Estimating the annual risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis among adolescents in Western Kenya in preparation for TB vaccine trials.

BACKGROUND: Adolescents are a prime target group for tuberculosis (TB) vaccine trials that include prevention of infection (POI). The BCG vaccine is given at birth and does not prevent TB infection. TB infection, a critical endpoint for POI vaccine trials would need to be documented to estimate sample sizes in target populations. METHODS: Adolescents aged 12-18 years of age were enrolled in an area under continuous demographic surveillance. A tuberculin skin test (TST) survey was conducted as part of a study on TB prevalence and incidence. All adolescents got TSTs at enrolment and returned after 72 h for reading. A TST of ≥10 mm if HIV negative or ≥ 5 mm if HIV positive, was considered positive. RESULTS: Of 4808 adolescents returning for TST readings (96% of those enrolled), mean age was 14.4 (SD 1.9), 4518(94%) were enrolled in school and 21(0.4%) gave a previous history of tuberculosis. Among adolescents with TST reactivity, the mean TST induration was 13.2 mm (SD 5.4). The overall prevalence of latent TB infection was 1544/4808 (32.1, 95% CI 29.2-35.1) with a corresponding annual risk of TB infection (ARTI) of 2.6% (95% CI 2.2-3.1). Risk factors for a positive TST included being male (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.2,1.5), history of having a household TB contact (OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2,1.8), having a BCG scar (OR 1.5,95% CI 1.2,1.8), living in a rural area (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1,1.9), and being out of school (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4,2.3). CONCLUSION: We conclude that the high TB transmission rates we found in this study, suggest that adolescents in this region may be an appropriate target group for TB vaccine trials including TB vaccine trials aiming to prevent infection.

Choosing algorithms for TB screening: a modelling study to compare yield, predictive value and diagnostic burden.

BACKGROUND: To inform the choice of an appropriate screening and diagnostic algorithm for tuberculosis (TB) screening initiatives in different epidemiological settings, we compare algorithms composed of currently available methods. METHODS: Of twelve algorithms composed of screening for symptoms (prolonged cough or any TB symptom) and/or chest radiography abnormalities, and either sputum-smear microscopy (SSM) or Xpert MTB/RIF (XP) as confirmatory test we model algorithm outcomes and summarize the yield, number needed to screen (NNS) and positive predictive value (PPV) for different levels of TB prevalence. RESULTS: Screening for prolonged cough has low yield, 22% if confirmatory testing is by SSM and 32% if XP, and a high NNS, exceeding 1000 if TB prevalence is ≤0.5%. Due to low specificity the PPV of screening for any TB symptom followed by SSM is less than 50%, even if TB prevalence is 2%. CXR screening for TB abnormalities followed by XP has the highest case detection (87%) and lowest NNS, but is resource intensive. CXR as a second screen for symptom screen positives improves efficiency. CONCLUSIONS: The ideal algorithm does not exist. The choice will be setting specific, for which this study provides guidance. Generally an algorithm composed of CXR screening followed by confirmatory testing with XP can achieve the lowest NNS and highest PPV, and is the least amenable to setting-specific variation. However resource requirements for tests and equipment may be prohibitive in some settings and a reason to opt for symptom screening and SSM. To better inform disease control programs we need empirical data to confirm the modeled yield, cost-effectiveness studies, transmission models and a better screening test.

High prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis and inadequate case finding in rural western Kenya.

RATIONALE: Limited information exists on the prevalence of tuberculosis and adequacy of case finding in African populations with high rates of HIV. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and the fraction attributable to HIV, and to evaluate case detection. METHODS: Residents aged 15 years and older, from 40 randomly sampled clusters, provided two sputum samples for microscopy; those with chest radiograph abnormalities or symptoms suggestive of PTB provided one additional sputum sample for culture. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: PTB was defined by a culture positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis or two positive smears. Persons with PTB were offered HIV testing and interviewed on care-seeking behavior. We estimated the population-attributable fraction of HIV on prevalent and notified PTB, the patient diagnostic rate, and case detection rate using provincial TB notification data. Among 20,566 participants, 123 had PTB. TB prevalence was 6.0/1,000 (95% confidence interval, 4.6-7.4) for all PTB and 2.5/1,000 (1.6-3.4) for smear-positive PTB. Of 101 prevalent TB cases tested, 52 (51%) were HIV infected, and 58 (64%) of 91 cases who were not on treatment and were interviewed had not sought care. Forty-eight percent of prevalent and 65% of notified PTB cases were attributable to HIV. For smear-positive and smear-negative PTB combined, the patient diagnostic rate was 1.4 cases detected per person-year among HIV-infected persons having PTB and 0.6 for those who were HIV uninfected, corresponding to case detection rates of 56 and 65%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Undiagnosed PTB is common in this community. TB case finding needs improvement, for instance through intensified case finding with mobile smear microscopy services, rigorous HIV testing, and improved diagnosis of smear-negative TB.

Care seeking and attitudes towards treatment compliance by newly enrolled tuberculosis patients in the district treatment programme in rural western Kenya: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The two issues mostly affecting the success of tuberculosis (TB) control programmes are delay in presentation and non-adherence to treatment. It is important to understand the factors that contribute to these issues, particularly in resource limited settings, where rates of tuberculosis are high. The objective of this study is to assess health-seeking behaviour and health care experiences among persons with pulmonary tuberculosis, and identify the reasons patients might not complete their treatment. METHODS: We performed qualitative one-on-one in-depth interviews with pulmonary tuberculosis patients in nine health facilities in rural western Kenya. Thirty-one patients, 18 women and 13 men, participated in the study. All reside in an area of western Kenya with a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). They had attended treatment for up to 4 weeks on scheduled TB clinic days in September and October 2005.The nine sites all provide diagnostic and treatment services. Eight of the facilities were public (3 hospitals and 5 health centres) and one was a mission health centre. RESULTS: Most patients initially self-treated with herbal remedies or drugs purchased from kiosks or pharmacies before seeking professional care. The reported time from initial symptoms to TB diagnosis ranged from 3 weeks to 9 years. Misinterpretation of early symptoms and financial constraints were the most common reasons reported for the delay.We also explored potential reasons that patients might discontinue their treatment before completing it. Reasons included being unaware of the duration of TB treatment, stopping treatment once symptoms subsided, and lack of family support. CONCLUSIONS: This qualitative study highlighted important challenges to TB control in rural western Kenya, and provided useful information that was further validated in a quantitative study in the same area.

The Incidence of Tuberculosis in Infants, Siaya District, Western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Infants are a target population for new tuberculosis (TB) vaccines. TB incidence estimates are needed to guide the design of trials. To determine the TB incidence and cohort retention among young children using comprehensive diagnostic methods in a high burden area. METHODS: Infants 0-42 days were enrolled. Through 4 monthly follow-up and unscheduled (sick) visits up to the age of 2 years, infants with presumptive TB based on a history of contact, TB symptoms or pre-determined hospitalization criteria were admitted to a case verification ward. Two induced sputa and gastric aspirates were collected for culture and GeneXpert. Mantoux and HIV tests were done. Clinical management was based on the Keith Edwards score. Cases were classified into microbiologically confirmed or radiologic, diagnosed by blinded expert assessment. Cox regression was used to identify risk factors for incident TB and study retention. RESULTS: Of 2900 infants enrolled, 927 (32%) developed presumptive TB, 737/927 (80%) were investigated. Sixty-nine TB cases were diagnosed (bacteriologic and radiologic). All TB incidence was 2/100 person-years of observation (pyo) (95% CI: 1.65-2.65). Nine were bacteriologic cases, incidence 0.3/100 pyo. The radiologic TB incidence was 1.82/100 pyo. Bacteriologic TB was associated with infant HIV infection, higher Keith Edwards scores. Completeness of 4-month vaccinations and HIV infection were positively associated with retention. CONCLUSIONS: TB incidence was high. An all TB endpoint would require a sample size of a few thousand children, but tens of thousands, when limited to bacteriologic TB.

Incidence of Active Tuberculosis and Cohort Retention Among Adolescents in Western Kenya.

SETTING: Siaya County, with the highest tuberculosis notification rates in Kenya. OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence of active tuberculosis and 1-year cohort retention in 12-18-year-old adolescents, in preparation for phase III tuberculosis vaccine trials. METHODS: Adolescents were enrolled and followed up for 1-2 years to determine tuberculosis incidence. Adolescents with a positive tuberculin skin test, history of cohabitation with a tuberculosis case or at least 1 tuberculosis symptom received clinical and sputum examination and a chest radiograph. Definite tuberculosis cases were bacteriologically confirmed and clinical cases diagnosed by a clinician based on a suggestive chest radiograph and having clinical symptoms. Risk factors were explored using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Among 4934 adolescents without tuberculosis at baseline, 26 tuberculosis cases were identified during follow-up with a corresponding incidence density of 4.4 [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.0-6.4] events per 1000 person-years of observation, 12 definite tuberculosis cases; incidence density of 2.0 (95% CI: 0.9-3.1). Having previous tuberculosis (rate ratio: 12.5; CI: 1.8-100) and presence of tuberculin skin test conversion (rate ratio: 3.4; CI: 1.5-7.7) were significantly associated with higher risk of tuberculosis. Overall (4086/4925), 83.0% of adolescents were retained in the study after 1 year of follow-up. Being female, older, out of school and being orphaned were significant risk factors for loss to follow-up. CONCLUSION: The tuberculosis incidence in adolescents will help inform future tuberculosis vaccine trial sample size calculations for this setting. The predictive factors for tuberculosis and retention can be further explored in future trials.

Use of Xpert MTB/RIF in Decentralized Public Health Settings and Its Effect on Pulmonary TB and DR-TB Case Finding in India.

BACKGROUND: Xpert MTB/RIF, the first automated molecular test for tuberculosis, is transforming the diagnostic landscape in high-burden settings. This study assessed the impact of up-front Xpert MTB/RIF testing on detection of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and rifampicin-resistant PTB (DR-TB) cases in India. METHODS: This demonstration study was implemented in 18 sub-district level TB programme units (TUs) in India in diverse geographic and demographic settings covering a population of 8.8 million. A baseline phase in 14 TUs captured programmatic baseline data, and an intervention phase in 18 TUs had Xpert MTB/RIF offered to all presumptive TB patients. We estimated changes in detection of TB and DR-TB, the former using binomial regression models to adjust for clustering and covariates. RESULTS: In the 14 study TUs, which participated in both phases, 10,675 and 70,556 presumptive TB patients were enrolled in the baseline and intervention phase, respectively, and 1,532 (14.4%) and 14,299 (20.3%) bacteriologically confirmed PTB cases were detected. The implementation of Xpert MTB/RIF was associated with increases in both notification rates of bacteriologically confirmed TB cases (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 1.39; CI 1.18-1.64), and proportion of bacteriological confirmed TB cases among presumptive TB cases (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 1.33; CI 1.6-1.52). Compared with the baseline strategy of selective drug-susceptibility testing only for PTB cases at high risk of drug-resistant TB, Xpert MTB/RIF implementation increased rifampicin resistant TB case detection by over fivefold. Among, 2765 rifampicin resistance cases detected, 1055 were retested with conventional drug susceptibility testing (DST). Positive predictive value (PPV) of rifampicin resistance detected by Xpert MTB/RIF was 94.7% (CI 91.3-98.1), in comparison to conventional DST. CONCLUSION: Introduction of Xpert MTB/RIF as initial diagnostic test for TB in public health facilities significantly increased case-notification rates of all bacteriologically confirmed TB by 39% and rifampicin-resistant TB case notification by fivefold.

Optimal triage test characteristics to improve the cost-effectiveness of the Xpert MTB/RIF assay for TB diagnosis: a decision analysis.

BACKGROUND: High costs are a limitation to scaling up the Xpert MTB/RIF assay (Xpert) for the diagnosis of tuberculosis in resource-constrained settings. A triaging strategy in which a sensitive but not necessarily highly specific rapid test is used to select patients for Xpert may result in a more affordable diagnostic algorithm. To inform the selection and development of particular diagnostics as a triage test we explored combinations of sensitivity, specificity and cost at which a hypothetical triage test will improve affordability of the Xpert assay. METHODS: In a decision analytical model parameterized for Uganda, India and South Africa, we compared a diagnostic algorithm in which a cohort of patients with presumptive TB received Xpert to a triage algorithm whereby only those with a positive triage test were tested by Xpert. FINDINGS: A triage test with sensitivity equal to Xpert, 75% specificity, and costs of US$5 per patient tested reduced total diagnostic costs by 42% in the Uganda setting, and by 34% and 39% respectively in the India and South Africa settings. When exploring triage algorithms with lower sensitivity, the use of an example triage test with 95% sensitivity relative to Xpert, 75% specificity and test costs $5 resulted in similar cost reduction, and was cost-effective by the WHO willingness-to-pay threshold compared to Xpert for all in Uganda, but not in India and South Africa. The gain in affordability of the examined triage algorithms increased with decreasing prevalence of tuberculosis among the cohort. CONCLUSIONS: A triage test strategy could potentially improve the affordability of Xpert for TB diagnosis, particularly in low-income countries and with enhanced case-finding. Tests and markers with lower accuracy than desired of a diagnostic test may fall within the ranges of sensitivity, specificity and cost required for triage tests and be developed as such.

Risk factors for inadequate TB case finding in Rural Western Kenya: a comparison of actively and passively identified TB patients.

BACKGROUND: The findings of a prevalence survey conducted in western Kenya, in a population with 14.9% HIV prevalence suggested inadequate case finding. We found a high burden of infectious and largely undiagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), that a quarter of the prevalent cases had not yet sought care, and a low case detection rate. OBJECTIVE AND METHODS: We aimed to identify factors associated with inadequate case finding among adults with PTB in this population by comparing characteristics of 194 PTB patients diagnosed in a health facility after self-report, i.e., through passive case detection, with 88 patients identified through active case detection during the prevalence survey. We examined associations between method of case detection and patient characteristics, including HIV-status, socio-demographic variables and disease severity in univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses. FINDINGS: HIV-infection was associated with faster passive case detection in univariable analysis (crude OR 3.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0-5.9), but in multivariable logistic regression this was largely explained by the presence of cough, illness and clinically diagnosed smear-negative TB (adjusted OR (aOR) HIV 1.8, 95% CI 0.85-3.7). Among the HIV-uninfected passive case detection was less successful in older patients aOR 0.76, 95%CI 0.60-0.97 per 10 years increase), and women (aOR 0.27, 95%CI 0.10-0.73). Reported current or past alcohol use reduced passive case detection in both groups (0.42, 95% CI 0.23-0.79). Among smear-positive patients median durations of cough were 4.0 and 6.9 months in HIV-infected and uninfected patients, respectively. CONCLUSION: HIV-uninfected patients with infectious TB who were older, female, relatively less ill, or had a cough of a shorter duration were less likely found through passive case detection. In addition to intensified case finding in HIV-infected persons, increasing the suspicion of TB among HIV-uninfected women and the elderly are needed to improve TB case detection in Kenya.

Screening strategies for tuberculosis prevalence surveys: the value of chest radiography and symptoms.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a tuberculosis (TB) prevalence survey and evaluated the screening methods used in our survey, to assess if screening in TB prevalence surveys could be simplified, and to assess the accuracy of screening algorithms that may be applicable for active case finding. METHODS: All participants with a positive screen on either a symptom questionnaire, chest radiography (CXR) and/or sputum smear microscopy submitted sputum for culture. HIV status was obtained from prevalent cases. We estimated the accuracy of modified screening strategies with bacteriologically confirmed TB as the gold standard, and compared these with other survey reports. We also assessed whether sequential rather than parallel application of symptom, CXR and HIV screening would substantially reduce the number of participants requiring CXR and/or sputum culture. RESULTS: Presence of any abnormality on CXR had 94% (95%CI 88-98) sensitivity (92% in HIV-infected and 100% in HIV-uninfected) and 73% (95%CI 68-77) specificity. Symptom screening combinations had significantly lower sensitivity than CXR except for 'any TB symptom' which had 90% (95%CI 84-95) sensitivity (96% in HIV-infected and 82% in HIV-uninfected) and 32% (95%CI 30-34) specificity. Smear microscopy did not yield additional suspects, thus the combined symptom/CXR screen applied in the survey had 100% (95%CI 97-100) sensitivity. Specificity was 65% (95%CI 61-68). Sequential application of first a symptom screen for 'any symptom', followed by CXR-evaluation and different suspect criteria depending on HIV status would result in the largest reduction of the need for CXR and sputum culture, approximately 36%, but would underestimate prevalence by 11%. CONCLUSION: CXR screening alone had higher accuracy compared to symptom screening alone. Combined CXR and symptom screening had the highest sensitivity and remains important for suspect identification in TB prevalence surveys in settings where bacteriological sputum examination of all participants is not feasible.

Preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Western Kenya: operational issues.

OBJECTIVES: To improve uptake in a program to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission and describe lessons relevant for prevention of mother-to-child transmission programs in resource-poor settings. METHODS: Implementation of a pilot project that evaluates approaches to increase program uptake at health facility level at New Nyanza Provincial General Hospital, a public hospital in western Kenya, an area with high HIV prevalence. Client flow was revised to integrate counseling, HIV testing, and dispensing of single-dose nevirapine into routine antenatal services. The number of facilities providing PMCT services was expanded to increase district-wide coverage. Main outcome measures were uptake of counseling, HIV testing, nevirapine, and estimated program impact. RESULTS: Uptake of counseling and testing improved from 55 to 68% (P < 0.001), nevirapine uptake from 57% to 70% (P < 0.001), and estimated program impact from 15% to 23% (P = 0.03). Aggregate reports compare well with computer-entered data. CONCLUSION: Addressing institutional factors can improve uptake, but expected program impact remains low for several reasons, including relatively low efficacy of the intervention and missed opportunities in the labor room.