CT radiomics models are unable to predict new liver metastasis after successful thermal ablation of colorectal liver metastases.

BACKGROUND: Patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) who undergo thermal ablation are at risk of developing new CRLM after ablation. Identification of these patients might enable individualized treatment. PURPOSE: To investigate whether an existing machine-learning model with radiomics features based on pre-ablation computed tomography (CT) images of patients with colorectal cancer can predict development of new CRLM. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In total, 94 patients with CRLM who were treated with thermal ablation were analyzed. Radiomics features were extracted from the healthy liver parenchyma of CT images in the portal venous phase, before thermal ablation. First, a previously developed radiomics model (Original model) was applied to the entire cohort to predict new CRLM after 6 and 24 months of follow-up. Next, new machine-learning models were developed (Radiomics, Clinical, and Combined), based on radiomics features, clinical features, or a combination of both. RESULTS: The external validation of the Original model reached an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.57 (95% confidence interval [CI]=0.56-0.58) and 0.52 (95% CI=0.51-0.53) for 6 and 24 months of follow-up. The new predictive radiomics models yielded a higher performance at 6 months compared to 24 months. For the prediction of CRLM at 6 months, the Combined model had slightly better performance (AUC=0.60; 95% CI=0.59-0.61) compared to the Radiomics and Clinical models (AUC=0.55-0.57), while all three models had a low performance for the prediction at 24 months (AUC=0.52-0.53). CONCLUSION: Both the Original and newly developed radiomics models were unable to predict new CLRM based on healthy liver parenchyma in patients who will undergo ablation for CRLM.

Largest diameter delineations can substitute 3D tumor volume delineations for radiomics prediction of human papillomavirus status on MRI's of oropharyngeal cancer.

PURPOSE: Laborious and time-consuming tumor segmentations are one of the factors that impede adoption of radiomics in the clinical routine. This study investigates model performance using alternative tumor delineation strategies in models predictive of human papillomavirus (HPV) in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). METHODS: Of 153 OPSCC patients, HPV status was determined using p16/p53 immunohistochemistry. MR-based radiomic features were extracted within 3D delineations by an inexperienced observer, experienced radiologist or radiation oncologist, and within a 2D delineation of the largest axial tumor diameter and 3D spheres within the tumor. First, logistic regression prediction models were constructed and tested separately for each of these six delineation strategies. Secondly, the model trained on experienced delineations was tested using these delineation strategies. The latter methodology was repeated with the omission of shape features. Model performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: Models constructed and tested using single-slice delineations (AUC/Sensitivity/Specificity: 0.84/0.75/0.84) perform better compared to 3D experienced observer delineations (AUC/Sensitivity/Specificity: 0.76/0.76/0.71), where models based on 4 mm sphere delineations (AUC/Sensitivity/Specificity: 0.77/0.59/0.71) show similar performance. Similar performance was found when experienced and largest diameter delineations (AUC/Sens/Spec: 0.76/0.75/0.65 vs 0.76/0.69/0.69) was used to test the model constructed using experienced delineations without shape features. CONCLUSION: Alternative delineations can substitute labor and time intensive full tumor delineations in a model that predicts HPV status in OPSCC. These faster delineations may improve adoption of radiomics in the clinical setting. Future research should evaluate whether these alternative delineations are valid in other radiomics models.

Simple delineations cannot substitute full 3d tumor delineations for MR-based radiomics prediction of locoregional control in oropharyngeal cancer.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Manual delineation of head and neck tumor contours for radiomics analyses is tedious and time consuming. This study investigates if fast or readily available tumor contours can substitute full tumor contours by an experienced observer for an MR-based radiomics model to predict locoregional control (LRC) in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) tumors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Radiomic features were extracted from postcontrast T1-weighted MRIs of 177 OPSCC primary tumors using six different manual delineation strategies. LRC prediction models based on recursive feature elimination combined with logistic regression were built. Models were trained and tested on data from each separate delineation. Additionally, the model derived from segmentations from the experienced reader was tested by each of the alternative delineations. Complementary, this was repeated with removal of size and shape features. Model performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: Prediction performance of the experienced radiologist tumor delineation (AUC: 0.74) was superior compared to all other delineations when trained and tested (AUCs: 0.41-0.56) or trained on experienced delineations and tested (AUC: 0.56-0.67) on alternative segmentations. Removal of size and shape features considerably decreases prediction performance (AUC: 0.54). Applying the model based on expert delineations to spherical or single slice delineations makes prediction worthless since these models predict one class. CONCLUSION: Fast or readily available contours cannot substitute full expert tumor delineations in radiomics models predictive of LRC in OPSCC.

Radiomics for the Prediction of Treatment Outcome and Survival in Patients With Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review.

Prediction of outcome in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) is challenging as a result of lack of a robust biomarker and heterogeneity between and within tumors. The aim of this review was to assess the current possibilities and limitations of radiomics (on computed tomography [CT], magnetic resonance imaging [MRI], and positron emission tomography [PET]) for the prediction of treatment outcome and long-term outcome in CRC. Medline/PubMed was searched up to August 2020 for studies that used radiomics for the prediction of response to treatment and survival in patients with CRC (based on pretreatment imaging). The Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) tool and Radiomics Quality Score (RQS) were used for quality assessment. A total of 76 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included for further analysis. Radiomics analyses were performed on MRI in 41 studies, on CT in 30 studies, and on 18F-FDG-PET/CT in 10 studies. Heterogeneous results were reported regarding radiomics methods and included features. High-quality studies (n = 13), consisting mainly of MRI-based radiomics to predict response in rectal cancer, were able to predict response with good performance. Radiomics literature in CRC is highly heterogeneous, but it nonetheless holds promise for the prediction of outcome. The most evidence is available for MRI-based radiomics in rectal cancer. Future radiomics research in CRC should focus on independent validation of existing models rather than on developing new models.

CT-Based Radiomics Analysis Before Thermal Ablation to Predict Local Tumor Progression for Colorectal Liver Metastases.

PURPOSE: Predicting early local tumor progression after thermal ablation treatment for colorectal liver metastases patients is critical for the decision of subsequent follow-up and treatment. Radiomics features derived from medical images show great potential for prediction and prognosis. The aim is to develop and validate a machine learning radiomics model to predict local tumor progression based on the pre-ablation CT scan of colorectal liver metastases patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Ninety patients with colorectal liver metastases (140 lesions) treated by ablation were included in the study and were randomly divided into a training (n = 63 patients/n = 94 lesions) and validation (n = 27 patients/n = 46 lesions) cohort. After manual lesion volume segmentation and preprocessing, 1593 radiomics features were extracted for each lesion. Three machine learning survival models were constructed based on (1) radiomics features, (2) clinical features and (3) a combination of clinical and radiomics features to predict local tumor progression free survival. Feature reduction and machine learning modeling were performed and optimized with sequential model-based optimization. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 24 months (range 6-115). Thirty-one (22%) lesions developed local tumor progression. The concordance index in the validation set to predict local tumor progression free survival was 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.77-0.79) for the radiomics model, 0.56 (95%CI: 0.55-0.57) for the clinical model and 0.79 (95%CI: 0.78-0.80) for the combined model. CONCLUSION: A machine learning-based radiomics analysis of routine clinical CT imaging pre-ablation could act as a valuable biomarker model to predict local tumor progression with curative intent for colorectal liver metastases patients.

Improved outcome prediction of oropharyngeal cancer by combining clinical and MRI features in machine learning models.

OBJECTIVES: New markers are required to predict chemoradiation response in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) patients. This study evaluated the ability of magnetic resonance (MR) radiomics to predict locoregional control (LRC) and overall survival (OS) after chemoradiation and aimed to determine whether this has added value to traditional clinical outcome predictors. METHODS: 177 OPSCC patients were eligible for this study. Radiomic features were extracted from the primary tumor region in T1-weighted postcontrast MRI acquired before chemoradiation. Logistic regression models were created using either clinical variables (clinical model), radiomic features (radiomic model) or clinical and radiomic features combined (combined model) to predict LRC and OS 2-years posttreatment. Model performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), 95 % confidence intervals were calculated using 500 iterations of bootstrap. All analyses were performed for the total population and the Human papillomavirus (HPV) negative tumor subgroup. RESULTS: A combined model predicted treatment outcome with a higher AUC (LRC: 0.745 [0.734-0.757], OS: 0.744 [0.735-0.753]) than the clinical model (LRC: 0.607 [0.594-0.620], OS: 0.708 [0.697-0.719]). Performance of the radiomic model was comparable to the combined model for LRC (AUC: 0.740 [0.729-0.750]), but not for OS prediction (AUC: 0.654 [0.646-0.662]). In HPV negative patients, the performance of all models was not sufficient with AUCs ranging from 0.587 to 0.660 for LRC and 0.559 to 0.600 for OS prediction. CONCLUSION: Predictive models that include clinical variables and radiomic tumor features derived from MR images of OPSCC better predict LRC after chemoradiation than models based on only clinical variables. Predictive models that include clinical variables perform better than models based on only radiomic features for the prediction of OS.

Machine learning-based analysis of CT radiomics model for prediction of colorectal metachronous liver metastases.

PURPOSE: Early identification of patients at risk of developing colorectal liver metastases can help personalizing treatment and improve oncological outcome. The aim of this study was to investigate in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) whether a machine learning-based radiomics model can predict the occurrence of metachronous metastases. METHODS: In this multicentre study, the primary staging portal venous phase CT of 91 CRC patients were retrospectively analysed. Two groups were assessed: patients without liver metastases at primary staging, or during follow-up of ≥ 24 months (n = 67) and patients without liver metastases at primary staging but developed metachronous liver metastases < 24 months after primary staging (n = 24). After liver parenchyma segmentation, 1767 radiomics features were extracted for each patient. Three predictive models were constructed based on (1) radiomics features, (2) clinical features and (3) a combination of clinical and radiomics features. Stability of features across hospitals was assessed by the Kruskal-Wallis test and inter-correlated features were removed if their correlation coefficient was higher than 0.9. Bayesian-optimized random forest with wrapper feature selection was used for prediction models. RESULTS: The three predictive models that included radiomics features, clinical features and a combination of radiomics with clinical features resulted in an AUC in the validation cohort of 86% (95%CI 85-87%), 71% (95%CI 69-72%) and 86% (95% CI 85-87%), respectively. CONCLUSION: A machine learning-based radiomics analysis of routine clinical CT imaging at primary staging can provide valuable biomarkers to identify patients at high risk for developing colorectal liver metastases.