The Safety of Inpatient Health Care.

BACKGROUND: Adverse events during hospitalization are a major cause of patient harm, as documented in the 1991 Harvard Medical Practice Study. Patient safety has changed substantially in the decades since that study was conducted, and a more current assessment of harm during hospitalization is warranted. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study to assess the frequency, preventability, and severity of patient harm in a random sample of admissions from 11 Massachusetts hospitals during the 2018 calendar year. The occurrence of adverse events was assessed with the use of a trigger method (identification of information in a medical record that was previously shown to be associated with adverse events) and from review of medical records. Trained nurses reviewed records and identified admissions with possible adverse events that were then adjudicated by physicians, who confirmed the presence and characteristics of the adverse events. RESULTS: In a random sample of 2809 admissions, we identified at least one adverse event in 23.6%. Among 978 adverse events, 222 (22.7%) were judged to be preventable and 316 (32.3%) had a severity level of serious (i.e., caused harm that resulted in substantial intervention or prolonged recovery) or higher. A preventable adverse event occurred in 191 (6.8%) of all admissions, and a preventable adverse event with a severity level of serious or higher occurred in 29 (1.0%). There were seven deaths, one of which was deemed to be preventable. Adverse drug events were the most common adverse events (accounting for 39.0% of all events), followed by surgical or other procedural events (30.4%), patient-care events (which were defined as events associated with nursing care, including falls and pressure ulcers) (15.0%), and health care-associated infections (11.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Adverse events were identified in nearly one in four admissions, and approximately one fourth of the events were preventable. These findings underscore the importance of patient safety and the need for continuing improvement. (Funded by the Controlled Risk Insurance Company and the Risk Management Foundation of the Harvard Medical Institutions.).

The Safety of Outpatient Health Care : Review of Electronic Health Records.

BACKGROUND: Despite considerable emphasis on delivering safe care, substantial patient harm occurs. Although most care occurs in the outpatient setting, knowledge of outpatient adverse events (AEs) remains limited. OBJECTIVE: To measure AEs in the outpatient setting. DESIGN: Retrospective review of the electronic health record (EHR). SETTING: 11 outpatient sites in Massachusetts in 2018. PATIENTS: 3103 patients who received outpatient care. MEASUREMENTS: Using a trigger method, nurse reviewers identified possible AEs and physicians adjudicated them, ranked severity, and assessed preventability. Generalized estimating equations were used to assess the association of having at least 1 AE with age, sex, race, and primary insurance. Variation in AE rates was analyzed across sites. RESULTS: The 3103 patients (mean age, 52 years) were more often female (59.8%), White (75.1%), English speakers (90.8%), and privately insured (70.4%) and had a mean of 4 outpatient encounters in 2018. Overall, 7.0% (95% CI, 4.6% to 9.3%) of patients had at least 1 AE (8.6 events per 100 patients annually). Adverse drug events were the most common AE (63.8%), followed by health care-associated infections (14.8%) and surgical or procedural events (14.2%). Severity was serious in 17.4% of AEs, life-threatening in 2.1%, and never fatal. Overall, 23.2% of AEs were preventable. Having at least 1 AE was less often associated with ages 18 to 44 years than with ages 65 to 84 years (standardized risk difference, -0.05 [CI, -0.09 to -0.02]) and more often associated with Black race than with Asian race (standardized risk difference, 0.09 [CI, 0.01 to 0.17]). Across study sites, 1.8% to 23.6% of patients had at least 1 AE and clinical category of AEs varied substantially. LIMITATION: Retrospective EHR review may miss AEs. CONCLUSION: Outpatient harm was relatively common and often serious. Adverse drug events were most frequent. Rates were higher among older adults. Interventions to curtail outpatient harm are urgently needed. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Controlled Risk Insurance Company and the Risk Management Foundation of the Harvard Medical Institutions.

Composite Metric for Benchmarking Site Performance in Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: Results From the STS/ACC TVT Registry.

BACKGROUND: Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) is a transformative therapy for aortic stenosis. Despite rapid improvements in technology and techniques, serious complications remain relatively common and are not well described by single outcome measures. The purpose of this study was to determine whether there is site-level variation in TAVR outcomes in the United States using a novel 30-day composite measure. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using data from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapies Registry to develop a novel ranked composite performance measure that incorporates mortality and serious complications. The selection and rank order of the complications for the composite was determined by their adjusted association with 1-year outcomes. Sites with risk-adjusted outcomes significantly more or less frequent than the national average based on a 95% probability interval were classified as performing worse or better than expected. RESULTS: The development cohort consisted of 52 561 patients who underwent TAVR between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2017. Based on associations with 1-year risk-adjusted mortality and health status, we identified 4 periprocedural complications to include in the composite risk model in addition to mortality. Ranked empirically according to severity, these included stroke, major, life-threatening or disabling bleeding, stage III acute kidney injury, and moderate or severe perivalvular regurgitation. Based on these ranked outcomes, we found that there was significant site-level variation in quality of care in TAVR in the United States. Overall, better than expected site performance was observed in 25/301 (8%) sites, performance as expected was observed in 242/301 sites (80%), and worse than expected performance was observed in 34/301 (11%) sites. Thirty-day mortality; stroke; major, life-threatening, or disabling bleeding; and moderate or severe perivalvular leak were each substantially more common in sites with worse than expected performance as compared with other sites. There was good aggregate reliability of the model. CONCLUSIONS: There are substantial variations in the quality of TAVR care received in the United States and 11% of sites were identified as providing care below the average level of performance. Further study is necessary to determine structural, process-related, and technical factors associated with high- and low-performing sites.

National Variation in Congenital Heart Surgery Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Optimal strategies to improve national congenital heart surgery outcomes and reduce variability across hospitals remain unclear. Many policy and quality improvement efforts have focused primarily on higher-risk patients and mortality alone. Improving our understanding of both morbidity and mortality and current variation across the spectrum of complexity would better inform future efforts. METHODS: Hospitals participating in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database (2014-2017) were included. Case mix-adjusted operative mortality, major complications, and postoperative length of stay were evaluated using Bayesian models. Hospital variation was quantified by the interdecile ratio (IDR, upper versus lower 10%) and 95% credible intervals (CrIs). Stratified analyses were performed by risk group (Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for Cardiothoracic Surgery [STAT] category) and simulations evaluated the potential impact of reductions in variation. RESULTS: A total of 102 hospitals (n=84 407) were included, representing ≈85% of US congenital heart programs. STAT category 1 to 3 (lower risk) operations comprised 74% of cases. All outcomes varied significantly across hospitals: adjusted mortality by 3-fold (upper versus lower decile 5.0% versus 1.6%, IDR 3.1 [95% CrI 2.5-3.7]), mean length of stay by 1.8-fold (19.2 versus 10.5 days, IDR 1.8 [95% CrI 1.8-1.9]), and major complications by >3-fold (23.5% versus 7.0%, IDR 3.4 [95% CrI 3.0-3.8]). The degree of variation was similar or greater for low- versus high-risk cases across outcomes, eg, ≈3-fold mortality variation across hospitals for STAT 1 to 3 (IDR 3.0 [95% CrI 2.1-4.2]) and STAT 4 or 5 (IDR 3.1 [95% CrI 2.4-3.9]) cases. High-volume hospitals had less variability across outcomes and risk categories. Simulations suggested potential reductions in deaths (n=282), major complications (n=1539), and length of stay (101 183 days) over the 4-year study period if all hospitals were to perform at the current median or better, with 37% to 60% of the improvement related to the STAT 1 to 3 (lower risk) group across outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate significant hospital variation in morbidity and mortality after congenital heart surgery. Contrary to traditional thinking, a substantial portion of potential improvements that could be realized on a national scale were related to variability among lower-risk cases. These findings suggest modifications to our current approaches to optimize care and outcomes in this population are needed.

Association of Hospital and Physician Characteristics and Care Processes With Racial Disparities in Procedural Outcomes Among Contemporary Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported that black patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery had worse outcomes than white patients, even after accounting for patient factors. The degree to which clinician, hospital, and care factors account for these outcome differences remains unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated procedural outcomes in 11,697 blacks and 136,362 whites undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass surgery at 663 Society of Thoracic Surgery Database participating sites (January 1, 2010 to June 30, 2011) adjusted for patients' clinical and socioeconomic features, hospital and surgeon effects, and care processes (internal mammary artery graft and perioperative medications use). Relative to whites, blacks undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery were younger, yet had higher comorbidities and more adverse presenting features. Blacks were also more likely to be treated at hospitals with higher risk-adjusted mortality. The use of internal mammary artery was marginally lower in blacks than in whites (93.3% versus 92.2%, P<0.0001). Unadjusted mortality and major morbidity rates were higher in blacks than in whites (1.8% versus 2.5%, P<0.0001) and (13.6% versus 19.4%, P<0.0001), respectively. These racial differences in outcomes narrowed but still persisted after adjusting for surgeon, hospital, and care processes in addition to patient and socioeconomic factors (odds ratio, 1.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.36 and odds ratio, 1.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.19-1.34, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The risks of procedural mortality and morbidity after coronary artery bypass surgery were higher among black patients than among white patients. These differences were in part accounted for by patient comorbidities, socioeconomic status, and surgeon, hospital, and care factors, as well, as suggested by the reduction in the strength of the race-outcomes association. However, black race remained an independent predictor of outcomes even after accounting for these differences.

Development of a clinical registry-based 30-day readmission measure for coronary artery bypass grafting surgery.

BACKGROUND: Reducing readmissions is a major healthcare reform goal, and reimbursement penalties are imposed for higher-than-expected readmission rates. Most readmission risk models and performance measures are based on administrative rather than clinical data. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined rates and predictors of 30-day all-cause readmission following coronary artery bypass grafting surgery by using nationally representative clinical data (2008-2010) from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Database linked to Medicare claims records. Among 265 434 eligible Medicare records, 226 960 (86%) were successfully linked to Society of Thoracic Surgeons records; 162 572 (61%) isolated coronary artery bypass grafting admissions constituted the study cohort. Logistic regression was used to identify readmission risk factors; hierarchical regression models were then estimated. Risk-standardized readmission rates ranged from 12.6% to 23.6% (median, 16.8%) among 846 US hospitals with ≥30 eligible cases and ≥90% of eligible Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services records linked to the Society of Thoracic Surgeons database. Readmission predictors (odds ratios [95% confidence interval]) included dialysis (2.02 [1.87-2.19]), severe chronic lung disease (1.58 [1.49-1.68]), creatinine (2.5 versus 1.0 or lower:1.49 [1.41-1.57]; 2.0 versus 1.0 or lower: 1.37 [1.32-1.43]), insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (1.45 [1.39-1.51]), obesity in women (body surface area 2.2 versus 1.8: 1.44 [1.35-1.53]), female sex (1.38 [1.33-1.43]), immunosuppression (1.38 [1.28-1.49]), preoperative atrial fibrillation (1.36 [1.30-1.42]), age per 10-year increase (1.36 [1.33-1.39]), recent myocardial infarction (1.24 [1.08-1.42]), and low body surface area in men (1.22 [1.14-1.30]). C-statistic was 0.648. Fifty-two hospitals (6.1%) had readmission rates statistically better or worse than expected. CONCLUSIONS: A coronary artery bypass grafting surgery readmission measure suitable for public reporting was developed by using the national Society of Thoracic Surgeons clinical data linked to Medicare readmission claims.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons voluntary public reporting initiative: the first 4 years.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate participant characteristics and outcomes during the first 4 years of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) public reporting program. BACKGROUND: This is the first detailed analysis of a national, voluntary, cardiac surgery public reporting program using STS clinical registry data and National Quality Forum-endorsed performance measures. METHODS: The distributions of risk-adjusted mortality rates, multidimensional composite performance scores, star ratings, and volumes for public reporting versus nonreporting sites were studied during 9 consecutive semiannual reporting periods (2010-2014). RESULTS: Among 8929 unique observations (∼1000 STS participant centers, 9 reporting periods), 916 sites (10.3%) were classified low performing, 6801 (76.2%) were average, and 1212 (13.6%) were high performing. STS public reporting participation varied from 22.2% to 46.3% over the 9 reporting periods. Risk-adjusted, patient-level mortality rates for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting were consistently lower in public reporting versus nonreporting sites (P value range: <0.001-0.0077). Reporting centers had higher composite performance scores and star ratings (23.2% high performing and 4.5% low performing vs 7.6% high performing and 13.8% low performing for nonreporting sites). STS public reporting sites had higher mean annualized coronary artery bypass grafting volumes than nonreporting sites (169 vs 145, P < 0.0001); high-performing programs had higher mean coronary artery bypass grafting volumes (n = 241) than average (n = 139) or low-performing (n = 153) sites. Risk factor prevalence (except reoperation) and expected mortality rates were generally stable during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: STS programs that voluntarily participate in public reporting have significantly higher volumes and performance. No evidence of risk aversion was found.

Comparative effectiveness of revascularization strategies.

BACKGROUND: Questions persist concerning the comparative effectiveness of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary-artery bypass grafting (CABG). The American College of Cardiology Foundation (ACCF) and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) collaborated to compare the rates of long-term survival after PCI and CABG. METHODS: We linked the ACCF National Cardiovascular Data Registry and the STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database to claims data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services for the years 2004 through 2008. Outcomes were compared with the use of propensity scores and inverse-probability-weighting adjustment to reduce treatment-selection bias. RESULTS: Among patients 65 years of age or older who had two-vessel or three-vessel coronary artery disease without acute myocardial infarction, 86,244 underwent CABG and 103,549 underwent PCI. The median follow-up period was 2.67 years. At 1 year, there was no significant difference in adjusted mortality between the groups (6.24% in the CABG group as compared with 6.55% in the PCI group; risk ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90 to 1.00). At 4 years, there was lower mortality with CABG than with PCI (16.4% vs. 20.8%; risk ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.82). Similar results were noted in multiple subgroups and with the use of several different analytic methods. Residual confounding was assessed by means of a sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In this observational study, we found that, among older patients with multivessel coronary disease that did not require emergency treatment, there was a long-term survival advantage among patients who underwent CABG as compared with patients who underwent PCI. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.).

Repeat coronary revascularization after coronary artery bypass surgery in older adults: the Society of Thoracic Surgeons' national experience, 1991-2007.

BACKGROUND: A major advantage of coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) relative to percutaneous coronary intervention is its durability, yet there is a paucity of information on rates and predictors of repeat coronary revascularization after CABG in the modern era. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included patients ≥65 years from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons' National Adult Cardiac Surgery Database who were undergoing first-time isolated CABG from 1991 to 2007 (n=723 134, median age 73 years). After linking to Medicare claims data, long-term outcomes of CABG (up to 18 years after surgery) were examined by use of cumulative incidence curves. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to identify factors associated with 1- and 5-year repeat revascularization trends and variability. We found that the overall 18-year survival rate was 20%. Cumulative incidences of any repeat revascularization (percutaneous coronary intervention or CABG, yet most often percutaneous coronary intervention) were 2%, 7%, 13%, and 16% at 1, 5, 10, and 18 years after surgery, respectively. The rates of repeat CABG procedures were quite low for all time points (0.1%, 0.6%, 1.3%, and 1.7%, respectively). Female sex, disease severity represented by a history of percutaneous coronary intervention, preoperative dialysis, and partial revascularization were strongly associated with a higher revascularization rate, whereas advanced age, left main disease, and smoking were associated with a lower rate. There was approximately a 2-fold variation in repeat revascularization rates across centers at 1 year (interquartile range 1.7-3.6%) and 5 years (interquartile range 6.7-12.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Repeat revascularization is performed infrequently among older patients who undergo CABG; however, these rates vary substantially by patient subgroups and among providers.

Incremental value of the preoperative echocardiogram to predict mortality and major morbidity in coronary artery bypass surgery.

BACKGROUND: Although echocardiography is commonly performed before coronary artery bypass surgery, there has yet to be a study examining the incremental prognostic value of a complete echocardiogram. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass surgery at 2 hospitals were divided into derivation and validation cohorts. A panel of quantitative echocardiographic parameters was measured. Clinical variables were extracted from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons database. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality or major morbidity, and the secondary outcome was long-term all-cause mortality. The derivation cohort consisted of 667 patients with a mean age of 67.2±11.1 years and 22.8% females. The following echocardiographic parameters were found to be optimal predictors of mortality or major morbidity: severe diastolic dysfunction, as evidenced by restrictive filling (odds ratio, 2.96; 95% confidence interval, 1.59-5.49), right ventricular dysfunction, as evidenced by fractional area change <35% (odds ratio, 3.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.28-7.20), or myocardial performance index >0.40 (odds ratio, 1.89; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-3.15). These results were confirmed in the validation cohort of 187 patients. When added to the Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk score, the echocardiographic parameters resulted in a net improvement in model discrimination and reclassification with a change in c-statistic from 0.68 to 0.73 and an integrated discrimination improvement of 5.9% (95% confidence interval, 2.8%-8.9%). In the Cox proportional hazards model, right ventricular dysfunction and pulmonary hypertension were independently predictive of mortality over 3.2 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative echocardiography, in particular right ventricular dysfunction and restrictive left ventricular filling, provides incremental prognostic value in identifying patients at higher risk of mortality or major morbidity after coronary artery bypass surgery.

Hospital teaching intensity and mortality for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Under the Affordable Care Act, health care reimbursement will increasingly be linked to quality and costs. In this environment, teaching hospitals will be closely scrutinized, as their care is often more expensive. Furthermore, although they serve vital roles in education, research, management of complex diseases, and care of vulnerable populations, debate continues as to whether teaching hospitals deliver better outcomes for common conditions. OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between risk-standardized mortality and teaching intensity for 3 common conditions. RESEARCH DESIGN: Using CMS models, 30-day risk-standardized mortality rates were compared among US hospitals classified as Council of Teaching Hospital (COTH) members, non-COTH teaching hospitals, or nonteaching hospitals. These analyses were repeated using ratios of interns and residents to beds to classify teaching intensity. SUBJECTS: The study cohort included Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 66 years or older hospitalized in acute care hospitals during 2009-2010 for acute myocardial infarction (N = 342,145), heart failure (N = 647,081), or pneumonia (N = 598,366). OUTCOME MEASURE: The 30-day risk-standardized mortality rates for each condition, stratified by teaching intensity. RESULTS: For each diagnosis, compared with nonteaching hospitals there was a 10% relative reduction in the adjusted odds of mortality for patients admitted to COTH hospitals and a 6%-7% relative reduction for patients admitted to non-COTH teaching hospitals. These findings were insensitive to the method of classifying teaching intensity and only partially explained by higher teaching hospital volumes. CONCLUSIONS: Health care reimbursement strategies designed to increase value should consider not only the costs but also the superior clinical outcomes at teaching hospitals for certain common conditions.

2024 Update of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Short-Term Esophagectomy Risk Model: More Inclusive and Improved Calibration.

BACKGROUND: The Society of Thoracic Surgeons General Thoracic Surgery Database (STS-GTSD) previously reported short-term risk models for esophagectomy for esophageal cancer. We sought to update existing models using more inclusive contemporary cohorts, with consideration of additional risk factors based on clinical evidence. METHODS: The study population consisted of adult patients in the STS-GTSD who underwent esophagectomy for esophageal cancer between January 2015 and December 2022. Separate esophagectomy risk models were derived for three primary endpoints: operative mortality, major morbidity, and composite morbidity or mortality. Logistic regression with backward selection was used with predictors retained in models if p<0.10. All derived models were validated using 9-fold cross validation. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed for the overall cohort and specified subgroups. RESULTS: A total of 18,503 patients from 254 centers underwent esophagectomy for esophageal cancer. Operative mortality, morbidity, and composite morbidity or mortality rates were 3.4%, 30.5% and 30.9%, respectively. Novel predictors of short-term outcomes in the updated models included body surface area and insurance payor type. Overall discrimination was similar or superior to previous GTSD models for operative mortality [C-statistic = 0.72] and for composite morbidity or mortality [C-statistic = 0.62], Model discrimination was comparable across procedure- and demographic-specific sub-cohorts. Model calibration was excellent in all patient sub-groups. CONCLUSIONS: The newly derived esophagectomy risk models showed similar or superior performance compared to previous models, with broader applicability and clinical face validity. These models provide robust preoperative risk estimation and can be used for shared decision-making, assessment of provider performance, and quality improvement.

Association Between Past and Present Operative Mortality in Congenital Heart Surgery: An Analysis of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database.

BACKGROUND: Mortality after congenital heart surgery is an important metric across benchmarking, quality, and reporting initiatives. All rely on estimates from prior years, and how well these reflect current outcomes is unclear. METHODS: Index operations from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Database (2014-2019) were included. Adjusted operative mortality in "past" 4-year and 1-year intervals vs the most recent year ("present") was evaluated using Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression with results presented as odds ratios and 95% credible intervals (CrI). RESULTS: Among 115,699 operations (106 hospitals), overall present observed mortality was 2.5%. Regression to the mean was evident, and individual hospital's present vs past adjusted mortality were only weakly correlated (-0.11 vs past 1-year data, 0.22 vs past 4-year data). A significant relationship was found between past and present mortality only for the group of hospitals in the highest mortality quartile, most prominent for past 4-year data (adjusted odds ratio vs lowest mortality quartile, 2.04; 95% CrI, 1.44-2.80). The proportion of present hospital mortality variation explained by past mortality quartile was 52% (95% CrI, 20%-90%) using past 4-year data and only 27% (95% CrI, 92%-83%) using past 1-year data. Overall 66% of hospitals changed mortality quartiles from past to present (30% by ≥2 quartiles). CONCLUSIONS: Past mortality relates to present primarily for groups of hospitals at the extremes, with past 4-year data more informative than past 1-year data. For individual hospitals, past may differ from present, regression to the mean is common, and many change quartiles. Past mortality should be used thoughtfully and not as the sole factor informing present decision making.

Outcomes of Isolated Tricuspid Valve Surgery: A Society of Thoracic Surgeons Analysis and Risk Model.

BACKGROUND: To provide patients and surgeons with clinically relevant information, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Adult Cardiac Surgery Database was queried to develop a risk model for isolated tricuspid valve (TV) operations. METHODS: All patients in the STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database who had undergone isolated TV repair or replacement (N = 13,587; age 48.3 ± 18.4 years) were identified (July 2017 to June 2023). Multivariable logistic regression accounting for TV replacement vs repair was used to model 8 operative outcomes: mortality, morbidity or mortality or both, stroke, renal failure, reoperation, prolonged ventilation, short hospital stay, and prolonged hospital stay. Model discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration were assessed using 9-fold cross-validation. RESULTS: The isolated TV study population included 41.1% repairs (N = 5,583; age 52.6 ± 18.1 years) and 58.9% replacements (N = 8,004; age 45.3 ± 18.0 years). The overall predicted risk of operative mortality was 5.6%, and it was similar in TV repairs and replacements (5.5% and 5.7%, respectively), as was the predicted risk of composite morbidity and mortality (28.2% and 26.8%). TV replacements were generally performed in younger patients with a higher endocarditis prevalence than TV repairs (45.7% vs 21.1%). The model yielded a C-statistic of 0.81 for mortality and 0.76 for the composite of morbidity and mortality, with excellent observed-to-expected calibration that was comparable in all subcohorts and predicted risk decile groups. CONCLUSIONS: An STS risk model has been developed for isolated TV surgery. The current mortality of isolated TV operations is lower than previously observed. This risk prediction model and these contemporary outcomes provide a new benchmark for current and future isolated TV interventions.

Prediction of long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention in older adults: results from the National Cardiovascular Data Registry.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to develop a long-term model to predict mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention in both patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and those with more stable coronary disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: The American College of Cardiology Foundation CathPCI Registry data were linked to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services 100% denominator file by probabilistic matching. Preprocedure demographic and clinical variables from the CathPCI Registry were used to predict the probability of death over 3 years as recorded in the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services database. Between 2004 and 2007, 343 466 patients (66%) of 518 195 patients aged ≥65 years undergoing first percutaneous coronary intervention in the CathPCI Registry were successfully linked to Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data. This study population was randomly divided into 60% derivation and 40% validation cohorts. Median follow-up was 15 months, with mortality of 3.0% at 30 days and 8.7%, 13.4%, and 18.7% at 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively. Twenty-four characteristics related to demographics, clinical comorbidity, prior history of disease, and indices of disease severity and acuity were identified as being associated with mortality. The C indices in the validation cohorts for patients with and without ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction were 0.79 and 0.78. The model calibrated well across a wide range of predicted probabilities. CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of the large and nationally representative CathPCI Registry, we have developed a model that has excellent discrimination, calibration, and validation to predict survival up to 3 years after percutaneous coronary intervention.

Predictors of long-term survival after coronary artery bypass grafting surgery: results from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (the ASCERT study).

BACKGROUND: Most survival prediction models for coronary artery bypass grafting surgery are limited to in-hospital or 30-day end points. We estimate a long-term survival model using data from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. METHODS AND RESULTS: The final study cohort included 348 341 isolated coronary artery bypass grafting patients aged ≥65 years, discharged between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2007, from 917 Society of Thoracic Surgeons-participating hospitals, randomly divided into training (n=174 506) and validation (n=173 835) samples. Through linkage with Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services claims data, we ascertained vital status from date of surgery through December 31, 2008 (1- to 6-year follow-up). Because the proportional hazards assumption was violated, we fit 4 Cox regression models conditional on being alive at the beginning of the following intervals: 0 to 30 days, 31 to 180 days, 181 days to 2 years, and >2 years. Kaplan-Meier-estimated mortality was 3.2% at 30 days, 6.4% at 180 days, 8.1% at 1 year, and 23.3% at 3 years of follow-up. Harrell's C statistic for predicting overall survival time was 0.732. Some risk factors (eg, emergency status, shock, reoperation) were strong predictors of short-term outcome but, for early survivors, became nonsignificant within 2 years. The adverse impact of some other risk factors (eg, dialysis-dependent renal failure, insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus) continued to increase. CONCLUSIONS: Using clinical registry data and longitudinal claims data, we developed a long-term survival prediction model for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. This provides valuable information for shared decision making, comparative effectiveness research, quality improvement, and provider profiling.

Variability in the measurement of hospital-wide mortality rates.

BACKGROUND: Several countries use hospital-wide mortality rates to evaluate the quality of hospital care, although the usefulness of this metric has been questioned. Massachusetts policymakers recently requested an assessment of methods to calculate this aggregate mortality metric for use as a measure of hospital quality. METHODS: The Massachusetts Division of Health Care Finance and Policy provided four vendors with identical information on 2,528,624 discharges from Massachusetts acute care hospitals from October 1, 2004, through September 30, 2007. Vendors applied their risk-adjustment algorithms and provided predicted probabilities of in-hospital death for each discharge and for hospital-level observed and expected mortality rates. We compared the numbers and characteristics of discharges and hospitals included by each of the four methods. We also compared hospitals' standardized mortality ratios and classification of hospitals with mortality rates that were higher or lower than expected, according to each method. RESULTS: The proportions of discharges that were included by each method ranged from 28% to 95%, and the severity of patients' diagnoses varied widely. Because of their discharge-selection criteria, two methods calculated in-hospital mortality rates (4.0% and 5.9%) that were twice the state average (2.1%). Pairwise associations (Pearson correlation coefficients) of discharge-level predicted mortality probabilities ranged from 0.46 to 0.70. Hospital-performance categorizations varied substantially and were sometimes completely discordant. In 2006, a total of 12 of 28 hospitals that had higher-than-expected hospital-wide mortality when classified by one method had lower-than-expected mortality when classified by one or more of the other methods. CONCLUSIONS: Four common methods for calculating hospital-wide mortality produced substantially different results. This may have resulted from a lack of standardized national eligibility and exclusion criteria, different statistical methods, or fundamental flaws in the hypothesized association between hospital-wide mortality and quality of care. (Funded by the Massachusetts Division of Health Care Finance and Policy.).