[Horizon scanning in preparation for future health threats: a pilot exercise conducted by the French Institute for Public Health Surveillance in 2014]. / La veille prospective, une démarche de préparation aux futures menaces de la santé publique : exercice mené à l'Institut de veille sanitaire en 2014.

Background: Health surveillance is a reactive process, with no real hindsight for dealing with signals and alerts. It may fail to detect more radical changes with a major medium-term or long-term impact on public health. To increase proactivity, the French Institute for Public Health Surveillance has opted for a prospective monitoring approach.Methods: Several steps were necessary: 1) Identification of public health determinants. 2) Identification of key variables based on a combination of determinants. Variables were classified into three groups (health event trigger factors, dissemination factors and response factors) and were submitted to future development assumptions. 3) Identification, in each of the three groups, of micro-scenarios derived from variable trends. 4) Identification of macro-scenarios, each built from the three micro-scenarios for each of the three groups. 5) Identification of issues for the future of public health.Results: The exercise identified 22 key variables, 17 micro-scenarios and 5 macro-scenarios. The topics retained relate to issues on social and territorial health inequalities, health burden, individual and collective responsibilities in terms of health, ethical aspects, emerging phenomena, 'Big data', data mining, new health technologies, interlocking of analysis scales.Conclusions: The approach presented here guides the programming of activities of a health safety agency, particularly for monitoring and surveillance. By describing possible future scenarios, health surveillance can help decision-makers to influence the context towards one or more favourable futures.

Botulism in the European Union.

Botulinum toxin was first described as a potent neurotoxin in the late eighteenth century. Currently three main distinct clinical and epidemiological botulism syndromes are described - foodborne botulism, which results from the ingestion of food contamina

Pertussis immunisation in Europe - the situation in late 1999.

The history of pertussis in European countries has clearly shown that immunisation decreases the morbidity associated with the disease. Inactivated whole cell pertussis vaccines (wP) have been used in some national vaccination programmes for over 30 years