Identifying Potential Factors Associated with High HIV viral load in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa using Multiple Correspondence Analysis and Random Forest Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sustainable Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) virological suppression is crucial to achieving the Joint United Nations Programme of HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 95-95-95 treatment targets to reduce the risk of onward HIV transmission. Exploratory data analysis is an integral part of statistical analysis which aids variable selection from complex survey data for further confirmatory analysis. METHODS: In this study, we divulge participants' epidemiological and biological factors with high HIV RNA viral load (HHVL) from an HIV Incidence Provincial Surveillance System (HIPSS) sequential cross-sectional survey between 2014 and 2015 KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) and random forest analysis (RFA), we analyzed the linkage between socio-demographic, behavioral, psycho-social, and biological factors associated with HHVL, defined as ≥400 copies per m/L. RESULTS: Out of 3956 in 2014 and 3868 in 2015, 50.1% and 41% of participants, respectively, had HHVL. MCA and RFA revealed that knowledge of HIV status, ART use, ARV dosage, current CD4 cell count, perceived risk of contracting HIV, number of lifetime HIV tests, number of lifetime sex partners, and ever diagnosed with TB were consistent potential factors identified to be associated with high HIV viral load in the 2014 and 2015 surveys. Based on MCA findings, diverse categories of variables identified with HHVL were, did not know HIV status, not on ART, on multiple dosages of ARV, with less likely perceived risk of contracting HIV and having two or more lifetime sexual partners. CONCLUSION: The high proportion of individuals with HHVL suggests that the UNAIDS 95-95-95 goal of HIV viral suppression is less likely to be achieved. Based on performance and visualization evaluation, MCA was selected as the best and essential exploration tool for identifying and understanding categorical variables' significant associations and interactions to enhance individual epidemiological understanding of high HIV viral load. When faced with complex survey data and challenges of variables selection in research, exploratory data analysis with robust graphical visualization and reliability that can reveal divers' structures should be considered.

Viral suppression among pregnant adolescents and women living with HIV in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: a cross sectional study to assess progress towards UNAIDS indicators and Implications for HIV Epidemic Control.

BACKGROUND: South Africa has made significant progress in scaling up antiretroviral therapy (ART) to achieve the aspirational goal of HIV epidemic control. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of HIV, assess progress towards each of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) indicators and determine factors associated with achieving viral suppression among pregnant adolescents and women living with HIV in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. METHODS: Pregnant adolescents and women, 12 years and older seeking antenatal care at six primary health care clinics were enrolled in a cross-sectional study. Following written informed consent, structured questionnaires were administered, and finger-prick blood samples were collected for HIV antibody testing and viral load measurement. Viral suppression was defined as HIV viral load of < 400 copies per mL. RESULTS: Between Dec 2016 and March 2017, among the 546 enrolled participants, data for 545 were analysed. The overall HIV prevalence was 40.2% [95% Confidence Interval (CI) 36.1-44.3]. Age-stratified prevalence increased from 22.1% (95% CI, 15.9-30.0) in the 14-19 year age group to 63.9% (95% CI, 55.1-71.9) among women ≥ 30 years (Χ2 trend P < 0.0001). Of the HIV positive participants, 84.5% (95% CI, 79.0-88.8) knew their HIV positive status, 98.3% (95% CI 95.1-99.4) who knew their status were on ART, and of those on ART, 95.9% (95% CI 91.8-98.0) were virally suppressed. Among all HIV-positives 90.8% (95% CI, 86.3-94.0) had achieved viral suppression, whilst those in the 14-19 year age group were least likely to be virally suppressed at 82.8% (95% CI 65.5-92.4) compared to those in the older age groups. Married women compared to those unmarried were more likely to have achieved viral suppression (PRR) of 1.11 (95% CI 1.05-1.18), P < 0.001. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of HIV positive pregnant women achieving viral suppression was encouraging though far short of the target towards achieving epidemic control. Importantly, adolescent pregnant women were less likely to know their HIV status and to achieve viral suppression, underscoring the public health implications of sustained risk of HIV transmission. Thus, greater effort and strong social support are essential to improve HIV knowledge of status and care continuum towards the goal to achieving HIV epidemic control. To "fast-track" the response to achieve HIV epidemic control and end the AIDS epidemic, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) set ambitious HIV testing and treatment targets for people living with HIV. Meeting these targets through scaling up testing for HIV, initiating and sustaining antiretroviral therapy (ART) to maintain viral suppression provides both therapeutic and preventive benefits with the potential to reduce HIV transmission. Viral suppression among pregnant adolescents and women living with HIV is crucial for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV including onward transmission to sexual partners. As a public health approach, in South Africa all pregnant women are offered routine HIV testing and immediate initiation of lifelong ART irrespective of CD4 cell count. It is, therefore, important to ascertain progress towards reaching the targets. The proportion of HIV positive pregnant adolescents and women achieving viral suppression was encouraging though far short of the target towards achieving epidemic control. Importantly, pregnant adolescents were less likely to know their HIV status and to achieve viral suppression, underscoring the public health implications of sustained risk of HIV transmission. Thus, greater effort and strong social support are essential to improve HIV knowledge of status and care continuum towards the goal to achieving HIV epidemic control.

Prevalence and Risk Factors for HIV Infection Among Heterosexual Men Recruited from Socializing Venues in Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Young heterosexual men have low uptake of HIV prevention and treatment services and represent an important key population that may require novel strategies. We recruited 1271 heterosexual men, 12 years and older from socializing venues such as "shebeens", transport hubs, "spaza" shops, and community centers in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Participants completed a questionnaire and were tested for HIV serostatus. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) with exchangeable covariance structure estimated factors independently associated with prevalent HIV infection. Median age was 25 years [Interquartile range (IQR) 21-29]. HIV prevalence was 15.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 11.0-21.9] and increased significantly by age. Factors associated with higher odds of HIV infection were being 25 years and older [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 4.82, 95% CI 3.47-6.69; p < 0.001), not completing high school (aOR 1.60, 95% CI 1.39-1.85; p < 0.001), not using condoms at first sex (aOR 1.43, 95% CI 1.20-1.70; p < 0.001), consuming alcohol (aOR 1.63, 95% CI 1.15-2.31; p = 0.006) or substances (aOR 1.37, 95% CI 1.31-1.44; p < 0.001), and absence of medical circumcision (aOR 2.05, 95% CI 1.71-2.44; p < 0.001). Risk was lower among those testing for HIV in last 12 months (aOR 0.54, 95% CI 0.36-0.80; p = 0.002). Greater effort is needed to implement innovative programs within settings that are easily accessible and where heterosexual men are likely to be.

Spatiotemporal Variation and Predictors of Unsuppressed Viral Load among HIV-Positive Men and Women in Rural and Peri-Urban KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Unsuppressed HIV viral load is an important marker of sustained HIV transmission. We investigated the prevalence, predictors, and high-risk areas of unsuppressed HIV viral load among HIV-positive men and women. Unsuppressed HIV viral load was defined as viral load of ≥400 copies/mL. Data from the HIV Incidence District Surveillance System (HIPSS), a longitudinal study undertaken between June 2014 to June 2016 among men and women aged 15−49 years in rural and peri-urban KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, were analysed. A Bayesian geoadditive regression model which includes a spatial effect for a small enumeration area was applied using an integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) function while accounting for unobserved factors, non-linear effects of selected continuous variables, and spatial autocorrelation. The prevalence of unsuppressed HIV viral load was 46.1% [95% CI: 44.3−47.8]. Predictors of unsuppressed HIV viral load were incomplete high school education, being away from home for more than a month, alcohol consumption, no prior knowledge of HIV status, not ever tested for HIV, not on antiretroviral therapy (ART), on tuberculosis (TB) medication, having two or more sexual partners in the last 12 months, and having a CD4 cell count of <350 cells/µL. A positive non-linear effect of age, household size, and the number of lifetime HIV tests was identified. The higher-risk pattern of unsuppressed HIV viral load occurred in the northwest and northeast of the study area. Identifying predictors of unsuppressed viral load in a localized geographic area and information from spatial risk maps are important for targeted prevention and treatment programs to reduce the transmission of HIV.