Estimated population-level impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines against all-cause pneumonia mortality among unvaccinated age groups in five Latin American countries.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) provide strong direct protection in children, while limited data are available on their indirect effect on mortality among older age groups. This multi-country study aimed to assess the population-level impact of pediatric PCVs on all-cause pneumonia mortality among ≥5 years of age, and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases in Chile. METHODS: Demographic and mortality data from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico were collected considering the ≥ 5-year-old population, from 2000-2019, with 1,795,789 deaths due to all-cause pneumonia. IPD cases in Chile were also evaluated. Time series models were employed to evaluate changes in all-cause pneumonia deaths during the post-vaccination period, with other causes of death used as synthetic controls for unrelated temporal trends. RESULTS: No significant change in death rates due to all-cause pneumonia was detected following PCV introduction among most age groups and countries. The proportion of IPD cases caused by vaccine serotypes decreased from 29% (2012) to 6% (2022) among ≥65 years in Chile. DISCUSSION: While an effect of PCV against pneumonia deaths (a broad clinical definition that may not be specific enough to measure indirect effects) was not detected, evidence of indirect PCV impact was observed among vaccine-type-specific IPD cases.

Equity throughout the life course and the evolving role of the Pan American Health Organization.

The objective of this article is to summarize the evolution of the regional commitments of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) on health promotion and strategies to improve the health and well-being of women, children, adolescents, and older persons. PAHO regional strategies approved by Member States in the last 20 years are used as the main source of information. The article presents the challenges of making health promotion a public health strategy widely applied in the Region of the Americas and the efforts to renew Member States' collective actions. The article also describes current PAHO efforts to include the positive aspects of health (i.e., well-being, optimal development, and functional ability) and the life course approach as opportunities to advance equity. The article reflects on immunization as a public good and the urgency to address the current challenges as a core element of the regional efforts to transform health systems after more than two years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

El objetivo de este artículo es resumir la evolución de los compromisos regionales de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud (OPS) en materia de promoción de la salud y estrategias para mejorar la salud y el bienestar de mujeres, niños y niñas, adolescentes y personas mayores. Se han empleado como principal fuente de información las estrategias regionales de la OPS aprobadas por los Estados Miembros en los últimos 20 años. En el artículo se presentan los desafíos de convertir la promoción de la salud en una estrategia de salud pública de amplia ejecución en la Región de las Américas y los esfuerzos para renovar las medidas colectivas de los Estados Miembros. Asimismo, se describe la labor actual de la OPS para incluir los aspectos positivos de la salud (como el bienestar, el desarrollo óptimo y la capacidad funcional) y el enfoque del curso de vida como oportunidades para fomentar la equidad. Finalmente, se reflexiona sobre la inmunización como bien público y la urgencia de abordar los desafíos actuales como elemento central de los esfuerzos regionales para transformar los sistemas de salud tras más de dos años de pandemia de COVID-19.

O objetivo deste artigo é resumir a evolução dos compromissos regionais da Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde (OPAS) relativos à promoção da saúde e estratégias para melhorar a saúde e o bem-estar de mulheres, crianças, adolescentes e pessoas idosas. As estratégias regionais da OPAS aprovadas pelos Estados Membros nos últimos 20 anos são a principal fonte de informação. O artigo apresenta os desafios enfrentados para fazer da promoção da saúde uma estratégia de saúde pública amplamente aplicada na Região das Américas e os esforços para renovar as ações coletivas dos Estados Membros. O artigo também descreve os atuais esforços da OPAS para incluir os aspectos positivos da saúde (isto é, bem-estar, desenvolvimento ideal e habilidade funcional) e a abordagem de curso da vida como oportunidades para promover a equidade. O artigo faz reflexões sobre a imunização como um bem público e a urgência de abordar os desafios atuais como um elemento central dos esforços regionais para transformar os sistemas de saúde após mais de dois anos da pandemia de COVID-19.

Effectiveness of Pneumococcal Vaccines on Otitis Media in Children: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine the effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccines on otitis media (OM) and acute otitis media (AOM) in children. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search in databases PubMed (MEDLINE), Embase, Lilacs, and Web of Science. We included observational studies that evaluated any pneumococcal vaccine - including 7, 10, and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV7, PCV10, and PCV13) and 23-valent polysaccharide vaccines (PPSV23) as the intervention, in children aged less than five years. RESULTS: Out of the 2112 screened studies, 48 observational studies complied with the eligibility criteria and therefore were included in this review. Of the included studies, 30 (63%) were before-after, eleven (23%) cohort, six (13%) time series, and one (2%) case-control study designs. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing OM or AOM varied by vaccine type. In children under 24 months VE ranged from 8% and 42.7% (PCV7), 5.6% to 84% (PCV10) and 2.2% to 68% (PCV13). In children aged less than 60 months, VE ranged between 13.2% and 39% for PCV7, 11% to 39% for PCV10 (only children under 48 months), and 39% to 41% (PCV13). CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate significant effect of pneumococcal vaccination in decreasing OM or AOM in children under five years old in several countries supporting the public health value of introducing PCVs in national immunization programs.

Accuracy of rapid point-of-care serological tests for leprosy diagnosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease, still endemic in many countries that may lead to neurological, ophthalmic, and motor sequelae if not treated early. Access to timely diagnosis and multidrug therapy (MDT) remains a crucial element in the World Health Organization's strategy to eliminate the disease as a public health problem. OBJECTIVES: This systematic review aims to evaluate the accuracy of rapid point-of-care (POC) tests for diagnosis of leprosy. METHODS: Searches were carried out in electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE, CRD, Cochrane Library and LILACS) in April 2021 for patients with suspicion or confirmatory diagnostic of leprosy, classified in multibacillary (MB) or paucibacillary (PB) cases, performing rapid POC serological tests compared to clinical evaluation, smear microscopy and immunohistochemistry analysis. Methodological quality was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool (QUADAS-2). A meta-analysis was undertaken to generate pooled estimates of diagnostic parameters, presenting sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) values. The review protocol was registered at PROSPERO, CRD # 42014009658. FINDINGS: From 893 potentially relevant references, 12 articles were included reporting 16 diagnostic tests accuracy studies with 5395 individuals enrolled. Meta-analysis of NDO-LID and PGL-I tests data in MB patients showed sensitivity and specificity [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 0.83 (0.71-0.91), 0.91 (0.72-0.97); and 0.92 (0.86-0.96), 0.93 (0.78-0.98); respectively, with high heterogeneity among the studies. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our results can inform policymakers regarding the possibility of implementing accurate, rapid POC tests for leprosy in public health services, especially within primary health care.

Declines in Pneumonia Mortality Following the Introduction of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines in Latin American and Caribbean Countries.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are recommended for use in pediatric immunization programs worldwide. Few data are available on their effect against mortality. We present a multicountry evaluation of the population-level impact of PCVs against death due to pneumonia in children < 5 years of age. METHODS: We obtained national-level mortality data between 2000 and 2016 from 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries, using the standardized protocol. Time series models were used to evaluate the decline in all-cause pneumonia deaths during the postvaccination period while controlling for unrelated temporal trends using control causes of death. RESULTS: The estimated declines in pneumonia mortality following the introduction of PCVs ranged from 11% to 35% among children aged 2-59 months in 5 countries: Colombia (24% [95% credible interval {CrI}, 3%-35%]), Ecuador (25% [95% CrI, 4%-41%]), Mexico (11% [95% CrI, 3%-18%]), Nicaragua (19% [95% CrI, 0-34%]), and Peru (35% [95% CrI, 20%-47%]). In Argentina, Brazil, and the Dominican Republic, the declines were not detected in the aggregated age group but were detected in certain age strata. In Guyana and Honduras, the estimates had large uncertainty, and no declines were detected. Across the 10 countries, most of which have low to moderate incidence of pneumonia mortality, PCVs have prevented nearly 4500 all-cause pneumonia deaths in children 2-59 months since introduction. CONCLUSIONS: Although the data quality was variable between countries, and the patterns varied across countries and age groups, the balance of evidence suggests that mortality due to all-cause pneumonia in children declined after PCV introduction. The impact could be greater in populations with a higher prevaccine burden of pneumonia.

What Pertussis Mortality Rates Make Maternal Acellular Pertussis Immunization Cost-Effective in Low- and Middle-Income Countries? A Decision Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite longstanding infant vaccination programs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), pertussis continues to cause deaths in the youngest infants. A maternal monovalent acellular pertussis (aP) vaccine, in development, could prevent many of these deaths. We estimated infant pertussis mortality rates at which maternal vaccination would be a cost-effective use of public health resources in LMICs. METHODS: We developed a decision model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of maternal aP immunization plus routine infant vaccination vs routine infant vaccination alone in Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Brazil. For a range of maternal aP vaccine prices, one-way sensitivity analyses identified the infant pertussis mortality rates required to make maternal immunization cost-effective by alternative benchmarks ($100, 0.5 gross domestic product [GDP] per capita, and GDP per capita per disability-adjusted life-year [DALY]). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis provided uncertainty intervals for these mortality rates. RESULTS: Infant pertussis mortality rates necessary to make maternal aP immunization cost-effective exceed the rates suggested by current evidence except at low vaccine prices and/or cost-effectiveness benchmarks at the high end of those considered in this report. For example, at a vaccine price of $0.50/dose, pertussis mortality would need to be 0.051 per 1000 infants in Bangladesh, and 0.018 per 1000 in Nigeria, to cost 0.5 per capita GDP per DALY. In Brazil, a middle-income country, at a vaccine price of $4/dose, infant pertussis mortality would need to be 0.043 per 1000 to cost 0.5 per capita GDP per DALY. CONCLUSIONS: For commonly used cost-effectiveness benchmarks, maternal aP immunization would be cost-effective in many LMICs only if the vaccine were offered at less than $1-$2/dose.

Identification of Serologic Markers for School-Aged Children With Congenital Rubella Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) case identification is challenging in older children since laboratory markers of congenital rubella virus (RUBV) infection do not persist beyond age 12 months. METHODS: We enrolled children with CRS born between 1998 and 2003 and compared their immune responses to RUBV with those of their mothers and a group of similarly aged children without CRS. Demographic data and sera were collected. Sera were tested for anti-RUBV immunoglobulin G (IgG), IgG avidity, and IgG response to the 3 viral structural proteins (E1, E2, and C), reflected by immunoblot fluorescent signals. RESULTS: We enrolled 32 children with CRS, 31 mothers, and 62 children without CRS. The immunoblot signal strength to C and the ratio of the C signal to the RUBV-specific IgG concentration were higher (P < .029 for both) and the ratio of the E1 signal to the RUBV-specific IgG concentration lower (P = .001) in children with CRS, compared with their mothers. Compared with children without CRS, children with CRS had more RUBV-specific IgG (P < .001), a stronger C signal (P < .001), and a stronger E2 signal (P ≤ .001). Two classification rules for children with versus children without CRS gave 100% specificity with >65% sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS: This study was the first to establish classification rules for identifying CRS in school-aged children, using laboratory biomarkers. These biomarkers should allow improved burden of disease estimates and monitoring of CRS control programs.

Impact of Kasai portoenterostomy on liver transplantation outcomes: A retrospective cohort study of 347 children with biliary atresia.

Biliary atresia (BA) is the main diagnosis leading to liver transplantation (LT) in children. When diagnosed early in life, a Kasai portoenterostomy (Kasai-PE) can prevent or postpone LT. Instances of previous operations can result in difficulties during the LT. We hypothesized that a previous Kasai-PE could affect LT outcomes. A retrospective cohort study of 347 BA patients submitted to LT between 1995 and 2013 at Hospital Sírio-Libanês and A. C. Camargo Cancer Center was conducted. Patients were divided into those with a previous Kasai portoenterostomy early failure (K-EF), Kasai portoenterostomy late failure (K-LF), and those with no Kasai portoenterostomy (No-K). Primary outcomes were patient and graft survival. A total of 94 (27.1%) patients had a K-EF, 115 (33.1%) had a K-LF, and 138 (39.8%) had No-K before LT. Children in the K-LF group were older and had lower Pediatric End-Stage Liver Disease (PELD) scores. Patients in both K-EF and K-LF groups had more post-LT biliary complications. After Cox-multivariate analysis adjusting for confounding factors to determine the influence of Kasai-PE on patient and graft survival, the K-LF group had an 84% less probability of dying and a 55% less chance to undergo retransplantation. The K-LF group had a protective effect on posttransplant patient and graft survival. When properly performed, the Kasai procedure can postpone LT and positively affect outcomes. Having a K-EF and having not performed a Kasai-PE had the same effect in patient and graft survival; however, a previous Kasai-PE can increase post-LT complications as biliary complications and bowel perforations.

Rubella virus genotype 1G and echovirus 9 as etiologic agents of exanthematous diseases in Brazil: insights from phylogenetic analysis.

The aim of the present study was to identify the rubella virus (RV) and enterovirus (EV) genotypes detected during the Epidemiological Surveillance on Exanthematic Febrile Diseases (VIGIFEX) study and to perform phylogenetic analysis. Ten RV- and four EV-positive oropharyngeal samples isolated from cell culture were subjected to RT-PCR and sequencing. Genotype 1G and echovirus 9 (E-9) was identified in RV- and EV-positive samples, respectively. The RV 1G genotype has been persisting in Brazil since 2000-2001. No evidence of E-9 being involved in exanthematic illness in Brazil has been reported previously. Differential laboratory diagnosis is essential for management of rash and fever disease.

Sepsis-related deaths in Brazil: an analysis of the national mortality registry from 2002 to 2010.

INTRODUCTION: Limited population-based epidemiologic information about sepsis' demography, including its mortality and temporal changes is available from developing countries. We investigated the epidemiology of sepsis deaths in Brazil using secondary data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System. METHODS: Retrospective descriptive analysis of Brazilian multiple-cause-of-death data between 2002 and 2010, with sepsis-associated International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) code indicated as the cause of death. Population-based sepsis associated mortality rates and trends were estimated. Annual population-based mortality rates were calculated using age-stratified population estimates from the 2010 census provided by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics as denominators. RESULTS: The total number of annual deaths recorded in Brazil increased over the decade, from 982,294 deaths reported in 2002 to 1,133,761 deaths reported in 2010. The number of sepsis associated deaths also increased both in absolute numbers and proportions from 95,972 (9.77% of total deaths) in 2002 to 186,712 deaths (16.46%) in 2010. The age-adjusted rate of sepsis-associated mortality increased from 69.5 deaths per 100,000 to 97.8 deaths per 100,000 population from 2002 to 2010 (P < 0.001). Sepsis-associated mortality was higher in individuals older than 60 years of age as compared to subjects aged 0 to 20 years (adjusted rate ratio 15.7 (95% confidence interval (CI) 15.6 to 15.8)) and in male subjects (1.15 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.16)). CONCLUSIONS: Between 2002 and 2010 the contribution of sepsis to all cause mortality as reported in multiple-cause-of-death forms increased significantly in Brazil. Age-adjusted mortality rates by sepsis also increased in the last decade. Our results confirm the importance of sepsis as a significant healthcare issue in Brazil.

Maternal and perinatal health research during emerging and ongoing epidemic threats: a landscape analysis and expert consultation.

INTRODUCTION: Pregnant women and their offspring are often at increased direct and indirect risks of adverse outcomes during epidemics and pandemics. A coordinated research response is paramount to ensure that this group is offered at least the same level of disease prevention, diagnosis, and care as the general population. We conducted a landscape analysis and held expert consultations to identify research efforts relevant to pregnant women affected by disease outbreaks, highlight gaps and challenges, and propose solutions to addressing them in a coordinated manner. METHODS: Literature searches were conducted from 1 January 2015 to 22 March 2022 using Web of Science, Google Scholar and PubMed augmented by key informant interviews. Findings were reviewed and Quid analysis was performed to identify clusters and connectors across research networks followed by two expert consultations. These formed the basis for the development of an operational framework for maternal and perinatal research during epidemics. RESULTS: Ninety-four relevant research efforts were identified. Although well suited to generating epidemiological data, the entire infrastructure to support a robust research response remains insufficient, particularly for use of medical products in pregnancy. Limitations in global governance, coordination, funding and data-gathering systems have slowed down research responses. CONCLUSION: Leveraging current research efforts while engaging multinational and regional networks may be the most effective way to scale up maternal and perinatal research preparedness and response. The findings of this landscape analysis and proposed operational framework will pave the way for developing a roadmap to guide coordination efforts, facilitate collaboration and ultimately promote rapid access to countermeasures and clinical care for pregnant women and their offspring in future epidemics.

The Full Value of Vaccine Assessments Concept-Current Opportunities and Recommendations.

For vaccine development and adoption decisions, the 'Full Value of Vaccine Assessment' (FVVA) framework has been proposed by the WHO to expand the range of evidence available to support the prioritization of candidate vaccines for investment and eventual uptake by low- and middle-income countries. Recent applications of the FVVA framework have already shown benefits. Building on the success of these applications, we see important new opportunities to maximize the future utility of FVVAs to country and global stakeholders and provide a proof-of-concept for analyses in other areas of disease control and prevention. These opportunities include the following: (1) FVVA producers should aim to create evidence that explicitly meets the needs of multiple key FVVA consumers, (2) the WHO and other key stakeholders should develop standardized methodologies for FVVAs, as well as guidance for how different stakeholders can explicitly reflect their values within the FVVA framework, and (3) the WHO should convene experts to further develop and prioritize the research agenda for outcomes and benefits relevant to the FVVA and elucidate methodological approaches and opportunities for standardization not only for less well-established benefits, but also for any relevant research gaps. We encourage FVVA stakeholders to engage with these opportunities.

Effect of 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine on pneumonia among children, Brazil.

Pneumonia is most problematic for children in developing countries. In 2010, Brazil introduced a 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) to its National Immunization Program. To assess the vaccine's effectiveness for preventing pneumonia, we analyzed rates of hospitalization among children 2-24 months of age who had pneumonia from all causes from January 2005 through August 2011. We used data from the National Hospitalization Information System to conduct an interrupted time-series analysis for 5 cities in Brazil that had good data quality and high PCV10 vaccination coverage. Of the 197,975 hospitalizations analyzed, 30% were for pneumonia. Significant declines in hospitalizations for pneumonia were noted in Belo Horizonte (28.7%), Curitiba (23.3%), and Recife (27.4%) but not in São Paulo and Porto Alegre. However, in the latter 2 cities, vaccination coverage was less than that in the former 3. Overall, 1 year after introduction of PCV10, hospitalizations of children for pneumonia were reduced.

The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in Latin America, 2021: a multicenter regional case-control study.

Background: As of September 2022, nearly 1.3 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine products have been administered in Latin America and the Caribbean, where 27% of global COVID-19 deaths have occurred. This study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against lab-confirmed COVID-19 related hospitalizations and deaths among adults in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia. Methods: Using a test-negative case control design, we evaluated the effectiveness of a primary vaccination series considering six COVID-19 vaccine products (Sputnik V, mRNA-1273, CoronaVac, ChAdOx1, BNT162b2, Ad26.COV2.S) against lab-confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths among 83,708 hospitalized adults from February-December, 2021. Data from hospitalization records, COVID surveillance, and vaccination registries were used. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated using logistic regression ((1-OR) x 100). Findings: The average age of participants was 56.7 (SD = 17.5), and 45,894 (54.8%) were male. Adjusted VE (aVE) estimates for full vaccination against hospitalization were 82% for mRNA-1273 (95% confidence interval (CI) = -30 to 98%), 76% (71%-81%) for BNT162b2, 65% (61-68%) for ChAdOx1, 57% (10-79%) for Sputnik V, 53% (50-56%) for CoronaVac, and 46% (23-62%) for Ad26.COV2.S. Estimates, particularly for CoronaVac, varied by variant. Decreasing aVE was estimated as age increased, particularly for CoronaVac and ChAdOx1. aVE estimates against death were generally higher, with 100% (CI not estimated) for mRNA-1273, 82% (69-90%) for BNT162b2, 73% (69-77%) for ChAdOx1, 65% (60-67%) for CoronaVac, 38% (-75 to 78%) for Sputnik V, 6% (-58 to 44%) for Ad26.COV2.S. Interpretation: Primary series vaccination with available COVID-19 vaccine products was effective against COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality. Effectiveness varied by product and declined with increasing age. Funding: This study was funded by the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO, World Health Organization (WHO)). PAHO convened and led the study implementation.

Dynamic transmission modeling of COVID-19 to support decision-making in Brazil: A scoping review in the pre-vaccine era.

Brazil was one of the countries most affected during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, in a pre-vaccine era, and mathematical and statistical models were used in decision-making and public policies to mitigate and suppress SARS-CoV-2 dispersion. In this article, we intend to overview the modeling for COVID-19 in Brazil, focusing on the first 18 months of the pandemic. We conducted a scoping review and searched for studies on infectious disease modeling methods in peer-reviewed journals and gray literature, published between January 01, 2020, and June 2, 2021, reporting real-world or scenario-based COVID-19 modeling for Brazil. We included 81 studies, most corresponding to published articles produced in Brazilian institutions. The models were dynamic and deterministic in the majority. The predominant model type was compartmental, but other models were also found. The main modeling objectives were to analyze epidemiological scenarios (testing interventions' effectiveness) and to project short and long-term predictions, while few articles performed economic impact analysis. Estimations of the R0 and transmission rates or projections regarding the course of the epidemic figured as major, especially at the beginning of the crisis. However, several other outputs were forecasted, such as the isolation/quarantine effect on transmission, hospital facilities required, secondary cases caused by infected children, and the economic effects of the pandemic. This study reveals numerous articles with shared objectives and similar methods and data sources. We observed a deficiency in addressing social inequities in the Brazilian context within the utilized models, which may also be expected in several low- and middle-income countries with significant social disparities. We conclude that the models were of great relevance in the pandemic scenario of COVID-19. Nevertheless, efforts could be better planned and executed with improved institutional organization, dialogue among research groups, increased interaction between modelers and epidemiologists, and establishment of a sustainable cooperation network.

Modeling the impact of child vaccination (5-11 y) on overall COVID-19 related hospitalizations and mortality in a context of omicron variant predominance and different vaccination coverage paces in Brazil.

Background: Developing countries have experienced significant COVID-19 disease burden. With the emergence of new variants, particularly omicron, the disease burden in children has increased. When the first COVID-19 vaccine was approved for use in children aged 5-11 years of age, very few countries recommended vaccination due to limited risk-benefit evidence for vaccination of this population. In Brazil, ranking second in the global COVID-19 death toll, the childhood COVID-19 disease burden increased significantly in early 2022. This prompted a risk-benefit assessment of the introduction and scaling-up of COVID-19 vaccination of children. Methods: To estimate the potential impact of vaccinating children aged 5-11 years with mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine in the context of omicron dominance, we developed a discrete-time SEIR-like model stratified in age groups, considering a three-month time horizon. We considered three scenarios: No vaccination, slow, and maximum vaccination paces. In each scenario, we estimated the potential reduction in total COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, hospitalization costs, and potential years of life lost, considering the absence of vaccination as the base-case scenario. Findings: We estimated that vaccinating at a maximum pace could prevent, between mid-January and April 2022, about 26,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations, and 4200 deaths in all age groups; of which 5400 hospitalizations and 410 deaths in children aged 5-11 years. Continuing vaccination at a slow/current pace would prevent 1450 deaths and 9700 COVID-19 hospitalizations in all age groups in this same time period; of which 180 deaths and 2390 hospitalizations in children only. Interpretation: Maximum vaccination of children results in a significant reduction of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths and should be enforced in developing countries with significant disease incidence in children. Funding: This manuscript was funded by the Brazilian Council for Scientific and Technology Development (CNPq - Process # 402834/2020-8).

Historical analysis of birth cohorts not vaccinated against rubella prior to national rubella vaccination campaign, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Brazil conducted mass rubella vaccination campaigns to meet disease elimination goals by 2010. An analysis of rubella vaccination opportunities was conducted to target population groups with concentrations of unvaccinated individuals. METHODS: Rubella vaccination strategies for all 27 states were reviewed between 1992 and 2006. Yearly vaccination coverage was calculated by dividing number of doses of measles-rubella or measles-mumps-rubella vaccines administered by census estimates of target populations. For annual birth cohorts (1967-2005), percentages of persons not vaccinated prior to 2007 were estimated by subtracting the highest coverage obtained in any vaccination strategy (routine or campaign) from 100%. Cohort analysis results were compared with rubella incidence by population group. RESULTS: An estimated 28.9 million males and 7.7 million females aged 2-40 years in 2007 remained unvaccinated against rubella, corresponding to 43.0% of males and 11.5% of females of these ages in Brazil. The highest percentages of unvaccinated birth cohorts (93.6%-98.1%) were identified among males aged 26-40 years. In rubella outbreaks reported during 2007, the highest disease incidence (22 cases per 100000 population) occurred among males aged 20-29 years. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of rubella vaccination opportunities identified concentrations of unvaccinated adults and adolescents for targeting mass vaccination to eliminate rubella and congenital rubella syndrome in Brazil.

Etiologies of rash and fever illnesses in Campinas, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Few population-based studies of infectious etiologies of fever-rash illnesses have been conducted. This study reports on enhanced febrile-rash illness surveillance in Campinas, Brazil, a setting of low measles and rubella virus transmission. METHODS: Cases of febrile-rash illnesses in individuals aged <40 years that occurred during the period 1 May 2003-30 May 2004 were reported. Blood samples were collected for laboratory diagnostic confirmation, which included testing for adenovirus, dengue virus, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), enterovirus, human herpes virus 6 (HHV6), measles virus, parvovirus-B19, Rickettsia rickettsii, rubella virus, and group A streptococci (GAS) infections. Notification rates were compared with the prestudy period. RESULTS: A total of 1248 cases were notified, of which 519 (42%) had laboratory diagnosis. Of these, HHV-6 (312 cases), EBV (66 cases), parvovirus (30 cases), rubella virus (30 cases), and GAS (30 cases) were the most frequent causes of infection. Only 10 rubella cases met the rubella clinical case definition currently in use. Notification rates were higher during the study than in the prestudy period (181 vs 52.3 cases per 100,000 population aged <40 years). CONCLUSIONS: Stimulating a passive surveillance system enhanced its sensitivity and resulted in additional rubella cases detected. In settings with rubella elimination goals, rubella testing may be considered for all cases of febrile-rash illness, regardless of suspected clinical diagnosis.

Follow-up study of unknowingly pregnant women vaccinated against rubella in Brazil, 2001-2002.

BACKGROUND: Brazil conducted mass immunization of women of childbearing age in 2001 and 2002. Surveillance was initiated for vaccination of women during pregnancy to monitor the effects of rubella vaccination on fetal outcomes. METHODS: Women vaccinated while pregnant or prior to conception were reported to the surveillance system. Susceptibility to rubella infection was determined by anti-rubella immunoglobulin (Ig) M and IgG immunoassays. Susceptible women were observed through delivery. Live-born infants were tested for anti-rubella IgM antibody; IgM-seropositive newborns were tested for viral shedding and observed for 12 months for signs of congenital rubella syndrome. Incidence of congenital rubella infection was calculated using data from 7 states. RESULTS: A total of 22 708 cases of rubella vaccination during pregnancy or prior to conception were reported nationwide, 20,536 (90%) of which were from 7 of 27 states in Brazil. Of these, 2332 women were susceptible to rubella infection at vaccination. Sixty-seven (4.1%) of 1647 newborns had rubella IgM antibody (incidence rate, 4.1 congenital infections per 100 susceptible women vaccinated during pregnancy [95% confidence interval, 3.2-5.1]). None of the infants infected with rubella vaccine virus was born with congenital rubella syndrome. CONCLUSIONS: As rubella elimination goals are adopted worldwide, evidence of rubella vaccine safety aids in planning and implementation of mass adult immunization.

Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from the 27 Brazilian states.

BACKGROUND: Despite substantial evidence on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), there is still limited evidence on the individual effects of different types of NPIs on social distancing, especially in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: We used panel data analysis to evaluate the effects of mandatory social distancing rules on social distancing. We obtained data on six different categories of mandatory restrictions implemented in Brazil, by date and state, from state government gazettes (diários oficiais). We then defined a social distancing rules index (SDI) to measure the strictness of social distancing rules, assigning each a value of 2, 1, or 0 depending on whether restrictions were full, partial, or very limited/non-existent at every given time. A separate variable was defined for masking mandates. We tested whether the following variables were associated to social distancing: SDI, masking mandates, COVID-19 incidence, population socioeconomic status, and political orientation. Data is for each day between March 11th and November 10th, 2020 in the 27 Brazilian states (N = 6615). FINDINGS: Social distancing increased when social distancing rules were stricter, and decreased when the use of face masks became mandatory. The effects of different types of restrictions varied: suspending in-person classes and gatherings, religious/sport/cultural activities had a greater effect than other types of restrictions. Also, the effect of social distancing rules on people's behaviour decreased over time, especially when rules were stricter. INTERPRETATION: Mandatory social distancing rules must be adopted to increase social distancing. Stricter rules have a higher impact, but result in decreased compliance over time. Policymakers should prioritize more targeted policies.