Post-pandemic transformations: How and why COVID-19 requires us to rethink development.

COVID-19 is proving to be the long awaited 'big one': a pandemic capable of bringing societies and economies to their knees. There is an urgent need to examine how COVID-19 - as a health and development crisis - unfolded the way it did it and to consider possibilities for post-pandemic transformations and for rethinking development more broadly. Drawing on over a decade of research on epidemics, we argue that the origins, unfolding and effects of the COVID-19 pandemic require analysis that addresses both structural political-economic conditions alongside far less ordered, 'unruly' processes reflecting complexity, uncertainty, contingency and context-specificity. This structural-unruly duality in the conditions and processes of pandemic emergence, progression and impact provides a lens to view three key challenge areas. The first is how scientific advice and evidence are used in policy, when conditions are rigidly 'locked in' to established power relations and yet so uncertain. Second is how economies function, with the COVID-19 crisis having revealed the limits of a conventional model of economic growth. The third concerns how new forms of politics can become the basis of reshaped citizen-state relations in confronting a pandemic, such as those around mutual solidarity and care. COVID-19 demonstrates that we face an uncertain future, where anticipation of and resilience to major shocks must become the core problematic of development studies and practice. Where mainstream approaches to development have been top down, rigid and orientated towards narrowly-defined economic goals, post-COVID-19 development must have a radically transformative, egalitarian and inclusive knowledge and politics at its core.

Understanding the roles of economy and society in the relative risks of zoonosis emergence from livestock.

The emergence of zoonotic infections that can develop into pathogens of pandemic potential is a major concern for public health. The risks of emergence and transmission relate to multiple factors that range from land use to human-non-human animal contacts. Livestock agriculture plays a potentially significant role in those risks, shaping landscapes and providing hosts that can act as the source or amplifiers of emergent pathogens. The relative risks will be contingent upon the nature of those systems, with comparisons often made between intensive, indoor, biosecure systems and more extensive, outdoor, insecure systems. Microbiological, ecological and veterinary sciences provide useful entry points in specifying and modelling some of the relative risks. Yet, they often do so with little regard for social science inputs and by making assumptions about social and economic conditions. In this article, we respond to recent analyses of relative risks by raising the importance of social and economic drivers of risk. We chart social science insights and research that materially alter the zoonotic risks associated with livestock production. Our purpose is to emphasize the requirement for full appreciation of the social, economic and political components of zoonotic and pandemic risk.

Livestock, methane, and climate change: The politics of global assessments.

The relationship between livestock production and climate change is the subject of hot debate, with arguments for major shifts in diets and a reduction in livestock production. This Perspective examines how global assessments of livestock-derived methane emissions are framed, identifying assumptions and data gaps that influence standard life-cycle analysis approaches. These include inadequate data due to a focus on industrial not extensive systems; errors arising due to inappropriate emission factors being applied; questions of how global warming potentials are derived for different greenhouse gases and debates about what baselines are appropriate. The article argues for a holistic systems approach that takes account of diverse livestock systems-both intensive and extensive-including both positive and negative impacts. In particular, the potential benefits of extensive livestock systems are highlighted, including supporting livelihoods, providing high-quality nutrition, enhancing biodiversity, protecting landscapes, and sequestering carbon. By failing to differentiate between livestock systems, global assessments may mislead. Inappropriate measurement, verification and reporting processes linked to global climate change policy may in turn result in interventions that can undermine the livelihoods of extensive livestock-keepers in marginal areas, including mobile pastoralists. In the politics of global assessments, certain interests promote framings of the livestock-climate challenge in favour of contained, intensive systems, and the conversion of extensive rangelands into conservation investments. Emerging from a narrow, aggregated scientific framing, global assessments therefore can have political consequences. A more disaggregated, nuanced approach is required if the future of food and climate change is to be effectively addressed. This article is categorized under:Integrated Assessment of Climate Change > Assessing Climate Change in the Context of Other IssuesClimate and Development > Social Justice and the Politics of Development.

Providing social assistance and humanitarian relief: The case for embracing uncertainty.

Motivation: Social assistance, humanitarian relief, and disaster response increasingly overlap, especially where recurrent crises and persistent conflicts prevail. In such situations, distinctions between risk and uncertainty become especially important. It is critical for policy and practice to shift from focusing on risk assessment and management to embracing uncertainty. Purpose: The article assesses the appropriateness of two approaches to social assistance and humanitarian relief where crises recur and conflicts persist: risk assessment and management; and embracing uncertainty and ignorance. Methods and approach: The article reviews different approaches to social assistance, humanitarian relief, and disaster response, and asks how they are framed. It draws on experiences from programmes offering social assistance, humanitarian relief, and disaster response, highlighting the professional, bureaucratic, and institutional features that influence programme design and functioning. These are compared with "high-reliability" approaches deployed in other critical infrastructure-such as water and energy supply. Findings: Mainstream approaches focus on risk assessment and management, assuming predictability and stability. This is problematic, especially in settings of crisis and conflict where there may be no functioning delivery system for social assistance and relief. The article highlights alternatives to the mainstream risk-focused approaches, which emphasize learning, collaboration, adaptation, and flexibility. Such approaches must build on embedded practices of moral economy, collective action, and mutual care and be supported through professional and institutional capacities that generate reliability. Policy implications: The article suggests a new agenda for the intersection of social assistance, humanitarian relief, and disaster response, which makes uncertainty the focus for rethinking responses at scale, especially in settings affected by crisis and conflict.

Embracing uncertainty: rethinking migration policy through pastoralists' experiences.

Today there is a disjuncture between migration flows that are complex, mixed and constantly evolving and the emerging global migration governance paradigm that seeks to impose clarity, certainty, regularity and order. Addressing the gap between policies and realities, this article explores lessons for migration policy and governance from mobile pastoralists' experience. Using examples from human migration flows within and between Europe and Africa and insights from pastoral systems from India, Italy and Kenya, the article identifies important similarities between international migration and pastoral mobility. We focus on four interconnections: both international migration and pastoral mobility show multi-directional and fragmented patterns; both involve multiple, intersecting socio-economic, political, cultural and environmental drivers; both must respond to non-linear systems, where critical junctures and tipping points undermine clear prediction and forecasts, making social navigation and reliability management more useful concepts than risk-based prediction and control and finally for both uncertainty is not conceived of as a state of crisis but an inherent feature, pregnant with possibility and hope. Building on these four points, and drawing from pastoralists' experiences, we propose some methodological, practical and policy reflections for bridging the disjuncture between migration realities on the ground and global migration governance policies and discourses.

Rethinking Disease Preparedness: Incertitude and the Politics of Knowledge.

This paper argues for a rethinking of disease preparedness that puts incertitude and the politics of knowledge at the centre. Through examining the experiences of Ebola, Nipah, cholera and COVID-19 across multiple settings, the limitations of current approaches are highlighted. Conventional approaches assume a controllable, predictable future, which is responded to by a range of standard interventions. Such emergency preparedness planning approaches assume risk - where future outcomes can be predicted - and fail to address uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance - where outcomes or their probabilities are unknown. Through examining the experiences of outbreak planning and response across the four cases, the paper argues for an approach that highlights the politics of knowledge, the constructions of time and space, the requirements for institutions and administrations and the challenges of ethics and justice. Embracing incertitude in disease preparedness responses therefore means making contextual social, political and cultural dimensions central.

What is 'community resilience'? Responding to COVID-19 in rural Zimbabwe.

Based on real-time recording and reflection of responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, this article identifies the features of 'community resilience' across sites in rural Zimbabwe. The findings confirm the importance of local knowledge, social networks and communication, as highlighted in the literature. In addition, a number of other aspects are emphasised, including the importance of adaptable livelihoods, innovation and collective learning. Flexible adaptation was especially important for responding to lockdowns, as livelihoods had to be reconfigured in response to public health measures. Meanwhile, innovation and shared learning was vital for generating local treatment responses to the disease. In the Zimbabwe context, these adaptation and innovation capabilities emerge from a particular historical experience where resilience in the face of harsh economic conditions and in the absence of state support has been generated over years. This is often a more resigned coping than a positive, empowering, transformational form of resilience. While adaptation, innovation and shared learning capabilities proved useful during the pandemic, they are not evenly spread, and there is no singular 'community' around which resilience emerges. The article therefore argues against seeing 'community resilience' as the magic bullet for disaster preparedness and response in the context of pandemics. Instead, the highly differentiated local practices of adaptation, innovation and shared learning-across gender, age and wealth differences-should be seen as an important complement to public, state-led support in health emergencies and so are part of a wider, plural health system.

Small Towns and Land Reform in Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe's land reform from 2000 radically transformed the agrarian structure, and with this small towns in rural areas. This article explores three such towns-Mvurwi, Chatsworth and Maphisa-examining changes in population, housing, transport and business activity between 2000 and 2020. Case studies highlight the importance of networks and social relationships between rural and urban areas, linked to new patterns of migration and a massive growth in the informal economy. Despite the lack of state investment in basic infrastructure, the economies of these small towns have grown significantly, with a major shift in agrarian relations generating new economic activity and employment. This suggests the potential of a territorial focus for local economic development following land reform, encompassing both urban and rural areas.

La reforme rurale du Zimbabwe a, à partir de l'année 2000, radicalement transformé la structure agraire, et avec celle-ci les petites villages dans les zones rurales. Cet article explore trois parmi ces villages - Mvurwi, Chatsworth and Maphisa ­ en examinant les changements de population, de logement, de transport et d'activité commerciale entre 2000 et 2020. Etudes de cas soulignent l'importance des réseaux et relations sociales entre les zones rurales et urbaines, associés aux nouveaux modèles de migration et à la croissance massive de l'économie parallèle. En dépit de la manque d'investissement publique dans les infrastructures de base, les économies des petites villes étudiés a augmenté de manière considérable, avec un changement important dans les relations agraires, ce qui a généré des nouvelles activités économiques et des nouveaux emplois. Ceci suggère que, suite a des reformes rurales, viser un axe territorial (qui comprend des zones urbaines et rurales) offre du potentiel au développement économique locale.

One Health for a changing world: new perspectives from Africa.

The concept of One Health, which aims to drive improvements in human, animal and ecological health through an holistic approach, has been gaining increasing support and attention in recent years. While this concept has much appeal, there are few examples where it has been successfully put into practice. This Special Issue explores the challenges in African contexts, with papers looking at the complex interactions between ecosystems, diseases and poverty dynamics; at underlying social and political dimensions; at the potentials for integrative modelling; and at the changes in policy and practice required to realise a One Health approach. This introductory paper offers an overview of the 11 papers, coming from diverse disciplinary perspectives, that each explore how a One Health approach can work in a world of social, economic and environmental change.

Structural drivers of vulnerability to zoonotic disease in Africa.

This paper argues that addressing the underlying structural drivers of disease vulnerability is essential for a 'One Health' approach to tackling zoonotic diseases in Africa. Through three case studies-trypanosomiasis in Zimbabwe, Ebola and Lassa fever in Sierra Leone and Rift Valley fever in Kenya-we show how political interests, commercial investments and conflict and securitization all generate patterns of vulnerability, reshaping the political ecology of disease landscapes, influencing traditional coping mechanisms and affecting health service provision and outbreak responses. A historical, political economy approach reveals patterns of 'structural violence' that reinforce inequalities and marginalization of certain groups, increasing disease risks. Addressing the politics of One Health requires analysing trade-offs and conflicts between interests and visions of the future. For all zoonotic diseases economic and political dimensions are ultimately critical and One Health approaches must engage with these factors, and not just end with an 'anti-political' focus on institutional and disciplinary collaboration.This article is part of the themed issue 'One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being'.

People, Patches, and Parasites: The Case of Trypanosomiasis in Zimbabwe.

Understanding the socio-ecology of disease requires careful attention to the role of patches within disease landscapes. Such patches, and the interfaces between different socio-epidemiological systems, we argue, have important implications for disease control. We conducted an interdisciplinary study over three years to investigate the spatial dynamics of human and animal trypanosomiasis in the Zambezi valley, Zimbabwe. We used a habitat niche model to identify changes in suitable habitat for tsetse fly vectors over time, and this is related to local villagers' understandings of where flies are found. Fly trapping and blood DNA analysis of livestock highlighted the patchy distribution of both flies and trypanosome parasites. Through livelihoods analysis we explored who makes use of what areas of the landscape and when, identifying the social groups most at risk. We conclude with a discussion of the practical implications, including the need for an integrated 'One Health' approach involving targeted approaches to both vector control and surveillance.

The social and political lives of zoonotic disease models: narratives, science and policy.

Zoonotic diseases currently pose both major health threats and complex scientific and policy challenges, to which modelling is increasingly called to respond. In this article we argue that the challenges are best met by combining multiple models and modelling approaches that elucidate the various epidemiological, ecological and social processes at work. These models should not be understood as neutral science informing policy in a linear manner, but as having social and political lives: social, cultural and political norms and values that shape their development and which they carry and project. We develop and illustrate this argument in relation to the cases of H5N1 avian influenza and Ebola, exploring for each the range of modelling approaches deployed and the ways they have been co-constructed with a particular politics of policy. Addressing the complex, uncertain dynamics of zoonotic disease requires such social and political lives to be made explicit in approaches that aim at triangulation rather than integration, and plural and conditional rather than singular forms of policy advice.

Understanding and managing zoonotic risk in the new livestock industries.

BACKGROUND: In many parts of the world, livestock production is undergoing a process of rapid intensification. The health implications of this development are uncertain. Intensification creates cheaper products, allowing more people to access animal-based foods. However, some practices associated with intensification may contribute to zoonotic disease emergence and spread: for example, the sustained use of antibiotics, concentration of animals in confined units, and long distances and frequent movement of livestock. OBJECTIVES: Here we present the diverse range of ecological, biological, and socioeconomic factors likely to enhance or reduce zoonotic risk, and identify ways in which a comprehensive risk analysis may be conducted by using an interdisciplinary approach. We also offer a conceptual framework to guide systematic research on this problem. DISCUSSION: We recommend that interdisciplinary work on zoonotic risk should take into account the complexity of risk environments, rather than limiting studies to simple linear causal relations between risk drivers and disease emergence and/or spread. In addition, interdisciplinary integration is needed at different levels of analysis, from the study of risk environments to the identification of policy options for risk management. CONCLUSION: Given rapid changes in livestock production systems and their potential health implications at the local and global level, the problem we analyze here is of great importance for environmental health and development. Although we offer a systematic interdisciplinary approach to understand and address these implications, we recognize that further research is needed to clarify methodological and practical questions arising from the integration of the natural and social sciences.