Resource limitation determines realized thermal performance of consumers in trophodynamic models.

Recent work has demonstrated that changes in resource availability can alter a consumer's thermal performance curve (TPC). When resources decline, the optimal temperature and breadth of thermal performance also decline, leading to a greater risk of warming than predicted by static TPCs. We investigate the effect of temperature on coupled consumer-resource dynamics, focusing on the potential for changes in the consumer TPC to alter extinction risk. Coupling consumer and resource dynamics generally reduces the potential for resource decline to exacerbate the effects of warming via changes to the TPC due to a reduction in top-down control when consumers near the limits of their thermal performance curve. However, if resources are more sensitive to warming, consumer TPCs can be reshaped by declining resources, leading to increased extinction risk. Our work elucidates the role of top-down and bottom-up regulation in determining the extent to which changes in resource density alter consumer TPCs.

Opportunities for behavioral rescue under rapid environmental change.

Laboratory measurements of physiological and demographic tolerances are important in understanding the impact of climate change on species diversity; however, it has been recognized that forecasts based solely on these laboratory estimates overestimate risk by omitting the capacity for species to utilize microclimatic variation via behavioral adjustments in activity patterns or habitat choice. The complex, and often context-dependent nature, of microclimate utilization has been an impediment to the advancement of general predictive models. Here, we overcome this impediment and estimate the potential impact of warming on the fitness of ectotherms using a benefit/cost trade-off derived from the simple and broadly documented thermal performance curve and a generalized cost function. Our framework reveals that, for certain environments, the cost of behavioral thermoregulation can be reduced as warming occurs, enabling behavioral buffering (e.g., the capacity for behavior to ameliorate detrimental impacts) and "behavioral rescue" from extinction in extreme cases. By applying our framework to operative temperature and physiological data collected at an extremely fine spatial scale in an African lizard, we show that new behavioral opportunities may emerge. Finally, we explore large-scale geographic differences in the impact of behavior on climate-impact projections using a global dataset of 38 insect species. These multiple lines of inference indicate that understanding the existing relationship between thermal characteristics (e.g., spatial configuration, spatial heterogeneity, and modal temperature) is essential for improving estimates of extinction risk.

Temporally Autocorrelated Environmental Fluctuations Inhibit the Evolution of Stress Tolerance.

As global environmental conditions continue to change at an unprecedented rate, many species will experience increases in natural and anthropogenic stress. Generally speaking, selection is expected to favor adaptations that reduce the negative impact of environmental stress (i.e., stress tolerance). However, natural environmental variables typically fluctuate, exhibiting various degrees of temporal autocorrelation, known as environmental colors, which may complicate evolutionary responses to stress. Here we combine experiments and theory to show that temporal environmental autocorrelation can determine long-term evolutionary responses to stress without affecting the total amount of stress experienced over time. Experimental evolution of RNA virus lineages in differing environmental autocorrelation treatments agreed closely with predictions from our theoretical models that stress tolerance is favored in less autocorrelated (whiter) environments but disfavored in more autocorrelated (redder) environments. This is explained by an interaction between environmental autocorrelation and a phenotypic trade-off between stress tolerance and reproductive ability. The degree to which environmental autocorrelation influences evolutionary trajectories depends on the shape of this trade-off as well as the relative level of tolerance exhibited by novel mutants. These results suggest that long-term evolutionary dynamics depend not only on the overall strength of selection but also on the way that selection is distributed over time.

Gradual plasticity alters population dynamics in variable environments: thermal acclimation in the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhartdii.

Environmental variability is ubiquitous, but its effects on populations are not fully understood or predictable. Recent attention has focused on how rapid evolution can impact ecological dynamics via adaptive trait change. However, the impact of trait change arising from plastic responses has received less attention, and is often assumed to optimize performance and unfold on a separate, faster timescale than ecological dynamics. Challenging these assumptions, we propose that gradual plasticity is important for ecological dynamics, and present a study of the plastic responses of the freshwater green algae Chlamydomonas reinhardtii as it acclimates to temperature changes. First, we show that C. reinhardtii's gradual acclimation responses can both enhance and suppress its performance after a perturbation, depending on its prior thermal history. Second, we demonstrate that where conventional approaches fail to predict the population dynamics of C. reinhardtii exposed to temperature fluctuations, a new model of gradual acclimation succeeds. Finally, using high-resolution data, we show that phytoplankton in lake ecosystems can experience thermal variation sufficient to make acclimation relevant. These results challenge prevailing assumptions about plasticity's interactions with ecological dynamics. Amidst the current emphasis on rapid evolution, it is critical that we also develop predictive methods accounting for plasticity.

Thermal variability alters the impact of climate warming on consumer-resource systems.

Thermal variation through space and time are prominent features of ecosystems that influence processes at multiple levels of biological organization. Yet, it remains unclear how populations embedded within biological communities will respond to climate warming in thermally variable environments, particularly as climate change alters existing patterns of thermal spatial and temporal variability. As environmental temperatures increase above historical ranges, organisms may increasingly rely on extreme habitats to effectively thermoregulate. Such locations desirable in their thermal attributes (e.g., thermal refugia) are often suboptimal for resource acquisition (e.g., underground tunnels). Thus, via the expected increase in both mean temperatures and diel thermal variation, climate warming may heighten the trade-off for consumers between behaviors maximizing thermal performance and those maximizing resource acquisition. Here, we integrate behavioral, physiological, and trophic ecology to provide a general framework for understanding how temporal thermal variation, mediated by access to a thermal refugium, alters the response of consumer-resource systems to warming. We use this framework to predict how temporal variation and access to thermal refugia affect the persistence of consumers and resources during climate warming, how the quality of thermal refugia impact consumer-resource systems, and how consumer-resource systems with fast vs. slow ecological dynamics respond to warming. Our results show that the spatial thermal variability provided by refugia can elevate consumer biomass at warmer temperatures despite reducing the fraction of time consumers spend foraging, that temporal variability detrimentally impacts consumers at high environmental temperatures, and that consumer-resource systems with fast ecological dynamics are most vulnerable to climate warming. Thus, incorporating both estimates of thermal variability and species interactions may be necessary to accurately predict how populations respond to warming.

The body size dependence of trophic cascades.

Trophic cascades are indirect positive effects of predators on resources via control of intermediate consumers. Larger-bodied predators appear to induce stronger trophic cascades (a greater rebound of resource density toward carrying capacity), but how this happens is unknown because we lack a clear depiction of how the strength of trophic cascades is determined. Using consumer resource models, we first show that the strength of a trophic cascade has an upper limit set by the interaction strength between the basal trophic group and its consumer and that this limit is approached as the interaction strength between the consumer and its predator increases. We then express the strength of a trophic cascade explicitly in terms of predator body size and use two independent parameter sets to calculate how the strength of a trophic cascade depends on predator size. Both parameter sets predict a positive effect of predator size on the strength of a trophic cascade, driven mostly by the body size dependence of the interaction strength between the first two trophic levels. Our results support previous empirical findings and suggest that the loss of larger predators will have greater consequences on trophic control and biomass structure in food webs than the loss of smaller predators.

Phase-locking and environmental fluctuations generate synchrony in a predator-prey community.

Spatially synchronized fluctuations in system state are common in physical and biological systems ranging from individual atoms to species as diverse as viruses, insects and mammals. Although the causal factors are well known for many synchronized phenomena, several processes concurrently have an impact on spatial synchrony of species, making their separate effects and interactions difficult to quantify. Here we develop a general stochastic model of predator-prey spatial dynamics to predict the outcome of a laboratory microcosm experiment testing for interactions among all known synchronizing factors: (1) dispersal of individuals between populations; (2) spatially synchronous fluctuations in exogenous environmental factors (the Moran effect); and (3) interactions with other species (for example, predators) that are themselves spatially synchronized. The Moran effect synchronized populations of the ciliate protist Tetrahymena pyriformis; however, dispersal only synchronized prey populations in the presence of the predator Euplotes patella. Both model and data indicate that synchrony depends on cyclic dynamics generated by the predator. Dispersal, but not the Moran effect, 'phase-locks' cycles, which otherwise become 'decoherent' and drift out of phase. In the absence of cycles, phase-locking is not possible and the synchronizing effect of dispersal is negligible. Interspecific interactions determine population synchrony, not by providing an additional source of synchronized fluctuations, but by altering population dynamics and thereby enhancing the action of dispersal. Our results are robust to wide variation in model parameters representative of many natural predator-prey or host-pathogen systems. This explains why cyclic systems provide many of the most dramatic examples of spatial synchrony in nature.

A bioenergetic framework for the temperature dependence of trophic interactions.

Changing temperature can substantially shift ecological communities by altering the strength and stability of trophic interactions. Because many ecological rates are constrained by temperature, new approaches are required to understand how simultaneous changes in multiple rates alter the relative performance of species and their trophic interactions. We develop an energetic approach to identify the relationship between biomass fluxes and standing biomass across trophic levels. Our approach links ecological rates and trophic dynamics to measure temperature-dependent changes to the strength of trophic interactions and determine how these changes alter food web stability. It accomplishes this by using biomass as a common energetic currency and isolating three temperature-dependent processes that are common to all consumer-resource interactions: biomass accumulation of the resource, resource consumption and consumer mortality. Using this framework, we clarify when and how temperature alters consumer to resource biomass ratios, equilibrium resilience, consumer variability, extinction risk and transient vs. equilibrium dynamics. Finally, we characterise key asymmetries in species responses to temperature that produce these distinct dynamic behaviours and identify when they are likely to emerge. Overall, our framework provides a mechanistic and more unified understanding of the temperature dependence of trophic dynamics in terms of ecological rates, biomass ratios and stability.

Increased temperature variation poses a greater risk to species than climate warming.

Increases in the frequency, severity and duration of temperature extremes are anticipated in the near future. Although recent work suggests that changes in temperature variation will have disproportionately greater effects on species than changes to the mean, much of climate change research in ecology has focused on the impacts of mean temperature change. Here, we couple fine-grained climate projections (2050-2059) to thermal performance data from 38 ectothermic invertebrate species and contrast projections with those of a simple model. We show that projections based on mean temperature change alone differ substantially from those incorporating changes to the variation, and to the mean and variation in concert. Although most species show increases in performance at greater mean temperatures, the effect of mean and variance change together yields a range of responses, with temperate species at greatest risk of performance declines. Our work highlights the importance of using fine-grained temporal data to incorporate the full extent of temperature variation when assessing and projecting performance.

Synchronous dynamics of zooplankton competitors prevail in temperate lake ecosystems.

Although competing species are expected to exhibit compensatory dynamics (negative temporal covariation), empirical work has demonstrated that competitive communities often exhibit synchronous dynamics (positive temporal covariation). This has led to the suggestion that environmental forcing dominates species dynamics; however, synchronous and compensatory dynamics may appear at different length scales and/or at different times, making it challenging to identify their relative importance. We compiled 58 long-term datasets of zooplankton abundance in north-temperate and sub-tropical lakes and used wavelet analysis to quantify general patterns in the times and scales at which synchronous/compensatory dynamics dominated zooplankton communities in different regions and across the entire dataset. Synchronous dynamics were far more prevalent at all scales and times and were ubiquitous at the annual scale. Although we found compensatory dynamics in approximately 14% of all combinations of time period/scale/lake, there were no consistent scales or time periods during which compensatory dynamics were apparent across different regions. Our results suggest that the processes driving compensatory dynamics may be local in their extent, while those generating synchronous dynamics operate at much larger scales. This highlights an important gap in our understanding of the interaction between environmental and biotic forces that structure communities.

Competition and the density dependence of metabolic rates.

Although mass and temperature are strong predictors of metabolic rates, there is considerable unexplained variation in metabolic rates both within and across species after body size and temperature are taken into account. Some of this variation may be due to changes in the rate of food intake with population density, as metabolism depends on the throughput of food to fuel biochemical reactions. Using data collected from the literature, we show that individual metabolic rates are negatively correlated with population density for a wide range of organisms including primary producers and consumers. Using new data for the zooplankter Daphnia ambigua, we also find genotypic variation in the relationship between metabolic rate and population density. The relationship between metabolic rate and population density generally follows a power law scaling, and within a population, density-correlated variation in metabolism can span two orders of magnitude. We suggest that density-dependent metabolic rates arise via competitive effects on foraging rates (both exploitation and interference competition), combined with an activity response to accommodate the resource constraint induced by competition. Standard ecological models predict the kind of density-dependent foraging patterns that could give rise to density-dependent metabolic rates, but this has generally not been investigated. Our results indicate that after body mass and temperature, population density represents an important third axis that may account for a large amount of unexplained variance in metabolic rates within and among species. The effect of population density on metabolism has implications for the scaling of metabolic rates from individuals to populations and the relative performance of species and genotypes and therefore also for community assembly and evolution.

A dynamic explanation of size-density scaling in carnivores.

Population abundance is negatively related to body size for many types of organisms. Despite the ubiquity of size-density scaling relationships, we lack a general understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Although dynamic models suggest that it is possible to predict the intercept and slope of the scaling relationship from prior observations, this has never been empirically attempted. Here we fully parameterize a set of consumer-resource models for mammalian carnivores and successfully predict the size-density scaling relationship for this group without the use of free parameters. All models produced similar predictions, but comparison of nested models indicated that the primary factors generating size-density scaling in mammalian carnivores are prey productivity, predator-prey size ratios, and consumer area of capture.

Consistent scaling of persistence time in metapopulations.

Recent theory and experimental work in metapopulations and metacommunities demonstrates that long-term persistence is maximized when the rate at which individuals disperse among patches within the system is intermediate; if too low, local extinctions are more frequent than recolonizations, increasing the chance of regional-scale extinctions, and if too high, dynamics exhibit region-wide synchrony, and local extinctions occur in near unison across the region. Although common, little is known about how the size and topology of the metapopulation (metacommunity) affect this bell-shaped relationship between dispersal rate and regional persistence time. Using a suite of mathematical models, we examined the effects of dispersal, patch number, and topology on the regional persistence time when local populations are subject to demographic stochasticity. We found that the form of the relationship between regional persistence time and the number of patches is consistent across all models studied; however, the form of the relationship is distinctly different among low, intermediate, and high dispersal rates. Under low and intermediate dispersal rates, regional persistence times increase logarithmically and exponentially (respectively) with increasing numbers of patches, whereas under high dispersal, the form of the relationship depends on local dynamics. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the forms of these relationships, which give rise to the bell-shaped relationship between dispersal rate and persistence time, are a product of recolonization and the region-wide synchronization (or lack thereof) of population dynamics. Identifying such metapopulation attributes that impact extinction risk is of utmost importance for managing and conserving the earth's evermore fragmented populations.

Size-density scaling in protists and the links between consumer-resource interaction parameters.

Recent work indicates that the interaction between body-size-dependent demographic processes can generate macroecological patterns such as the scaling of population density with body size. In this study, we evaluate this possibility for grazing protists and also test whether demographic parameters in these models are correlated after controlling for body size. We compiled data on the body-size dependence of consumer-resource interactions and population density for heterotrophic protists grazing algae in laboratory studies. We then used nested dynamic models to predict both the height and slope of the scaling relationship between population density and body size for these protists. We also controlled for consumer size and assessed links between model parameters. Finally, we used the models and the parameter estimates to assess the individual- and population-level dependence of resource use on body-size and prey-size selection. The predicted size-density scaling for all models matched closely to the observed scaling, and the simplest model was sufficient to predict the pattern. Variation around the mean size-density scaling relationship may be generated by variation in prey productivity and area of capture, but residuals are relatively insensitive to variation in prey size selection. After controlling for body size, many consumer-resource interaction parameters were correlated, and a positive correlation between residual prey size selection and conversion efficiency neutralizes the apparent fitness advantage of taking large prey. Our results indicate that widespread community-level patterns can be explained with simple population models that apply consistently across a range of sizes. They also indicate that the parameter space governing the dynamics and the steady states in these systems is structured such that some parts of the parameter space are unlikely to represent real systems. Finally, predator-prey size ratios represent a kind of conundrum, because they are widely observed but apparently have little influence on population size and fitness, at least at this level of organization.

Phase locking, the Moran effect and distance decay of synchrony: experimental tests in a model system.

Spatially separated populations of many species fluctuate synchronously. Synchrony typically decays with increasing interpopulation distance. Spatial synchrony, and its distance decay, might reflect distance decay of environmental synchrony (the Moran effect), and/or short-distance dispersal. However, short-distance dispersal can synchronize entire metapopulations if within-patch dynamics are cyclic, a phenomenon known as phase locking. We manipulated the presence/absence of short-distance dispersal and spatially decaying environmental synchrony and examined their separate and interactive effects on the synchrony of the protist prey species Tetrahymena pyriformis growing in spatial arrays of patches (laboratory microcosms). The protist predator Euplotes patella consumed Tetrahymena and generated predator-prey cycles. Dispersal increased prey synchrony uniformly over both short and long distances, and did so by entraining the phases of the predator-prey cycles. The Moran effect also increased prey synchrony, but only over short distances where environmental synchrony was strongest, and did so by increasing the synchrony of stochastic fluctuations superimposed on the predator-prey cycle. Our results provide the first experimental demonstration of distance decay of synchrony due to distance decay of the Moran effect. Distance decay of the Moran effect likely explains distance decay of synchrony in many natural systems. Our results also provide an experimental demonstration of long-distance phase locking, and explain why cyclic populations provide many of the most dramatic examples of long-distance spatial synchrony in nature.

Adaptive dynamics of competition for nutritionally complementary resources: character convergence, displacement, and parallelism.

Consumers acquire essential nutrients by ingesting the tissues of resource species. When these tissues contain essential nutrients in a suboptimal ratio, consumers may benefit from ingesting a mixture of nutritionally complementary resource species. We investigate the joint ecological and evolutionary consequences of competition for complementary resources, using an adaptive dynamics model of two consumers and two resources that differ in their relative content of two essential nutrients. In the absence of competition, a nutritionally balanced diet rarely maximizes fitness because of the dynamic feedbacks between uptake rate and resource density, whereas in sympatry, nutritionally balanced diets maximize fitness because competing consumers with different nutritional requirements tend to equalize the relative abundances of the two resources. Adaptation from allopatric to sympatric fitness optima can generate character convergence, divergence, and parallel shifts, depending not on the degree of diet overlap but on the match between resource nutrient content and consumer nutrient requirements. Contrary to previous verbal arguments that suggest that character convergence leads to neutral stability, coadaptation of competing consumers always leads to stable coexistence. Furthermore, we show that incorporating costs of consuming or excreting excess nonlimiting nutrients selects for nutritionally balanced diets and so promotes character convergence. This article demonstrates that resource-use overlap has little bearing on coexistence when resources are nutritionally complementary, and it highlights the importance of using mathematical models to infer the stability of ecoevolutionary dynamics.

Eco-Evolutionary dynamics enable coexistence via neighbor-dependent selection.

Recent studies suggest that selection can allow coexistence in situations where ecological dynamics lead to competitive exclusion, provided that there is a trade-off between traits optimal for interacting with conspecifics and traits optimal for interacting with heterospecifics. Despite compelling empirical evidence, there is no general framework for elucidating how and when selection will allow coexistence in natural communities. Here we develop such a framework for a mechanism that we term "neighbor-dependent selection." We show that this mechanism can both augment coexistence when ecological conditions allow for niche partitioning and enable coexistence when ecological conditions lead to competitive exclusion. The novel insight is that when ecological conditions lead to exclusion, neighbor-dependent selection can allow coexistence via cycles driven by an intransitive loop; selection causes one species to be a superior interspecific competitor when it is rare and an inferior interspecific competitor when it is abundant. Our framework predicts the conditions under which selection can enable coexistence, as opposed to merely augmenting it, and elucidates the effects of heritability on the eco-evolutionary feedbacks that drive coexistence. Given increasing evidence that evolution operates on ecological timescales, our approach provides one means for evaluating the role of selection and trait evolution in species coexistence.

Mutual interference is common and mostly intermediate in magnitude.

BACKGROUND: Interference competition occurs when access to resources is negatively affected by the presence of other individuals. Within a species or population, this is known as mutual interference, and it is often modelled with a scaling exponent, m, on the number of predators. Originally, mutual interference was thought to vary along a continuum from prey dependence (no interference; m = 0) to ratio dependence (m = -1), but a debate in the 1990's and early 2000's focused on whether prey or ratio dependence was the better simplification. Some have argued more recently that mutual interference is likely to be mostly intermediate (that is, between prey and ratio dependence), but this possibility has not been evaluated empirically. RESULTS: We gathered estimates of mutual interference from the literature, analyzed additional data, and created the largest compilation of unbiased estimates of mutual interference yet produced. In this data set, both the alternatives of prey dependence and ratio dependence were observed, but only one data set was consistent with prey dependence. There was a tendency toward ratio dependence reflected by a median m of -0.7 and a mean m of -0.8. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the data support the hypothesis that interference is mostly intermediate in magnitude. The data also indicate that interference competition is common, at least in the systems studied to date. Significant questions remain regarding how different factors influence interference, and whether interference can be viewed as a characteristic of a particular population or whether it generally shifts from low to high levels as populations increase in density.

Variation cascades: resource pulses and top-down effects across time scales.

Top-down and bottom-up theories of trophic control have been fundamental to our understanding of community dynamics and structure. However, most ecological theories have focused on equilibrium dynamics and do not provide predictions for communities' responses in temporally fluctuating environments. By deriving the frequency response of populations in different trophic communities, we extend the top-down and bottom-up theories of ecology to include how temporal fluctuations in potential primary productivity percolate up the food chain and are re-expressed as population variability. Moreover, by switching from a time-based representation into the frequency domain, we provide a unified method to compare how the time scale of perturbations determines communities' responses. At low frequencies, primary producers and secondary consumers have the highest temporal variability, while the primary consumers are relatively stable. Similar to the Exploitation Ecosystem Hypothesis, top-down effects drive this alternating pattern of variability. We define the top-down effect of consumers on the variability of lower trophic levels as a variation cascade. However, at intermediate frequencies, variation cascades can amplify temporal variation up the food chain. At high frequencies, variation cascades weaken, and fluctuations are attenuated up the food chain. In summary, we provide a novel theory for how communities will respond to fluctuations in productivity, and we show that indirect species interactions play a crucial role in determining community dynamics across the frequency spectrum.

Character convergence under competition for nutritionally essential resources.

Resource competition is thought to drive divergence in resource use traits (character displacement) by generating selection favoring individuals able to use resources unavailable to others. However, this picture assumes nutritionally substitutable resources (e.g., different prey species). When species compete for nutritionally essential resources (e.g., different nutrients), theory predicts that selection drives character convergence. We used models of two species competing for two essential resources to address several issues not considered by existing theory. The models incorporated either slow evolutionary change in resource use traits or fast physiological or behavioral change. We report four major results. First, competition always generates character convergence, but differences in resource requirements prevent competitors from evolving identical resource use traits. Second, character convergence promotes coexistence. Competing species always attain resource use traits that allow coexistence, and adaptive trait change stabilizes the ecological equilibrium. In contrast, adaptation in allopatry never preadapts species to coexist in sympatry. Third, feedbacks between ecological dynamics and trait dynamics lead to surprising dynamical trajectories such as transient divergence in resource use traits followed by subsequent convergence. Fourth, under sufficiently slow trait change, ecological dynamics often drive one of the competitors to near extinction, which would prevent realization of long-term character convergence in practice.