Rapid COVID-19 Screening Based on Self-Reported Symptoms: Psychometric Assessment and Validation of the EPICOVID19 Short Diagnostic Scale.

BACKGROUND: Confirmed COVID-19 cases have been registered in more than 200 countries, and as of July 28, 2020, over 16 million cases have been reported to the World Health Organization. This study was conducted during the epidemic peak of COVID-19 in Italy. The early identification of individuals with suspected COVID-19 is critical in immediately quarantining such individuals. Although surveys are widely used for identifying COVID-19 cases, outcomes, and associated risks, no validated epidemiological tool exists for surveying SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the capability of self-reported symptoms in discriminating COVID-19 to identify individuals who need to undergo instrumental measurements. We defined and validated a method for identifying a cutoff score. METHODS: Our study is phase II of the EPICOVID19 Italian national survey, which launched in April 2020 and included a convenience sample of 201,121 adults who completed the EPICOVID19 questionnaire. The Phase II questionnaire, which focused on the results of nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) and serological tests, was mailed to all subjects who previously underwent NPS tests. RESULTS: Of 2703 subjects who completed the Phase II questionnaire, 694 (25.7%) were NPS positive. Of the 472 subjects who underwent the immunoglobulin G (IgG) test and 421 who underwent the immunoglobulin M test, 22.9% (108/472) and 11.6% (49/421) tested positive, respectively. Compared to NPS-negative subjects, NPS-positive subjects had a higher incidence of fever (421/694, 60.7% vs 391/2009, 19.5%; P<.001), loss of taste and smell (365/694, 52.6% vs 239/2009, 11.9%; P<.001), and cough (352/694, 50.7% vs 580/2009, 28.9%; P<.001). With regard to subjects who underwent serological tests, IgG-positive subjects had a higher incidence of fever (65/108, 60.2% vs 43/364, 11.8%; P<.001) and pain in muscles/bones/joints (73/108, 67.6% vs 71/364, 19.5%; P<.001) than IgG-negative subjects. An analysis of self-reported COVID-19 symptom items revealed a 1-factor solution, the EPICOVID19 diagnostic scale. The following optimal scores were identified: 1.03 for respiratory problems, 1.07 for chest pain, 0.97 for loss of taste and smell 0.97, and 1.05 for tachycardia (ie, heart palpitations). These were the most important symptoms. For adults aged 18-84 years, the cutoff score was 2.56 (sensitivity: 76.56%; specificity: 68.24%) for NPS-positive subjects and 2.59 (sensitivity: 80.37%; specificity: 80.17%) for IgG-positive subjects. For subjects aged ≥60 years, the cutoff score was 1.28, and accuracy based on the presence of IgG antibodies improved (sensitivity: 88.00%; specificity: 89.58%). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a short diagnostic scale to detect subjects with symptoms that were potentially associated with COVID-19 from a wide population. Our results support the potential of self-reported symptoms in identifying individuals who require immediate clinical evaluations. Although these results come from the Italian pandemic period, this short diagnostic scale could be optimized and tested as a screening tool for future similar pandemics.

Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Italy Using Real-World Data: Methodology and Cohort Description of the Second Phase of Web-Based EPICOVID19 Study.

Digital technologies have been extensively employed in response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic worldwide. This study describes the methodology of the two-phase internet-based EPICOVID19 survey, and the characteristics of the adult volunteer respondents who lived in Italy during the first (April-May 2020) and the second wave (January-February 2021) of the epidemic. Validated scales and ad hoc questionnaires were used to collect socio-demographic, medical and behavioural characteristics, as well as information on COVID-19. Among those who provided email addresses during phase I (105,355), 41,473 participated in phase II (mean age 50.7 years ± 13.5 SD, 60.6% females). After a median follow-up of ten months, 52.8% had undergone nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) testing and 13.2% had a positive result. More than 40% had undergone serological test (ST) and 11.9% were positive. Out of the 2073 participants with at least one positive ST, 72.8% had only negative results from NPS or never performed it. These results indicate that a large fraction of individuals remained undiagnosed, possibly contributing to the spread of the virus in the community. Participatory online surveys offer a unique opportunity to collect relevant data at individual level from large samples during confinement.

Accessibility to SARS-CoV-2 swab test during the Covid-19 pandemic: Did age make the difference?

Although COVID-19 affects older people more severely, health policies during the first wave of the pandemic often prioritized younger individuals. We investigated whether age had influenced the access to a diagnostic test for SARS-CoV-2 infection and whether clinical complexity and healthcare resources availability could have impacted such differences. This work included 126,741 Italian participants in the EPICOVID19 web-based survey, who reported having had contacts with known/suspected COVID-19 cases (epidemiological criterion) and/or COVID-19-like signs/symptoms (clinical criterion) from February to June 2020. Data on sociodemographic, medical history and access to SARS-CoV-2 nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) were collected. Logistic regressions estimated the probability of accessing NPS as a function of age and the possible modifying effect of chronic diseases' number and residential areas in such association. A total of 6136 (4.8%) participants had undergone an NPS. Older participants had lower NPS frequencies than the younger ones when reporting epidemiological (14.9% vs. 8.8%) or both epidemiological and clinical criteria (17.5% vs. 13.7%). After adjustment for potential confounders, including epidemiological and clinical criteria, the chance of NPS access decreased by 29% (OR=0.71, 95%CI:0.63-0.79) in older vs. younger individuals. Such disparity was accentuated in areas with greater healthcare resources. In conclusion, in the first wave of the pandemic, age may have affected the access to COVID-19 diagnostic testing, disadvantaging older people.

Age-Related Changes in Clinical Presentation of Covid-19: the EPICOVID19 Web-Based Survey.

BACKGROUND: The influence of aging and multimorbidity on Covid-19 clinical presentation is still unclear. OBJECTIVES: We investigated whether the association between symptoms (or cluster of symptoms) and positive SARS-CoV-2 nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) was different according to patients' age and presence of multimorbidity. METHODS: The study included 6680 participants in the EPICOVID19 web-based survey, who reported information about symptoms from February to June 2020 and who underwent at least one NPS. Symptom clusters were identified through hierarchical cluster analysis. The associations between symptoms (and clusters of symptoms) and positive NPS were investigated through multivariable binary logistic regression in the sample stratified by age (<65 vs ≥65 years) and number of chronic diseases (0 vs 1 vs ≥2). RESULTS: The direct association between taste/smell disorders and positive NPS was weaker in older and multimorbid patients than in their younger and healthier counterparts. Having reported no symptoms reduced the chance of positive NPS by 86% in younger (95%CI: 0.11-0.18), and by 46% in older participants (95%CI: 0.37-0.79). Of the four symptom clusters identified (asymptomatic, generic, flu-like, and combined generic and flu-like symptoms), those associated with a higher probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection were the flu-like for older people, and the combined generic and flu-like for the younger ones. CONCLUSIONS: Older age and pre-existing chronic diseases may influence the clinical presentation of Covid-19. Symptoms at disease onset tend to aggregate differently by age. New diagnostic algorithms considering age and chronic conditions may ease Covid-19 diagnosis and optimize health resources allocation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04471701 (ClinicalTrials.gov).

Association Between Smoking and SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Cross-sectional Study of the EPICOVID19 Internet-Based Survey.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have reported a low prevalence of current smoking among hospitalized COVID-19 cases; however, no definitive conclusions can be drawn. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association of tobacco smoke exposure with nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) test results for SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease severity accounting for possible confounders. METHODS: The nationwide, self-administered, cross-sectional web-based Italian National Epidemiological Survey on COVID-19 (EPICOVID19) was administered to an Italian population of 198,822 adult volunteers who filled in an online questionnaire between April 13 and June 2, 2020. For this study, we analyzed 6857 individuals with known NPS test results. The associations of smoking status and the dose-response relationship with a positive NPS test result and infection severity were calculated as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs by means of logistic and multinomial regression models adjusting for sociodemographic, clinical, and behavioral characteristics. RESULTS: Out of the 6857 individuals (mean age 47.9 years, SD 14.1; 4516/6857, 65.9% female), 63.2% (4334/6857) had never smoked, 21.3% (1463/6857) were former smokers, and 15.5% (1060/6857) were current smokers. Compared to nonsmokers, current smokers were younger, were more educated, were less affected by chronic diseases, reported COVID-19-like symptoms less frequently, were less frequently hospitalized, and less frequently tested positive for COVID-19. In multivariate analysis, current smokers had almost half the odds of a positive NPS test result (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.45-0.65) compared to nonsmokers. We also found a dose-dependent relationship with tobacco smoke: mild smokers (adjusted OR [aOR] 0.76, 95% CI 0.55-1.05), moderate smokers (aOR 0.56, 95% CI 0.42-0.73), and heavy smokers (aOR 0.38, 95% CI 0.27-0.53). This inverse association also persisted when considering the severity of the infection. Current smokers had a statistically significantly lower probability of having asymptomatic (aOR 0.50, 95% CI 0.27-0.92), mild (aOR 0.65, 95% CI 0.53-0.81), and severe infections (aOR 0.27, 95% CI 0.17-0.42) compared to those who never smoked. CONCLUSIONS: Current smoking was negatively associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection with a dose-dependent relationship. Ad hoc experimental studies are needed to elucidate the mechanisms underlying this association. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04471701; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04471701.

The Association between Influenza and Pneumococcal Vaccinations and SARS-Cov-2 Infection: Data from the EPICOVID19 Web-Based Survey.

The present study aims to evaluate whether influenza and pneumococcal vaccinations are associated with positive nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) testing to detect SARS-CoV-2. Data from the Italian cross-sectional web-based survey (EPICOVID19), based on a self-selection sample of individuals aged ≥18, were considered. The probability of a positive SARS-CoV-2 NPS test result as a function of influenza or anti-pneumococcal vaccination was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression, stratifying analysis by age (<65 years, ≥65 years). From April 2020, 170,731 individuals aged <65 years and 28,097 ≥65 years filled out the EPICOVID19 questionnaire. Influenza and anti-pneumococcal vaccinations were received, respectively, by 16% and 2% of those <65 years, and by 53% and 13% of those ≥65 years. SARS-CoV-2 NPS testing was reported by 6680 participants. Anti-pneumococcal and influenza vaccinations were associated with a decreased probability of a SARS-CoV-2 NPS positive test in the younger participants (OR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.41-0.91; OR = 0.85, 95%CI 0.74-0.98; respectively). A significantly lower probability of a positive test result was detected in the individuals ≥65 years who received anti-pneumococcal vaccination (OR = 0.56, 95%CI 0.33-0.95). These results need to be confirmed by further investigations, but they are relevant given the probable coexistence of influenza, bacterial infections, and COVID-19 over the coming autumn-winter season.

Self-Reported Symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in a Nonhospitalized Population in Italy: Cross-Sectional Study of the EPICOVID19 Web-Based Survey.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the occurrence of symptoms resembling those of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in a large nonhospitalized population at the peak of the epidemic in Italy is of paramount importance; however, data are currently scarce. OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to evaluate the association of self-reported symptoms with SARS-CoV-2 nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) test results in nonhospitalized individuals and to estimate the occurrence of symptoms associated with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in a larger nontested population. METHODS: EPICOVID19 is a self-administered cross-sectional voluntary web-based survey of adults throughout Italy who completed an anonymous questionnaire in the period of April 13 to 21, 2020. The associations between symptoms potentially related to SARS-CoV-2 infection and NPS results were calculated as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% CIs by multiple logistic regression analysis controlling for age, sex, education, smoking habits, and number of comorbidities. Thereafter, for each symptom and for combinations of the symptoms, we calculated the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and areas under the curve (AUCs) in a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to estimate the occurrence of COVID-19-like infection in the nontested population. RESULTS: A total of 171,310 people responded to the survey, of whom 102,543 (59.9%) were women; mean age 47.4 years. Out of the 4785 respondents with known NPS test results, 4392 were not hospitalized. Among the 4392 nonhospitalized respondents, those with positive NPS tests (856, 19.5%) most frequently reported myalgia (527, 61.6%), olfactory and taste disorders (507, 59.2%), cough (466, 54.4%), and fever (444, 51.9%), whereas 7.7% were asymptomatic. Multiple regression analysis showed that olfactory and taste disorders (aOR 10.3, 95% CI 8.4-12.7), fever (aOR 2.5, 95% CI 2.0-3.1), myalgia (aOR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2-1.8), and cough (aOR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0-1.6) were associated with NPS positivity. Having two to four of these symptoms increased the aOR from 7.4 (95% CI 5.6-9.7) to 35.5 (95% CI 24.6-52.2). The combination of the four symptoms showed an AUC of 0.810 (95% CI 0.795-0.825) in classifying positive NPS test results and then was applied to the nonhospitalized and nontested sample (n=165,782). We found that 7739 to 20,103 of these 165,782 respondents (4.4% to 12.1%) had experienced symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 infection. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that self-reported symptoms are reliable indicators of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a pandemic context. A nonnegligible number of symptomatic respondents (up to 12.1%) were undiagnosed and potentially contributed to the spread of the infection. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04471701; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04471701.

Missed Opportunities of Flu Vaccination in Italian Target Categories: Insights from the Online EPICOVID 19 Survey.

We aimed to assess the reported rate of flu vaccination in the 2019/2020 season for respondents to the Italian nationwide online EPICOVID 19 survey. A national convenience sample of volunteers aged 18 or older was assessed between 13 April and 2 June 2020. Flu vaccine rates were calculated for all classes of age. The association between the independent variables and the flu vaccine was assessed by applying a multivariable binary logistic regression model. Of the 198,822 respondents, 41,818 (21.0%) reported having received a flu vaccination shot during the last influenza season. In particular, 15,009 (53.4%) subjects aged 65 years or older received a flu vaccination shot. Being 65 years aged or older (Adjusted Odds Ratios (aOR) 3.06, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 2.92-3.20) and having a high education level (aOR 1.34. 95%CI 1.28-1.41) were independently associated to flu vaccination. Heart and lung diseases were the morbidities associated with the higher odds of being vaccinated (aOR 1.97 (95%CI 1.86-2.09) and aOR 1.92 (95%CI 1.84-2.01), respectively). Nursing home residents aged ≥ 65 years showed lower odds of being vaccinated (aOR 0.39 (95%CI 0.28-0.54)). Our data indicate the need for an urgent public heath effort to fill the gap of missed vaccination opportunities reported in the past flu seasons.

Candidate Genes and MiRNAs Linked to the Inverse Relationship Between Cancer and Alzheimer's Disease: Insights From Data Mining and Enrichment Analysis.

The incidence of cancer and Alzheimer's disease (AD) increases exponentially with age. A growing body of epidemiological evidence and molecular investigations inspired the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between these two pathologies. It has been proposed that the two diseases might utilize the same proteins and pathways that are, however, modulated differently and sometimes in opposite directions. Investigation of the common processes underlying these diseases may enhance the understanding of their pathogenesis and may also guide novel therapeutic strategies. Starting from a text-mining approach, our in silico study integrated the dispersed biological evidence by combining data mining, gene set enrichment, and protein-protein interaction (PPI) analyses while searching for common biological hallmarks linked to AD and cancer. We retrieved 138 genes (ALZCAN gene set), computed a significant number of enriched gene ontology clusters, and identified four PPI modules. The investigation confirmed the relevance of autophagy, ubiquitin proteasome system, and cell death as common biological hallmarks shared by cancer and AD. Then, from a closer investigation of the PPI modules and of the miRNAs enrichment data, several genes (SQSTM1, UCHL1, STUB1, BECN1, CDKN2A, TP53, EGFR, GSK3B, and HSPA9) and miRNAs (miR-146a-5p, MiR-34a-5p, miR-21-5p, miR-9-5p, and miR-16-5p) emerged as promising candidates. The integrative approach uncovered novel miRNA-gene networks (e.g., miR-146 and miR-34 regulating p62 and Beclin1 in autophagy) that might give new insights into the complex regulatory mechanisms of gene expression in AD and cancer.

Modularising ontology and designing inference patterns to personalise health condition assessment: the case of obesity.

BACKGROUND: The public health initiatives for obesity prevention are increasingly exploiting the advantages of smart technologies that can register various kinds of data related to physical, physiological, and behavioural conditions. Since individual features and habits vary among people, the design of appropriate intervention strategies for motivating changes in behavioural patterns towards a healthy lifestyle requires the interpretation and integration of collected information, while considering individual profiles in a personalised manner. The ontology-based modelling is recognised as a promising approach in facing the interoperability and integration of heterogeneous information related to characterisation of personal profiles. RESULTS: The presented ontology captures individual profiles across several obesity-related knowledge-domains structured into dedicated modules in order to support inference about health condition, physical features, behavioural habits associated with a person, and relevant changes over time. The modularisation strategy is designed to facilitate ontology development, maintenance, and reuse. The domain-specific modules formalised in the Web Ontology Language (OWL) integrate the domain-specific sets of rules formalised in the Semantic Web Rule Language (SWRL). The inference rules follow a modelling pattern designed to support personalised assessment of health condition as age- and gender-specific. The test cases exemplify a personalised assessment of the obesity-related health conditions for the population of teenagers. CONCLUSION: The paper addresses several issues concerning the modelling of normative concepts related to obesity and depicts how the public health concern impacts classification of teenagers according to their phenotypes. The modelling choices regarding the ontology-structure are explained in the context of the modelling goal to integrate multiple knowledge-domains and support reasoning about the individual changes over time. The presented modularisation pattern enhances reusability of the domain-specific modules across various health care domains.

Open biomedical pluralism: formalising knowledge about breast cancer phenotypes.

We demonstrate a heterogeneity of representation types for breast cancer phenotypes and stress that the characterisation of a tumour phenotype often includes parameters that go beyond the representation of a corresponding empirically observed tumour, thus reflecting significant functional features of the phenotypes as well as epistemic interests that drive the modes of representation. Accordingly, the represented features of cancer phenotypes function as epistemic vehicles aiding various classifications, explanations, and predictions. In order to clarify how the plurality of epistemic motivations can be integrated on a formal level, we give a distinction between six categories of human agents as individuals and groups focused around particular epistemic interests. We analyse the corresponding impact of these groups and individuals on representation types, mapping and reasoning scenarios. Respecting the plurality of representations, related formalisms, expressivities and aims, as they are found across diverse scientific communities, we argue for a pluralistic ontology integration. Moreover, we discuss and illustrate to what extent such a pluralistic integration is supported by the distributed ontology language DOL, a meta-language for heterogeneous ontology representation that is currently under standardisation as ISO WD 17347 within the OntoIOp (Ontology Integration and Interoperability) activity of ISO/TC 37/SC 3. We particularly illustrate how DOL supports representations of parthood on various levels of logical expressivity, mapping of terms, merging of ontologies, as well as non-monotonic extensions based on circumscription allowing a transparent formal modelling of the normal/abnormal distinction in phenotypes.