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INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Stroke and bleeding risks in atrial fibrillation (AF) are often assessed at baseline to predict outcomes years later. We investigated whether dynamic changes in CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores over time modify risk prediction. METHODS: We included patients with AF who were stable while taking vitamin K antagonists. During a 6-year follow-up, all ischemic strokes/transient ischemic attacks (TIAs) and major bleeding events were recorded. CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED were recalculated every 2-years and tested for clinical outcomes at 2-year periods. RESULTS: We included 1361 patients (mean CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED 4.0±1.7 and 2.9±1.2). During the follow-up, 156 (11.5%) patients had an ischemic stroke/TIA and 269 (19.8%) had a major bleeding event. Compared with the baseline CHA2DS2-VASc, the CHA2DS2-VASc recalculated at 2 years had higher predictive ability for ischemic stroke/TIA during the period from 2 to 4 years. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) showed improvements in sensitivity and better reclassification. The CHA2DS2-VASc recalculated at 4 years had better predictive performance than the baseline CHA2DS2-VASc during the period from 4 to 6 years, with an improvement in IDI and an enhancement of the reclassification. The recalculated HAS-BLED at 2-years had higher predictive ability than the baseline score for major bleeding during the period from 2 to 4 years, with significant improvements in sensitivity and reclassification. A slight enhancement in sensitivity was observed with the HAS-BLED score recalculated at 4 years compared with the baseline score. CONCLUSIONS: In AF patients, stroke and bleeding risks are dynamic and change over time. The CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores should be regularly reassessed, particularly for accurate stroke risk prediction.
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Abstract | Introduction: Sexually transmitted infections are a public health problem worldwide. Their inadequate antimicrobial management has been associated with a higher risk of recurrence. Objective: To characterize the main sexually transmitted infections, the adherence to clinical practice guidelines, and the factors associated with recurrence in Colombia. Materials and methods: We conducted an observational study to identify the main sexually transmitted infections, the sociodemographic variables, and the pharmacological management in a patient cohort from a population database of 6.5 million people affiliated with the Colombian health system. We made a multivariate analysis to identify the variables associated with recurrence. Results: We detected 3,158 patients with a mean age of 41.8 ± 14.5 years, of whom 63.1% were men. We found 4.030 episodes of sexually transmitted infections, predominantly urethral syndrome (27.5%). Only 13.6% of patients with urethral syndrome, ulcerative syndrome, or genital warts were managed in compliance with clinical practice guidelines and 20.6% were dispensed condoms; 16.7% of patients had recurrences and being male (OR=1.32; 95%CI 1.08-1.63), <30 years old (OR=1.72; 95%CI 1.40-2.13), being treated in municipalities other than capital cities (OR=1.43; 95%CI 1.06-1.94), and having received inadequate treatment for the first episode (OR=1.93; 95%CI 1.52-2.39) were associated with recurrence. Conclusions: The majority of patients with sexually transmitted infections were not treated in compliance with clinical practice guidelines and those who did not have adequate management had a higher risk of recurrence.
Resumen | Introducción. Las infecciones de transmisión sexual constituyen actualmente un problema de salud pública en el mundo. Su inadecuado tratamiento antimicrobiano se ha relacionado con un mayor riesgo de recurrencias. Objetivo. Caracterizar las principales infecciones de transmisión sexual, el cumplimiento de las guías de práctica clínica de Colombia y los factores asociados con las recurrencias. Materiales y métodos. Se hizo un estudio observacional para determinar las principales infecciones de transmisión sexual, las variables sociodemográficas y el tratamiento farmacológico en una cohorte de pacientes registrados en una base de datos poblacional de 6,5 millones de personas afiliadas al Sistema de Salud de Colombia. Se hizo un análisis multivariado para establecer las variables asociadas con las recurrencias. Resultados. Se detectaron 3.158 pacientes; su edad media era de 41,8 ±14,5 años y 63,1 % de ellos correspondía a hombres; se encontraron 4.030 episodios de infecciones de transmisión sexual con predominio del síndrome uretral (27,5 %). El 13,6 % de los pacientes con síndrome uretral, ulceroso o con verrugas genitales se manejó según las guías de práctica clínica. El 20,6 % tenía acceso a condones y el 16,7 % presentó recurrencias. Ser hombre (OR=1,32; IC95% 1,08-1,63), tener <30 años (OR=1,72; IC95% 1,40-2,13), ser tratado en municipios distintos a ciudades capitales (OR=1,43; IC95% 1,06-1,94) y haber recibido un tratamiento inadecuado en el primer episodio (OR=1,93; IC95% 1,52-2,39) fueron factores asociados con las recurrencias. Conclusiones. La mayoría de los pacientes con infecciones de transmisión sexual no fueron tratados según las guías de práctica clínica y quienes no tuvieron un manejo adecuado presentaban mayor riesgo de recurrencias.