The art versus science of predicting prognosis: can a prognostic index predict short-term mortality better than experienced nurses do?

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a prognostic index could predict one-week mortality more accurately than hospice nurses can. METHOD: An electronic health record-based retrospective cohort study of 21,074 hospice patients was conducted in three hospice programs in the Southeast, Northeast, and Midwest United States. Model development used logistic regression with bootstrapped confidence intervals and multiple imputation to account for missing data. The main outcome measure was mortality within 7 days of hospice enrollment. RESULTS: A total of 21,074 patients were admitted to hospice between October 1, 2008 and May 31, 2011, and 5562 (26.4%) died within 7 days. An optimal predictive model included the Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) score, admission from a hospital, and gender. The model had a c-statistic of 0.86 in the training sample and 0.84 in the validation sample, which was greater than that of nurses' predictions (0.72). The index's performance was best for patients with pulmonary disease (0.89) and worst for patients with cancer and dementia (both 0.80). The index's predictions of mortality rates in each index category were within 5.0% of actual rates, whereas nurses underestimated mortality by up to 18.9%. Using the optimal index threshold (<3), the index's predictions had a better c-statistic (0.78 versus 0.72) and higher sensitivity (74.4% versus 47.8%) than did nurses' predictions but a lower specificity (80.6% versus 95.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Although nurses can often identify patients who will die within 7 days, a simple model based on available clinical information offers improved accuracy and could help to identify those patients who are at high risk for short-term mortality.

Which hospice patients with cancer are able to die in the setting of their choice? Results of a retrospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: To determine which hospice patients with cancer prefer to die at home and to define factors associated with an increased likelihood of dying at home. METHODS: An electronic health record-based retrospective cohort study was conducted in three hospice programs in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Main measures included preferred versus actual site of death. RESULTS: Of 7,391 patients, preferences regarding place of death were determined at admission for 5,837 (79%). After adjusting for other characteristics, patients who preferred to die at home were more likely to die at home (adjusted proportions, 56.5% v 37.0%; odds ratio [OR], 2.21; 95% CI, 1.77 to 2.76). Among those patients (n = 3,152) who preferred to die at home, in a multivariable logistic regression model, patients were more likely to die at home if they had at least one visit per day in the first 4 days of hospice care (adjusted proportions, 61% v 54%; OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.41), if they were married (63% v 54%; OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.10 to 1.44), and if they had an advance directive (65% v 50%; OR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.54 to 2.65). Patients with moderate or severe pain were less likely to die at home (OR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.45 to 0.64), as were patients with better functional status (higher Palliative Performance Scale score: < 40, 64.8%; 40 to 70, 50.2%; OR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.93; > 70, 40.5%; OR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.82). CONCLUSION: Increased hospice visit frequency may increase the likelihood of patients being able to die in the setting of their choice.