ELM-the Eukaryotic Linear Motif resource-2024 update.

Short Linear Motifs (SLiMs) are the smallest structural and functional components of modular eukaryotic proteins. They are also the most abundant, especially when considering post-translational modifications. As well as being found throughout the cell as part of regulatory processes, SLiMs are extensively mimicked by intracellular pathogens. At the heart of the Eukaryotic Linear Motif (ELM) Resource is a representative (not comprehensive) database. The ELM entries are created by a growing community of skilled annotators and provide an introduction to linear motif functionality for biomedical researchers. The 2024 ELM update includes 346 novel motif instances in areas ranging from innate immunity to both protein and RNA degradation systems. In total, 39 classes of newly annotated motifs have been added, and another 17 existing entries have been updated in the database. The 2024 ELM release now includes 356 motif classes incorporating 4283 individual motif instances manually curated from 4274 scientific publications and including >700 links to experimentally determined 3D structures. In a recent development, the InterPro protein module resource now also includes ELM data. ELM is available at: http://elm.eu.org.

Genome-wide CRISPR screens identify novel regulators of wild-type and mutant p53 stability.

Tumor suppressor p53 (TP53) is frequently mutated in cancer, often resulting not only in loss of its tumor-suppressive function but also acquisition of dominant-negative and even oncogenic gain-of-function traits. While wild-type p53 levels are tightly regulated, mutants are typically stabilized in tumors, which is crucial for their oncogenic properties. Here, we systematically profiled the factors that regulate protein stability of wild-type and mutant p53 using marker-based genome-wide CRISPR screens. Most regulators of wild-type p53 also regulate p53 mutants, except for p53 R337H regulators, which are largely private to this mutant. Mechanistically, FBXO42 emerged as a positive regulator for a subset of p53 mutants, working with CCDC6 to control USP28-mediated mutant p53 stabilization. Additionally, C16orf72/HAPSTR1 negatively regulates both wild-type p53 and all tested mutants. C16orf72/HAPSTR1 is commonly amplified in breast cancer, and its overexpression reduces p53 levels in mouse mammary epithelium leading to accelerated breast cancer. This study offers a network perspective on p53 stability regulation, potentially guiding strategies to reinforce wild-type p53 or target mutant p53 in cancer.

Intravenous Golimumab in Children With Polyarticular-Course Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis: Long-Term Extension of an Open-Label, Phase III Study.

OBJECTIVE: To report pharmacokinetics (PK), immunogenicity, clinical effect, and safety of intravenous (IV) golimumab in children with active polyarticular-course juvenile idiopathic arthritis (pcJIA) who participated in A Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics, Efficacy and Safety of Intravenous Golimumab in Pediatric Participants With Active Polyarticular Course Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Despite Methotrexate Therapy (GO-VIVA)'s open-label, long-term extension (LTE) through week 252. METHODS: GO-VIVA participants who continued IV golimumab (80 mg/m2 every 8 weeks) after week 52 were included. PK and safety were assessed through week 244 (last dose) and week 252, respectively, and clinical response through week 116. Clinical outcomes included JIA-American College of Rheumatology (ACR) responses and clinical Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score in 10 joints (cJADAS10). Binary outcomes used nonresponder imputation, and other descriptive analyses used observed data. RESULTS: Of 112/127 (88.2%) participants entering the LTE, 69 completed the week 252 visit. Median steady-state trough golimumab concentrations were generally maintained from week 52 through week 244 (range 0.3-0.6 µg/mL). Antigolimumab antibody rates were consistent through week 52 (39.2% [49/125]) and week 244 (44.8% [56/125]). Week 52 JIA-ACR 30/50/70/90 response rates (75.6% [96/127], 74% [94/127], 65.4% [83/127], and 48.8% [62/127], respectively) were generally maintained through week 116 (72.4% [92/127], 71.7% [91/127], 63.8% [81/127], and 50.4% [64/127], respectively), when the median cJADAS10 was 1.6 and 56.7% (72/127) of participants achieved cJADAS10 ≤ 5 (minimal disease activity). Rates (per 100 patient-years) of serious adverse events and serious infections through week 252 were 7.7 and 3.9, respectively. CONCLUSION: GO-VIVA LTE participants experienced adequate PK exposure and stable safety and immunogenicity. The majority of participants experienced no more than minimal residual disease activity. Data suggest IV golimumab treatment provided durable clinical response through week 116, with an acceptable risk-benefit profile.

Analysis of the circumstances associated with death and predictors of mortality in Spanish adults with Down syndrome, 1997-2014.

OBJECTIVES: Characterise the circumstances associated with death during admission of adults with Down syndrome (DS) and to identify predictors of mortality. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Observational study based on data on all emergent admissions of adults with DS to hospitals of the Spanish National Health System between 1997 and 2014. We analysed epidemiological and clinical variables. RESULTS: We analysed admissions of 11,594 adults with DS, mean age 47 years. 1715 patients died (15%), being the highest mortality (35%) in individuals aged 50-59. A past medical history of cerebrovascular disease (aOR 2.95 [2.30-3.77]) or cancer (aOR 2.79 [2.07-3.75]), gross aspiration's admission (aOR 2.59 [2.20-3.04]), immobility (aOR 2.31 [1.46-3-62]), and readmission within 30 days (aOR 2.43 [2.06-2.86]) were identified as predictors of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Adults with DS have a high in-hospital mortality rate. The main predictors of death were cerebrovascular disease, cancer, early readmission, and conditions commonly associated with advanced dementia.

Multivariate reference and tolerance regions based on conditional transformation models: Application to glycemic markers.

The reference interval is the most widely used medical decision-making, constituting a central tool in determining whether an individual is healthy or not. When the results of several continuous diagnostic tests are available for the same patient, their clinical interpretation is more reliable if a multivariate reference region (MVR) is available rather than multiple univariate reference intervals. MVRs, defined as regions containing 95% of the results of healthy subjects, extend the concept of the reference interval to the multivariate setting. However, they are rarely used in clinical practice owing to difficulties associated with their interpretability and the restrictions inherent to the assumption of a Gaussian distribution. Further statistical research is thus needed to make MVRs more applicable and easier for physicians to interpret. Since the joint distribution of diagnostic test results may well change with patient characteristics independent of disease status, MVRs adjusted for covariates are desirable. The present work introduces a novel formulation for MVRs based on multivariate conditional transformation models (MCTMs). Additionally, we take into account the estimation uncertainty of such MVRs by means of tolerance regions. These conditional MVRs imply no parametric restriction on the response, and potentially nonlinear continuous covariate effects can be estimated. MCTMs allow the estimation of the effects of covariates on the joint distribution of multivariate response variables and on these variables' marginal distributions, via the use of most likely transformation estimation. Our contributions proved reliable when tested with simulated data and for a real data application with two glycemic markers.

What brings adults with Down syndrome to the hospital? A retrospective review of a Spanish cohort between 1997 and 2014.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of adult patients with Down syndrome admitted to Spanish hospitals between 1997 and 2014. Secondary goals were to study trend changes over time, and to analyse differences between patients admitted to medical and surgical departments. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Retrospective observational study on data collected from the Minimum Basic Dataset (MBDS, Conjunto Mínimo Básico de Datos [CMBD]) of admissions of adults with Down syndrome to hospitals belonging to the Spanish National Health System from 1 January 1997 through 31 December 2014. We analysed epidemiological and clinical variables. RESULTS: We analysed 28,716 admissions of 16,874 adult patients with Down syndrome. Men accounted for 58.2% of the sample, and the mean age on admission was 41 ± 13 years, with an 11-year increase in mean age during the study period. Admissions among persons with Down syndrome increased by 5% during the study period, with a noticeable rise in admissions of older adults and to medical departments. Almost one-third of patients (31.8%) were admitted more than once. Age-adjusted mortality was 15.7%. The most common comorbid conditions were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (25%), hypothyroidism (18.6%), and epilepsy (14.3%). The departments with the highest numbers of admissions were internal medicine (26.3%), pulmonary medicine (6.9%), and general surgery (5.25%). CONCLUSION: Hospital admissions among Spanish adults with Down syndrome have increased in recent decades, especially in older patients. We identified substantial differences between patients admitted to medical and surgical departments.

Modeling conditional reference regions: Application to glycemic markers.

Many clinical decisions are taken based on the results of continuous diagnostic tests. Usually, only the results of one single test is taken into consideration, the interpretation of which requires a reference range for the healthy population. However, the use of two different tests, can be necessary in the diagnosis of certain diseases. This obliges a bivariate reference region be available for their interpretation. It should also be remembered that reference regions may depend on patient variables (eg, age and sex) independent of the suspected disease. However, few proposals have been made regarding the statistical modeling of such reference regions, and those put forward have always assumed a Gaussian distribution, which can be rather restrictive. The present work describes a new statistical method that allows such reference regions to be estimated with no insistence on the results being normally distributed. The proposed method is based on a bivariate location-scale model that provides probabilistic regions covering a specific percentage of the bivariate data, dependent on certain covariates. The reference region is estimated nonparametrically and the nonlinear effects of continuous covariates via polynomial kernel smoothers in additive models. The bivariate model is estimated using a backfitting algorithm, and the optimal smoothing parameters of the kernel smoothers selected by cross-validation. The model performed satisfactorily in simulation studies under the assumption of non-Gaussian conditions. Finally, the proposed methodology was found to be useful in estimating a reference region for two continuous diagnostic tests for diabetes (fasting plasma glucose and glycated hemoglobin), taking into account the age of the patient.

Demographic, clinical, and functional determinants of antithrombotic treatment in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: This study assessed the sociodemographic, functional, and clinical determinants of antithrombotic treatment in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) attended in the internal medicine setting. METHODS: A multicenter, cross-sectional study was conducted in NVAF patients who attended internal medicine departments for either a routine visit (outpatients) or hospitalization (inpatients). RESULTS: A total of 961 patients were evaluated. Their antithrombotic management included: no treatment (4.7%), vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) (59.6%), direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) (21.6%), antiplatelets (6.6%), and antiplatelets plus anticoagulants (7.5%). Permanent NVAF and congestive heart failure were associated with preferential use of oral anticoagulation over antiplatelets, while intermediate-to high-mortality risk according to the PROFUND index was associated with a higher likelihood of using antiplatelet therapy instead of oral anticoagulation. Longer disease duration and institutionalization were identified as determinants of VKA use over DOACs. Female gender, higher education, and having suffered a stroke determined a preferential use of DOACs. CONCLUSIONS: This real-world study showed that most elderly NVAF patients received oral anticoagulation, mainly VKAs, while DOACs remained underused. Antiplatelets were still offered to a proportion of patients. Longer duration of NVAF and institutionalization were identified as determinants of VKA use over DOACs. A poor prognosis according to the PROFUND index was identified as a factor preventing the use of oral anticoagulation.

Volumetric BMD by 3D-DXA and Trabecular Bone Score in Adults With Down Syndrome.

Adults with Down syndrome (DS) have lower bone mineral density (BMD) than the general population. The objective of our study was to describe bone mineral status in DS population through volumetric BMD (vBMD) and trabecular bone score (TBS). Retrospective study of 297 subjects recruited from the Adult DS Outpatient Clinic of a tertiary care hospital in Spain, who underwent a bone densitometry for clinical purposes between January 2010 and June 2015. vBMD determination and TBS analysis on conventional DXA (Hologic QDR 4500) densitometer were performed in this cohort. The mean (±SD) age of our population was 34.3 (±10.9) years; 51% were women. Trabecular vBMD at total hip and femoral neck was lower in males than in females (191.7 ± 48.4 mg/cm3 vs 206.9 ± 46.7 mg/cm3, p = 0.007, and 250.5 ± 70.1 mg/cm3 vs 275.7 ± 66.2 mg/cm3, p = 0.002, respectively). Trabecular and cortical vBMD decreased with age, but age decline in trabecular vBMD was more pronounced in males. Likewise, lumbar TBS declined with age being normal in 63%, low in 29% and very low in 8% of subjects with DS, without differences between sexes. TBS showed a positive correlation (r = 0.37; p < 0.001, Kappa index= 0.275) with conventional DXA lumbar Z-score. vBMD at the hip showed lower values in DS subjects than in the general population, especially in males. Moreover, TBS was also lower at lumbar spine. Therefore, both assessments could be used as complementary tools to areal BMD (Z-score) to assess bone status in DS subjects.

Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on perinatal mental health (Riseup-PPD-COVID-19): protocol for an international prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Corona Virus Disease 19 (COVID-19) is a new pandemic, declared a public health emergency by the World Health Organization, which could have negative consequences for pregnant and postpartum women. The scarce evidence published to date suggests that perinatal mental health has deteriorated since the COVID-19 outbreak. However, the few studies published so far have some limitations, such as a cross-sectional design and the omission of important factors for the understanding of perinatal mental health, including governmental restriction measures and healthcare practices implemented at the maternity hospitals. Within the Riseup-PPD COST Action, a study is underway to assess the impact of COVID-19 in perinatal mental health. The primary objectives are to (1) evaluate changes in perinatal mental health outcomes; and (2) determine the risk and protective factors for perinatal mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, we will compare the results between the countries participating in the study. METHODS: This is an international prospective cohort study, with a baseline and three follow-up assessments over a six-month period. It is being carried out in 11 European countries (Albania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Greece, Israel, Malta, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, and the United Kingdom), Argentina, Brazil and Chile. The sample consists of adult pregnant and postpartum women (with infants up to 6 months of age). The assessment includes measures on COVID-19 epidemiology and public health measures (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker dataset), Coronavirus Perinatal Experiences (COPE questionnaires), psychological distress (BSI-18), depression (EPDS), anxiety (GAD-7) and post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSD checklist for DSM-V). DISCUSSION: This study will provide important information for understanding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on perinatal mental health and well-being, including the identification of potential risk and protective factors by implementing predictive models using machine learning techniques. The findings will help policymakers develop suitable guidelines and prevention strategies for perinatal mental health and contribute to designing tailored mental health interventions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04595123 .

Contingency plan of the Clinical Management Unit for Psychiatry and Mental Health (CMUPMH) of the Infanta Cristina University Hospital (ICUH) for the COVID-19 pandemic.

In recent decades, pandemics and health catastrophes have caused disorders in part of the population with quite diverse consequences (SARS in 2002-2003, Ebola in 2014- 2015) showing a tendency to create generalised fear in the population, stigmatisation of the sufferers and psychological effects in health-care staff themselves.

A Mutation in the UL24 Gene Abolishes Expression of the Newly Identified UL24.5 Protein of Herpes Simplex Virus 1 and Leads to an Increase in Pathogenicity in Mice.

Herpes simplex virus 1 (HSV-1) infects the host via epithelia and establishes latency in sensory neurons. The UL24 gene is conserved throughout the Herpesviridae family, and the UL24 protein is important for efficient viral replication and pathogenesis. Multiple transcripts are expressed from the UL24 gene. The presence of a transcription initiation site inside the open reading frame of UL24 and an ATG start codon in the same open reading frame led us to suspect that another protein was expressed from the UL24 locus. To test our hypothesis, we constructed a recombinant virus that expresses a hemagglutinin tag at the C terminus of UL24. Western blot analysis revealed the expression of an 18-kDa protein that is not a degradation product of the full-length UL24, which we refer to as UL24.5. Ectopically expressed UL24.5 did not induce the dispersal of nucleolar proteins, as seen for UL24. In order to characterize the role of UL24.5, we constructed a mutant virus encoding a substitution of the predicted initiation methionine to a valine. This substitution eliminated the expression of the 18-kDa polypeptide. Unlike the UL24-null mutant (UL24X), which exhibits reduced viral yields, the UL24.5-null mutant exhibited the same replication phenotype in cell culture as the parental strain. However, in a murine ocular infection model, we observed an increase in the incidence of neurological disorders with the UL24.5 mutant. Alignment of amino acid sequences for various herpesviruses revealed that the initiation site of UL24.5 is conserved among HSV-1 strains and is present in many herpesviruses.IMPORTANCE We discovered a new HSV-1 protein, UL24.5, which corresponds to the C-terminal portion of UL24. In contrast to the replication defects observed with HSV-1 strains that do not express full-length UL24, the absence of UL24.5 did not affect viral replication in cell culture. Moreover, in mice, the absence of UL24.5 did not affect viral titers in epithelia or trigeminal ganglia during acute infection; however, it was associated with a prolonged persistence of signs of inflammation. Strikingly, the absence of UL24.5 also led to an increase in the incidence of severe neurological impairment compared to results for wild-type control viruses. This increase in pathogenicity is in stark contrast to the reduction in clinical signs associated with the absence of full-length UL24. Bioinformatic analyses suggest that UL24.5 is conserved among all human alphaherpesviruses and in some nonhuman alphaherpesviruses. Thus, we have identified UL24.5 as a new HSV-1 determinant of pathogenesis.

Acute kidney injury is linked to higher mortality in elderly hospitalized patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation.

AIM: Renal insufficiency is associated with medical complications in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). However, data for elderly patients are scarce. Thus, the main objectives of the present study were to analyze the characteristics of elderly patients with NVAF and acute or chronic renal disease, describe their management in real-life conditions, and detect factors associated with complications. METHODS: The NONAVASC registry includes patients > 75 years with NVAF, hospitalized by any cause in 64 Spanish Internal Medicine departments. Patients were categorized into acute kidney injury (AKI), chronic kidney disease (CKD) or preserved renal function (PRF). All variables associated with in-hospital mortality with P < 0.10 in univariate analysis were included to develop a multivariate logistic-regression model. RESULTS: The study included 804 patients (53.9% women), 352 (43.8%) of whom met diagnostic criteria for CKD. AKI was detected in 119 (14.8%) patients. AKI was associated with greater length of stay, higher mortality and an increased rate of patient transfer to nursing homes. After logistic-regression analysis, we found an association between mortality and AKI (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.03-5.53; P = 0.045). The increase in creatinine values (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.19-2.73; P = 0.005) and the decrease in albumin values (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.05-3.73; P = 0.033) were also linked to mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows the relationship between AKI and creatinine value increase and a higher mortality in elderly patients with NVAF. In light of our findings, the detection of renal function impairment in these patients should alert physicians and consider them as high-risk patients.

Actinic Cheilitis Prevalence and Risk Factors: A Cross-sectional, Multicentre Study in a Population Aged 45 Years and Over in North-west Spain.

Actinic cheilitis is thought to be a premalignant lesion or a superficial squamous cell carcinoma. The prevalence of actinic cheilitis in Europe is unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of actinic cheilitis in the Galicia region (north-west Spain). Secondary objectives were the description of risk factors of actinic cheilitis. A cross-sectional multicentre study in patients ≥ 45 years of age was performed in 8 dermatology departments in Galicia region during a 1-year period. The prevalence of actinic cheilitis was 31.3%. Significant and independent risk factors of actinic cheilitis after multivariate analysis were age ≥ 60 years, Fitzpatrick skin phototype II, outdoor working for more than 25 years, and previous history of non-melanoma skin cancer. This is the first cross-sectional multicentre study of the prevalence of actinic cheilitis in Europe. Actinic cheilitis was present in almost one-third of the screened patients. Lip examination should be performed in all patients with chronic actinic damage.

Bone Mineral Density Distribution Curves in Spanish Adults With Down Syndrome.

According to reports from small-sized case series, adults with Down syndrome (DS) appear to have lower bone mineral density (BMD) than the general population. The objective of our study was to further characterize the bone mass acquisition curve in an adult DS population. This is a retrospective study of 297 adults with DS from the Adult Down Syndrome Outpatient Clinic of a tertiary care hospital in Madrid, Spain, who underwent a bone densitometry (Hologic QDR-4500W), for clinical purposes between January 2010 and June 2015. The mean age of our sample population was 34 yr (±10.9); 51% were women. Bone mass peak was reached earlier and was lower than the general population (around 20-25 yr), with almost parallel curves. The mean BMD was 0.715 ± 0.12 g/cm2 in femoral neck (FN) and 0.872 ± 0.11 g/cm2 in lumbar spine (LS). According to FN scores, 52% of the subjects were classified as osteopenic and 18% as osteoporotic. According to LS scores, frequencies were 54% and 25%, respectively. BMD was considered inadequate for the age (Z-score < -2 standard deviation) in 18% of the subjects at FN and 40% at LS. BMD at LS was significantly lower in males than in females (52% vs 38%, p < 0.001). Male DS subjects had a 2.58-fold (95% confidence interval: 1.57-4.25) higher risk of developing reduced BMD at LS than females. Persons with DS reach the bone mass peak earlier and this bone mass is lower than the general population. Among subjects with DS, male gender is a risk factor for developing low BMD, especially at LS.

Corneal Biomechanics in Unilateral Keratoconus and Fellow Eyes with a Scheimpflug-based Tonometer.

SIGNIFICANCE: Before the appearance of evident keratoconus, corneal biomechanical changes may be detectable. Here, these properties are analyzed to detect any difference that could help in the early recognition of keratoconus to allow patients to benefit from early treatments and to avoid refractive procedures in these corneas. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to compare corneal biomechanical characteristics as determined by Corvis Scheimpflug Technology tonometry between normal eyes and asymmetric keratoconic eyes. METHODS: Retrospective data from normal eyes (n = 100), keratoconic eyes (n = 18), and their topographically normal fellow eyes (n = 18) were analyzed. Differences in the variables among the groups were determined. For the parameters that showed significant differences, the receiver operating characteristic curve and the area under the curve (AUC) were used to assess the diagnostic accuracy of each variable. The optimal cutoff points were determined when comparing normal and fellow eyes. Also, a new linear combination of variables was performed to obtain better discriminative values. RESULTS: The following variables differed significantly between normal and fellow eyes: length of the flattened cornea in the second applanation, peak distance, curvature radius at highest concavity, and central corneal thickness. When each variable was independently considered, AUCs, sensitivity, and specificity were insufficiently high for good discrimination between the two groups. However, using a linear combination of variables, an optimal cutoff point (0.157) was obtained with an AUC of 0.78, sensitivity of 0.84, and specificity of 0.69. CONCLUSIONS: A best predictive linear combination of corneal biomechanical variables was tested including diameter of the flattened cornea in the second applanation and central corneal thickness. This combination was considered as the best in terms of its prediction capacity, simplicity and clinical application. This formula may be useful in clinical practice to discriminate between normal eyes and incipient keratoconus.

Identification and management of comorbidity in psoriatic arthritis: evidence- and expert-based recommendations from a multidisciplinary panel from Spain.

The objective is to establish recommendations, based on evidence and expert opinion, for the identification and management of comorbidities in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA). The following techniques were applied: discussion group, systematic review, and Delphi survey for agreement. A panel of professionals from four specialties defined the users, the sections of the document, possible recommendations, and what systematic reviews should be performed. A second discussion was held with the results of the systematic reviews. Recommendations were formulated in the second meeting and voted online from 1 (total disagreement) to 10 (total agreement). Agreement was considered if at least 70% voted ≥7. The level of evidence and grade of recommendation were assigned using the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine guidance. The full document was critically appraised by the experts, and the project was supervised at all times by a methodologist. In a final step, the document was reviewed and commented by a patient and a health management specialist. Fourteen recommendations were produced, together with a checklist to facilitate the implementation. The items with the largest support from evidence were those related to cardiovascular disease and risk factors. The panel recommends paying special attention to obesity, smoking, and alcohol consumption, as they are all modifiable factors with an impact on treatment response or complications of PsA. Psychological and organizational aspects were also deemed important. We herein suggest practical recommendations for the management of comorbidities in PsA based on evidence and expert opinion.

Studying the relationship between a woman's reproductive lifespan and age at menarche using a Bayesian multivariate structured additive distributional regression model.

Studies addressing breast cancer risk factors have been looking at trends relative to age at menarche and menopause. These studies point to a downward trend of age at menarche and an upward trend for age at menopause, meaning an increase of a woman's reproductive lifespan cycle. In addition to studying the effect of the year of birth on the expectation of age at menarche and a woman's reproductive lifespan, it is important to understand how a woman's cohort affects the correlation between these two variables. Since the behavior of age at menarche and menopause may vary with the geographic location of a woman's residence, the spatial effect of the municipality where a woman resides needs to be considered. Thus, a Bayesian multivariate structured additive distributional regression model is proposed in order to analyze how a woman's municipality and year of birth affects a woman's age of menarche, her lifespan cycle, and the correlation of the two. The data consists of 212,517 postmenopausal women, born between 1920 and 1965, who attended the breast cancer screening program in the central region of Portugal.

Two-stage model for multivariate longitudinal and survival data with application to nephrology research.

In many follow-up studies different types of outcomes are collected including longitudinal measurements and time-to-event outcomes. Commonly, it is of interest to study the association between them. Joint modeling approaches of a single longitudinal outcome and survival process have recently gained increasing attention from both frequentist and Bayesian perspective. However, in many studies several longitudinal biomarkers are of interest and instead of selecting one single biomarker, the relationships between all these outcomes and their association with survival needs to be investigated. Our motivating study comes from Peritoneal Dialysis Programme in Nephrology research from Nephrology Unit, CHP (Hospital de Santo António), Porto, Portugal in which the interest relies on the possible association between various biomarkers (calcium, phosphate, parathormone, and creatinine) and the patients' survival. To this aim, we propose a two-stage model-based approach for multivariate longitudinal and survival data that allowed us to study such complex association structure. The multivariate model suggested in this paper provided new insights in the area of nephrology research showing valid results in comparison with those models studying each longitudinal biomarker with survival separately.

Predicting the occurrence of wildfires with binary structured additive regression models.

Wildfires are one of the main environmental problems facing societies today, and in the case of Galicia (north-west Spain), they are the main cause of forest destruction. This paper used binary structured additive regression (STAR) for modelling the occurrence of wildfires in Galicia. Binary STAR models are a recent contribution to the classical logistic regression and binary generalized additive models. Their main advantage lies in their flexibility for modelling non-linear effects, while simultaneously incorporating spatial and temporal variables directly, thereby making it possible to reveal possible relationships among the variables considered. The results showed that the occurrence of wildfires depends on many covariates which display variable behaviour across space and time, and which largely determine the likelihood of ignition of a fire. The joint possibility of working on spatial scales with a resolution of 1 × 1 km cells and mapping predictions in a colour range makes STAR models a useful tool for plotting and predicting wildfire occurrence. Lastly, it will facilitate the development of fire behaviour models, which can be invaluable when it comes to drawing up fire-prevention and firefighting plans.