Response to Comment on "Genomic signals of selection predict climate-driven population declines in a migratory bird".

Fitzpatrick et al discuss issues that they had with analyses and interpretation in our recent manuscript on genomic correlates of climate in yellow warblers. We provide evidence that our findings would not change with different analysis and maintain that our study represents a promising direction for integrating the potential for climate adaptation as one of many tools in conservation management.

Genomic signals of selection predict climate-driven population declines in a migratory bird.

The ongoing loss of biodiversity caused by rapid climatic shifts requires accurate models for predicting species' responses. Despite evidence that evolutionary adaptation could mitigate climate change impacts, evolution is rarely integrated into predictive models. Integrating population genomics and environmental data, we identified genomic variation associated with climate across the breeding range of the migratory songbird, yellow warbler (Setophaga petechia). Populations requiring the greatest shifts in allele frequencies to keep pace with future climate change have experienced the largest population declines, suggesting that failure to adapt may have already negatively affected populations. Broadly, our study suggests that the integration of genomic adaptation can increase the accuracy of future species distribution models and ultimately guide more effective mitigation efforts.