Climatic niche and neutral genetic diversity of the six Iberian pine species: a retrospective and prospective view.

Quaternary climatic fluctuations have left contrasting historical footprints on the neutral genetic diversity patterns of existing populations of different tree species. We should expect the demography, and consequently the neutral genetic structure, of taxa less tolerant to particular climatic extremes to be more sensitive to long-term climate fluctuations. We explore this hypothesis here by sampling all six pine species found in the Iberian Peninsula (2464 individuals, 105 populations), using a common set of chloroplast microsatellite markers, and by looking at the association between neutral genetic diversity and species-specific climatic requirements. We found large variation in neutral genetic diversity and structure among Iberian pines, with cold-enduring mountain species (Pinus uncinata, P. sylvestris and P. nigra) showing substantially greater diversity than thermophilous taxa (P. pinea and P. halepensis). Within species, we observed a significant positive correlation between population genetic diversity and summer precipitation for some of the mountain pines. The observed pattern is consistent with the hypotheses that: (i) more thermophilous species have been subjected to stronger demographic fluctuations in the past, as a consequence of their maladaptation to recurrent glacial cold stages; and (ii) altitudinal migrations have allowed the maintenance of large effective population sizes and genetic variation in cold-tolerant species, especially in more humid regions. In the light of these results and hypotheses, we discuss some potential genetic consequences of impending climate change.

Restricted pollen flow of Dieffenbachia seguine populations in fragmented and continuous tropical forest.

Habitat fragmentation can change the ecological context of populations, rupturing genetic connectivity among them, changing genetic structure, and increasing the loss of genetic diversity. We analyzed mating system and pollen structure in two population fragments and two continuous forest populations of Dieffenbachia seguine (Araceae), an insect-pollinated understory herb in the tropical rain forest of Los Tuxtlas, México, using nine allozyme loci. Mating system analysis indicated almost complete outcrossing but some inbreeding among the adults. Pollen structure analysis indicated highly restricted pollen flow, both within and among populations. We showed that the effective pollination neighborhood was small in all populations, and slightly (though not significantly) smaller in fragments, partially as a consequence of an increase in density of reproductive individuals in those fragments. Using assignment analysis, we showed that all populations were strongly structured, suggesting that pollen and seed flow across the Los Tuxtlas landscape has been spatially restricted, though sufficient to maintain connectedness. Forest fragmentation at Los Tuxtlas has (so far) had limited impact on pollen dynamics, despite the changing ecological context, with reduced pollinator abundance being partially offset by increased flowering density in fragments. Continued outcrossing and limited pollen immigration, coupled with more extensive seed migration, should maintain genetic connectedness in D. seguine, if fragmentation is not further exacerbated by additional deforestation.

Information Theory Broadens the Spectrum of Molecular Ecology and Evolution.

Information or entropy analysis of diversity is used extensively in community ecology, and has recently been exploited for prediction and analysis in molecular ecology and evolution. Information measures belong to a spectrum (or q profile) of measures whose contrasting properties provide a rich summary of diversity, including allelic richness (q=0), Shannon information (q=1), and heterozygosity (q=2). We present the merits of information measures for describing and forecasting molecular variation within and among groups, comparing forecasts with data, and evaluating underlying processes such as dispersal. Importantly, information measures directly link causal processes and divergence outcomes, have straightforward relationship to allele frequency differences (including monotonicity that q=2 lacks), and show additivity across hierarchical layers such as ecology, behaviour, cellular processes, and nongenetic inheritance.

Likelihood analysis of recombinational disequilibrium in multiple-locus gametic frequencies.

Likelihood methods are developed for the estimation and testing of multiple-locus gametic disequilibria, using log-linear models of parametric effects. The estimates of disquilibrium are related to Kimura's Z-measure, and may be extended to multiple alleles and multiple loci. Likelihood ratio test criteria are constructed, which are asymptotically distributed as chi(2). The analysis is partitioned into various components corresponding to two-locus, residual three-locus, and higher order disequilibria. A four-locus example from Hordeum vulgare L. is utilized to illustrate the analysis. Most of the multiple-locus disequilibrium is accounted for by two-locus effects, and closely linked loci show considerably more disequilibrium than unlinked loci. It is shown that all possible pairwise comparisons are not statistically independent.

Two-generation analysis of pollen flow across a landscape. II. Relation between phi(ft), pollen dispersal and interfemale distance.

We study the behavior of Phi(ft), a recently introduced estimator of instantaneous pollen flow, which is basically the intraclass correlation of inferred pollen cloud genetic frequencies among a sample of females drawn from a single population. Using standard theories of identity by descent and spatial processes, we show that Phi(ft) depends on the average distance of pollen dispersal (delta) and on the average distance between sampled mothers (x(1)). Provided that mothers are sampled far enough apart (x(1) > 5delta), Phi(ft) becomes independent of x(1) and is then inversely proportional to the square of delta. Provided that this condition is fulfilled, delta is directly estimable from Phi(ft). Even when x(1) < 5delta, estimation can easily be achieved via numerical evaluation. We show that the relation between Phi(ft) and delta is only modestly affected by the shape of the distribution function, a result of importance, since this shape is generally unknown. We also study the impact of adult density within the population on Phi(ft), showing that to achieve the correct inference of delta from Phi(ft) it must be taken into account, but that it has no effect on the distance at which mothers must be sampled.

Genetic analysis of male reproductive contributions in Chamaelirium luteum (L.) gray (Liliaceae).

Genealogical analysis is a powerful tool for analysis of reproductive performance in both natural and captive populations, but assignment of paternity has always been a stumbling block for this sort of work. Statistical methods for determining paternity have undergone several phases of development, ranging from straightforward genetic exclusion to assignment of paternity based on genetic likelihood criteria. In the present study, we present a genetic likelihood-based iterative procedure for fractional allocation of paternity within a progeny pool and apply this method to a population of Chamaelirium luteum, a dioecious member of the Liliaceae. Results from this analysis clearly demonstrate that different males make unequal contributions to the overall progeny pool, with many males contributing essentially nothing to the next generation. Furthermore, the distribution of paternal success among males shows a highly significant departure from (Poisson) randomness. The results from the present analysis were compared with earlier results obtained from the same data set, using likelihood-based categorical paternity assignments. The general biological pattern revealed by the two analyses is the same, but the estimates of reproductive success are only modestly (though significantly) correlated. The iterative procedure makes more complete use of the data and generates a more sharply resolved distribution of male reproductive success.

Using allele frequencies and geographic subdivision to reconstruct gene trees within a species: molecular variance parsimony.

We formalize the use of allele frequency and geographic information for the construction of gene trees at the intraspecific level and extend the concept of evolutionary parsimony to molecular variance parsimony. The central principle is to consider a particular gene tree as a variable to be optimized in the estimation of a given population statistic. We propose three population statistics that are related to variance components and that are explicit functions of phylogenetic information. The methodology is applied in the context of minimum spanning trees (MSTs) and human mitochondrial DNA restriction data, but could be extended to accommodate other tree-making procedures, as well as other data types. We pursue optimal trees by heuristic optimization over a search space of more than 1.29 billion MSTs. This very large number of equally parsimonious trees underlines the lack of resolution of conventional parsimony procedures. This lack of resolution is highlighted by the observation that equally parsimonious trees yield very different estimates of population genetic diversity and genetic structure, as shown by null distributions of the population statistics, obtained by evaluation of 10,000 random MSTs. We propose a non-parametric test for the similarity between any two trees, based on the distribution of a weighted coevolutionary correlation. The ability to test for tree relatedness leads to the definition of a class of solutions instead of a single solution. Members of the class share virtually all of the critical internal structure of the tree but differ in the placement of singleton branch tips.

Multivariate analysis of gametic disequilibrium in the Yanomama.

The gametic disequilibria between all possible pairs of loci were examined for a set of eight codominant loci in each of fifty Yanomama villages, using a multivariate correlation analysis which reduces the results to a single measure of departure from multiple-locus-gametic equilibrium. Thirty-two of the fifty villages departed significantly from multiple-locus gametic equilibrium. The largest contributions to the departure from multiple-locus equilibrium were due to the disequilibria between MN and Ss and between Rh(Cc) and Rh(Ee), indicating the effects of tight linkage. After removing the effects of these obvious sources of disequilibrium, sixteen of the fifty villages still remained significantly out of equilibrium. The disequilibrium between any particular pair of loci was highly erratic from village to village, and (with the exception of the MN-Ss and Cc-Ee disequilibria) averaged out very close to zero overall, suggesting a lack of systematic forces (epistatic selection). The departure from equilibrium in any one village is in excess of that expected from random sampling alone, and is attributed primarily to the fission-fusion mode of village formation operative in the Yanomama and the fact that a single village consists of a few extended lineages. Village allele frequencies are highly correlated across loci, and most of the non-independence is accounted for by large correlations in the average allelic frequencies of different loci for related villages. It is suggested that these correlations also are due to territorial expansion and population growth. For the tribe as a whole, all but the tightly linked markers of the MNSs and Rh complexes are approximately uncorrelated, and large departures from multiple-locus Hardy-Weinberg expectation are primarily due to substantial Wahlund variance within the tribe. There is no need to postulate a role for selection in these disequilibria.

Maximum likelihood analysis of population differences in allelic frequencies.

Statistical techniques are presented for the analysis of geographic variation in allelic frequencies. Likelihood ratio test criteria are derived from a multinominal sampling distribution, and are used to answer three questions. (1) Are there geographic differences in allelic frequencies? (2) Are population differences in allelic frequencies associated with environmental differences? (3) Is there any residual "lack of fit" variation among populations, after accounting for that variation associated with environmental differences? The two- and three-allele cases are explicitly treated, and the extension to more alleles is indicated.

A comparison of the genetic infrastructure of the Ye'cuana and the Yanomama: a likelihood analysis of genotypic variation among populations.

A general procedure is described for measuring and testing population differences in gametic frequencies. The total dispersion among populations is subdivided in hierachical fashion. The multiple-locus treatment is simply the sum of the single-locus analyses, provided gametic equilibrium obtains among the loci. In the event that gametic equilibrium does not obtain, correlations among loci need to be dealt with.--The analysis is then used to examine the genetic infrastructure of two Indian tribes from South America, the Ye'cuana (Makiritare) and the Yanomama. From historical evidence, we may identify several "clusters" of villages within each tribe. The demographic and cultural practices affecting village formation and the maintenance of peer integrity are rather different in these tribes, however, and lead us to postulate rather different patterns of genetic variation among villages. Analyses of five codominant two-allele loci, four dominant two-allele loci and two complex loci (with four codominant haplotypes each) demonstrate that Yanomama clusters are more disparate than Ye'cuana clusters, as would have been predicted on sociocultural grounds.

Parentage analysis with genetic markers in natural populations. I. The expected proportion of offspring with unambiguous paternity.

Recent studies indicate that polymorphic genetic markers are potentially helpful in resolving genealogical relationships among individuals in a natural population. Genetic data provide opportunities for paternity exclusion when genotypic incompatibilities are observed among individuals, and the present investigation examines the resolving power of genetic markers in unambiguous positive determination of paternity. Under the assumption that the mother for each offspring in a population is unambiguously known, an analytical expression for the fraction of males excluded from paternity is derived for the case where males and females may be derived from two different gene pools. This theoretical formulation can also be used to predict the fraction of births for each of which all but one male can be excluded from paternity. We show that even when the average probability of exclusion approaches unity, a substantial fraction of births yield equivocal mother-father-offspring determinations. The number of loci needed to increase the frequency of unambiguous determinations to a high level is beyond the scope of current electrophoretic studies in most species. Applications of this theory to electrophoretic data on Chamaelirium luteum (L.) shows that in 2255 offspring derived from 273 males and 70 females, only 57 triplets could be unequivocally determined with eight polymorphic protein loci, even though the average combined exclusionary power of these loci was 73%. The distribution of potentially compatible male parents, based on multilocus genotypes, was reasonably well predicted from the allele frequency data available for these loci. We demonstrate that genetic paternity analysis in natural populations cannot be reliably based on exclusionary principles alone. In order to measure the reproductive contributions of individuals in natural populations, more elaborate likelihood principles must be deployed.

Analysis of molecular variance inferred from metric distances among DNA haplotypes: application to human mitochondrial DNA restriction data.

We present here a framework for the study of molecular variation within a single species. Information on DNA haplotype divergence is incorporated into an analysis of variance format, derived from a matrix of squared-distances among all pairs of haplotypes. This analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) produces estimates of variance components and F-statistic analogs, designated here as phi-statistics, reflecting the correlation of haplotypic diversity at different levels of hierarchical subdivision. The method is flexible enough to accommodate several alternative input matrices, corresponding to different types of molecular data, as well as different types of evolutionary assumptions, without modifying the basic structure of the analysis. The significance of the variance components and phi-statistics is tested using a permutational approach, eliminating the normality assumption that is conventional for analysis of variance but inappropriate for molecular data. Application of AMOVA to human mitochondrial DNA haplotype data shows that population subdivisions are better resolved when some measure of molecular differences among haplotypes is introduced into the analysis. At the intraspecific level, however, the additional information provided by knowing the exact phylogenetic relations among haplotypes or by a nonlinear translation of restriction-site change into nucleotide diversity does not significantly modify the inferred population genetic structure. Monte Carlo studies show that site sampling does not fundamentally affect the significance of the molecular variance components. The AMOVA treatment is easily extended in several different directions and it constitutes a coherent and flexible framework for the statistical analysis of molecular data.

Multiple-locus departures from panmictic equilibrium within and between village gene pools of Amerindian tribes at different stages of agglomeration.

A comparative analysis of departures from multiple-locus Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium is presented for a set of four tribal Indian groups (the Yanomama, Makiritare, Wapishana and Ticuna) from the lowlands of South America. These tribes span a range of agglomeration and acculturation from the most traditional, swidden horticulturalists to frontier townspeople. The small-group social organization typical of traditional horticulturalists leads to substantial departures from tribal panmixia, as manifested by the distribution of multiple-locus genotypes both within and between villages. Within villages, the departures from single-locus Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium are small and nonsignificant, but the departures from gametic equilibrium (independence of loci) are substantial, even for the unlinked loci we have used to characterize these populations. The departures from single-locus homogeneity across villages are also substantial. One of the normal concomitants of increasing acculturation in this setting is an increase in agglomeration. As agglomeration increases, the departures from multiple-locus panmixia decrease, a process that can be very rapid. We discuss both the shifting balance theory of evolution and punctuated evolutionary rates in light of the small group social organization that must have obtained throughout most of human evolution.

The allelic correlation structure of Gainj- and Kalam-speaking people. II. The genetic distance between population subdivisions.

The patterning of allele frequency variability among 18 local groups of Gainj and Kalam speakers of highland Papua New Guinea is investigated using new genetic distance methods. The genetic distances proposed here are obtained by decomposing Sewall Wright's coefficient FST into a set of coefficients corresponding to all pairs of population subdivisions. Two statistical methods are given to estimate these quantities. One method provides estimates weighted by sample sizes, while the other method does not use sample size weighting. Both methods correct for the within-individual and between-individual-within-groups sums of squares. Genetic distances among the Gainj and Kalam subdivisions are analyzed with respect to demographic, geographic, and linguistic variables. We find that a demographic feature, group size, has the greatest demonstrable association with the patterning of genetic distances. The pattern of geographic distances among groups displays a weak congruence with the pattern of genetic distances, and the association of genetic and linguistic diversity is very low. An effect of differences in group size on genetic distances is not surprising, from basic theoretical considerations, but genetic distances have not often been analyzed with respect to these variables in the past. The lack of correspondence between genetic distances and linguistic and geographic differences is an unusual feature that distinguishes the Gainj and Kalam from most other tribal populations.

The genetic structure of a tribal population, the Yanomama Indians. XV. Patterns inferred by autocorrelation analysis.

Fifteen allele frequencies have previously been determined for 50 villages of the Yanomama, an Amerindian tribe from southern Venezuela and northern Brazil. These frequencies were subjected to spatial autocorrelation analysis to investigate their population structure. There are significant spatial patterns for most allele frequencies. Clinical patterns, investigated by one-dimensional and directional spatial correlograms, were relatively few in number and were moderate in strength. Overall, however, there is a marked decline in genetic similarity with geographic distance. The results are compatible with a hierarchic population structure superimposed on the geography, and generated by a stochastic fission-fusion model of village propagation, followed by localized gene flow. Strong temporal autocorrelations of allele frequencies based on linguistic-historical distances representing time since divergence were also found. There appears to be a stronger relation between geography and linguistic-historical hierarchic subdivisions than between either feature and genetic distances. These findings confirm by different approaches the results of earlier analyses concerning the important roles of both stochastic and social factors in determining village allele frequencies and the occurrence within this tribe of some allele frequency clines most likely due to the operation of chance historical processes.

Patterns of molecular variation. II. associations of electrophoretic mobility and larval substrate within species of the Drosophila mulleri complex.

Electromorphic variation among populations of Drosophila mojavensis, D. arizonensis and D. longicornis was examined for seven genetic loci. The average electrophoretic mobility for a population was used as the metric. D. mojavensis and D. arizonensis use larval substrates in different parts of their geographic ranges, while D. longicornis is more narrowly restricted to different species of the cactus Opuntia in different localities. There is marked electromorphic variation among populations of either D. mojavensis of D. arizonensis, and the bulk of this variation is accounted for by differences in laval substrate. There is somewhat less variation among populations of D. longicornis, and only a moderate portion of this is accounted for by larval substrate differences. There appears to be an association between the taxonomic diversity of the larval substrates and the electromorphic diversity of the Drosophila populations utilizing those substrates. Evidence is reviewed that suggests physiological mechanisms for these possibly adaptive associations.

The impact of random and lineal fission of the genetic divergence of small human groups: a case study among the Yanomama.

Most of the genetic divergence that currently separates populations of Homo sapiens must have arisen during that long period when the local village (or band) was the basic unit of biological evolution. Studies of tribally intact Amerindian groups exhibiting such small-group organization have demonstrated marked genetic divergence between nearby villages. Some of this genetic radiation can be attributed to the effects of random genetic drift over time within these small demes. Some of it, however, might be better ascribed to the consequences of nonrandom genetic assortment at the time of village fission, a recurring event for such groups. Even random genetic assortment at the time of fission would lead to some genetic divergence, due to the finite size of the parent gene pool. We term the genetic consequences of random assortment the random fission effect. Routinely, village fission occurs along family lines, leading to even greater genetic divergence between the daughter villages. We use the term lineal fission effect to describe the genetic consequences of nonrandom assortment and contrast these results with those derived from random assortment--A formal treatment of random and lineal fission effects is developed, first for the single-locus case, then for the multiple-locus extension. Using this formulation, three Yanomama fission events were examined. Fission in the Yanomama often involves a great deal of mutual hostility between the two factions, so that subsequent gene flow between the two daughter villages is minimal. The first two examples are typical of the Yanomama behavior norm, and are accompanied by a minimum of subsequent gene flow between the daughter villages. In these two cases, the observed divergence values are very large and are also very unlikely under random fission. The lineal fission effect is pronounced. The net impact of lineal fission is to reduce the effective size of the village at the time of fission by a factor of four, relative to expectation from random fission. The third example, however, involved an unusually amicable split of a village, followed by free genetic exchange between the fission products. This "friendly fission" yields an observed divergence value not much in excess of the expectation from random fission.--The long-term consequences of such fission bottlenecks in effective population size are discussed for both intra- and inter-tribal genetic diversity. It appears that the rate of genetic divergence for tribal and subtribal groups may have been somewhat greater than would be expected from classical drift arguments.

Two-generation analysis of pollen flow across a landscape. I. Male gamete heterogeneity among females.

Gene flow is a key factor in the spatial genetic structure in spatially distributed species. Evolutionary biologists interested in microevolutionary processess and conservation biologists interested in the impact of landscape change require a method that measures the real time process of gene movement. We present a novel two-generation (parent-offspring) approach to the study of genetic structure (TwoGener) that allows us to quantify heterogeneity among the male gamete pools sampled by maternal trees scattered across the landscape and to estimate mean pollination distance and effective neighborhood size. First, we describe the model's elements: genetic distance matrices to estimate intergametic distances, molecular analysis of variance to determine whether pollen profiles differ among mothers, and optimal sampling considerations. Second, we evaluate the model's effectiveness by simulating spatially distributed populations. Spatial heterogeneity in male gametes can be estimated by phiFT, a male gametic analogue of Wright's F(ST) and an inverse function of mean pollination distance. We illustrate TwoGener in cases where the male gamete can be categorically or ambiguously determined. This approach does not require the high level of genetic resolution needed by parentage analysis, but the ambiguous case is vulnerable to bias in the absence of adequate genetic resolution. Finally, we apply TwoGener to an empirical study of Quercus alba in Missouri Ozark forests. We find that phiFT = 0.06, translating into about eight effective pollen donors per female and an effective pollination neighborhood as a circle of radius about 17 m. Effective pollen movement in Q. alba is more restricted than previously realized, even though pollen is capable of moving large distances. This case study illustrates that, with a modest investment in field survey and laboratory analysis, the TwoGener approach permits inferences about landscape-level gene movements.

Ecological specialization of Hawaiian Drosophila : II. The community matrix, ecological complementation, and phyletic species packing.

The ecological overlap of three species of Hawaiian Drosophila: D. mimica D. kambysellisi, and D. imparisetae, has been investigated by analysis of the community matrix. The basic model is a Lotka-Volterra formulation, suitably expanded to include sexual dimorphism. We have also investigated equilibrium population sizes and stability properties of all possible communities which might be constructed from these species. Our findings are: 1) There is considerable ecological diversification among these species and between sexes of the same species. 2) The two sexes of any one species overlap more than does either with other components of the community. 3) The two sibling species, D. mimica and D. kambysellisi overlap the least, and D. imparisetae is ecologically intermediate. 4) The current three-species community supports greater numbers than would be maintained by any of the one- or two-species alternatives, and appears to make more efficient use of the available resources. 5) The present community is numerically stable. Although its taxonomic saturation is difficult to judge with certainty, it appears to be unsaturated. 6) The simpler communities would all be invasible by the remaining species. The implications for sympatric speciation of D. mimica and D. kambysellisi are discussed. It is suggested that D. imparisetae might have acted as an ecological wedge, contributing to ecological displacement, reproductive isolation, and further species packing.