Reconciling taxon senescence with the Red Queen's hypothesis.

In the fossil record, taxa exhibit a regular pattern of waxing and waning of occupancy, range or diversity between their origin and extinction. This pattern appears to contradict the law of constant extinction, which states that the probability of extinction in a given taxon is independent of that taxon's age. It is nevertheless well established for species, genera and higher taxa of terrestrial mammals, marine invertebrates, marine microorganisms, and recent Hawaiian clades of animals and plants. Here we show that the apparent contradiction between a stochastically constant extinction rate and the seemingly deterministic waxing and waning pattern of taxa disappears when we consider their peak of expansion rather than their final extinction. To a first approximation, we find that biotic drivers of evolution pertain mainly to the peak of taxon expansion, whereas abiotic drivers mainly apply to taxon extinction. The Red Queen's hypothesis, which emphasizes biotic interactions, was originally proposed as an explanation of the law of constant extinction. Much effort has since been devoted to determining how this hypothesis, emphasizing competition for resources, relates to the effects of environmental change. One proposed resolution is that biotic and abiotic processes operate at different scales. By focusing attention on taxon expansion rather than survival, we resolve an apparent contradiction between the seemingly deterministic waxing and waning patterns over time and the randomness of extinction that the Red Queen's hypothesis implies.

Climate-driven variation in mosquito density predicts the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue.

Dengue is a climate-sensitive mosquito-borne disease with increasing geographic extent and human incidence. Although the climate-epidemic association and outbreak risks have been assessed using both statistical and mathematical models, local mosquito population dynamics have not been incorporated in a unified predictive framework. Here, we use mosquito surveillance data from 2005 to 2015 in China to integrate a generalized additive model of mosquito dynamics with a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) compartmental model of viral transmission to establish a predictive model linking climate and seasonal dengue risk. The findings illustrate that spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue are predictable from the local vector dynamics, which in turn, can be predicted by climate conditions. On the basis of the similar epidemiology and transmission cycles, we believe that this integrated approach and the finer mosquito surveillance data provide a framework that can be extended to predict outbreak risk of other mosquito-borne diseases as well as project dengue risk maps for future climate scenarios.

Regime shift tipping point in hare population collapse associated with climatic and agricultural change during the very early 20th century.

Animal populations at northern latitudes may have cyclical dynamics that are degraded by climate change leading to trophic cascade. Hare populations at more southerly latitudes are characterized by dramatic declines in abundance associated with agricultural intensification. We focus on the impact of historical climatic and agricultural change on a mid-latitude population of mountain hares, Lepus timidus hibernicus. Using game bag records from multiple sites throughout Ireland, the hare population index exhibited a distinct regime shift. Contrary to expectations, there was a dynamical structure typical of northern latitude hare populations from 1853 to 1908, during which numbers were stable but cyclic with a periodicity of 8 years. This regime was replaced by dynamics more typical of southern latitude hare populations from 1909 to 1970, in which cycles were lost and numbers declined dramatically. Destabilization of the autumn North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) led to the collapse of similar cycles in the hare population, coincident with the onset of agricultural intensification (a shift from small-to-large farms) in the first half of the 20th century. Similar, but more recent regime shifts have been observed in Arctic ecosystems and attributed to anthropogenic climate change. The present study suggests such shifts may have occurred at lower latitudes more than a century ago during the very early 20th century. It seems likely that similar tipping points in the population collapse of other farmland species may have occurred similarly early but went undocumented. As northern systems are increasingly impacted by climate change and probable expansion of agriculture, the interaction of these processes is likely to disrupt the pulsed flow of resources from cyclic populations impacting ecosystem function.

Ecological and evolutionary dynamics of interconnectedness and modularity.

In this contribution, we develop a theoretical framework for linking microprocesses (i.e., population dynamics and evolution through natural selection) with macrophenomena (such as interconnectedness and modularity within an ecological system). This is achieved by developing a measure of interconnectedness for population distributions defined on a trait space (generalizing the notion of modularity on graphs), in combination with an evolution equation for the population distribution. With this contribution, we provide a platform for understanding under what environmental, ecological, and evolutionary conditions ecosystems evolve toward being more or less modular. A major contribution of this work is that we are able to decompose the overall driver of changes at the macro level (such as interconnectedness) into three components: (i) ecologically driven change, (ii) evolutionarily driven change, and (iii) environmentally driven change.

Genomic blueprint of a relapsing fever pathogen in 15th century Scandinavia.

Louse-borne relapsing fever (LBRF) is known to have killed millions of people over the course of European history and remains a major cause of mortality in parts of the world. Its pathogen, Borrelia recurrentis, shares a common vector with global killers such as typhus and plague and is known for its involvement in devastating historical epidemics such as the Irish potato famine. Here, we describe a European and historical genome of Brecurrentis, recovered from a 15th century skeleton from Oslo. Our distinct European lineage has a discrete genomic makeup, displaying an ancestral oppA-1 gene and gene loss in antigenic variation sites. Our results illustrate the potential of ancient DNA research to elucidate dynamics of reductive evolution in a specialized human pathogen and to uncover aspects of human health usually invisible to the archaeological record.

Integrative approach using Yersinia pestis genomes to revisit the historical landscape of plague during the Medieval Period.

Over the last few years, genomic studies on Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of all known plague epidemics, have considerably increased in numbers, spanning a period of about 5,000 y. Nonetheless, questions concerning historical reservoirs and routes of transmission remain open. Here, we present and describe five genomes from the second half of the 14th century and reconstruct the evolutionary history of Y. pestis by reanalyzing previously published genomes and by building a comprehensive phylogeny focused on strains attributed to the Second Plague Pandemic (14th to 18th century). Corroborated by historical and ecological evidence, the presented phylogeny, which includes our Y. pestis genomes, could support the hypothesis of an entry of plague into Western European ports through distinct waves of introduction during the Medieval Period, possibly by means of fur trade routes, as well as the recirculation of plague within the human population via trade routes and human movement.

Hydrology influences breeding time in the white-throated dipper.

BACKGROUND: Earlier breeding is one of the strongest responses to global change in birds and is a key factor determining reproductive success. In most studies of climate effects, the focus has been on large-scale environmental indices or temperature averaged over large geographical areas, neglecting that animals are affected by the local conditions in their home ranges. In riverine ecosystems, climate change is altering the flow regime, in addition to changes resulting from the increasing demand for renewable and clean hydropower. Together with increasing temperatures, this can lead to shifts in the time window available for successful breeding of birds associated with the riverine habitat. Here, we investigated specifically how the environmental conditions at the territory level influence timing of breeding in a passerine bird with an aquatic lifestyle, the white-throated dipper Cinclus cinclus. We relate daily river discharge and other important hydrological parameters, to a long-term dataset of breeding phenology (1978-2015) in a natural river system. RESULTS: Dippers bred earlier when winter river discharge and groundwater levels in the weeks prior to breeding were high, and when there was little snow in the catchment area. Breeding was also earlier at lower altitudes, although the effect dramatically declined over the period. This suggests that territories at higher altitudes had more open water in winter later in the study period, which permitted early breeding also here. Unexpectedly, the largest effect inducing earlier breeding time was territory river discharge during the winter months and not immediately prior to breeding. The territory river discharge also increased during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: The observed earlier breeding can thus be interpreted as a response to climate change. Measuring environmental variation at the scale of the territory thus provides detailed information about the interactions between organisms and the abiotic environment.

Interaction between top-down and bottom-up control in marine food webs.

Climate change and resource exploitation have been shown to modify the importance of bottom-up and top-down forces in ecosystems. However, the resulting pattern of trophic control in complex food webs is an emergent property of the system and thus unintuitive. We develop a statistical nondeterministic model, capable of modeling complex patterns of trophic control for the heavily impacted North Sea ecosystem. The model is driven solely by fishing mortality and climatic variables and based on time-series data covering >40 y for six plankton and eight fish groups along with one bird group (>20 y). Simulations show the outstanding importance of top-down exploitation pressure for the dynamics of fish populations. Whereas fishing effects on predators indirectly altered plankton abundance, bottom-up climatic processes dominate plankton dynamics. Importantly, we show planktivorous fish to have a central role in the North Sea food web initiating complex cascading effects across and between trophic levels. Our linked model integrates bottom-up and top-down effects and is able to simulate complex long-term changes in ecosystem components under a combination of stressor scenarios. Our results suggest that in marine ecosystems, pathways for bottom-up and top-down forces are not necessarily mutually exclusive and together can lead to the emergence of complex patterns of control.

Scale-dependent climatic drivers of human epidemics in ancient China.

A wide range of climate change-induced effects have been implicated in the prevalence of infectious diseases. Disentangling causes and consequences, however, remains particularly challenging at historical time scales, for which the quality and quantity of most of the available natural proxy archives and written documentary sources often decline. Here, we reconstruct the spatiotemporal occurrence patterns of human epidemics for large parts of China and most of the last two millennia. Cold and dry climate conditions indirectly increased the prevalence of epidemics through the influences of locusts and famines. Our results further reveal that low-frequency, long-term temperature trends mainly contributed to negative associations with epidemics, while positive associations of epidemics with droughts, floods, locusts, and famines mainly coincided with both higher and lower frequency temperature variations. Nevertheless, unstable relationships between human epidemics and temperature changes were observed on relatively smaller time scales. Our study suggests that an intertwined, direct, and indirect array of biological, ecological, and societal responses to different aspects of past climatic changes strongly depended on the frequency domain and study period chosen.

Oogenesis and reproductive investment of Atlantic herring are functions of not only present but long-ago environmental influences as well.

Following general life history theory, immediate reproductive investment (egg mass × fecundity/body mass) in oviparous teleosts is a consequence of both present and past environmental influences. This clarification questions the frequent use of season-independent (general) fecundity formulas in marine fish recruitment studies based on body metrics only. Here we test the underlying assumption of no lag effect on gametogenesis in the planktivorous, determinate-fecundity Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) displaying large plasticity in egg mass and fecundity, examining Norwegian summer-autumn spawning herring (NASH), North Sea autumn-spawning herring (NSAH), and Norwegian spring-spawning herring (NSSH). No prior reproductive information existed for NASH. Compared with the 1960s, recent reproductive investment had dropped markedly, especially for NSAH, likely reflecting long-term changes in zooplankton biography and productivity. As egg mass was characteristically small for autumn spawners, although large for spring spawners (cf. different larval feeding conditions), fecundity was the most dynamic factor within reproductive investment. For the data-rich NSSH, we showed evidence that transient, major declines in zooplankton abundance resulted in low fecundity over several subsequent seasons, even if Fulton's condition factor (K) turned high. Temporal trends in Kslope (K on total length) were, however, informative. These results clarify that fecundity is defined by (i) dynamics of primary (standing stock) oocytes and (ii) down-regulation of secondary oocytes, both processes intimately linked to environmental conditions but operating at different timescales. Thus, general fecundity formulas typically understate interannual variability in actual fecundity. We therefore argue for the use of segmented fecundity formulas linked to dedicated monitoring programs.

Primates Can Be a Rallying Symbol to Promote Tropical Forest Restoration.

With 60% of all primate species now threatened with extinction and many species only persisting in small populations in forest fragments, conservation action is urgently needed. But what type of action? Here we argue that restoration of primate habitat will be an essential component of strategies aimed at conserving primates and preventing the extinctions that may occur before the end of the century and propose that primates can act as flagship species for restoration efforts. To do this we gathered a team of academics from around the world with experience in restoration so that we could provide examples of why primate restoration ecology is needed, outline how primates can act as flagship species for restoration efforts of tropical forest, review what little is known about how primate populations respond to restoration efforts, and make specific recommendations of the next steps needed to make restoration of primate populations successful. We set four priorities: (1) academics must effectively communicate both the value of primates and the need for restoration; (2) more research is needed on how primates contribute to forest restoration; (3) more effort must be put into Masters and PhD level training for tropical country nationals; and finally (4) more emphasis is needed to monitor the responses of regenerating forest and primate populations where restoration efforts are initiated. We are optimistic that populations of many threatened species can recover, and extinctions can be prevented, but only if concerted large-scale efforts are made soon and if these efforts include primate habitat restoration.

Asymmetric ecological conditions favor Red-Queen type of continued evolution over stasis.

Four decades ago, Leigh Van Valen presented the Red Queen's hypothesis to account for evolution of species within a multispecies ecological community [Van Valen L (1973) Evol Theory 1(1):1-30]. The overall conclusion of Van Valen's analysis was that evolution would continue even in the absence of abiotic perturbations. Stenseth and Maynard Smith presented in 1984 [Stenseth NC, Maynard Smith J (1984) Evolution 38(4):870-880] a model for the Red Queen's hypothesis showing that both Red-Queen type of continuous evolution and stasis could result from a model with biotically driven evolution. However, although that contribution demonstrated that both evolutionary outcomes were possible, it did not identify which ecological conditions would lead to each of these evolutionary outcomes. Here, we provide, using a simple, yet general population-biologically founded eco-evolutionary model, such analytically derived conditions: Stasis will predominantly emerge whenever the ecological system contains only symmetric ecological interactions, whereas both Red-Queen and stasis type of evolution may result if the ecological interactions are asymmetrical, and more likely so with increasing degree of asymmetry in the ecological system (i.e., the more trophic interactions, host-pathogen interactions, and the like there are [i.e., +/- type of ecological interactions as well as asymmetric competitive (-/-) and mutualistic (+/+) ecological interactions]). In the special case of no between-generational genetic variance, our results also predict dynamics within these types of purely ecological systems.

Disentangling the mechanisms behind climate effects on zooplankton.

Understanding how climate influences ecosystems is complicated by the many correlated and interrelated impacting factors. Here we quantify climate effects on Calanus finmarchicus in the northeastern Norwegian Sea and southwestern Barents Sea. By combining oceanographic drift models and statistical analyses of field data from 1959 to 1993 and investigating effects across trophic levels, we are able to elucidate pathways by which climate influences zooplankton. The results show that both chlorophyll biomass in spring and C. finmarchicus biomass in summer relate positively to a combination of shallow mixed layer depth and increased wind in spring, suggesting that C. finmarchicus biomass in summer is influenced by bottom-up effects of food availability. Furthermore, spatially resolved C. finmarchicus biomass in summer is linked to favorable transport from warmer, core areas to the south. However, increased mean temperature in spring does not lead to increased C. finmarchicus biomass in summer. Rather, spring biomass is generally higher, but population growth from spring to summer is lower, after a warm compared with a cold spring. Our study illustrates how improved understanding of climate effects can be obtained when different datasets and different methods are combined in a unified approach.

Roles of density-dependent growth and life history evolution in accounting for fisheries-induced trait changes.

The relative roles of density dependence and life history evolution in contributing to rapid fisheries-induced trait changes remain debated. In the 1930s, northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua), currently the world's largest cod stock, experienced a shift from a traditional spawning-ground fishery to an industrial trawl fishery with elevated exploitation in the stock's feeding grounds. Since then, age and length at maturation have declined dramatically, a trend paralleled in other exploited stocks worldwide. These trends can be explained by demographic truncation of the population's age structure, phenotypic plasticity in maturation arising through density-dependent growth, fisheries-induced evolution favoring faster-growing or earlier-maturing fish, or a combination of these processes. Here, we use a multitrait eco-evolutionary model to assess the capacity of these processes to reproduce 74 y of historical data on age and length at maturation in northeast Arctic cod, while mimicking the stock's historical harvesting regime. Our results show that model predictions critically depend on the assumed density dependence of growth: when this is weak, life history evolution might be necessary to prevent stock collapse, whereas when a stronger density dependence estimated from recent data is used, the role of evolution in explaining fisheries-induced trait changes is diminished. Our integrative analysis of density-dependent growth, multitrait evolution, and stock-specific time series data underscores the importance of jointly considering evolutionary and ecological processes, enabling a more comprehensive perspective on empirically observed stock dynamics than previous studies could provide.

Macroevolutionary consequences of sexual conflict.

Intralocus sexual conflicts arise whenever the fitness optima for a trait expressed in both males and females differ between the sexes and shared genetic architecture constrains the sexes from evolving independently towards their respective optima. Such sexual conflicts are commonplace in nature, yet their long-term evolutionary consequences remain unexplored. Using a Bayesian phylogenetic comparative framework, we studied the macroevolutionary dynamics of intersexual trait integration in stalk-eyed flies (Diopsidae) spanning a time frame of more than 25 Myr. We report that increased intensity of sexual selection on male eyestalks is associated with reduced intersexual eyestalk integration, as well as sex-specific rates of eyestalk evolution. Despite this, lineages where males have been under strong sexual selection for millions of years still exhibit high levels of intersexual trait integration. This low level of decoupling between the sexes may indicate that exaggerated female eyestalks are in fact adaptive-or alternatively, that there are strong constraints on reducing trait integration between the sexes. Future work should seek to clarify the relative roles of constraints and selection in contributing to the varying levels of intersexual trait integration in stalk-eyed flies, and in this way clarify whether sexual conflicts can act as constraints on adaptive evolution even on macroevolutionary time scales.

Cascading effects of mass mortality events in Arctic marine communities.

Mass mortality events caused by pulse anthropogenic or environmental perturbations (e.g., extreme weather, toxic spills or epizootics) severely reduce the abundance of a population in a short time. The frequency and impact of these events are likely to increase across the globe. Studies on how such events may affect ecological communities of interacting species are scarce. By combining a multispecies Gompertz model with a Bayesian state-space framework, we quantify community-level effects of a mass mortality event in a single species. We present a case study on a community of fish and zooplankton in the Barents Sea to illustrate how a mass mortality event of different intensities affecting the lower trophic level (krill) may propagate to higher trophic levels (capelin and cod). This approach is especially valuable for assessing community-level effects of potential anthropogenic-driven mass mortality events, owing to the ability to account for uncertainty in the assessed impact due to uncertainty about the ecological dynamics. We hence quantify how the assessed impact of a mass mortality event depends on the degree of precaution considered. We suggest that this approach can be useful for assessing the possible detrimental outcomes of toxic spills, for example oil spills, in relatively simple communities such as often found in the Arctic, a region under increasing influence of human activities due to increased land and sea use.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations.

Reliability of flipper-banded penguins as indicators of climate change.

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted an urgent need to assess the responses of marine ecosystems to climate change. Because they lie in a high-latitude region, the Southern Ocean ecosystems are expected to be strongly affected by global warming. Using top predators of this highly productive ocean (such as penguins) as integrative indicators may help us assess the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems. Yet most available information on penguin population dynamics is based on the controversial use of flipper banding. Although some reports have found the effects of flipper bands to be deleterious, some short-term (one-year) studies have concluded otherwise, resulting in the continuation of extensive banding schemes and the use of data sets thus collected to predict climate impact on natural populations. Here we show that banding of free-ranging king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) impairs both survival and reproduction, ultimately affecting population growth rate. Over the course of a 10-year longitudinal study, banded birds produced 41% [corrected] fewer chicks and had a survival rate 16 percentage points [corrected] lower than non-banded birds, demonstrating a massive long-term impact of banding and thus refuting the assumption that birds will ultimately adapt to being banded. Indeed, banded birds still arrived later for breeding at the study site and had longer foraging trips even after 10 years. One of our major findings is that responses of flipper-banded penguins to climate variability (that is, changes in sea surface temperature and in the Southern Oscillation index) differ from those of non-banded birds. We show that only long-term investigations may allow an evaluation of the impact of flipper bands and that every major life-history trait can be affected, calling into question the banding schemes still going on. In addition, our understanding of the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems based on flipper-band data should be reconsidered.

Ethnolinguistic structuring of sorghum genetic diversity in Africa and the role of local seed systems.

Sorghum is a drought-tolerant crop with a vital role in the livelihoods of millions of people in marginal areas. We examined genetic structure in this diverse crop in Africa. On the continent-wide scale, we identified three major sorghum populations (Central, Southern, and Northern) that are associated with the distribution of ethnolinguistic groups on the continent. The codistribution of the Central sorghum population and the Nilo-Saharan language family supports a proposed hypothesis about a close and causal relationship between the distribution of sorghum and languages in the region between the Chari and the Nile rivers. The Southern sorghum population is associated with the Bantu languages of the Niger-Congo language family, in agreement with the farming-language codispersal hypothesis as it has been related to the Bantu expansion. The Northern sorghum population is distributed across early Niger-Congo and Afro-Asiatic language family areas with dry agroclimatic conditions. At a finer geographic scale, the genetic substructure within the Central sorghum population is associated with language-group expansions within the Nilo-Saharan language family. A case study of the seed system of the Pari people, a Western-Nilotic ethnolinguistic group, provides a window into the social and cultural factors involved in generating and maintaining the continent-wide diversity patterns. The age-grade system, a cultural institution important for the expansive success of this ethnolinguistic group in the past, plays a central role in the management of sorghum landraces and continues to underpin the resilience of their traditional seed system.