Wolf Delisting Challenges Demonstrate Need for an Improved Framework for Conserving Intraspecific Variation under the Endangered Species Act.

Recent advances in genomics have increased our understanding of geographic patterns of intraspecific variation and the importance of this variation in enhancing species' potential to adapt to novel threats. However, as part of an effort to limit the scope of the Endangered Species Act (ESA), the US government has proposed the removal of the gray wolf from the list of protected species on the basis of a claim that the statute permits a species to be declared recovered given the existence of a single presently secure population. We rebut this interpretation and propose a framework for the conservation of adaptive potential that builds on current agency practice in delineating subspecific recovery units and reconciles the definition of significance in the statute's "distinct population segment" and "significant portion of range" clauses. Such a coordinated policy would enhance the ESA's effectiveness in stemming loss of biodiversity in the face of climate change and other factors altering Earth's ecosystems.

Carnivore conservation needs evidence-based livestock protection.

Carnivore predation on livestock often leads people to retaliate. Persecution by humans has contributed strongly to global endangerment of carnivores. Preventing livestock losses would help to achieve three goals common to many human societies: preserve nature, protect animal welfare, and safeguard human livelihoods. Between 2016 and 2018, four independent reviews evaluated >40 years of research on lethal and nonlethal interventions for reducing predation on livestock. From 114 studies, we find a striking conclusion: scarce quantitative comparisons of interventions and scarce comparisons against experimental controls preclude strong inference about the effectiveness of methods. For wise investment of public resources in protecting livestock and carnivores, evidence of effectiveness should be a prerequisite to policy making or large-scale funding of any method or, at a minimum, should be measured during implementation. An appropriate evidence base is needed, and we recommend a coalition of scientists and managers be formed to establish and encourage use of consistent standards in future experimental evaluations.

Large carnivore hunting and the social license to hunt.

The social license to operate framework considers how society grants or withholds informal permission for resource extractors to exploit publicly owned resources. We developed a modified model, which we refer to as the social license to hunt (SLH). In it we similarly consider hunters as operators, given that wildlife are legally considered public resources in North America and Europe. We applied the SLH model to examine the controversial hunting of large carnivores, which are frequently killed for trophies. Killing for trophies is widespread, but undertaken by a minority of hunters, and can pose threats to the SLH for trophy-seeking carnivore hunters and potentially beyond. Societal opposition to large carnivore hunting relates not only to conservation concerns but also to misalignment between killing for trophies and dominant public values and attitudes concerning the treatment of animals. We summarized cases related to the killing of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), wolves (Canis lupus), and other large carnivores in Canada, the United States, and Europe to illustrate how opposition to large carnivore hunting, now expressed primarily on social media, can exert rapid and significant pressure on policy makers and politicians. Evidence of the potential for transformative change to wildlife management and conservation includes proposed and realized changes to legislation, business practice, and wildlife policy, including the banning of some large carnivore hunts. Given that policy is ultimately shaped by societal values and attitudes, research gaps include developing increased insight into public support of various hunting policies beyond that derived from monitoring of social media and public polling. Informed by increased evidence, the SLH model can provide a conceptual foundation for predicting the likelihood of transient versus enduring changes to wildlife conservation policy and practice for a wide variety of taxa and contexts.

Cacería de Grandes Carnívoros y la Licencia Social para Cazar Resumen El marco de trabajo de la licencia social para operar considera cómo la sociedad otorga o restringe permisos informales para que los extractores de recursos puedan explotar los recursos públicos. Desarrollamos un modelo modificado, al cual nos referimos como la licencia social para cazar (LSC). En este modelo consideramos a los cazadores como símiles de los operadores puesto que en América del Norte y en Europa a la fauna se le considera legalmente como recurso público. Aplicamos el modelo de la LSC en un análisis de la cacería controversial de grandes carnívoros, a los cuales con frecuencia se les caza para convertirlos en trofeos. La cacería para trofeos es común pero sólo la realiza una minoría de los cazadores y puede presentar una amenaza para la LSC para los cazadores que cazan carnívoros para trofeos e incluso para otros tipos de cazadores. La oposición social a la cacería de grandes carnívoros se relaciona no sólo con el interés de conservación sino también con la discordancia entre la caza para trofeos y las actitudes y valores públicos dominantes con respecto al trato hacia los animales. Resumimos algunos casos relacionados con la muerte de osos pardos (Ursus arctos), lobos (Canis lupus) y otros grandes carnívoros en Canadá, los Estados Unidos y Europa para mostrar cómo la oposición a la cacería de grandes carnívoros, hoy en día expresada principalmente en las redes sociales, puede ejercer una presión rápida y significativa sobre los políticos y los formuladores de políticas. La evidencia de un potencial de cambio transformador en el manejo y conservación de fauna incluye los cambios propuestos y realizados a la legislación, la práctica comercial y las políticas para la fauna, incluyendo la prohibición de la caza de algunos grandes carnívoros. Ya que las políticas están finalmente moldeadas por las actitudes y los valores sociales, las lagunas en la investigación incluyen el desarrollo de un conocimiento mejorado del respaldo público para varias políticas de cacería más allá del conocimiento derivado del monitoreo de las redes sociales y las encuestas públicas. Si se informa con mucha más evidencia, el modelo de la LSC puede proporcionar una base conceptual para predecir la probabilidad de los cambios transitorios versus los duraderos en las políticas y las prácticas de conservación de fauna para una gama amplia de taxones y contextos.

Myths and assumptions about human-wildlife conflict and coexistence.

Recent extinctions often resulted from humans retaliating against wildlife that threatened people's interests or were perceived to threaten current or future interests. Today's subfield of human-wildlife conflict and coexistence (HWCC) grew out of an original anthropocentric concern with such real or perceived threats and then, starting in the mid-1990s, with protecting valued species from people. Recent work in ethics and law has shifted priorities toward coexistence between people and wild animals. To spur scientific progress and more effective practice, we examined 4 widespread assumptions about HWCC that need to be tested rigorously: scientists are neutral and objective about HWCC; current participatory, consensus-based decisions provide just and fair means to overcome challenges in HWCC; wildlife threats to human interests are getting worse; and wildlife damage to human interests is additive to other sources of damage. The first 2 assumptions are clearly testable, but if they are entangled can become a wicked problem and may need debunking as myths if they cannot be disentangled. Some assumptions have seldom or never been tested and those that have been tested appear dubious, yet the use of the assumptions continues in the practice and scholarship of HWCC. We call for tests of assumptions and debunking of myths in the scholarship of HWCC. Adherence to the principles of scientific integrity and application of standards of evidence can help advance our call. We also call for practitioners and interest groups to improve the constitutive process prior to decision making about wildlife. We predict these steps will hasten scientific progress toward evidence-based interventions and improve the fairness, ethics, and legality of coexistence strategies.

Mitos y Suposiciones sobre el Conflicto y la Coexistencia entre el Humano y la Fauna Resumen Casi todas las extinciones recientes han resultado de las represalias que los humanos han realizado en contra de la fauna que amenaza o que ha sido percibida como una amenaza para intereses humanos actuales o futuros. Hoy en día, la disciplina de conflicto y coexistencia humano - fauna (HWCC, en inglés), surgió de la original preocupación antropocéntrica por las amenazas reales o percibidas y después, a partir de mediados de la década de 1990, por la preocupación de proteger a las especies valoradas por el los humanos. Trabajos recientes de ética y leyes han modificado sus prioridades hacia la coexistencia entre las personas y la fauna silvestre. Para estimular el progreso científico y una práctica más efectiva, examinamos cuatro suposiciones generalizadas sobre el HWCC que necesitan ser evaluadas rigurosamente: los científicos son neutrales y objetivos con el HWCC; las decisiones participativas actuales basadas en consensos proporcionan medios justos y razonables para sobreponerse a los retos del HWCC; las amenazas de la fauna hacia los intereses humanos cada vez son peores; y el daño causado por la fauna a los intereses humanos es aditivo a otras fuentes de daño. Las primeras dos suposiciones son claramente evaluables, pero si se entrelazan, pueden convertirse en un serio problema y necesitarían ser desacreditadas como mitos si no se pueden desenlazar. Algunas suposiciones nunca o rara vez han sido evaluadas y aquellas que sí lo han sido parecen ser dudosas. A pesar de esto, el uso de las suposiciones continua en la práctica y en la academia del HWCC. La adhesión a los principios de integridad científica y la aplicación de estándares de evidencia pueden ayudar a promover nuestra petición. También hacemos un llamado a los practicantes y a los grupos de interés para que mejoren el proceso constitutivo previo a la toma de decisiones sobre la fauna. Pronosticamos que estos pasos a seguir apresurarán el progreso científico hacia intervenciones basadas en evidencia y mejorarán la imparcialidad, ética y legalidad de las estrategias de coexistencia.

Defending the scientific integrity of conservation-policy processes.

Government agencies faced with politically controversial decisions often discount or ignore scientific information, whether from agency staff or nongovernmental scientists. Recent developments in scientific integrity (the ability to perform, use, communicate, and publish science free from censorship or political interference) in Canada, Australia, and the United States demonstrate a similar trajectory. A perceived increase in scientific-integrity abuses provokes concerted pressure by the scientific community, leading to efforts to improve scientific-integrity protections under a new administration. However, protections are often inconsistently applied and are at risk of reversal under administrations publicly hostile to evidence-based policy. We compared recent challenges to scientific integrity to determine what aspects of scientific input into conservation policy are most at risk of political distortion and what can be done to strengthen safeguards against such abuses. To ensure the integrity of outbound communications from government scientists to the public, we suggest governments strengthen scientific integrity policies, include scientists' right to speak freely in collective-bargaining agreements, guarantee public access to scientific information, and strengthen agency culture supporting scientific integrity. To ensure the transparency and integrity with which information from nongovernmental scientists (e.g., submitted comments or formal policy reviews) informs the policy process, we suggest governments broaden the scope of independent reviews, ensure greater diversity of expert input and transparency regarding conflicts of interest, require a substantive response to input from agencies, and engage proactively with scientific societies. For their part, scientists and scientific societies have a responsibility to engage with the public to affirm that science is a crucial resource for developing evidence-based policy and regulations in the public interest.

Blood does not buy goodwill: allowing culling increases poaching of a large carnivore.

Quantifying environmental crime and the effectiveness of policy interventions is difficult because perpetrators typically conceal evidence. To prevent illegal uses of natural resources, such as poaching endangered species, governments have advocated granting policy flexibility to local authorities by liberalizing culling or hunting of large carnivores. We present the first quantitative evaluation of the hypothesis that liberalizing culling will reduce poaching and improve population status of an endangered carnivore. We show that allowing wolf (Canis lupus) culling was substantially more likely to increase poaching than reduce it. Replicated, quasi-experimental changes in wolf policies in Wisconsin and Michigan, USA, revealed that a repeated policy signal to allow state culling triggered repeated slowdowns in wolf population growth, irrespective of the policy implementation measured as the number of wolves killed. The most likely explanation for these slowdowns was poaching and alternative explanations found no support. When the government kills a protected species, the perceived value of each individual of that species may decline; so liberalizing wolf culling may have sent a negative message about the value of wolves or acceptability of poaching. Our results suggest that granting management flexibility for endangered species to address illegal behaviour may instead promote such behaviour.

Longitudinal analysis of attitudes toward wolves.

Understanding individual attitudes and how these predict overt opposition to predator conservation or direct, covert action against predators will help to recover and maintain them. Studies of attitudes toward wild animals rely primarily on samples of individuals at a single time point. We examined longitudinal change in individuals' attitudes toward gray wolves (Canis lupus). In the contiguous United States, amidst persistent controversy and opposition, abundances of gray wolves are at their highest in 60 years. We used mailed surveys to sample 1892 residents of Wisconsin in 2001 or 2004 and then resampled 656 of these individuals who resided in wolf range in 2009. Our study spanned a period of policy shifts and increasing wolf abundance. Over time, the 656 respondents increased agreement with statements reflecting fear of wolves, the belief that wolves compete with hunters for deer (Odocoileus virginianus), and inclination to poach a wolf. Endorsement of lethal control of wolves by the state and public hunting of wolves also increased. Neither the time span over which respondents reported exposure to wolves locally nor self-reported losses of domestic animals to wolves correlated with changes in attitude. We predict future increases in legal and illegal killing of wolves that may reduce their abundance in Wisconsin unless interventions are implemented to improve attitudes and behavior toward wolves. To assess whether interventions change attitudes, longitudinal studies like ours are needed. Análisis Longitudinal de las Actitudes Hacia Lobos.

Low-stress livestock handling protects cattle in a five-predator habitat.

Given the ecological importance of top predators, societies are turning to non-lethal methods for coexistence. Coexistence is challenging when livestock graze within wild predator habitats. We report a randomized, controlled experiment to evaluate low-stress livestock handling (L-SLH), a form of range riding, to deter grizzly (brown) bears, gray wolves, cougars, black bears, and coyotes in Southwestern Alberta. The treatment condition was supervision by two newly hired and trained range riders and an experienced L-SLH-practicing range rider. This treatment was compared against a baseline pseudo-control condition of the experienced range rider working alone. Cattle experienced zero injuries or deaths in either condition. We infer that inexperienced range riders trained and supervised by an experienced rider did not raise or lower the risk to cattle. Also, predators did not shift to the cattle herds protected by fewer range riders. We found a correlation suggesting grizzly bears avoided herds visited more frequently by range riders practicing L-SLH. More research is required to compare different forms of range riding. However, pending experimental evaluation of other designs, we recommend use of L-SLH. We discuss the cobenefits of this husbandry method.

Trenches reduce crop foraging by elephants: Lessons from Kibale National Park, Uganda for elephant conservation in densely settled rural landscapes.

Crop loss to wildlife, particularly elephants, threatens livelihoods and support for conservation around many protected areas in Africa and Asia. Low-cost elephant barriers have been successfully deployed in savannas but seldom tested around isolated forest parks where the stakes are high for local farmers and isolated elephant populations. We measured the effectiveness of a series of ≥3 m deep trenches dug by farmers neighboring Kibale National Park, Uganda. We monitored trench quality and crop loss to elephants weekly for a year across 47 transects in four park-adjacent communities, and conducted controlled, before-and-after comparisons of verified damage. Elephants damaged or destroyed >4 ha of crops during 48 independent foraging events, the majority <220m from the forest boundary. The frequency of damage varied significantly between and within communities. The majority of trenches were not breached by elephants but five suffered ≥4 breaches. Elephant-breached trenches and their neighboring trenches were lower quality than those not breached in the same week (Wilcoxon test: p<0.001). Trenches were also more likely to be breached where people had planted more crops favored by elephants (Wilcoxon test: p = 0.014). Thus, trench quality and the draw of palatable crops both appeared to influence elephant damage. Although trenches may deter elephants, challenges include heavy labor and difficulties of digging in rocky and swampy areas. Trenches alone will not prevent conflict but this strategy holds promise for hot-spots of conflict at forest edges. Given the stakes for farmers and biodiversity, we call for systematic assessment of crop losses and offer recommendations on monitoring and analysis. Such data will allow for stronger inference about effectiveness before investment of effort and resources in interventions.

Botfly parasitism and tourism on the endangered black howler monkey of Belize.

Tourism imposes costs and benefits on wild primates. Endangered black howler monkey (Alouatta pigra) troops with high exposure to tourism had higher levels of botfly (Alouattamyia baeri) parasitism. Edge habitat and juvenile numbers did not seem to confound the observed relationship. To improve the cost/benefit ratio of tourism, we recommend further investigation.

Uncertainty and precaution in hunting wolves twice in a year.

When humanity confronts the risk of extinction of species, many people invoke precautions, especially in the face of uncertainty. Although precautionary approaches are value judgments, the optimal design and effect of precautions or lack thereof are scientific questions. We investigated Wisconsin gray wolves Canis lupus facing a second wolf-hunt in November 2021 and use three legal thresholds as the societal value judgments about precautions: (1) the 1999 population goal, 350 wolves, (2) the threshold for statutory listing under the state threatened and endangered species act, 250 wolves; and (3) state extirpation <2 wolves. This allows us to explore the quantitative relationship between precaution and uncertainty. Working from estimates of the size wolf population in April 2021 and reproduction to November, we constructed a simple linear model with uninformative priors for the period April 2021-April 2022 including an uncertain wolf-hunt in November 2021. Our first result is that the state government under-counted wolf deaths in the year preceding both wolf-hunts. We recommend better scientific analysis be used when setting wolf-hunt quotas. We find official recommendations for a quota for the November 2021 wolf-hunt risk undesirable outcomes. Even a quota of zero has a 13% chance of crossing threshold 1. Therefore, a zero death toll would be precautionary. Proponents for high quotas bear the burden of proof that their estimates are accurate, precise, and reproducible. We discuss why our approach is transferable to non-wolves. We show how scientists have the tools and concepts for quantifying and explaining the probabilities of crossing thresholds set by laws or other social norms. We recommend that scientists grapple with data gaps by explaining what the uncertainty means for policy and the public including the consequences of being wrong.

Poaching of protected wolves fluctuated seasonally and with non-wolf hunting.

Poaching is the main cause of mortality for many large carnivores, and mitigating it is imperative for the persistence of their populations. For Wisconsin gray wolves (Canis lupus), periods of increased risk in overall mortality and poaching seem to overlap temporally with legal hunting seasons for other large mammals (hunting wolves was prohibited). We analyzed monitoring data from adult, collared wolves in Wisconsin, USA (1979-2012, n = 495) using a competing-risk approach to test explicitly if seasons during which it was legal to train hunting hounds (hounding) or hunt other large mammals (hunting) affected wolves' hazard of cause-specific mortality and disappearance. We found increases in hazard for disappearances and documented ('reported') poaching during seasons with hunting, hounding or snow cover relative to a season without these factors. The 'reported poached' hazard increased > 650% during seasons with hunting and snow cover, which may be due to a seasonal surge in numbers of potential poachers or to some poachers augmenting their activities. Snow cover was a major environmental factor contributing to poaching, presumably through increased detection of wolves. Our study suggests poaching is by far the highest mortality hazard for wolves and reinforces the need for protections and policies targeting poaching of protected populations.

Evaluating how management policies affect red wolf mortality and disappearance.

Poaching is the major cause of death for large carnivores in several regions, contributing to their global endangerment. The traditional hypothesis used in wildlife management (killing for tolerance) suggests reducing protections for a species will decrease poaching. However, recent studies suggest reducing protections will instead increase poaching (facilitated illegal killing) and its concealment (facilitated cryptic poaching). Here, we build survival and competing risk models for mortality and disappearances of adult collared red wolves (Canis rufus) released in North Carolina, USA from 1987 to 2020 (n = 526). We evaluated how changes in federal and state policies protecting red wolves influenced the hazard and incidence of mortality and disappearance. We observed substantial increases in the hazard and incidence of red wolf reported poaching, and smaller increases in disappearances, during periods of reduced federal and state protections (including liberalizing hunting of coyotes, C. latrans); white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and American black bear (Ursus americanus) hunting seasons; and management phases. Observed increases in hazard (85-256%) and incidence of reported poaching (56-243%) support the 'facilitated illegal killing' hypothesis. We suggest improving protective policies intended to conserve endangered species generally and large carnivores in particular, to mitigate environmental crimes and generally improve the protection of wild animals.