How many infants likely died in Africa as a result of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis?

The human consequences of the recent global financial crisis for the developing world are presumed to be severe, but few studies have quantified them. This letter estimates the human cost of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis in one critical dimension-infant mortality-for countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis pools birth-level data, as reported in female adult retrospective birth histories from all Demographic and Health Surveys collected in sub-Saharan Africa. This results in a data set of 639,000 births to 264,000 women in 30 countries. We use regression models with flexible controls for temporal trends to assess an infant's likelihood of death as a function of fluctuations in national income. We then calculate the expected number of excess deaths by combining these estimates with growth shortfalls as a result of the crisis. The results suggest 28,000-50,000 excess infant deaths in sub-Saharan Africa in the crisis-affected year of 2009. Notably, most of these additional deaths were concentrated among girls. Policies that protect the income of poor households and that maintain critical health services during times of economic contraction may reduce the expected increase in mortality. Interventions targeted at female infants and young girls can be particularly beneficial.

Understanding how socioeconomic inequalities drive inequalities in COVID-19 infections.

Across the world, the COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately affected economically disadvantaged groups. This differential impact has numerous possible explanations, each with significantly different policy implications. We examine, for the first time in a low- or middle-income country, which mechanisms best explain the disproportionate impact of the virus on the poor. Combining an epidemiological model with rich data from Bogotá, Colombia, we show that total infections and inequalities in infections are largely driven by inequalities in the ability to work remotely and in within-home secondary attack rates. Inequalities in isolation behavior are less important but non-negligible, while access to testing and contract-tracing plays practically no role because it is too slow to contain the virus. Interventions that mitigate transmission are often more effective when targeted on socioeconomically disadvantaged groups.

Parents' education, mothers' vocabulary, and cognitive development in early childhood: longitudinal evidence from Ecuador.

OBJECTIVES: I estimated the association between parents' education, mothers' vocabulary, and early child cognitive development in a sample of poor children in rural Ecuador. METHODS: I used regression analysis to estimate the association between parents' education, mothers' vocabulary, and the vocabulary, memory, and visual integration skills of children at early ages, controlling for possible confounders. The study is based on a longitudinal cohort of children in rural Ecuador (n = 2118). RESULTS: The schooling and vocabulary levels of mothers were strong predictors of the cognitive development of young children. Household wealth and child's height, weight, and hemoglobin levels explained only a modest fraction of the observed associations. The vocabulary levels of mothers and children were more strongly correlated among older children in the sample, suggesting that the effects of a richer maternal vocabulary are cumulative. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in children's cognitive outcomes start very early, which has important implications for the intergenerational transmission of poverty and inequality. Programs that seek to increase early stimulation for disadvantaged children, perhaps through parenting programs or high-quality center-based care, hold promise.

COVID-19 spread, detection, and dynamics in Bogota, Colombia.

Latin America has been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic but estimations of rates of infections are very limited and lack the level of detail required to guide policy decisions. We implemented a COVID-19 sentinel surveillance study with 59,770 RT-PCR tests on mostly asymptomatic individuals and combine this data with administrative records on all detected cases to capture the spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bogota from June 2020 to early March 2021. We describe various features of the pandemic that appear to be specific to a middle income countries. We find that, by March 2021, slightly more than half of the population in Bogota has been infected, despite only a small fraction of this population being detected. The initial buildup of immunity contributed to the containment of the pandemic in the first and second waves. We also show that the share of the population infected by March 2021 varies widely by occupation, socio-economic stratum, and location. This, in turn, has affected the dynamics of the spread with different groups being infected in the two waves.

Wealth gradients in early childhood cognitive development in five Latin American countries.

Research from the United States shows that gaps in early cognitive and non-cognitive ability appear early in the life cycle. Little is known about this important question for developing countries. This paper provides new evidence of sharp differences in cognitive development by socioeconomic status in early childhood for five Latin American countries. To help with comparability, we use the same measure of receptive language ability for all five countries. We find important differences in development in early childhood across countries, and steep socioeconomic gradients within every country. For the three countries where we can follow children over time, there are few substantive changes in scores once children enter school. Our results are robust to different ways of defining socioeconomic status, to different ways of standardizing outcomes, and to selective non-response on our measure of cognitive development.

Does money matter? The effects of cash transfers on child development in rural Ecuador.

A large body of research indicates that child development is sensitive to early-life environments, so that poor children are at higher risk for poor cognitive and behavioral outcomes. These developmental outcomes are important determinants of success in adulthood. Yet, remarkably little is known about whether poverty-alleviation programs improve children's developmental outcomes. We examine how a government-run cash transfer program for poor mothers in rural Ecuador influenced the development of young children. Random assignment at the parish level is used to identify program effects. Our data include a set of measures of cognitive ability that are not typically included in experimental or quasi-experimental studies of the impact of cash transfers on child well-being, as well as a set of physical health measures that may be related to developmental outcomes. The cash transfer program had positive, although modest, effects on the physical, cognitive, and socioemotional development of the poorest children in our sample.