Voters and the IMF: Experimental Evidence From European Crisis Countries.

IMF interventions are often associated with rising political discontent in countries where the Fund intervenes. Studies examining this relationship, however, face the challenge of disentangling the impact of the IMF from the impact of the crisis that triggered the intervention. To address this challenge, we conduct survey experiments in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain and directly assess how voters evaluate the costs and benefits of an IMF intervention. We find that voters believe that the crisis will more likely be solved when the IMF intervenes, but they are also critical of the corresponding loss of national sovereignty. Because the former consideration, on average, dominates their assessment, IMF interventions increase the support of voters for unpopular economic policies. Nonetheless, cross-country differences suggest that continued public support for intervention hinges on the IMF's ability to deliver on its promise to help resolve the crisis.

Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions.

Identifying climate refugia is key to effective biodiversity conservation under a changing climate, especially for mountain-specialist species adapted to cold conditions and highly threatened by climate warming. We combined species distribution models (SDMs) with climate forecasts to identify climate refugia for high-elevation bird species (Lagopus muta, Anthus spinoletta, Prunella collaris, Montifringilla nivalis) in the European Alps, where the ecological effects of climate changes are particularly evident and predicted to intensify. We considered future (2041-2070) conditions (SSP585 scenario, four climate models) and identified three types of refugia: (1) in-situ refugia potentially suitable under both current and future climate conditions, ex-situ refugia suitable (2) only in the future according to all future conditions, or (3) under at least three out of four future conditions. SDMs were based on a very large, high-resolution occurrence dataset (2901-12,601 independent records for each species) collected by citizen scientists. SDMs were fitted using different algorithms, balancing statistical accuracy, ecological realism and predictive/extrapolation ability. We selected the most reliable ones based on consistency between training and testing data and extrapolation over distant areas. Future predictions revealed that all species (with the partial exception of A. spinoletta) will undergo a range contraction towards higher elevations, losing 17%-59% of their current range (larger losses in L. muta). We identified ~15,000 km2 of the Alpine region as in-situ refugia for at least three species, of which 44% are currently designated as protected areas (PAs; 18%-66% among countries). Our findings highlight the usefulness of spatially accurate data collected by citizen scientists, and the importance of model testing by extrapolating over independent areas. Climate refugia, which are only partly included within the current PAs system, should be priority sites for the conservation of Alpine high-elevation species and habitats, where habitat degradation/alteration by human activities should be prevented to ensure future suitability for alpine species.

Covariation in population trends and demography reveals targets for conservation action.

Wildlife conservation policies directed at common and widespread, but declining, species are difficult to design and implement effectively, as multiple environmental changes are likely to contribute to population declines. Conservation actions ultimately aim to influence demographic rates, but targeting actions towards feasible improvements in these is challenging in widespread species with ranges that encompass a wide range of environmental conditions. Across Europe, sharp declines in the abundance of migratory landbirds have driven international calls for action, but actions that could feasibly contribute to population recovery have yet to be identified. Targeted actions to improve conditions on poor-quality sites could be an effective approach, but only if local conditions consistently influence local demography and hence population trends. Using long-term measures of abundance and demography of breeding birds at survey sites across Europe, we show that co-occurring species with differing migration behaviours have similar directions of local population trends and magnitudes of productivity, but not survival rates. Targeted actions to boost local productivity within Europe, alongside large-scale (non-targeted) environmental protection across non-breeding ranges, could therefore help address the urgent need to halt migrant landbird declines. Such demographic routes to recovery are likely to be increasingly needed to address global wildlife declines.

Declining population trends of European mountain birds.

Mountain areas often hold special species communities, and they are high on the list of conservation concern. Global warming and changes in human land use, such as grazing pressure and afforestation, have been suggested to be major threats for biodiversity in the mountain areas, affecting species abundance and causing distribution shifts towards mountaintops. Population shifts towards poles and mountaintops have been documented in several areas, indicating that climate change is one of the key drivers of species' distribution changes. Despite the high conservation concern, relatively little is known about the population trends of species in mountain areas due to low accessibility and difficult working conditions. Thanks to the recent improvement of bird monitoring schemes around Europe, we can here report a first account of population trends of 44 bird species from four major European mountain regions: Fennoscandia, UK upland, south-western (Iberia) and south-central mountains (Alps), covering 12 countries. Overall, the mountain bird species declined significantly (-7%) during 2002-2014, which is similar to the declining rate in common birds in Europe during the same period. Mountain specialists showed a significant -10% decline in population numbers. The slope for mountain generalists was also negative, but not significantly so. The slopes of specialists and generalists did not differ from each other. Fennoscandian and Iberian populations were on average declining, while in United Kingdom and Alps, trends were nonsignificant. Temperature change or migratory behaviour was not significantly associated with regional population trends of species. Alpine habitats are highly vulnerable to climate change, and this is certainly one of the main drivers of mountain bird population trends. However, observed declines can also be partly linked with local land use practices. More efforts should be undertaken to identify the causes of decline and to increase conservation efforts for these populations.

Predictive scores in primary biliary cirrhosis: a retrospective single center analysis of 204 patients.

GOALS: The aim of this study was to assess the long-term outcome of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) patients and to test the clinical value of various outcome models, such as the Mayo Risk Score (MRS), in a large single-center cohort in Germany. BACKGROUND: PBC is a chronic autoimmune liver disease with a female gender predominance and a peak incidence in the fifth decade of life. PBC is characterized by portal inflammation and immune-mediated destruction of intrahepatic bile ducts in liver histology and the presence of antimitochondrial antibodies in the serum of nearly 95% of patients. In 5% to 20% of patients an overlap syndrome with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is diagnosed. Ursodeoxycholic acid is widely accepted as the standard medical treatment. STUDY: A total of 204 patients with PBC or PBC/AIH were retrospectively analyzed with regard to their clinical, biochemical, serological, and histologic features. PBC was diagnosed on the basis of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases criteria. Specific PBC scores, such as the MRS, the European and the Yale model, as well as nonspecific scores such as the Child-Pugh, the Model for End-stage Liver Disease, and Aspartate Aminotransferase to Platelet Ratio Index score were analyzed for their utility to predict the clinical outcome of patients. RESULTS: One hundred eighty-four patients with PBC alone and 20 with primary biliary cirrhosis/autoimmune hepatitis overlap were followed up for an average of 7.0 (range, 0.5 to 33.2) years. Importantly, baseline values of serum bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, immunoglobulin M (IgM) and IgG, as well as antimitochondrial antibodies titers did not allow in properly predicting patient's outcome. The MRS proved clinical applicability. Patients with an R-value <6 did not develop liver-related complications. The Aspartate Aminotransferase to Platelet Ratio Index score had a significant correlation with the histologic degree of liver fibrosis, with limited value of scores between 1.0 and 1.5. Patients with a Model for End-stage Liver Disease score ≥8 (n=17) had a significantly higher risk to undergo liver transplantation or liver-related death. Outcome was less favorable than predicted by the European model. All scores showed low positive predictive values, limiting their applicability in clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: Herein, we demonstrate that clinical risk scores in PBC should be interpreted with care. The MRS proved to be helpful to predict a favorable outcome. Novel approaches to predict outcome are needed to identify patients who may benefit from alternative, intensified treatment regimens.

Range and climate niche shifts in European and North American breeding birds.

Species respond dynamically to climate change and exhibit time lags. Consequently, species may not occupy their full climatic niche during range shifting. Here, we assessed climate niche tracking during recent range shifts of European and United States (US) birds. Using data from two European bird atlases and from the North American Breeding Bird Survey between the 1980s and 2010s, we analysed range overlap and climate niche overlap based on kernel density estimation. Phylogenetic multiple regression was used to assess the effect of species morphological, ecological and biogeographic traits on range and niche metrics. European birds shifted their ranges north and north-eastwards, US birds westwards. Range unfilling was lower than expected by null models, and niche expansion was more common than niche unfilling. Also, climate niche tracking was generally lower in US birds and poorly explained by species traits. Overall, our results suggest that dispersal limitations were minor in range shifting birds in Europe and the USA while delayed extinctions from unfavourable areas seem more important. Regional differences could be related to differences in land use history and monitoring schemes. Comparative analyses of range and niche shifts provide a useful screening approach for identifying the importance of transient dynamics and time-lagged responses to climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Warming underpins community turnover in temperate freshwater and terrestrial communities.

Rising temperatures are leading to increased prevalence of warm-affinity species in ecosystems, known as thermophilisation. However, factors influencing variation in thermophilisation rates among taxa and ecosystems, particularly freshwater communities with high diversity and high population decline, remain unclear. We analysed compositional change over time in 7123 freshwater and 6201 terrestrial, mostly temperate communities from multiple taxonomic groups. Overall, temperature change was positively linked to thermophilisation in both realms. Extirpated species had lower thermal affinities in terrestrial communities but higher affinities in freshwater communities compared to those persisting over time. Temperature change's impact on thermophilisation varied with community body size, thermal niche breadth, species richness and baseline temperature; these interactive effects were idiosyncratic in the direction and magnitude of their impacts on thermophilisation, both across realms and taxonomic groups. While our findings emphasise the challenges in predicting the consequences of temperature change across communities, conservation strategies should consider these variable responses when attempting to mitigate climate-induced biodiversity loss.

Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability.

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

Joint species distribution models with species correlations and imperfect detection.

Spatiotemporal patterns in biological communities are typically driven by environmental factors and species interactions. Spatial data from communities are naturally described by stacking models for all species in the community. Two important considerations in such multispecies or joint species distribution models (JSDMs) are measurement errors and correlations between species. Up to now, virtually all JSDMs have included either one or the other, but not both features simultaneously, even though both measurement errors and species correlations may be essential for achieving unbiased inferences about the distribution of communities and species co-occurrence patterns. We developed two presence-absence JSDMs for modeling pairwise species correlations while accommodating imperfect detection: one using a latent variable and the other using a multivariate probit approach. We conducted three simulation studies to assess the performance of our new models and to compare them to earlier latent variable JSDMs that did not consider imperfect detection. We illustrate our models with a large Atlas data set of 62 passerine bird species in Switzerland. Under a wide range of conditions, our new latent variable JSDM with imperfect detection and species correlations yielded estimates with little or no bias for occupancy, occupancy regression coefficients, and the species correlation matrix. In contrast, with the multivariate probit model we saw convergence issues with large data sets (many species and sites) resulting in very long run times and larger errors. A latent variable model that ignores imperfect detection produced correlation estimates that were consistently negatively biased, that is, underestimated. We found that the number of latent variables required to represent the species correlation matrix adequately may be much greater than previously suggested, namely around n/2, where n is community size. The analysis of the Swiss passerine data set exemplifies how not accounting for imperfect detection will lead to negative bias in occupancy estimates and to attenuation in the estimated covariate coefficients in a JSDM. Furthermore, spatial heterogeneity in detection may cause spurious patterns in the estimated species correlation matrix if not accounted for. Our new JSDMs represent an important extension of current approaches to community modeling to the common case where species presence-absence cannot be detected with certainty.

Unmanned aircraft systems as a new source of disturbance for wildlife: A systematic review.

The use of small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS; also known as "drones") for professional and personal-leisure use is increasing enormously. UAS operate at low altitudes (<500 m) and in any terrain, thus they are susceptible to interact with local fauna, generating a new type of anthropogenic disturbance that has not been systematically evaluated. To address this gap, we performed a review of the existent literature about animals' responses to UAS flights and conducted a pooled analysis of the data to determine the probability and intensity of the disturbance, and to identify the factors influencing animals' reactions towards the small aircraft. We found that wildlife reactions depended on both the UAS attributes (flight pattern, engine type and size of aircraft) and the characteristics of animals themselves (type of animal, life-history stage and level of aggregation). Target-oriented flight patterns, larger UAS sizes, and fuel-powered (noisier) engines evoked the strongest reactions in wildlife. Animals during the non-breeding period and in large groups were more likely to show behavioral reactions to UAS, and birds are more prone to react than other taxa. We discuss the implications of these results in the context of wildlife disturbance and suggest guidelines for conservationists, users and manufacturers to minimize the impact of UAS. In addition, we propose that the legal framework needs to be adapted so that appropriate actions can be undertaken when wildlife is negatively affected by these emergent practices.

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

Spatial arrangement overrules environmental factors to structure native and non-native assemblages of synanthropic harvestmen.

Understanding how space affects the occurrence of native and non-native species is essential for inferring processes that shape communities. However, studies considering spatial and environmental variables for the entire community - as well as for the native and non-native assemblages in a single study - are scarce for animals. Harvestmen communities in central Europe have undergone drastic turnovers during the past decades, with several newly immigrated species, and thus provide a unique system to study such questions. We studied the wall-dwelling harvestmen communities from 52 human settlements in Luxembourg and found the assemblages to be largely dominated by non-native species (64% of specimens). Community structure was analysed using Moran's eigenvector maps as spatial variables, and landcover variables at different radii (500 m, 1000 m, 2000 m) in combination with climatic parameters as environmental variables. A surprisingly high portion of pure spatial variation (15.7% of total variance) exceeded the environmental (10.6%) and shared (4%) components of variation, but we found only minor differences between native and non-native assemblages. This could result from the ecological flexibility of both, native and non-native harvestmen that are not restricted to urban habitats but also inhabit surrounding semi-natural landscapes. Nevertheless, urban landcover variables explained more variation in the non-native community, whereas coverage of semi-natural habitats (forests, rivers) at broader radii better explained the native assemblage. This indicates that some urban characteristics apparently facilitate the establishment of non-native species. We found no evidence for competitive replacement of native by invasive species, but a community with novel combination of native and non-native species.

Occurrence and assemblage composition of millipedes (Myriapoda, Diplopoda) and terrestrial isopods (Crustacea, Isopoda, Oniscidea) in urban areas of Switzerland.

Terrestrial isopods and millipedes, members of the invertebrate macro-decomposer guild, were collected through pitfall traps in three Swiss cities (Zurich, Lucerne, Lugano). A total of 7,198 individuals of 17 isopod species (7093 ind.), and 10 millipede species (105 ind.) were captured. Besides the Alpine endemic isopod (Trichoniscus alemannicus) and millipede (Cylindroiulus verhoeffi), urban assemblages were mainly composed of widespread, native European and even cosmopolitan species, which are frequent in anthropogenic areas. Overall species richness (isopods and millipedes combined) was similar in Zurich (17 species) and Lucerne (16), while only 13 species were sampled in Lugano. According to the Sørensen index of similarity, species composition of Zurich and Lucerne were more alike, while the one of Lugano was more distinct from the other two cities. This result can be explained by the spatial proximity of Zurich and Lucerne in the north of the Alps compared to Lugano, which is located more distantly and in the south of the Alps. Dominant isopods and millipedes in Zurich and Lucerne were found to be widespread synanthropic species in temperate Europe(Porcellio scaber, Trachelipus rathkii and Ophyiulus pilosus) while the dominant isopod in Lugano (Trachelipus razzautii) is a species with a north-eastern Mediterranean distribution. Our study reveals that the urban millipede and isopod fauna in Swiss cities mainly consists of widespread species, but species of narrower distribution (e.g. Trichoniscus alemannicus, Cylindroiulus verhoeffi) may also find suitable habitats in cities. Despite some signs of biotic homogenization, our study also found compositional differences of millipede and isopod assemblages between northern and southern cities that suggest geographical effects of the regional species pool.