A Predictive Model for a Reputation-Based General Surgery Residency Match and a Novel Online Calculator.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to identify medical student characteristics that predict a successful categorical match into a general surgery residency and a match based upon Doximity program rankings. DESIGN: This was a retrospective study that analyzed academic and personal predictors of a successful general surgery residency match. SETTING: This study was set at the University of Alabama at Birmingham School of Medicine, a public medical school. PARTICIPANTS: This study included 173 fourth-year medical students at a public medical school who matched into general surgery residency programs. METHODS: Our cohort comprised students graduating from our institution between 2004 and 2015 that matched into preliminary or categorical general surgery positions. We collected academic variables and performed univariate analyses and logistic regression to examine the likelihood of specific match outcomes. RESULTS: Of 173 students, 132 (76%) matched into a categorical position and 41 (24%) matched into a preliminary position. Of all variables, clinical ranking quartile was most effective in predicting a categorical match (R2 = 0.35). Models for a match based upon Doximity ranking lacked the same predictive power. CONCLUSIONS: This research identifies students that are at risk for not matching into a categorical position and predicts competitiveness for certain programs. It provides a novel calculator to give applicants easily interpretable match probabilities.

Does the Degree of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Tumor Necrosis following Transarterial Chemoembolization Impact Patient Survival?

Purpose. The association between transarterial chemoembolization- (TACE-) induced HCC tumor necrosis measured by the modified Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumors (mRECIST) and patient survival is poorly defined. We hypothesize that survival will be superior in HCC patients with increased TACE-induced tumor necrosis. Materials and Methods. TACE interventions were retrospectively reviewed. Tumor response was quantified via dichotomized (responders and nonresponders) and the four defined mRECIST categories. Results. Median survival following TACE was significantly greater in responders compared to nonresponders (20.8 months versus 14.9 months, p = 0.011). Survival outcomes also significantly varied among the four mRECIST categories (p = 0.0003): complete, 21.4 months; partial, 20.8; stable, 16.8; and progressive, 7.73. Only progressive disease demonstrated significantly worse survival when compared to complete response. Multivariable analysis showed that progressive disease, increasing total tumor diameter, and non-Child-Pugh class A were independent predictors of post-TACE mortality. Conclusions. Both dichotomized (responders and nonresponders) and the four defined mRECIST responses to TACE in patients with HCC were predictive of survival. The main driver of the survival analysis was poor survival in the progressive disease group. Surprisingly, there was small nonsignificant survival benefit between complete, partial, and stable disease groups. These findings may inform HCC treatment decisions following first TACE.