The phenomenon of thunderstorm asthma in Bavaria, Southern Germany: a statistical approach.

Higher incidences of asthma during thunderstorms can pose a serious health risk. In this study, we estimate the thunderstorm asthma risk using statistical methods, with special focus on Bavaria, Southern Germany. In this approach, a dataset of asthma-related emergency cases for the study region is combined with meteorological variables and aeroallergen data to identify statistical relationships between the occurrence of asthma (predictand) and different environmental parameters (set of predictors). On the one hand, the results provide evidence for a weak but significant relationship between atmospheric stability indices and asthma emergencies in the region, but also show that currently thunderstorm asthma is not a major concern in Bavaria due to overall low incidences. As thunderstorm asthma can have severe consequences for allergic patients, the presented approach can be important for the development of emergency strategies in regions affected by thunderstorm asthma and under present and future climate change conditions.

New Insights into Weather and Stroke: Influences of Specific Air Masses and Temperature Changes on Stroke Incidence.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Meteorological factors seem to influence stroke incidence, however, the complex association between weather and stroke remains unclear. Possible explanations from the literature do not categorize into subdivisions of ischemic strokes, only have small patient numbers, or refer to a selection of isolated weather elements without investigating weather changes and more. METHOD: In this exploratory trial, almost 18,000 stroke cases from a single stroke center in Southern Germany were analyzed from 2006 to 2015 and classified into the main subgroups of strokes and subdivisions of ischemic stroke etiologies applying the Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment classification. For each stroke event, the air mass classification was determined from a subset of 7 air mass categories. Relative excess morbidities were derived for the 7 different air mass categories, taking into account the day of the event and up to 2 and 5 days preceding the stroke event. RESULTS: Statistically significant findings (α ≤0.1) reveal that dry tropical air masses were associated with a lower/higher risk for hemorrhagic (HEM)/macroangiopathic strokes (MAS), respectively. Dry polar air masses were associated with a higher risk for intracerebral bleedings and lower risk for ischemic stroke subtypes. Moist air masses were associated with a reduced incidence of MAS. A strong temperature increase 5 days prior to the event was associated with a lower risk of HEM strokes. Temperature increases were associated with lower risks for MAS and cardio-embolic strokes. Significant temperature decreases were associated with a higher risk of MAS. CONCLUSIONS: Temperature effects were dependent on both air masses and temperature changes within 5 days prior to the event and were associated with statistically relevant changes in stroke incidence. Decisive factors such as etiology, age, sex, and risk factors were also taken into account.