Inferring fungal growth rates from optical density data.

Quantifying fungal growth underpins our ability to effectively treat severe fungal infections. Current methods quantify fungal growth rates from time-course morphology-specific data, such as hyphal length data. However, automated large-scale collection of such data lies beyond the scope of most clinical microbiology laboratories. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model of fungal growth to estimate morphology-specific growth rates from easy-to-collect, but indirect, optical density (OD600) data of Aspergillus fumigatus growth (filamentous fungus). Our method accounts for OD600 being an indirect measure by explicitly including the relationship between the indirect OD600 measurements and the calibrating true fungal growth in the model. Therefore, the method does not require de novo generation of calibration data. Our model outperformed reference models at fitting to and predicting OD600 growth curves and overcame observed discrepancies between morphology-specific rates inferred from OD600 versus directly measured data in reference models that did not include calibration.

Evaluation of measurement errors in the Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM) outcome.

BACKGROUND: The Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM) is the recommended core outcome instrument for atopic dermatitis (AD) symptoms. POEM is reported by recalling the presence/absence of seven symptoms in the last 7 days. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate measurement errors in POEM recordings due to imperfect recall. METHODS: Using data from a clinical trial of 247 AD patients aged 12-65 years, we analysed the reported POEM score (r-POEM) and the POEM derived from the corresponding daily scores for the same seven symptoms without weekly recall (d-POEM). We quantified recall error by comparing the r-POEM and d-POEM for 777 patient-weeks collected from 207 patients, and estimated two components of recall error: (1) recall bias due to systematic errors in measurements and (2) recall noise due to random errors in measurements, using a bespoke statistical model. RESULTS: POEM scores have a relatively low recall bias, but a high recall noise. Recall bias was estimated at 1.2 points lower for the r-POEM on average than the d-POEM, with a recall noise of 5.7 points. For example, a patient with a recall-free POEM of 11 (moderate) could report their POEM score anywhere from 5 to 14 (with 95% probability) because of recall error. Model estimates suggested that patients tend to recall itch and dryness more often than experienced (positive bias of less than 1 day), but less often for the other symptoms (bleeding, cracking, flaking, oozing/weeping and sleep disturbance; negative bias ranging 1-4 days). CONCLUSIONS: In this clinical trial data set, we found that patients tended to slightly underestimate their symptoms when reporting POEM, with significant variation in how well they were able to recall the frequency of their symptoms every time they reported POEM. A large recall noise should be taken into consideration when interpreting POEM scores.

Role of epithelial barrier function in inducing type 2 immunity following early-life viral infection.

BACKGROUND: Preschool wheeze attacks triggered by recurrent viral infections, including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), are associated with an increased risk of childhood asthma. However, mechanisms that lead to asthma following early-life viral wheezing remain uncertain. METHODS: To investigate a causal relationship between early-life RSV infections and onset of type 2 immunity, we developed a neonatal murine model of recurrent RSV infection, in vivo and in silico, and evaluated the dynamical changes of altered airway barrier function and downstream immune responses, including eosinophilia, mucus secretion and type 2 immunity. RESULTS: RSV infection of neonatal BALB/c mice at 5 and 15 days of age induced robust airway eosinophilia, increased pulmonary CD4+ IL-13+ and CD4+ IL-5+ cells, elevated levels of IL-13 and IL-5 and increased airway mucus at 20 days of age. Increased bronchoalveolar lavage albumin levels, suggesting epithelial barrier damage, were present and persisted following the second RSV infection. Computational in silico simulations demonstrated that recurrent RSV infection resulted in severe damage of the airway barrier (epithelium), triggering the onset of type 2 immunity. The in silico results also demonstrated that recurrent infection is not always necessary for the development of type 2 immunity, which could also be triggered with single infection of high viral load or when the epithelial barrier repair is compromised. CONCLUSIONS: The neonatal murine model demonstrated that recurrent RSV infection in early life alters airway barrier function and promotes type 2 immunity. A causal relationship between airway barrier function and type 2 immunity was suggested using in silico model simulations.

Determining the clinical applicability of machine learning models through assessment of reporting across skin phototypes and rarer skin cancer types: A systematic review.

Machine learning (ML) models for skin cancer recognition may have variable performance across different skin phototypes and skin cancer types. Overall performance metrics alone are insufficient to detect poor subgroup performance. We aimed (1) to assess whether studies of ML models reported results separately for different skin phototypes and rarer skin cancers, and (2) to graphically represent the skin cancer training datasets used by current ML models. In this systematic review, we searched PubMed, Embase and CENTRAL. We included all studies in medical journals assessing an ML technique for skin cancer diagnosis that used clinical or dermoscopic images from 1 January 2012 to 22 September 2021. No language restrictions were applied. We considered rarer skin cancers to be skin cancers other than pigmented melanoma, basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma. We identified 114 studies for inclusion. Rarer skin cancers were included by 8/114 studies (7.0%), and results for a rarer skin cancer were reported separately in 1/114 studies (0.9%). Performance was reported across all skin phototypes in 1/114 studies (0.9%), but performance was uncertain in skin phototypes I and VI from minimal representation of the skin phototypes in the test dataset (9/3756 and 1/3756, respectively). For training datasets, although public datasets were most frequently used, with the most widely used being the International Skin Imaging Collaboration (ISIC) archive (65/114 studies, 57.0%), the largest datasets were private. Our review identified that most ML models did not report performance separately for rarer skin cancers and different skin phototypes. A degree of variability in ML model performance across subgroups is expected, but the current lack of transparency is not justifiable and risks models being used inappropriately in populations in whom accuracy is low.

A mathematical model to identify optimal combinations of drug targets for dupilumab poor responders in atopic dermatitis.

BACKGROUND: Several biologics for atopic dermatitis (AD) have demonstrated good efficacy in clinical trials, but with a substantial proportion of patients being identified as poor responders. This study aims to understand the pathophysiological backgrounds of patient variability in drug response, especially for dupilumab, and to identify promising drug targets in dupilumab poor responders. METHODS: We conducted model-based meta-analysis of recent clinical trials of AD biologics and developed a mathematical model that reproduces reported clinical efficacies for nine biological drugs (dupilumab, lebrikizumab, tralokinumab, secukinumab, fezakinumab, nemolizumab, tezepelumab, GBR 830, and recombinant interferon-gamma) by describing system-level AD pathogenesis. Using this model, we simulated the clinical efficacy of hypothetical therapies on virtual patients. RESULTS: Our model reproduced reported time courses of %improved EASI and EASI-75 of the nine drugs. The global sensitivity analysis and model simulation indicated the baseline level of IL-13 could stratify dupilumab good responders. Model simulation on the efficacies of hypothetical therapies revealed that simultaneous inhibition of IL-13 and IL-22 was effective, whereas application of the nine biologic drugs was ineffective, for dupilumab poor responders (EASI-75 at 24 weeks: 21.6% vs. max. 1.9%). CONCLUSION: Our model identified IL-13 as a potential predictive biomarker to stratify dupilumab good responders, and simultaneous inhibition of IL-13 and IL-22 as a promising drug therapy for dupilumab poor responders. This model will serve as a computational platform for model-informed drug development for precision medicine, as it allows evaluation of the effects of new potential drug targets and the mechanisms behind patient variability in drug response.

A Suite of Activity-Based Probes To Dissect the KLK Activome in Drug-Resistant Prostate Cancer.

Kallikrein-related peptidases (KLKs) are a family of secreted serine proteases, which form a network (the KLK activome) with an important role in proteolysis and signaling. In prostate cancer (PCa), increased KLK activity promotes tumor growth and metastasis through multiple biochemical pathways, and specific quantification and tracking of changes in the KLK activome could contribute to validation of KLKs as potential drug targets. Herein we report a technology platform based on novel activity-based probes (ABPs) and inhibitors enabling simultaneous orthogonal analysis of KLK2, KLK3, and KLK14 activity in hormone-responsive PCa cell lines and tumor homogenates. Importantly, we identifed a significant decoupling of KLK activity and abundance and suggest that KLK proteolysis should be considered as an additional parameter, along with the PSA blood test, for accurate PCa diagnosis and monitoring. Using selective inhibitors and multiplexed fluorescent activity-based protein profiling (ABPP), we dissect the KLK activome in PCa cells and show that increased KLK14 activity leads to a migratory phenotype. Furthermore, using biotinylated ABPs, we show that active KLK molecules are secreted into the bone microenvironment by PCa cells following stimulation by osteoblasts suggesting KLK-mediated signaling mechanisms could contribute to PCa metastasis to bone. Together our findings show that ABPP is a powerful approach to dissect dysregulation of the KLK activome as a promising and previously underappreciated therapeutic target in advanced PCa.

Immunoinflammatory Biomarkers in Serum Are Associated with Disease Severity in Atopic Dermatitis.

BACKGROUND: A growing body of evidence links various biomarkers to atopic dermatitis (AD). Still, little is known about the association of specific biomarkers to disease characteristics and severity in AD. OBJECTIVE: To explore the relationship between various immunological markers in the serum and disease severity in a hospital cohort of AD patients. METHODS: Outpatients with AD referred to the Department of Dermatology, Bispebjerg Hospital, Copenhagen, Denmark, were divided into groups based on disease severity (SCORAD). Serum levels of a preselected panel of immunoinflammatory biomarkers were tested for association with disease characteristics. Two machine learning models were developed to predict SCORAD from the measured biomarkers. RESULTS: A total of 160 patients with AD were included; 53 (33.1%) with mild, 73 (45.6%) with moderate, and 34 (21.3%) with severe disease. Mean age was 29.2 years (range 6-70 years) and 84 (52.5%) were females. Numerous biomarkers showed a statistically significant correlation with SCORAD, with the strongest correlations seen for CCL17/thymus and activation-regulated chemokine (chemokine ligand-17/TARC) and CCL27/cutaneous T cell-attracting-chemokine (CTACK; Spearman R of 0.50 and 0.43, respectively, p < 0.001). Extrinsic AD patients were more likely to have higher mean SCORAD (p < 0.001), CCL17 (p < 0.001), CCL26/eotaxin-3 (p < 0.001), and eosinophil count (p < 0.001) than intrinsic AD patients. Predictive models for SCORAD identified CCL17, CCL27, serum total IgE, IL-33, and IL-5 as the most important predictors for SCORAD, but with weaker associations than single cytokines. CONCLUSIONS: Specific immunoinflammatory biomarkers in the serum, mainly of the Th2 pathway, are correlated with disease severity in patients with AD. Predictive models identified biomarkers associated with disease severity but this finding warrants further investigation.

Personalized prediction of daily eczema severity scores using a mechanistic machine learning model.

BACKGROUND: Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic inflammatory skin disease with periods of flares and remission. Designing personalized treatment strategies for AD is challenging, given the apparent unpredictability and large variation in AD symptoms and treatment responses within and across individuals. Better prediction of AD severity over time for individual patients could help to select optimum timing and type of treatment for improving disease control. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop a proof of principle mechanistic machine learning model that predicts the patient-specific evolution of AD severity scores on a daily basis. METHODS: We designed a probabilistic predictive model and trained it using Bayesian inference with the longitudinal data from two published clinical studies. The data consisted of daily recordings of AD severity scores and treatments used by 59 and 334 AD children over 6 months and 16 weeks, respectively. Validation of the predictive model was conducted in a forward-chaining setting. RESULTS: Our model was able to predict future severity scores at the individual level and improved chance-level forecast by 60%. Heterogeneous patterns in severity trajectories were captured with patient-specific parameters such as the short-term persistence of AD severity and responsiveness to topical steroids, calcineurin inhibitors and step-up treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Our proof of principle model successfully predicted the daily evolution of AD severity scores at an individual level and could inform the design of personalized treatment strategies that can be tested in future studies. Our model-based approach can be applied to other diseases with apparent unpredictability and large variation in symptoms and treatment responses such as asthma.

Human and computational models of atopic dermatitis: A review and perspectives by an expert panel of the International Eczema Council.

Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a prevalent disease worldwide and is associated with systemic comorbidities representing a significant burden on patients, their families, and society. Therapeutic options for AD remain limited, in part because of a lack of well-characterized animal models. There has been increasing interest in developing experimental approaches to study the pathogenesis of human AD in vivo, in vitro, and in silico to better define pathophysiologic mechanisms and identify novel therapeutic targets and biomarkers that predict therapeutic response. This review critically appraises a range of models, including genetic mutations relevant to AD, experimental challenge of human skin in vivo, tissue culture models, integration of "omics" data sets, and development of predictive computational models. Although no one individual model recapitulates the complex AD pathophysiology, our review highlights insights gained into key elements of cutaneous biology, molecular pathways, and therapeutic target identification through each approach. Recent developments in computational analysis, including application of machine learning and a systems approach to data integration and predictive modeling, highlight the applicability of these methods to AD subclassification (endotyping), therapy development, and precision medicine. Such predictive modeling will highlight knowledge gaps, further inform refinement of biological models, and support new experimental and systems approaches to AD.

Bifurcation analysis of a mathematical model of atopic dermatitis to determine patient-specific effects of treatments on dynamic phenotypes.

Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a common inflammatory skin disease, whose incidence is currently increasing worldwide. AD has a complex etiology, involving genetic, environmental, immunological, and epidermal factors, and its pathogenic mechanisms have not yet been fully elucidated. Identification of AD risk factors and systematic understanding of their interactions are required for exploring effective prevention and treatment strategies for AD. We recently developed a mathematical model for AD pathogenesis to clarify mechanisms underlying AD onset and progression. This model describes a dynamic interplay between skin barrier, immune regulation, and environmental stress, and reproduced four types of dynamic behaviour typically observed in AD patients in response to environmental triggers. Here, we analyse bifurcations of the model to identify mathematical conditions for the system to demonstrate transitions between different types of dynamic behaviour that reflect respective severity of AD symptoms. By mathematically modelling effects of topical application of antibiotics, emollients, corticosteroids, and their combinations with different application schedules and doses, bifurcation analysis allows us to mathematically evaluate effects of the treatments on improving AD symptoms in terms of the patients' dynamic behaviour. The mathematical method developed in this study can be used to explore and improve patient-specific personalised treatment strategies to control AD symptoms.

Mathematical modeling of atopic dermatitis reveals "double-switch" mechanisms underlying 4 common disease phenotypes.

BACKGROUND: The skin barrier acts as the first line of defense against constant exposure to biological, microbial, physical, and chemical environmental stressors. Dynamic interplay between defects in the skin barrier, dysfunctional immune responses, and environmental stressors are major factors in the development of atopic dermatitis (AD). A systems biology modeling approach can yield significant insights into these complex and dynamic processes through integration of prior biological data. OBJECTIVE: We sought to develop a multiscale mathematical model of AD pathogenesis that describes the dynamic interplay between the skin barrier, environmental stress, and immune dysregulation and use it to achieve a coherent mechanistic understanding of the onset, progression, and prevention of AD. METHODS: We mathematically investigated synergistic effects of known genetic and environmental risk factors on the dynamic onset and progression of the AD phenotype, from a mostly asymptomatic mild phenotype to a severe treatment-resistant form. RESULTS: Our model analysis identified a "double switch," with 2 concatenated bistable switches, as a key network motif that dictates AD pathogenesis: the first switch is responsible for the reversible onset of inflammation, and the second switch is triggered by long-lasting or frequent activation of the first switch, causing irreversible onset of systemic TH2 sensitization and worsening of AD symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Our mathematical analysis of the bistable switch predicts that genetic risk factors decrease the threshold of environmental stressors to trigger systemic TH2 sensitization. This analysis predicts and explains 4 common clinical AD phenotypes from a mild and reversible phenotype through to severe and recalcitrant disease and provides a mechanistic explanation for clinically demonstrated preventive effects of emollient treatments against development of AD.

Synergistic Activation of RD29A Via Integration of Salinity Stress and Abscisic Acid in Arabidopsis thaliana.

Plants perceive information from the surroundings and elicit appropriate molecular responses. How plants dynamically respond to combinations of external inputs is yet to be revealed, despite the detailed current knowledge of intracellular signaling pathways. We measured dynamics of Response-to-Dehydration 29A (RD29A) expression induced by single or combined NaCl and ABA treatments in Arabidopsis thaliana. RD29A expression in response to a combination of NaCl and ABA leads to unique dynamic behavior that cannot be explained by the sum of responses to individual NaCl and ABA. To explore the potential mechanisms responsible for the observed synergistic response, we developed a mathematical model of the DREB2 and AREB pathways based on existing knowledge, where NaCl and ABA act as the cognate inputs, respectively, and examined various system structures with cross-input modulation, where non-cognate input affects expression of the genes involved in adjacent signaling pathways. The results from the analysis of system structures, combined with the insights from microarray expression profiles and model-guided experiments, predicted that synergistic activation of RD29A originates from enhancement of DREB2 activity by ABA. Our analysis of RD29A expression profiles demonstrates that a simple mathematical model can be used to extract information from temporal dynamics induced by combinatorial stimuli and produce experimentally testable hypotheses.

Controversies concerning thymus-derived regulatory T cells: fundamental issues and a new perspective.

Thymus-derived regulatory T cells (Tregs) are considered to be a distinct T-cell lineage that is genetically programmed and specialised for immunosuppression. This perspective is based on the key evidence that CD25(+) Tregs emigrate to neonatal spleen a few days later than other T cells and that thymectomy of 3-day-old mice depletes Tregs only, causing autoimmune diseases. Although widely believed, the evidence has never been reproduced as originally reported, and some studies indicate that Tregs exist in neonates. Thus we examine the consequences of the controversial evidence, revisit the fundamental issues of Tregs and thereby reveal the overlooked relationship of T-cell activation and Foxp3-mediated control of the T-cell system. Here we provide a new model of Tregs and Foxp3, a feedback control perspective, which views Tregs as a component of the system that controls T-cell activation, rather than as a distinct genetically programmed lineage. This perspective provides new insights into the roles of self-reactivity, T cell-antigen-presenting cell interaction and T-cell activation in Foxp3-mediated immune regulation.

Visualisation of the T cell differentiation programme by Canonical Correspondence Analysis of transcriptomes.

BACKGROUND: Currently, in the era of post-genomics, immunology is facing a challenging problem to translate mutant phenotypes into gene functions based on high-throughput data, while taking into account the classifications and functions of immune cells, which requires new methods. RESULTS: Here we propose a novel application of a multidimensional analysis, Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA), to reveal the molecular characteristics of undefined cells in terms of cellular differentiation programmes by analysing two transcriptomic datasets. Using two independent datasets, whether RNA-seq or microarray data, CCA successfully visualised the cross-level relationships between genes, cells, and differentiation programmes, and thereby identified the immunological features of mutant cells (Gata3-KO T cells and Stat3-KO T cells) in a data-oriented manner. With a new concept, differentiation variable, CCA provides an automatic classification of cell samples, which had a high sensitivity and a comparable performance to other classification methods. In addition, we elaborate how CCA results can be interpreted, and reveal the features of CCA in comparison with other visualisation techniques. CONCLUSIONS: CCA is a visualisation tool with a classification ability to reveal the cross-level relationships of genes, cells and differentiation programmes. This can be used for characterising the functional defect of cells of interest (e.g. mutant cells) in the context of cellular differentiation. The proposed approach fits with common hypothesis-oriented studies in immunology, and can be used for a wide range of molecular and genomic studies on cellular differentiation mechanisms.

In Silico Elucidation of Key Drivers of Staphyloccocus aureus-Staphyloccocus epidermidis-Induced Skin Damage in Atopic Dermatitis Lesions.

Staphylococcus aureus (SA) colonizes and can damage skin in atopic dermatitis lesions, despite being commonly found with Staphylococcus epidermidis (SE), a commensal that can inhibit SA's virulence and kill SA. In this study, we developed an in silico model, termed a virtual skin site, describing the dynamic interplay between SA, SE, and the skin barrier in atopic dermatitis lesions to investigate the mechanisms driving skin damage by SA and SE. We generated 106 virtual skin sites by varying model parameters to represent different skin physiologies and bacterial properties. In silico analysis revealed that virtual skin sites with no skin damage in the model were characterized by parameters representing stronger SA and SE growth attenuation than those with skin damage. This inspired an in silico treatment strategy combining SA-killing with an enhanced SA-SE growth attenuation, which was found through simulations to recover many more damaged virtual skin sites to a non-damaged state, compared with SA-killing alone. This study demonstrates that in silico modelling can help elucidate the key factors driving skin damage caused by SA-SE colonization in atopic dermatitis lesions and help propose strategies to control it, which we envision will contribute to the design of promising treatments for clinical studies.

Three stepwise pH progressions in stratum corneum for homeostatic maintenance of the skin.

The stratum corneum is the outermost skin layer with a vital role in skin barrier function. It is comprised of dead keratinocytes (corneocytes) and is known to maintain its thickness by shedding cells, although, the precise mechanisms that safeguard stratum corneum maturation and homeostasis remain unclear. Previous ex vivo studies have suggested a neutral-to-acidic pH gradient in the stratum corneum. Here, we use intravital pH imaging at single-corneocyte resolution to demonstrate that corneocytes actually undergo differentiation to develop three distinct zones in the stratum corneum, each with a distinct pH value. We identified a moderately acidic lower, an acidic middle, and a pH-neutral upper layer in the stratum corneum, with tight junctions playing a key role in their development. The upper pH neutral zone can adjust its pH according to the external environment and has a neutral pH under steady-state conditions owing to the influence of skin microbiota. The middle acidic pH zone provides a defensive barrier against pathogens. With mathematical modeling, we demonstrate the controlled protease activation of kallikrein-related peptidases on the stratum corneum surface that results in proper corneocyte shedding in desquamation. This work adds crucial information to our understanding of how stratum corneum homeostasis is maintained.

Reliable Detection of Eczema Areas for Fully Automated Assessment of Eczema Severity from Digital Camera Images.

Assessing the severity of eczema in clinical research requires face-to-face skin examination by trained staff. Such approaches are resource-intensive for participants and staff, challenging during pandemics, and prone to inter- and intra-observer variation. Computer vision algorithms have been proposed to automate the assessment of eczema severity using digital camera images. However, they often require human intervention to detect eczema lesions and cannot automatically assess eczema severity from real-world images in an end-to-end pipeline. We developed a model to detect eczema lesions from images using data augmentation and pixel-level segmentation of eczema lesions on 1,345 images provided by dermatologists. We evaluated the quality of the obtained segmentation compared with that of the clinicians, the robustness to varying imaging conditions encountered in real-life images, such as lighting, focus, and blur, and the performance of downstream severity prediction when using the detected eczema lesions. The quality and robustness of eczema lesion detection increased by approximately 25% and 40%, respectively, compared with that of our previous eczema detection model. The performance of the downstream severity prediction remained unchanged. Use of skin segmentation as an alternative to eczema segmentation that requires specialist labeling showed the performance on par with when eczema segmentation is used.

Data-driven research on eczema: Systematic characterization of the field and recommendations for the future.

Background: The past decade has seen a substantial rise in the employment of modern data-driven methods to study atopic dermatitis (AD)/eczema. The objective of this study is to summarise the past and future of data-driven AD research, and identify areas in the field that would benefit from the application of these methods. Methods: We retrieved the publications that applied multivariate statistics (MS), artificial intelligence (AI, including machine learning-ML), and Bayesian statistics (BS) to AD and eczema research from the SCOPUS database over the last 50 years. We conducted a bibliometric analysis to highlight the publication trends and conceptual knowledge structure of the field, and applied topic modelling to retrieve the key topics in the literature. Results: Five key themes of data-driven research on AD and eczema were identified: (1) allergic co-morbidities, (2) image analysis and classification, (3) disaggregation, (4) quality of life and treatment response, and (5) risk factors and prevalence. ML&AI methods mapped to studies investigating quality of life, prevalence, risk factors, allergic co-morbidities and disaggregation of AD/eczema, but seldom in studies of therapies. MS was employed evenly between the topics, particularly in studies on risk factors and prevalence. BS was focused on three key topics: treatment, risk factors and allergy. The use of AD or eczema terms was not uniform, with studies applying ML&AI methods using the term eczema more often. Within MS, papers using cluster and factor analysis were often only identified with the term AD. In contrast, those using logistic regression and latent class/transition models were "eczema" papers. Conclusions: Research areas that could benefit from the application of data-driven methods include the study of the pathogenesis of the condition and related risk factors, its disaggregation into validated subtypes, and personalised severity management and prognosis. We highlight BS as a new and promising approach in AD and eczema research.

Model-Based Meta-Analysis to Optimize Staphylococcus aureus‒Targeted Therapies for Atopic Dermatitis.

Several clinical trials of Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus)‒targeted therapies for atopic dermatitis (AD) have shown conflicting results about whether they improve AD severity scores. This study performs a model-based meta-analysis to investigate the possible causes of these conflicting results and suggests how to improve the efficacies of S. aureus‒targeted therapies. We developed a mathematical model that describes systems-level AD pathogenesis involving dynamic interactions between S. aureus and coagulase-negative Staphylococcus (CoNS). Our model simulation reproduced the clinically observed detrimental effects of the application of S. hominis A9 and flucloxacillin on AD severity and showed that these effects disappeared if the bactericidal activity against CoNS was removed. A hypothetical (modeled) eradication of S. aureus by 3.0 log10 colony-forming unit per cm2 without killing CoNS achieved Eczema Area and Severity Index 75 comparable with that of dupilumab. This efficacy was potentiated if dupilumab was administered in conjunction with S. aureus eradication (Eczema Area and Severity Index 75 at week 16) (S. aureus eradication: 66.7%, dupilumab 61.6% and combination 87.8%). The improved efficacy was also seen for virtual dupilumab poor responders. Our model simulation suggests that killing CoNS worsens AD severity and that S. aureus‒specific eradication without killing CoNS could be effective for patients with AD, including dupilumab poor responders. This study will contribute to designing promising S. aureus‒targeted therapy.

EczemaPred: A computational framework for personalised prediction of eczema severity dynamics.

BACKGROUND: Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic inflammatory skin disease leading to substantial quality of life impairment with heterogeneous treatment responses. People with AD would benefit from personalised treatment strategies, whose design requires predicting how AD severity evolves for each individual. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop a computational framework for personalised prediction of AD severity dynamics. METHODS: We introduced EczemaPred, a computational framework to predict patient-dependent dynamic evolution of AD severity using Bayesian state-space models that describe latent dynamics of AD severity items and how they are measured. We used EczemaPred to predict the dynamic evolution of validated patient-oriented scoring atopic dermatitis (PO-SCORAD) by combining predictions from the models for the nine severity items of PO-SCORAD (six intensity signs, extent of eczema, and two subjective symptoms). We validated this approach using longitudinal data from two independent studies: a published clinical study in which PO-SCORAD was measured twice weekly for 347 AD patients over 17 weeks, and another one in which PO-SCORAD was recorded daily by 16 AD patients for 12 weeks. RESULTS: EczemaPred achieved good performance for personalised predictions of PO-SCORAD and its severity items daily to weekly. EczemaPred outperformed standard time-series forecasting models such as a mixed effect autoregressive model. The uncertainty in predicting PO-SCORAD was mainly attributed to that in predicting intensity signs (75% of the overall uncertainty). CONCLUSIONS: EczemaPred serves as a computational framework to make a personalised prediction of AD severity dynamics relevant to clinical practice. EczemaPred is available as an R package.