Information-Seeking Patterns During the COVID-19 Pandemic Across the United States: Longitudinal Analysis of Google Trends Data.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted people's lives at unprecedented speed and scale, including how they eat and work, what they are concerned about, how much they move, and how much they can earn. Traditional surveys in the area of public health can be expensive and time-consuming, and they can rapidly become outdated. The analysis of big data sets (such as electronic patient records and surveillance systems) is very complex. Google Trends is an alternative approach that has been used in the past to analyze health behaviors; however, most existing studies on COVID-19 using these data examine a single issue or a limited geographic area. This paper explores Google Trends as a proxy for what people are thinking, needing, and planning in real time across the United States. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to use Google Trends to provide both insights into and potential indicators of important changes in information-seeking patterns during pandemics such as COVID-19. We asked four questions: (1) How has information seeking changed over time? (2) How does information seeking vary between regions and states? (3) Do states have particular and distinct patterns in information seeking? (4) Do search data correlate with-or precede-real-life events? METHODS: We analyzed searches on 38 terms related to COVID-19, falling into six themes: social and travel; care seeking; government programs; health programs; news and influence; and outlook and concerns. We generated data sets at the national level (covering January 1, 2016, to April 15, 2020) and state level (covering January 1 to April 15, 2020). Methods used include trend analysis of US search data; geographic analyses of the differences in search popularity across US states from March 1 to April 15, 2020; and principal component analysis to extract search patterns across states. RESULTS: The data showed high demand for information, corresponding with increasing searches for coronavirus linked to news sources regardless of the ideological leaning of the news source. Changes in information seeking often occurred well in advance of action by the federal government. The popularity of searches for unemployment claims predicted the actual spike in weekly claims. The increase in searches for information on COVID-19 care was paralleled by a decrease in searches related to other health behaviors, such as urgent care, doctor's appointments, health insurance, Medicare, and Medicaid. Finally, concerns varied across the country; some search terms were more popular in some regions than in others. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 is unlikely to be the last pandemic faced by the United States. Our research holds important lessons for both state and federal governments in a fast-evolving situation that requires a finger on the pulse of public sentiment. We suggest strategic shifts for policy makers to improve the precision and effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions and recommend the development of a real-time dashboard as a decision-making tool.

Understanding the socio-economic and sexual behavioural correlates of male circumcision across eleven voluntary medical male circumcision priority countries in southeastern Africa.

BACKGROUND: Male circumcision (MC) has been demonstrated to be effective and cost-effective for HIV/AIDS prevention. Global guidance to adopt this intervention was announced in 2007 for countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence and low MC prevalence. However, scale up of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs in MC priority countries have been slow. Many of these countries have particular cultural barriers that impede uptake of this effective intervention. This analysis explored correlates of MC status among men and their socio-economic, health and sexual behaviour factors using DHS data (2006-2011) from 11 MC priority countries. METHODS: Our analysis included univariate unadjusted analyses for individual countries and the region (by combining all countries into one dataset) and a multiple logistic regression model. RESULTS: Individual country results vary widely but alignment was mostly found between unadjusted analyses and multiple logistic regression model. The model found that men who are of the Muslim faith, reside in urban areas, have higher or secondary education attainment, hold professional occupations, and be in the richest wealth quintile are more likely to be circumcised. Circumcision is also positively correlated with lower reports of STIs, safe sexual behaviour, and HIV/AIDS prevention knowledge. CONCLUSIONS: Since the data collected predate VMMC program launch in these countries, results can only indicate baseline associations. However, characteristics of these existing circumcision practices may be utilized for better population targeting and program management to achieve higher impact with this effective prevention strategy.

Achieving the HIV prevention impact of voluntary medical male circumcision: lessons and challenges for managing programs.

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) is capable of reducing the risk of sexual transmission of HIV from females to males by approximately 60%. In 2007, the WHO and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) recommended making VMMC part of a comprehensive HIV prevention package in countries with a generalized HIV epidemic and low rates of male circumcision. Modeling studies undertaken in 2009-2011 estimated that circumcising 80% of adult males in 14 priority countries in Eastern and Southern Africa within five years, and sustaining coverage levels thereafter, could avert 3.4 million HIV infections within 15 years and save US$16.5 billion in treatment costs. In response, WHO/UNAIDS launched the Joint Strategic Action Framework for accelerating the scale-up of VMMC for HIV prevention in Southern and Eastern Africa, calling for 80% coverage of adult male circumcision by 2016. While VMMC programs have grown dramatically since inception, they appear unlikely to reach this goal. This review provides an overview of findings from the PLOS Collection "Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention: Improving Quality, Efficiency, Cost Effectiveness, and Demand for Services during an Accelerated Scale-up." The use of devices for VMMC is also explored. We propose emphasizing management solutions to help VMMC programs in the priority countries achieve the desired impact of averting the greatest possible number of HIV infections. Our recommendations include advocating for prioritization and funding of VMMC, increasing strategic targeting to achieve the goal of reducing HIV incidence, focusing on programmatic efficiency, exploring the role of new technologies, rethinking demand creation, strengthening data use for decision-making, improving governments' program management capacity, strategizing for sustainability, and maintaining a flexible scale-up strategy informed by a strong monitoring, learning, and evaluation platform.

Geographical variation in perceptions, attitudes and barriers to mental health care-seeking across the UK: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the relative importance of the drivers of mental health care-seeking intention and how these, along with intention itself, are geographically distributed across integrated care systems (ICS) and health boards (HBs) in the UK. Also, to examine the degree of acceptance of virtual modes of care. DESIGN: Community-based cross-sectional survey. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: A national online survey of 17 309 adults between August and September 2021 recruited via a research technology company, Lucid. Sample size quotas were set to ensure coverage across the UK and match population distributions for gender, age and ethnicity. After exclusions, 16 835 participants remained (54% female, 89% white). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Care-seeking intention, using a continuous measure of likelihood and a categorical measure of estimated time to seek professional help for a future mental health difficulty. RESULTS: 20.5% (95% CI 19.8% to 21.2%) reported that they would significantly delay or never seek mental healthcare, ranging from 8.3% to 25.7% across ICS/HBs. Multilevel regression analysis showed mental health knowledge was the most predictive of care-seeking intention, followed by attitudes towards others with mental illness and a combination of stigma, negative attitudes to treatment and instrumental barriers to accessing care. The model explained 17% of the variance. There was substantial geographical variation in prevalence of preclinical symptoms of depression and anxiety, attitudes to mental health, and barriers to care, leading to complex ICS/HB profiles. Remote and self-guided therapies did not pose as a major barrier to care with more than half of respondents likely or very likely to use them. CONCLUSIONS: Our locally relevant and actionable findings suggest possible interventions that may improve care-seeking intention and indicate which of these interventions need to be geographically tailored to have maximal effect.

The Engrailed homeobox genes determine the different foliation patterns in the vermis and hemispheres of the mammalian cerebellum.

Little is known about the genetic pathways and cellular processes responsible for regional differences in cerebellum foliation, which interestingly are accompanied by regionally distinct afferent circuitry. We have identified the Engrailed (En) homeobox genes as being crucial to producing the distinct medial vermis and lateral hemisphere foliation patterns in mammalian cerebella. By producing a series of temporal conditional mutants in En1 and/or En2, we demonstrate that both En genes are required to ensure that folia exclusive to the vermis or hemispheres form in the appropriate mediolateral position. Furthermore, En1/En2 continue to regulate foliation after embryonic day 14, at which time Fgf8 isthmic organizer activity is complete and the major output cells of the cerebellar cortex have been specified. Changes in spatially restricted gene expression occur prior to foliation in mutants, and foliation is altered from the onset and is accompanied by changes in the thickness of the layer of proliferating granule cell precursors. In addition, the positioning and timing of fissure formation are altered. Thus, the En genes represent a new class of genes that are fundamental to patterning cerebellum foliation throughout the mediolateral axis and that act late in development.

Scale-up of a comprehensive harm reduction programme for people injecting opioids: lessons from north-eastern India.

PROBLEM: Harm reduction packages for people who inject illicit drugs, including those infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), are cost-effective but have not been scaled up globally. In the north-eastern Indian states of Manipur and Nagaland, the epidemic of HIV infection is driven by the injection of illicit drugs, especially opioids. These states needed to scale up harm reduction programmes but faced difficulty doing so. APPROACH: In 2004, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation funded Project ORCHID to scale up a harm reduction programme in Manipur and Nagaland. LOCAL SETTING: In 2003, an estimated 10 000 and 16 000 people were injecting drugs in Manipur and Nagaland, respectively. The prevalence of HIV infection among people injecting drugs was 24.5% in Manipur and 8.4% in Nagaland. RELEVANT CHANGES: By 2012, the harm reduction programme had been scaled up to an average of 9011 monthly contacts outside clinics (80% of target); an average of 1709 monthly clinic visits (15% of target, well above the 5% monthly goal) and an average monthly distribution of needles and syringes of 16 each per programme participant. Opioid agonist maintenance treatment coverage was 13.7% and retention 6 months after enrolment was 63%. Antiretroviral treatment coverage for HIV-positive participants was 81%. LESSONS LEARNT: A harm reduction model consisting of community-owned, locally relevant innovations and business approaches can result in good harm reduction programme scale-up and influence harm reduction policy. Project ORCHID has influenced national harm reduction policy in India and contributed to the development of harm reduction guidelines.

Discovery of interconnected causal drivers of COVID-19 vaccination intentions in the US using a causal Bayesian network.

Holistic interventions to overcome COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy require a system-level understanding of the interconnected causes and mechanisms that give rise to it. However, conventional correlative analyses do not easily provide such nuanced insights. We used an unsupervised, hypothesis-free causal discovery algorithm to learn the interconnected causal pathways to vaccine intention as a causal Bayesian network (BN), using data from a COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy survey in the US in early 2021. We identified social responsibility, vaccine safety and anticipated regret as prime candidates for interventions and revealed a complex network of variables that mediate their influences. Social responsibility's causal effect greatly exceeded that of other variables. The BN revealed that the causal impact of political affiliations was weak compared with more direct causal factors. This approach provides clearer targets for intervention than regression, suggesting it can be an effective way to explore multiple causal pathways of complex behavioural problems to inform interventions.

Black-White disparities in maternal vulnerability and adverse pregnancy outcomes: an ecological population study in the United States, 2014-2018.

Background: Systematic information on the association between community-level determinants and maternal health outcomes and disparities is needed. We aimed to investigate multi-dimensional place-based contributions to Black-White maternal health disparities in the United States. Methods: We constructed the Maternal Vulnerability Index, a geospatial measure of vulnerability to poor maternal health. The index was linked to 13m live births and maternal deaths to mothers aged 10-44 for 2014-2018 in the United States. We quantified racial disparities in exposure to higher risk environments, and used logistic regression to estimate associations between race, vulnerability, and maternal death (n = 3633), low birthweight (n = 1.1m), and preterm birth (n = 1.3m). Findings: Black mothers lived in disproportionately higher maternal vulnerability counties, when compared to White mothers (median of 55 vs 36/100 points). Giving birth in the highest-quartile MVI counties was associated with an increase in the odds of poor outcomes when compared to the lowest-quartile (aOR 1.43 [95% CI 1.20-1.71] for mortality, 1.39 [1.37-1.41] for low birthweight and 1.41 [1.39-1.43] for preterm birth, adjusted for age, educational attainment level and race/ethnicity). Racial disparities exist in low- and high-vulnerability counties: Black mothers in the least vulnerable counties remain at higher risk of maternal mortality, preterm birth, and low birthweight as White mothers in the most vulnerable. Interpretation: Exposure to community maternal vulnerability is associated with increased odds of adverse outcomes, but the Black-White gap in outcomes remained under all vulnerability levels. Our findings suggest that locally-informed precision health interventions and further research into racism are needed to achieve maternal health equity. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grant number INV-024583).

How do psychobehavioural variables shed light on heterogeneity in COVID-19 vaccine acceptance? Evidence from United States general population surveys on a probability panel and social media.

OBJECTIVES: To (1) understand what behaviours, beliefs, demographics and structural factors predict US adults' intention to get a COVID-19 vaccination, (2) identify segments of the population ('personas') who share similar factors predicting vaccination intention, (3) create a 'typing tool' to predict which persona people belong to and (4) track changes in the distribution of personas over time and across the USA. DESIGN: Three surveys: two on a probability-based household panel (NORC's AmeriSpeak) and one on Facebook. SETTING: The first two surveys were conducted in January 2021 and March 2021 when the COVID-19 vaccine had just been made available in the USA. The Facebook survey ran from May 2021 to February 2022. PARTICIPANTS: All participants were aged 18+ and living in the USA. OUTCOME MEASURES: In our predictive model, the outcome variable was self-reported vaccination intention (0-10 scale). In our typing tool model, the outcome variable was the five personas identified by our clustering algorithm. RESULTS: Only 1% of variation in vaccination intention was explained by demographics, with about 70% explained by psychobehavioural factors. We identified five personas with distinct psychobehavioural profiles: COVID Sceptics (believe at least two COVID-19 conspiracy theories), System Distrusters (believe people of their race/ethnicity do not receive fair healthcare treatment), Cost Anxious (concerns about time and finances), Watchful (prefer to wait and see) and Enthusiasts (want to get vaccinated as soon as possible). The distribution of personas varies at the state level. Over time, we saw an increase in the proportion of personas who are less willing to get vaccinated. CONCLUSIONS: Psychobehavioural segmentation allows us to identify why people are unvaccinated, not just who is unvaccinated. It can help practitioners tailor the right intervention to the right person at the right time to optimally influence behaviour.

Knowing your HIV/AIDS epidemic and tailoring an effective response: how did India do it?

Tremendous global efforts have been made to collect data on the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Yet, significant challenges remain for generating and analysing evidence to allocate resources efficiently and implement an effective AIDS response. India offers important lessons and a model for intelligent and integrated use of data on HIV/AIDS for an evidence-based response. Over the past 15 years, the number of data sources has expanded and the geographical unit of data generation, analysis and use for planning has shifted from the national to the state, district and now subdistrict level. The authors describe and critically analyse the evolution of data sets in India and how they have been utilised to better understand the epidemic, advance policy, and plan and implement an increasingly effective, well-targeted and decentralised national response to HIV and AIDS. The authors argue that India is an example of how 'know your epidemic, know your response' message can effectively be implemented at scale and presents important lessons to help other countries design their evidence generation systems.

Improving Community Health Worker Compensation: A Case Study From India Using Quantitative Projection Modeling and Incentive Design Principles.

INTRODUCTION: Although community health workers (CHWs) are effective at mobilizing important health behaviors, there is limited evidence on how financial incentive systems can best be designed to drive their effectiveness. This study intends to bridge this evidence gap by analyzing the compensation model of India's accredited social health activist (ASHA) program and identifying areas of improvement in the system's design and implementation. METHODS: We analyze the ASHA program in Uttar Pradesh, India. ASHAs receive compensation through a mix of program-linked, performance-based, and routine activity-based incentive structures. Using multiple data sources, including a novel linked household and ASHA survey, we estimate ASHA performance-linked incentive earnings under different scenarios of ASHA actions and household behaviors. Juxtaposing statistical projection models and actual government payments, we identified which incentives promised the highest payments, which were claimed or not, which could be claimed more by increasing ASHA actions, and which were paid despite not meeting payment criteria. We also report findings on ASHA awareness of and experiences with claiming incentives. RESULTS: We find crucial gaps and implementation challenges in the ASHA incentive structure. ASHAs could double their earnings by completing certain tasks within their control. ASHAs may also be paid for partial completion of activities, as incentives are paid in lump sums for a series of activities rather than for each activity. Family planning incentives have the largest gap between potential and actual earnings. Incentivizing ASHAs for achieving certain health outcomes is inefficient, as no clear linkage was found between the achievability of such health outcomes and the claim amounts. CONCLUSION: There are several opportunities for improving CHW compensation, from improving the incentive claims process to shifting focus to achievable outcomes. Optimizing incentive system designs can further enhance CHW effectiveness globally to affect key health behaviors.

HIV, HSV-2 and syphilis among married couples in India: patterns of discordance and concordance.

OBJECTIVES: Differences in sexual networks probably explain the disparity in the scale of HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa and India. HIV and sexually transmitted infection (STI) discordant couple studies provide insights into important aspects of these sexual networks. The authors quantify the role of male sexual behaviour in HIV transmission in married couples in India. METHODS: The authors analysed patterns of HIV and STI discordance in married couples from two community surveys in India: the National Family Health Study-3 for HIV-1 and the Centre for Global Health Research health check-up for HSV-2 and syphilis. A statistical model was used to estimate the fraction of infections introduced by each of the two partners. RESULTS: Only 0.8%, 16.0% and 3.5% of couples were infected (either partner or both) with HIV-1, HSV-2 and syphilis, respectively. A large proportion of infected couples were discordant (73.0%, 56.3% and 84.2% for HIV-1, HSV-2 and syphilis, respectively). This model estimated that, among couples with any STI, the male partner introduced the infection the majority of the time (HIV-1: 85.4%, HSV-2: 64.1%, syphilis: 75.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Male sexual activity outside of marriage appears to be a driving force for the Indian HIV/STI epidemic. Male client and female sex worker contacts should remain a primary target of the National AIDS Control Program in India.

Causal Datasheet for Datasets: An Evaluation Guide for Real-World Data Analysis and Data Collection Design Using Bayesian Networks.

Developing data-driven solutions that address real-world problems requires understanding of these problems' causes and how their interaction affects the outcome-often with only observational data. Causal Bayesian Networks (BN) have been proposed as a powerful method for discovering and representing the causal relationships from observational data as a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG). BNs could be especially useful for research in global health in Lower and Middle Income Countries, where there is an increasing abundance of observational data that could be harnessed for policy making, program evaluation, and intervention design. However, BNs have not been widely adopted by global health professionals, and in real-world applications, confidence in the results of BNs generally remains inadequate. This is partially due to the inability to validate against some ground truth, as the true DAG is not available. This is especially problematic if a learned DAG conflicts with pre-existing domain doctrine. Here we conceptualize and demonstrate an idea of a "Causal Datasheet" that could approximate and document BN performance expectations for a given dataset, aiming to provide confidence and sample size requirements to practitioners. To generate results for such a Causal Datasheet, a tool was developed which can generate synthetic Bayesian networks and their associated synthetic datasets to mimic real-world datasets. The results given by well-known structure learning algorithms and a novel implementation of the OrderMCMC method using the Quotient Normalized Maximum Likelihood score were recorded. These results were used to populate the Causal Datasheet, and recommendations could be made dependent on whether expected performance met user-defined thresholds. We present our experience in the creation of Causal Datasheets to aid analysis decisions at different stages of the research process. First, one was deployed to help determine the appropriate sample size of a planned study of sexual and reproductive health in Madhya Pradesh, India. Second, a datasheet was created to estimate the performance of an existing maternal health survey we conducted in Uttar Pradesh, India. Third, we validated generated performance estimates and investigated current limitations on the well-known ALARM dataset. Our experience demonstrates the utility of the Causal Datasheet, which can help global health practitioners gain more confidence when applying BNs.

Understanding drivers of family planning in rural northern India: An integrated mixed-methods approach.

BACKGROUND: Family planning is a key means to achieving many of the Sustainable Development Goals. Around the world, governments and partners have prioritized investments to increase access to and uptake of family planning methods. In Uttar Pradesh, India, the government and its partners have made significant efforts to increase awareness, supply, and access to modern contraceptives. Despite progress, uptake remains stubbornly low. This calls for systematic research into understanding the 'why'-why people are or aren't using modern methods, what drives their decisions, and who influences them. METHODS: We use a mixed-methods approach, analyzing three existing quantitative data sets to identify trends and geographic variation, gaps and contextual factors associated with family planning uptake and collecting new qualitative data through in-depth immersion interviews, journey mapping, and decision games to understand systemic and individual-level barriers to family planning use, household decision making patterns and community level barriers. RESULTS: We find that reasons for adoption of family planning are complex-while access and awareness are critical, they are not sufficient for increasing uptake of modern methods. Although awareness is necessary for uptake, we found a steep drop-off (59%) between high awareness of modern contraceptive methods and its intention to use, and an additional but smaller drop-off from intention to actual use (9%). While perceived access, age, education and other demographic variables partially predict modern contraceptive intention to use, the qualitative data shows that other behavioral drivers including household decision making dynamics, shame to obtain modern contraceptives, and high-risk perception around side-effects also contribute to low intention to use modern contraceptives. The data also reveals that strong norms and financial considerations by couples are the driving force behind the decision to use and when to use family planning methods. CONCLUSION: The finding stresses the need to shift focus towards building intention, in addition to ensuring access of trained staff, and commodities drugs and equipment, and building capacities of health care providers.

Facilities are substantially more influential than care providers in the quality of delivery care received: a variance decomposition and clustering analysis in Kenya, Malawi and India.

INTRODUCTION: Improving the quality of care during childbirth is essential for reducing neonatal and maternal mortality. One barrier to improving quality of care is understanding the appropriate level to target interventions. We examine quality of care data during labour and delivery from multiple countries to assess whether quality varies primarily from nurse to nurse within the same facility, or primarily between facilities. METHODS: To assess the relative contributions of nurses and facilities to variance in quality of care, we performed a variance decomposition analysis using a linear mixed effect model on two data sources: (1) the number of vital signs assessed for women in labour from a study of nurse practices in Uttar Pradesh, India; 2) broad-scale indices of respectful and competent care generated from Service Provision Assessments in Kenya and Malawi. We used unsupervised clustering, a data mining technique that groups objects together based on similar characteristics, to identify groups of facilities that displayed distinct patterns of vital signs assessment behaviour. RESULTS: We found 3-10 times more variance in quality of care was explained by the facility where a patient received care than by the nurse who provided it. The unsupervised clustering analysis revealed groups of facilities with highly distinct patterns of vital signs assessment, even when overall rates of vital signs assessments were similar (eg, some facilities consistently test fetal heart rate, but not other vitals, others only blood pressure). CONCLUSION: Facilities within a region can vary substantially in the quality of care they provide to women in labour, but within a facility, nurses tend to provide similar care. This holds true both for care that can be influenced by equipment availability and technical training (eg, vital signs assessment), as well as cultural aspects (eg, respectful care).

Bringing Greater Precision to Interactions Between Community Health Workers and Households to Improve Maternal and Newborn Health Outcomes in India.

INTRODUCTION: Community health workers (CHWs) play a key role in the health of mothers and newborns in low- and middle-income countries. However, it remains unclear by what actions and messages CHWs enable good outcomes and respectful care. METHODS: We collected a uniquely linked set of questions on behaviors, beliefs, and care pathways from recently delivered women (n=5,469), their husbands (n=3,064), mothers-in-law (n=3,626), and CHWs (accredited social health activists; n=1,052) in Uttar Pradesh, India. We used logistic regression to study associations between CHW actions and household behaviors during antenatal, delivery, and postnatal periods. RESULTS: Pregnant women who were visited earlier in pregnancy and who received multiple visits were more likely to perform recommended health behaviors including attending multiple checkups, consuming iron and folic acid tablets, and delivering in a health facility (ID), compared to women visited later or receiving fewer visits, respectively. Counseling the woman was associated with higher likelihood of attending 3+ checkups and consuming 100+ iron and folic acid tablets, whereas counseling the husband and mother-in-law was associated with higher rates of ID. Certain behavior change messages, such as the danger of complications, were associated with more checkups and ID, but were only used by 50%-80% of CHWs. During delivery, 57% of women had the CHW present, and their presence was associated with respectful care, early initiation of breastfeeding, and exclusive breastfeeding, but not with delayed bathing or clean cord care. The newborn was less likely to receive delayed bathing if the CHW incorrectly believed that newborns could be bathed soon after birth (which is believed by 30% of CHWs). CHW presence was associated with health behaviors more strongly for home than facility deliveries. Home visits after delivery were associated with higher rates of clean cord care and exclusive breastfeeding. Counseling the mother-in-law (but not the husband or woman) was associated with exclusive breastfeeding. CONCLUSION: We identified potential ways in which CHW impact could be improved, specifically by emphasizing the importance of home visits, which household members are targeted during these visits, and what messages are shared. Achieving this change will require training CHWs in counseling and behavior change and providing supervision and modern tools such as apps that can help the CHW keep track of her beneficiaries, suggest behavior change strategies, and direct attention to households that stand to gain the most from support.

Understanding why at-risk population segments do not seek care for tuberculosis: a precision public health approach in South India.

INTRODUCTION: Delaying care-seeking for tuberculosis (TB) symptoms is a major contributor to mortality, leading to worse outcomes and spread. To reduce delays, it is essential to identify barriers to care-seeking and target populations most at risk of delaying. Previous work identifies barriers only in people within the health system, often long after initial care-seeking. METHODS: We conducted a community-based survey of 84 625 households in Chennai, India, to identify 1667 people with TB-indicative symptoms in 2018-2019. Cases were followed prospectively to observe care-seeking behaviour. We used a comprehensive survey to identify care-seeking drivers, then performed multivariate analyses to identify care-seeking predictors. To identify profiles of individuals most at risk to delay care-seeking, we segmented the sample using unsupervised clustering. We then estimated the per cent of the TB-diagnosed population in Chennai in each segment. RESULTS: Delayed care-seeking characteristics include smoking, drinking, being employed, preferring different facilities than the community, believing to be at lower risk of TB and believing TB is common. Respondents who reported fever or unintended weight loss were more likely to seek care. Clustering analysis revealed seven population segments differing in care-seeking, from a retired/unemployed/disabled cluster, where 70% promptly sought care, to a cluster of employed men who problem-drink and smoke, where only 42% did so. Modelling showed 54% of TB-diagnosed people who delay care-seeking might belong to the latter segment, which is most likely to acquire TB and least likely to promptly seek care. CONCLUSION: Interventions to increase care-seeking should move from building general awareness to addressing treatment barriers such as lack of time and low-risk perception. Care-seeking interventions should address specific beliefs through a mix of educational, risk perception-targeting and social norms-based campaigns. Employed men who problem-drink and smoke are a prime target for interventions. Reducing delays in this group could dramatically reduce TB spread.

Closing the gap on institutional delivery in northern India: a case study of how integrated machine learning approaches can enable precision public health.

INTRODUCTION: Meeting ambitious global health goals with limited resources requires a precision public health (PxPH) approach. Here we describe how integrating data collection optimisation, traditional analytics and causal artificial intelligence/machine learning (ML) can be used in a use case for increasing hospital deliveries of newborns in Uttar Pradesh, India. METHODS: Using a systematic behavioural framework we designed a large-scale survey on perceptual, interpersonal and structural drivers of women's behaviour around childbirth (n=5613). Multivariate logistic regression identified factors associated with institutional delivery (ID). Causal ML determined the cause-and-effect ordering of these factors. Variance decomposition was used to parse sources of variation in delivery location, and a supervised learning algorithm was used to distinguish population subgroups. RESULTS: Among the factors found associated with ID, the causal model showed that having a delivery plan (OR=6.1, 95% CI 6.0 to 6.3), believing the hospital is safer than home (OR=5.4, 95% CI 5.1 to 5.6) and awareness of financial incentives were direct causes of ID (OR=3.4, 95% CI 3.3 to 3.5). Distance to the hospital, borrowing delivery money and the primary decision-maker were not causal. Individual-level factors contributed 69% of variance in delivery location. The segmentation analysis showed four distinct subgroups differentiated by ID risk perception, parity and planning. CONCLUSION: These findings generate a holistic picture of the drivers and barriers to ID in Uttar Pradesh and suggest distinct intervention points for different women. This demonstrates data optimised to identify key behavioural drivers, coupled with traditional and ML analytics, can help design a PxPH approach that maximise the impact of limited resources.

Morphogenetic and cellular movements that shape the mouse cerebellum; insights from genetic fate mapping.

We used the cerebellum as a model to study the morphogenetic and cellular processes underlying the formation of elaborate brain structures from a simple neural tube, using an inducible genetic fate mapping approach in mouse. We demonstrate how a 90 degrees rotation between embryonic days 9 and 12 converts the rostral-caudal axis of dorsal rhombomere 1 into the medial-lateral axis of the wing-like bilateral cerebellar primordium. With the appropriate use of promoters, we marked specific medial-lateral domains of the cerebellar primordium and derived a positional fate map of the murine cerebellum. We show that the adult medial cerebellum is produced by expansion, rather than fusion, of the thin medial primordium. Furthermore, ventricular-derived cells maintain their original medial-lateral coordinates into the adult, whereas rhombic lip-derived granule cells undergo lateral to medial posterior transverse migrations during foliation. Thus, we show that progressive changes in the axes of the cerebellum underlie its genesis.