Predictors of injury mortality in early childhood.

OBJECTIVE: To study the association between maternal/infant characteristics and mortality from injury for children 0 through 4 years of age. DESIGN: Historical cohort. SETTING: State of Tennessee. PARTICIPANTS: Children 0 through 4 years of age at any time between January 1, 1985 and December 31, 1994. We linked birth certificates and US census data to obtain information on maternal age, race, education, neighborhood income, parity, use of prenatal care, residence location, infant's gender, and gestational age. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome was death from injury, as determined from linked death certificates. The incidence density rates for each stratum (defined by maternal/child characteristics) were calculated by dividing the number of injury deaths by child years in the stratum. We used multivariate analysis to assess the independent contribution of each characteristic to risk of injury death. RESULTS: There were 1 035 504 children 0 through 4 years of age who contributed 3 414 436 child years. There were 803 deaths from injury, ie, 23.5 deaths per 100 000 child years. In the multivariate analysis, children had at least a 50% increased risk of injury mortality if they were born to a mother who had less than a high school education (relative risk [RR] = 2.88; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.92-4.34) compared with a college education, was <20 years of age (RR = 2.42; 95% CI: 1.76-3.31) compared with >30 years, or had >2 other children (RR = 2.97; 95% CI: 2.29-3.85) compared with no other children. Neither race nor income was significantly associated with childhood injury mortality in the multivariate analysis. Classification of children by maternal education, age, and parity defined a pronounced risk gradient in which high-risk children had an injury mortality rate >15 times that of low-risk children. The steep risk gradient was present for both infants (24-fold increase for high-risk children) and children 1 through 4 years of age (13-fold increase for high-risk children). If the injury mortality rate for all children were equal to that of the low-risk group, 614/803 (76.3%) of injury deaths would not have occurred. CONCLUSIONS: For young children, maternal education, age, and parity are strongly and independently associated with injury mortality. These factors define a steep gradient of risk, suggesting that many injury deaths could be prevented.

Clinical outcomes of children with acute abdominal pain.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence, associated symptoms, and clinical outcomes of children presenting for a nonscheduled visit with acute abdominal pain. DESIGN: Historical cohort. SETTING: Inner-city teaching hospital. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1141 consecutive children, ages 2 to 12, presenting for a nonscheduled visit (clinic or emergency department) with a complaint of nontraumatic abdominal pain of < or = 3 days' duration were identified through a manual chart review. MEASUREMENTS: Collected data included: 1) demographic characteristics, 2) presenting signs and symptoms, 3) records from the hospital record for all children who returned within 10 days for follow-up, 4) test results, and 5) telephone follow-up. A clinical reviewer used the data to assign a final diagnosis to each patient. RESULTS: The prevalence of children presenting with abdominal pain of < or = 3 days' duration was 5.1%. The most common associated symptoms were history of fever (64%), emesis (42.4%), decreased appetite (36.5%), cough (35.6%), headache (29.5%), and sore throat (27.0%). The six most prevalent final diagnoses, accounting for 84% of all final diagnoses, were upper respiratory infection and/or otitis (18.6%), pharyngitis (16.6%), viral syndrome (16.0%), abdominal pain of uncertain etiology (15.6%), gastroenteritis (10.9%), and acute febrile illness (7.8%). Approximately 1% of children required surgical intervention (10/12 for appendicitis). Approximately 7% of children returned within 10 days for reevaluation of their illness; on return, 11 had treatable medical diseases and 4 had diseases requiring surgical intervention. CONCLUSIONS: An acute complaint of abdominal pain in children occurs in 5.1% of nonscheduled visits, is frequently accompanied by multiple complaints, and is usually attributed to a self-limited disease. Close follow-up will identify the 1% to 2% who proceed to have a more serious disease process. This epidemiologic data will aid clinic-based physicians who manage children with acute abdominal pain.

Sociodemographic factors identify US infants at high risk of injury mortality.

OBJECTIVES: To identify sociodemographic predictors of infant injury mortality and to compare trends in injury mortality rates for high- and low-risk US infants from 1985 to 1991. DESIGN: Historical cohort. SETTING/STUDY PARTICIPANTS: The National Center for Health Statistics linked US infants (<1 year) born from 1985 to 1991 with death certificates. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Multivariate regression was used to identify sociodemographic factors associated with injury mortality. The adjusted relative risks (RRs) of maternal age, education, marital status, number of other children, and infant birth weight were used to categorize infants into risk groups. We compared trends in injury rates for the highest and lowest risk groups. RESULTS: There were 5963 injury deaths and 18.6 million infant years or 32.1 injury deaths per 100 000 infant years. Highest risk infants were born to mothers who were younger than 20 years compared with older than 30 years (RR, 3.25; 95% CI, 2.92-3.63), had less than a high school education compared with a college education (RR, 2.22; 95% CI, 1.95-2.53), had more than 2 other children compared with no other children (RR, 3.15; 95% CI, 2.88-3.45), were unmarried (RR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.57-1.78), or had birth weights 2500 g (RR, 3.36; 95% CI, 2.94-3.84). Infants in the highest risk group (21.0% of the population) had a >10-fold increased risk of injury mortality compared with the lowest risk group (18.1% of the population) and there was no evidence that this disparity was narrowing. CONCLUSIONS: Sociodemographic predictors of infant injury mortality include maternal age, education, number of other children, marital status, and infant birth weight. Based on these factors, 1 in 5 infants in the United States can be identified at birth as having a >10-fold increased risk of injury mortality compared with infants in lowest risk group. Programs to reduce injuries in these high-risk groups are urgently needed.

Effect of health care system factors on test ordering.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of the emergency department (ED) environment and other health care system factors on test ordering for children with acute abdominal pain. METHODS: We reviewed the encounter records of 1140 consecutive children seen in either the pediatric clinic or ED of an inner-city teaching hospital with a complaint of acute abdominal pain (< 72 hours). In the ED and the clinic, patients were seen by medical students, pediatric residents, and general pediatric faculty members. Measured data on test ordering included the number of tests ordered and the type of tests ordered; specifically examined were the throat culture, urinalysis or urine culture, and chest radiograph. Measured health care system factors included (1) encounter location; (2) resident involvement and level of training; (3) student involvement; and (4) faculty member's years of experience and sex. RESULTS: Of the 1140 children, 117 (10.2%) were seen in the ED, 531 (47.1%) were seen by a resident, 344 (30.2%) were seen by a medical student, and 195 (17.1%) were seen by a faculty member with more than 10 years of clinical pediatric experience. After controlling for initial signs and symptoms in multiple logistic regression, a child treated in the ED was no more likely to have had tests ordered than one who was treated in the clinic. Neither resident involvement nor resident training level affected test ordering. Except for decreasing the likelihood of having a urinalysis or urine culture ordered (odds ratio [OR] = 0.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.15-0.63), student involvement did not affect test ordering. Also, except for decreasing the likelihood of having a throat culture ordered (OR = 0.45; 95% CI, 0.25-0.83), being seen by a pediatrician with more than 10 years of experience did not affect test ordering. Children seen by female physicians were more likely (OR = 2.41; 95% CI, 1.57-3.70) to have at least 1 test ordered. CONCLUSIONS: For children seen for a complaint of acute abdominal pain, we found little evidence that test ordering is affected by encounter location, resident involvement, student involvement, or faculty member experience.

Persistently increased injury mortality rates in high-risk young children.

OBJECTIVE: To study trends in injury mortality for low- and high-risk young children. DESIGN AND METHODS: For Tennessee children 0 to 4 years of age, we used birth certificates to obtain data on maternal education, age, and parity; these risk factors were used to classify children into low- and high-risk groups. The outcome was death from injury, as determined from linked death certificates. Between 1978 and 1995, injury mortality rates were calculated for six 3-year periods for low- and high-risk children. RESULTS: There were 1.5 million children 0 to 4 years of age who contributed 4.9 million child-years. The high-risk group contributed 28% of all child-years. There were 673 injury deaths in the high-risk group, 48.9 deaths per 100,000 child-years, and 586 deaths in the low-risk group, 16.8 deaths per 100,000 child-years. The injury mortality rate for low-risk children decreased from 20.7 to 15.7 per 100,000 child-years between the 1978-1980 and 1981-1983 periods; thereafter it remained relatively stable. For high-risk children, the injury mortality rate decreased from 50.9 to 43.5 per 100,000 between the 1978-1980 and 1981-1983 periods, remained mostly unchanged through 1992, and then increased sharply in the 1993-1995 period to 64.1 per 100,000 child-years. The disparity between high- and low-risk children widened from 29.3 (95% confidence interval, 25.1-33.5) excess deaths per 100,000 for 1978 through 1991 to 46.9 (95% confidence interval, 35.9-57.9) in 1993 through 1995. CONCLUSIONS: In Tennessee, maternal education, age, and parity consistently identified a population of children at increased risk of injury mortality. For these high-risk children, there has been no substantial reduction in injury mortality in high-risk young children during the last 18 years.

Use of the rectal examination on children with acute abdominal pain.

The purpose of this study was to determine the frequency with which general pediatricians perform a rectal examination on children with a complaint of acute abdominal pain and to determine factors associated with performing a rectal examination. Children were eligible for the study if they were 2 to 12 years of age and presented to the clinic or emergency department of a municipal teaching hospital with a complaint of abdominal pain of less than or equal to three days' duration. Measured variables included demographic characteristics and presenting signs and symptoms. For each patient, a clinical reviewer (1) assigned a final diagnosis, (2) determined whether a rectal examination had been performed, and (3) assessed the clinical contribution of the rectal examination findings. For 1,140 children presenting for a nonscheduled visit with acute abdominal pain, a rectal examination was performed on 4.9% (56/1,140). Using multiple logistic regression, children were more likely to have a rectal examination performed if they had abdominal tenderness (odds ratio [OR] = 3.3 and 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8 to 6.0), a history of constipation (OR = 6.0 and 95% CI, 2.3 to 15.3), or a history of rectal bleeding (OR = 9.1 and 95% CI, 2.9 to 29). Children were less likely to have had a rectal examination performed if they presented with associated symptoms of cough (OR = 0.32 and 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.74), headache (OR = 0.15 and 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.46), or sore throat (OR = 0.28 and 95% CI, 0.08 to 0.91). The final diagnoses of 12 children who had clinically contributory findings on rectal examination included: constipation (5), gastroenteritis (3), appendicitis (2), abdominal adhesions (1), and abdominal pain of unclear etiology (1). General pediatricians infrequently perform a rectal examination on children who present with a complaint of acute abdominal pain. Clinical factors affect the likelihood of whether a rectal examination is performed.

Predictors of mortality from fires in young children.

BACKGROUND: In the United States in 1994, fires claimed 3.75 lives per 100 000 child years and accounted for 17.3% of all injury deaths in children <5 years of age. OBJECTIVES: To conduct a historical cohort study that uses maternal demographic characteristics to identify young children at high risk of fire-related deaths, thus defining appropriate targets for prevention programs. METHODS: The cohort consisted of children born to mothers who resided in the state of Tennessee between 1980 and 1995. Information was obtained by linking birth certificates, 1990 census data, and death certificates. Children were eligible for the study if they were <5 years of age at any time within the study period and if key study variables were present (99.2% of births). Birth certificates provided information on maternal characteristics including age, race, education, previous live births, use of prenatal care, and residence (in standard metropolitan statistical area). Child characteristics included gender, gestational age, and birth type (singleton/multiple gestation). Neighborhood income was estimated by linking the mother's address at the time of birth to the 1990 census (block group mean per capita income). The study outcome was a fire resulting in at least one fatality (fatal fire event) during the study period, identified from death certificates (coded E880 through E889 in the International Classification of Diseases, 9th rev). We calculated the fatal fire event rate corresponding to each stratum of maternal/child characteristics. We assessed the independent association between each characteristic and the risk of a fatal fire event from a Poisson regression multivariate analysis. RESULTS: During the study period, 1 428 694 children contributed 5 415 213 child years to the cohort: there were 270 deaths from fire (4.99 deaths per 100 000 child years) and 231 fatal fire events. In the multivariate analysis, factors associated with greater than a threefold increase in fatal fire events included maternal education, age, and number of other children. Compared with children whose mothers had a college education, children whose mothers had less than a high school education had 19.4 times (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6-142.4) an increased risk of a fatal fire event. Children whose mothers had more than two other children had 6.1 times (95% CI, 3.8-9.8) an increased risk of a fatal fire event compared with children whose mothers had no other children. Children of mothers <20 years of age had 3.9 times (95% CI, 2.2-7.1) increased risk of a fatal fire event compared with children whose mothers were >/=30 years old. Although both maternal neighborhood income and race were associated strongly with increased rates of fatal fire events in the univariate analysis, this association did not persist in the multivariate analysis. Other factors that were associated with increased risk of fatal fire events in the multivariate analysis were male gender and having a mother who was unmarried or who had delayed prenatal care. The three factors associated most strongly with fire mortality were combined to create a risk score based on maternal education (>/=16 years, 0 points; 13 to 15 years, 1 point; 12 years, 2 points; <12 years, 3 points); age (>/=30 years, 0 points; 25 to 29 years, 1 point; 20 to 24 years, 2 points; <20 years, 3 points); and number of other children (none, 0 points; one, 1 point; two, 2 points; three or more, 3 points). The lowest-risk group (score <3) included 19% of the population and had 0.19 fatal fire events per 100 000 child years. In contrast, highest-risk children (score >7) comprised 1.5% of the population and had 28.6 fatal fire events per 100 000 child years, 150 times higher than low-risk children. Children with risk scores >5 contributed 26% of child years but experienced 68% of all fatal fire events. If the fatal fire event rate for all children had been equal to that of the low-risk group (risk score <3), then 95% of deaths from