Japan Multi-institutional Collaborative Cohorts (J-MICC), and Japan Nurse Health Study (JNHS) with data on age at menarche. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate changes in age at menarche by birth year and by country. RESULTS: The study includes data from cohorts in six Asian countries namely, China, Iran, Japan, Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. Birth cohorts ranged from 1873 to 1995. The mean age of menarche was 14.0 years with a standard deviation (SD) of 1.4 years, ranged from 12.6 to 15.5 years. Over 100 years age at menarche showed an overall decrease in all six countries. China showed a mixed pattern of decrease, increase, and subsequent decrease from 1926 to 1960. Iran and Malaysia experienced a sharp decline between about 1985 and 1990, with APC values of -4.48 and -1.24, respectively, while Japan, South Korea, and Singapore exhibited a nearly linear decline since the 1980s, notably with an APC of -3.41 in Singapore from 1993 to 1995. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, we observed a declining age at menarche, while the pace of the change differed by country. Additional long-term observation is needed to examine the contributing factors of differences in trend across Asian countries. The study could serve as a tool to strengthen global health campaigns.

[State of commitment to universal health coverage and associated challenges].

Purpose　Since 2020, UHC2030 has undertaken a project to review the progress of UN member states in fulfilling their commitments toward achieving universal health coverage (UHC) as outlined in the 2019 UHC Political Declaration. This involves identifying countries where UHC progress is of particular concern and engaging with multi-stakeholders. This article aims to provide a concise overview and widespread introduction to the State of UHC Commitment project for public health experts in Japan, with particular emphasis on the key findings from a pilot project on voluntary national reviews.Method　In order to gauge the evidence-based accountability actions of governments toward UHC, we conducted a comprehensive review of initial five-year Voluntary National Review (VNR) reports (2016-2020, 187 reports) published at the United Nations High-level Political Forum (HLPF). This included all descriptions (quantitative and qualitative information) regarding UHC and health systems. We also compared the descriptions in the latest VNR reports (40 reports) available as of February 2021. We checked whether there have been any improvements in the evidence-based accountability of each country.Research Results　We compared the 2021 VNR reports and the first five-year VNR reports and observed an improvement in evidence-based accountability. However, considering the wealth of data released by the United Nations Statistics on UHC and health systems, these indicators have not yet been fully utilized for accountability purposes.Conclusion　Despite the UHC Political Declaration follow-up meeting and the SDGs Mid-term Review held at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2023, some UHC targets set in 2019 have been postponed to 2025. The current status of UHC progress poses challenges to achieving the 2030 goal. There is an urgent need to strengthen governments' evidence-based accountability using UN statistics and promote UHC progress by implementing the agreed Political Declaration.

A multi-centre, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of ramelteon for the prevention of postoperative delirium in elderly cancer patients: a study protocol for JORTC-PON2/J-SUPPORT2103/NCCH2103.

Postoperative delirium is an important issue in cancer patients, affecting surgical outcomes and the quality of life. Ramelteon is a melatonin receptor agonist with high affinity for MT1 and MT2 receptors. Clinical trials and observational studies in Japan, including in surgical cancer patients, have shown efficacy of ramelteon in delirium prevention, with no serious safety concerns. However, clinical trials from the USA have reported conflicting results. A Japanese phase II study investigated the efficacy and safety of ramelteon for delirium prevention following gastrectomy in patients aged ≥75 years, with findings suggesting the feasibility of a phase III trial. The aim of this multi-centre, double-blind, randomized placebo-controlled phase III trial is to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of oral ramelteon for postoperative delirium prevention in cancer patients aged ≥65 years as advanced medical care. The trial protocol is described here.

Trends in lung cancer incidence by gender, histological type and stage at diagnosis in Japan, 1993 to 2015: A multiple imputation approach.

Continued decrease in smoking prevalence and increasing use of sensitive diagnostic procedures necessitate updated monitoring of trends in lung cancer incidence in Japan. We analyzed histology- and stage-specific trends in 1993 to 2015 using data from 62 870 diagnosed cases from the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan project. After applying a multiple imputation approach to impute missing/unknown values of stage and histology, we estimated age-standardized incidence rates and applied joinpoint regression analyses. We observed long-term growth trends in adenocarcinoma (ADC) and localized cancer among both genders, long-term declining trends among men and leveling-off trends among women in small-cell carcinoma (SMC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SQC). Stratifying by gender, we observed an increase in localized ADC with average annual percentage changes (AAPC) of 4.5 (95% confidence interval: 3.9 to 5.0) and 5.7 (5.0 to 6.4), a decrease in regional ADC with AAPC of -1.5 (-2.5 to -0.6) and -2.3 (-4.6 to 0.0), but an increase in distant ADC with AAPC of 1.5 (1.1 to 1.9) and 1.6 (0.9 to 2.3) among males and females, respectively. Additionally, increasing trends in female-to-male incidence rate ratios were observed in localized ADC with significantly above one in the most recent diagnosis period. Our results revealed evidence for a partial shift from advanced to early cancer stage, which may suggest the modest effectiveness of nationwide organized screening programs. The observed increasing localized and distant ADC may be linked to improved diagnostic procedures, especially for metastasis detection. Further investigation is needed for more accurate quantification of these factors.

Multicenter epidemiological survey of pneumatosis intestinalis in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Pneumatosis intestinalis (PI) is a rare condition characterized by gas collection in the intestinal wall. We aimed to determine the etiology and affected segments associated with complications, treatment, and outcome. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter epidemiological survey using a standardized data collection sheet in Japan. Complicating PI was defined as strangulation or bowel necrosis, bowel obstruction, adynamic ileus, sepsis, shock, and massive gastrointestinal bleeding requiring blood transfusion. RESULTS: We enrolled 167 patients from 48 facilities. Multivariate analysis revealed that older age (adjusted OR, 1.05 and 95% confidence intervals [CI], 1.02-1.09, P = 0.0053) and chronic kidney disease (adjusted OR, 13.19 and 95% CI 1.04-167.62, P = 0.0468) were independent predictors of the small-bowel-involved type. Complicating PI was associated with the small-bowel-involved combined type (adjusted OR, 27.02 and 95% CI 4.80-152.01, P = 0.0002), the small-bowel-only type (adjusted OR, 3.94 and 95% CI 1.02-15.27, P = 0.0472), and symptomatic PI (adjusted OR, 16.24 and 95% CI 1.82-145.24, P = 0.0126). Oxygen therapy was performed in patients with a past history of bowel obstruction (adjusted OR, 13.77 and 95% CI 1.31-144.56, P = 0.0288) and surgery was performed in patients with complicating PI (adjusted OR, 8.93 and 95% CI 1.10-72.78, P = 0.0408). Antihypertensives (adjusted OR, 12.28 and 95% CI 1.07-140.79, P = 0.0439) and complicating PI (adjusted OR, 11.77 and 95% CI 1.053-131.526; P = 0.0453) were associated with exacerbation of PI. The complicating PI was the only indicator of death (adjusted OR, 14.40 and 95% CI 1.09-189.48, P = 0.0425). DISCUSSION: Small-bowel-involved type and symptomatic PI were associated with complications which were indicators of poor prognosis.

Mucosal healing of small intestinal stricture is associated with improved prognosis post-dilation in Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND: Small intestinal stricture is a major cause for surgery in Crohn's disease (CD). Endoscopic balloon dilation (EBD) is performed for small intestinal strictures to avoid surgery, often repeatedly. However, factors that are associated with prognosis after EBD of small intestinal strictures remain poorly investigated. Mucosal healing is the therapeutic target in CD. We aimed to investigate the impact of mucosal healing defined by the presence of ulcers at the small intestinal stricture site on the prognosis of EBD in CD patients. METHODS: We retrospectively included patients with CD who underwent initial EBD for endoscopically impassable small intestinal strictures from January 2012 to March 2020 at a single center. The association between presence of ulcer at the stricture site and surgery after EBD was examined by Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Of the 98 patients included, 63 (64.3%) had ulcer at the stricture site. 20 (31.7%) of these patients underwent surgery for the stricture in due course, whereas 4 (11.4%) of the patients without ulcer of the stricture underwent surgery. In multivariate analysis, patients with ulcer of the stricture had a significantly higher risk for surgery than those without ulcer (hazard ratio 4.84; 95% confidence interval 1.58-14.79). CONCLUSION: Mucosal healing at the stricture site indicated a favorable prognosis after EBD for small intestinal strictures in CD.

Associations of coffee and tea consumption with lung cancer risk.

Associations of coffee and tea consumption with lung cancer risk have been inconsistent, and most lung cancer cases investigated were smokers. Included in this study were over 1.1 million participants from 17 prospective cohorts. Cox regression analyses were conducted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Potential effect modifications by sex, smoking, race, cancer subtype and coffee type were assessed. After a median 8.6 years of follow-up, 20 280 incident lung cancer cases were identified. Compared with noncoffee and nontea consumption, HRs (95% CIs) associated with exclusive coffee drinkers (≥2 cups/d) among current, former and never smokers were 1.30 (1.15-1.47), 1.49 (1.27-1.74) and 1.35 (1.15-1.58), respectively. Corresponding HRs for exclusive tea drinkers (≥2 cups/d) were 1.16 (1.02-1.32), 1.10 (0.92-1.32) and 1.37 (1.17-1.61). In general, the coffee and tea associations did not differ significantly by sex, race or histologic subtype. Our findings suggest that higher consumption of coffee or tea is associated with increased lung cancer risk. However, these findings should not be assumed to be causal because of the likelihood of residual confounding by smoking, including passive smoking, and change of coffee and tea consumption after study enrolment.

Development and Validation of a Deep Neural Network for Accurate Evaluation of Endoscopic Images From Patients With Ulcerative Colitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There are intra- and interobserver variations in endoscopic assessment of ulcerative colitis (UC) and biopsies are often collected for histologic evaluation. We sought to develop a deep neural network system for consistent, objective, and real-time analysis of endoscopic images from patients with UC. METHODS: We constructed the deep neural network for evaluation of UC (DNUC) algorithm using 40,758 images of colonoscopies and 6885 biopsy results from 2012 patients with UC who underwent colonoscopy from January 2014 through March 2018 at a single center in Japan (the training set). We validated the accuracy of the DNUC algorithm in a prospective study of 875 patients with UC who underwent colonoscopy from April 2018 through April 2019, with 4187 endoscopic images and 4104 biopsy specimens. Endoscopic remission was defined as a UC endoscopic index of severity score of 0; histologic remission was defined as a Geboes score of 3 points or less. RESULTS: In the prospective study, the DNUC identified patients with endoscopic remission with 90.1% accuracy (95% confidence interval [CI] 89.2%-90.9%) and a kappa coefficient of 0.798 (95% CI 0.780-0.814), using findings reported by endoscopists as the reference standard. The intraclass correlation coefficient between the DNUC and the endoscopists for UC endoscopic index of severity scoring was 0.917 (95% CI 0.911-0.921). The DNUC identified patients in histologic remission with 92.9% accuracy (95% CI 92.1%-93.7%); the kappa coefficient between the DNUC and the biopsy result was 0.859 (95% CI 0.841-0.875). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a deep neural network for evaluation of endoscopic images from patients with UC that identified those in endoscopic remission with 90.1% accuracy and histologic remission with 92.9% accuracy. The DNUC can therefore identify patients in remission without the need for mucosal biopsy collection and analysis. Trial number: UMIN000031430.

Intravenous tacrolimus is a superior induction therapy for acute severe ulcerative colitis compared to oral tacrolimus.

BACKGROUND: Intravenous corticosteroid is the mainstay for managing acute severe ulcerative colitis, but one-third of patients do not respond to intravenous corticosteroid. Tacrolimus, a salvage therapy before colectomy, is usually orally administered, though its bioavailability is low compared intravenous administration. The efficacy of intravenous tacrolimus has not been widely studied. AIM: To determine the efficacy and safety of intravenous tacrolimus for the treatment of acute severe ulcerative colitis. METHODS: Eighty-seven hospitalized acute severe ulcerative colitis patients were enrolled for a prospective cohort study between 2009 and 2017. Sixty-five patients received intravenous tacrolimus and 22 received oral tacrolimus. The primary outcome was the achievement of clinical remission within 2 weeks. Relapse and colectomy incidence and adverse events were assessed at 24 weeks. RESULTS: Response rates of both treatments exceeded 50% but were not significantly different. The remission rate was higher in intravenous tacrolimus compared with oral tacrolimus. At 24 weeks, oral and intravenous tacrolimus showed similar relapse-free survival rates; however, colectomy-free survival rates were higher in intravenous tacrolimus compared with oral tacrolimus. CONCLUSIONS: Patients receiving intravenous tacrolimus achieved superior remission and colectomy-free survival rates compared with patients receiving oral tacrolimus. Safety was similar between the two treatments.

Study protocol for NCCH1908 (UPFRONT-trial): a prospective clinical trial to evaluate the feasibility and utility of comprehensive genomic profiling prior to the initial systemic treatment in advanced solid tumour patients.

Comprehensive genomic profiling has been approved for use in patients with advanced solid tumours; however, it is only indicated in advanced solid tumour patients without available standard chemotherapeutic treatment or those who have completed standard treatments in Japan, and there are no available data on the clinical feasibility and utility of comprehensive genomic profiling in treatment-naive patients. This multicentre, single-arm, prospective study aims to evaluate the feasibility and utility of the OncoGuide NCC Oncopanel System in treatment-naive patients with six advanced major malignancies: non-small cell lung cancer, breast cancer, gastric cancer, colon cancer, pancreatic cancer and biliary tract cancer (NCCH1908). This study (study cohort) will be compared with the other prospective observational study (control cohort), which enrols patients not receiving comprehensive genomic profiling prior to initial systemic treatment. A total of 200 patients will be enrolled in the study over 21 months. This study has been registered in the UMIN Clinical Trials Registry (www.umin.ac.jp/ctr/) (UMIN000040743). CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study, initiated in June 2020, has been registered in the UMIN Clinical Trials Registry (www.umin.ac.jp/ctr/) (registration number: UMIN000040743). We plan to enrol a total of 200 patients over a period of 21 months.

Updated Trends in Cancer in Japan: Incidence in 1985-2015 and Mortality in 1958-2018-A Sign of Decrease in Cancer Incidence.

BACKGROUND: Unlike many North American and European countries, Japan has observed a continuous increase in cancer incidence over the last few decades. We examined the most recent trends in population-based cancer incidence and mortality in Japan. METHODS: National cancer mortality data between 1958 and 2018 were obtained from published vital statistics. Cancer incidence data between 1985 and 2015 were obtained from high-quality population-based cancer registries maintained by three prefectures (Yamagata, Fukui, and Nagasaki). Trends in age-standardized rates (ASR) were examined using Joinpoint regression analysis. RESULTS: For males, all-cancer incidence increased between 1985 and 1996 (annual percent change [APC] +1.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7-1.5%), increased again in 2000-2010 (+1.3%; 95% CI, 0.9-1.8%), and then decreased until 2015 (-1.4%; 95% CI, -2.5 to -0.3%). For females, all-cancer incidence increased until 2010 (+0.8%; 95% CI, 0.6-0.9% in 1985-2004 and +2.4%; 95% CI, 1.3-3.4% in 2004-2010), and stabilized thereafter until 2015. The post-2000 increase was mainly attributable to prostate in males and breast in females, which slowed or levelled during the first decade of the 2000s. After a sustained increase, all-cancer mortality for males decreased in 1996-2013 (-1.6%; 95% CI, -1.6 to -1.5%) and accelerated thereafter until 2018 (-2.5%; 95% CI, -2.9 to -2.0%). All-cancer mortality for females decreased intermittently throughout the observation period, with the most recent APC of -1.0% (95% CI, -1.1 to -0.9%) in 2003-2018. The recent decreases in mortality in both sexes, and in incidence in males, were mainly attributable to stomach, liver, and male lung cancers. CONCLUSION: The ASR of all-cancer incidence began decreasing significantly in males and levelled off in females in 2010.