Sex-specific demography and generalization of the Trivers-Willard theory.

The Trivers-Willard theory proposes that the sex ratio of offspring should vary with maternal condition when it has sex-specific influences on offspring fitness. In particular, mothers in good condition in polygynous and dimorphic species are predicted to produce an excess of sons, whereas mothers in poor condition should do the opposite. Despite the elegance of the theory, support for it has been limited. Here we extend and generalize the Trivers-Willard theory to explain the disparity between predictions and observations of offspring sex ratio. In polygynous species, males typically have higher mortality rates, different age-specific reproductive schedules and more risk-prone life history tactics than females; however, these differences are not currently incorporated into the Trivers-Willard theory. Using two-sex models parameterized with data from free-living mammal populations with contrasting levels of sex differences in demography, we demonstrate how sex differences in life history traits over the entire lifespan can lead to a wide range of sex allocation tactics, and show that correlations between maternal condition and offspring sex ratio alone are insufficient to conclude that mothers adaptively adjust offspring sex ratio.

Demography, not inheritance, drives phenotypic change in hunted bighorn sheep.

Selective harvest, such as trophy hunting, can shift the distribution of a quantitative character such as body size. If the targeted character is heritable, then there will be an evolutionary response to selection, and where the trait is not, then any response will be plastic or demographic. Identifying the relative contributions of these different mechanisms is a major challenge in wildlife conservation. New mathematical approaches can provide insight not previously available. Here we develop a size- and age-based two-sex integral projection model based on individual-based data from a long-term study of hunted bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) at Ram Mountain, Canada. We simulate the effect of trophy hunting on body size and find that the inheritance of body mass is weak and that any perceived decline in body mass of the bighorn population is largely attributable to demographic change and environmental factors. To our knowledge, this work provides the first use of two-sex integral projection models to investigate the potential eco-evolutionary consequences of selective harvest.

Can we use a functional trait to construct a generalized model for ungulate populations?

Ecologists have long desired predictive models that allow inference on population dynamics, where detailed demographic data are unavailable. Integral projection models (IPMs) allow both demographic and phenotypic outcomes at the level of the population to be predicted from the distribution of a functional trait, like body mass. In species where body mass markedly influences demographic rates, as is the rule among mammals, then IPMs provide not only opportunity to assess the population responses to a given environment, but also improve our understanding of the complex interplay between traits and demographic outcomes. Here, we develop a body-mass-based approach to constructing generalized, predictive IPMs for species of ungulates covering a broad range of body size (25-400 kg). Despite our best efforts, we found that a reliable and general, functional, trait-based model for ungulates was unattainable even after accounting for among-species variation in both age at first reproduction and litter size. We attribute this to the diversity of reproductive tactics among similar-sized species of ungulates, and to the interplay between density-dependent and environmental factors that shape demographic parameters independent of mass at the local scale. These processes thus drive population dynamics and cannot be ignored. Environmental context generally matters in population ecology, and our study shows this may be the case for functional traits in vertebrate populations.

Mechanisms driving change: altered species interactions and ecosystem function through global warming.

1. We review the mechanisms behind ecosystem functions, the processes that facilitate energy transfer along food webs, and the major processes that allow the cycling of carbon, oxygen and nitrogen, and use case studies to show how these have already been, and will continue to be, altered by global warming. 2. Increased temperatures will affect the interactions between heterotrophs and autotrophs (e.g. pollination and seed dispersal), and between heterotrophs (e.g. predators-prey, parasites/pathogens-hosts), with generally negative ramifications for important ecosystem services (functions that provide direct benefit to human society such as pollination) and potential for heightened species co-extinction rates. 3. Mitigation of likely impacts of warming will require, in particular, the maintenance of species diversity as insurance for the provision of basic ecosystem services. Key to this will be long-term monitoring and focused research that seek to maintain ecosystem resilience in the face of global warming. 4. We provide guidelines for pursuing research that quantifies the nexus between ecosystem function and global warming. These include documentation of key functional species groups within systems, and understanding the principal outcomes arising from direct and indirect effects of a rapidly warming environment. Localized and targeted research and monitoring, complemented with laboratory work, will determine outcomes for resilience and guide adaptive conservation responses and long-term planning.

Minimum viable population sizes and global extinction risk are unrelated.

Theoretical and empirical work has shown that once reduced in size and geographical range, species face a considerably elevated risk of extinction. We predict minimum viable population sizes (MVP) for 1198 species based on long-term time-series data and model-averaged population dynamics simulations. The median MVP estimate was 1377 individuals (90% probability of persistence over 100 years) but the overall distribution was wide and strongly positively skewed. Factors commonly cited as correlating with extinction risk failed to predict MVP but were able to predict successfully the probability of World Conservation Union Listing. MVPs were most strongly related to local environmental variation rather than a species' intrinsic ecological and life history attributes. Further, the large variation in MVP across species is unrelated to (or at least dwarfed by) the anthropogenic threats that drive the global biodiversity crisis by causing once-abundant species to decline.