Filaggrin Mutation Status and Prevention of Atopic Dermatitis with Maternal Probiotic Supplementation.

The World Allergy Organization recommends probiotics in the prevention of atopic dermatitis in high-risk populations. Mutations in the filaggrin gene (FLG) result in an increased risk of atopic dermatitis through disruption of the skin keratin layer. This exploratory study investigated whether the preventive effect of maternal probiotics was evident in children with and without FLG mutations. DNA was collected from children (n = 228) from the Probiotic in the Prevention of Allergy among Children in Trondheim (ProPACT) study. Samples were analysed for 3 common FLG mutations (R501X, R2447X, and 2282del4). Overall, 7% of children had heterozygous FLG mutations; each child had only one of the 3 mutations. Mutation status had no association with atopic dermatitis (RR = 1.1; 95% CI 0.5 to 2.3). The risk ratio (RR) for having atopic dermatitis following maternal probiotics was 0.6 (95% CI 0.4 to 0.9) and RR was similar if the child expressed an FLG mutation (RR = 0.6; 95% CI 0.1 to 4.1) or wildtype FLG (RR = 0.6; 95% CI 0.4 to 0.9). The preventive  effect of probiotics for atopic dermatitis was also evident in children without FLG mutation. Larger confirmatory studies are needed.

Calprotectin and CRP as biomarkers of cardiovascular disease risk in patients with chronic kidney disease: a follow-up study at 5 and 10 years.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and low-grade inflammation are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Calprotectin, a protein mainly secreted by activated neutrophils during inflammatory conditions, has been linked to CVD risk in general populations. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association of calprotectin with CVD risk in CKD patients, relative to C-reactive protein (CRP). One hundred and fifty-three patients with moderate CKD were prospectively followed up at 5 and 10 years. We used Cox regression modelling with stepwise adjustments for other relevant covariates (age, sex, cystatin C, previous CVD, systolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol and HbA1c) to assess the association of baseline calprotectin and CRP with the risk of fatal or non-fatal CVD events. Twenty-nine and 44 patients experienced a CVD event during median follow-up of 4.8 and 10.9 years, respectively. Higher calprotectin was associated with increased CVD risk at both time points, which remained statistically significant after multivariable adjustments, including adjustment for CRP. For CRP, the associations did not remain statistically significant after final multivariable adjustments. In conclusion, we have shown that in patients with CKD, calprotectin was independently associated with the risk of future CVD events, suggesting that calprotectin may provide prognostic information of CVD risk.

Persons with rheumatoid arthritis have higher barriers to physical activity than controls: a cross-sectional study using the Facilitators and Barriers to Physical Activity Questionnaire (FasBarPAQ).

Facilitators and barriers to performing physical activity (PA) may vary among persons with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) as well as between RA patients and healthy individuals. Primary objective: To investigate associations of presence of RA and levels of stress and depression with scores for facilitators and barriers to PA, using a new questionnaire (FasBarPAQ). Secondary objectives: investigate inter-individual score differences in persons with RA, and associations with RA disease-specific variables. Persons with RA from two outpatient clinics (n = 203) and blood donor controls (n = 293) filled in the new 14-item FasBarPAQ questionnaire, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale depression scale (HADS-D), Cohen's perceived stress scale, and questions regarding PA. Clinical data, and self-reported disease activity and physical function were collected for the persons with RA. Data were analyzed using linear and logistic regression. RA was associated with lower Facilitators scores (coefficient = - 1.30, p = 0.015), higher Barriers scores (coefficient = 2.36, p < 0.001) and lower Total Facilitators-Barriers scores (coefficient = - 3.67, p < 0.001). HADS-D ≥ 8 was associated with lower Total scores (coefficient = - 3.32, p = 0.022), and the two higher stress score tertiles were associated with higher Barriers and lower Total scores (p = 0.023 to p < 0.001). Persons with RA reported greatly varying facilitators and barriers profiles. Seropositivity and higher patient global assessment were associated with higher Barriers scores (coefficients = 1.79, p = 0.011; 0.60, p < 0.001) and lower Total scores (coefficients = - 3.60, p = 0.003; - 0.98, p < 0.001). Persons with RA had higher barriers and lower facilitators for PA, with varying individual profiles. The new FasBarPAQ questionnaire may be a useful screening tool for healthcare providers treating persons with RA.

High physical activity in persons with psoriatic arthritis is associated with reduced visceral fat mass and percentage body fat: the Trøndelag Health study.

The associations of physical activity (PA) with body composition among persons with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) are not well described. The objective was to investigate associations of PA with visceral fat mass and percentage body fat in persons with PsA of different age groups. Persons with PsA (CASPAR criteria, n = 356), and controls (n = 47,470) from the Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT4, 2017-2019) were included. Visceral fat mass and percentage body fat measured using bioelectrical impedance were primary outcomes in multivariable linear regression analysis. PsA, PA (questionnaire data), and age were explanatory variables, with adjustment for sex, smoking, heart disease, lung disease, and height. An interaction term between PsA and age was included in both models. Persons with PsA had altered body composition, including higher visceral fat mass and percentage body fat, especially those < 40 years of age (p ≤ 0.01). Moderate or high PA was associated with significantly lower values of the primary outcomes. Differences were Moderate compared to low PA: 1.4 kg (95% CI 1.3, 1.5 kg) lower visceral fat mass, and 2.0% (95% CI 1.8, 2.1) lower percentage body fat. Differences were High compared to low PA: 3.2 kg (95% CI 3.1, 3.3) lower visceral fat mass and 5.0% (95% CI 4.8, 5.1%) lower percentage body fat. Persons with PsA had higher visceral fat mass and percentage body fat, especially if < 40 years, and PA was associated with lower values of both endpoints. Changes of body composition in persons with PsA may influence important health outcomes and should be addressed in clinical practice.

Systemic inflammatory proteins in offspring following maternal probiotic supplementation for atopic dermatitis prevention.

BACKGROUND: Maternal probiotic supplementation has a promising effect on atopic dermatitis (AD) prevention in infancy. In the randomised controlled study, Probiotics in the Prevention of Allergy among Children in Trondheim (ProPACT), maternal probiotics reduced the cumulative incidence of AD in their offspring by 40% at 2 years of age. However, our understanding on how probiotics prevented AD is still limited, and the role of inflammatory proteins in infants following maternal probiotic supplementation is unclear. We hypothesised that maternal probiotics lowered pro-inflammatory proteins and increased anti-inflammatory proteins in their 2-year-old children as a mechanism of AD prevention. We aimed to explore this hypothesis and the association between these proteins and the presence of AD, severity of AD, and the degree of preventive effect of probiotics. METHODS: Plasma samples were collected from 2-year-old children (n = 202) during the ProPACT study, a randomised placebo-controlled trial of maternal probiotic supplementation. These samples were analysed for 92 inflammatory proteins using a multiplex proximity extension assay. Associations between inflammatory proteins and the presence and severity of AD, and the degree of preventive effect, was estimated individually using regression analysis and then collectively using unsupervised cluster analysis. RESULTS: Several proteins were observed to differ between the groups. The probiotic group had lower CCL11 and IL-17C, while children with AD had higher IL-17C, MCP-4, uPA, and CD6. Cytokine CCL20 and IL-18 had moderate correlation (r = 0.35 and r = 0.46) with the severity of AD. The cluster analysis revealed that children in the cluster of samples with the highest value of immune checkpoint receptors and inflammatory suppressor enzymes showed the greatest AD preventive effect from probiotics. CONCLUSIONS: The proteins associated with both maternal probiotic supplementation and the presence and severity of AD warrant attention because of their potential biological relevance. Cluster analysis may provide a new insight when considering which subgroups benefit from probiotic supplementation. Larger studies are needed to confirm the results. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: The study was retrospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00159523) on 12nd September 2005.

Associations between circulating microRNAs and coronary plaque characteristics: potential impact from physical exercise.

microRNAs (miRs) are involved in different steps in the development of atherosclerosis and are proposed as promising biomarkers of coronary artery disease (CAD). We hypothesized that circulating levels of miRs were associated with coronary plaque components assessed by radiofrequency intravascular ultrasound (RF-IVUS) before and after aerobic exercise intervention. Thirty-one patients with CAD treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) previously included in a randomized trial with aerobic interval training (AIT) or moderate continuous training (MCT) as post-PCI intervention were included. Coronary plaque characteristics by grayscale and RF-IVUS and predefined circulating candidate miRs in plasma were analyzed at baseline and follow-up. Associations between miRs and coronary plaque composition, and the potential effect from exercise, were analyzed using linear regression. Circulating levels of miR-15a-5p, miR-30e-5p, miR-92a-3p, miR-199a-3p, miR-221-3p, and miR-222-3p were associated with baseline coronary necrotic core volume. Following exercise intervention, decreased levels of miR-15a-5p, miR-93-5p, and miR-451a, and increased levels of miR-146a-5p were associated with an observed regression of coronary plaque burden. A mirPath prediction tool identified that genes regulated by miR-15a-5p, miR-199a-3p, and miR-30e-5p were significantly overrepresented in pathways related to fatty acid biosynthesis and fatty acid metabolism. This exploratory study demonstrated six miRs associated with coronary necrotic core, a marker of plaque vulnerability. In addition, changes in four miRs were associated with a regression of coronary plaque burden following exercise intervention. These novel findings may identify potential future biomarkers of CAD and coronary plaque composition.

Use of the Behavioral Regulation in Exercise Questionnaire-2 to assess motivation for physical activity in persons with rheumatoid arthritis: an observational study.

Arthritis patients may show little motivation for physical activity (PA), resulting in a sedentary lifestyle. The primary objective of the study was to investigate whether motivation for PA and fulfillment of PA recommendations were associated with cardiorespiratory fitness in patients with RA. The exploratory objective was to study whether university students could be used as controls for RA patients in future studies of PA motivation. Peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak) was measured in 93 RA patients. The patients and 354 students filled in the Behavioral Regulation in Exercise Questionnaire-2 (BREQ-2). Data were analyzed using structural equation modeling with adjustment for age and sex. The BREQ-2 scores were also compiled to an overall motivational style "Relative Autonomy Index" as previously published. Mean VO2peak for the RA patients was 32.2 (SD: 9.6) mL × min-1 × kg-1. Only 29 patients (31%) fulfilled the current recommendations for PA. BREQ-2 scores were associated with measured VO2peak (standardized coefficient 0.33, p < 0.001). Whether a person fulfilled the current recommendations for PA was a significant mediator of this effect (standardized coefficients: mediated effect; 0.22, p = 0.001, remaining direct effect; 0.11, p = 0.18). The Relative Autonomy Index also significantly predicted measured VO2peak (standardized coefficient 0.30, p < 0.001). The underlying BREQ-2 factor structure was significantly different between RA patients and university students, and comparison of scores would not be adequate. Motivation for PA was significantly associated with measured VO2peak in RA patients. The effect was mediated by whether the patient fulfilled the current recommendations for PA. Addressing and stimulating motivation is important when intervening to increase PA and cardiovascular fitness in RA patients.

Faster age-related decline in cardiorespiratory fitness in rheumatoid arthritis patients: an observational study in the Trøndelag Health Study.

Primary aim: Compare change in estimated cardiorespiratory fitness (eCRF change) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients with population-based age- and sex-matched controls during ~ 11-year follow-up and identify variables associated with eCRF change. Secondary aim: Compare eCRF level in RA patients and controls. eCRF change from the second (HUNT2 1995-1997) to the third (HUNT3 2006-2008) surveys of the Norwegian Trøndelag Health Study was compared between RA patients (n = 188) and controls (n = 26,202) attending both surveys. Predictors of eCRF change were identified by Lasso regression followed by multiple linear regression. Mean eCRF level in RA patients (n = 436) and controls (n = 67,910) was compared using age-adjusted linear regression stratified on sex, as well as two-sample t tests including RA patients (n = 432) and controls (n = 59,124) who attended either HUNT2, HUNT3 or both HUNT2 and HUNT3. The mean eCRF decline from HUNT2 to HUNT3 in RA patients was 8.3 mL min-1 kg-1 versus 6.7 mL min-1 kg-1 in controls (p < 0.001). The decline was faster in RA patients and larger with higher baseline age (standardized regression coefficient for RA patients: (- 0.482 × age + 0.044); controls: (- 0.367 × age, p < 0.001). The decline was also associated with smoking, cardiovascular disease, increasing body mass index, asthma, and hypertension. Mean differences in age-adjusted eCRF level for RA patients versus controls (p < 0.001): women HUNT2: - 3.2 mL min-1 kg-1; HUNT3: - 5.0 mL min-1 kg-1; men HUNT2: - 1.8 mL min-1 kg-1; HUNT3: - 4.0 mL min-1 kg-1. Higher age at baseline was associated with faster decline in eCRF. This change was more pronounced in RA patients than controls, indicating a larger negative effect on fitness of aging in RA. RA patients had lower eCRF compared to healthy individuals.

Is the aortic size index relevant as a predictor of abdominal aortic aneurysm? A population-based prospective study: the Tromsø study.

Objectives. The normal aortic diameter (AD) varies with gender, age and body surface area (BSA). The aortic size index (ASI) is defined as the AD divided by BSA. The primary aim of this study was to investigate if ASI is a predictor of development AAA, and to compare the predictive impact of ASI to that of the absolute AD. Design. Population-based prospective study including 4161 individuals (53.2% women) from the Tromsø study with two valid ultrasound measurements of the AD and no AAA at baseline (Tromsø 4, 1994). The primary outcome was AAA (AD ≥30 mm) in Tromsø 5 (2001). A secondary outcome was aortic growth of >5 mm over 7 years. Estimates of relative risk were calculated in logistic regression models. The main exposure variable was ASI. Adjustments were made for age, gender, smoking, body mass index, total and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and hypertension. Results. In total, 124 incident AAAs (20% among women) were detected. In adjusted analyses, both ASI and AD were strong predictors of AAA, with similar results for men and women. Both ASI and AD were also significant predictors of aortic growth >5 mm. In comparison, AD was superior to ASI as a predictor of both endpoints. Conclusions. ASI was a significant predictor of both AAA development and aortic growth of >5 mm for both men and women, but not a better predictor of either outcomes compared to the AD. The role of ASI compared to the AD as a predictor of AAA development seems to be limited.

Female sex hormones and risk of incident abdominal aortic aneurysm in Norwegian women in the HUNT study.

OBJECTIVE: The delayed development of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) in women compared with men might be secondary to a protective effect from endogenous estrogens. The role of postmenopausal hormone therapy remains unclear. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of female sex hormones compared with other risk factors associated with AAA through a long-term study of a large female cohort. METHODS: The present prospective cohort study included 20,024 postmenopausal women from the Norwegian Nord-Trøndelag Health Study. A total of 201 cases of AAA were identified during a median follow-up period of 18 years (295,554 person-years; 1995-2014). The data were recorded from questionnaires, physical measurements, medical records, blood sample test results, and the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. The effect of risk factors was evaluated in a multiple Cox regression analysis. Multiple imputation was performed for missing data (n = 50 data sets). The serum estradiol concentrations in women with and without incidental AAAs were compared. The median interval from blood sample collection to the AAA diagnosis was 7 years. RESULTS: Current smokers had >10-fold increased risk of incident AAA during the follow-up period (hazard ratio [HR], 10.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.4-16.1). Positive associations were found for hypertension (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.4-3.0) and coronary heart disease (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.6-3.2). The HR associated with the current use of postmenopausal hormone therapy was 0.58 (95% CI, 0.6-1.5). No substantial difference in estradiol concentrations was found between women with and without AAA (P = .075). CONCLUSIONS: The effect of female sex hormones on the risk of incident AAAs in women, as evaluated by the serum concentrations of estradiol and the use of postmenopausal hormone therapy, is clinically less important than the strong associations found with smoking, hypertension, and coronary heart disease.

Potential causal associations of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D with lipids: a Mendelian randomization approach of the HUNT study.

Observational studies have shown consistent associations between higher circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels and favorable serum lipids. We sought to investigate if such associations were causal. A Mendelian randomization (MR) study was conducted on a population-based cohort comprising 56,435 adults in Norway. A weighted 25(OH)D allele score was generated based on vitamin D-increasing alleles of rs2282679, rs12785878 and rs10741657. Linear regression analyses of serum lipid levels on the allele score were performed to assess the presence of causal associations of serum 25(OH)D with the lipids. To quantify the causal effects, the inverse-variance weighted method was used for calculating MR estimates based on summarized data of individual single-nucleotide polymorphisms. The MR estimate with 95% confidence interval (CI) represents percentage difference in the lipid level per genetically determined 25 nmol/L increase in 25(OH)D. The 25(OH)D allele score demonstrated a clear association with high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (p = 0.007) but no association with total or non-HDL cholesterol or triglycerides (p ≥ 0.27). The MR estimate showed 2.52% (95% CI 0.79-4.25%) increase in HDL cholesterol per genetically determined 25 nmol/L increase in 25(OH)D, which was stronger than the corresponding estimate of 1.83% (95% CI 0.85-2.81%) from the observational analysis. The MR estimates for total cholesterol (0.60%, 95% CI - 0.73 to 1.94%), non-HDL cholesterol (0.04%, 95% CI - 1.79 to 1.88%) and triglycerides (- 2.74%, 95% CI - 6.16 to 0.67%) showed no associations. MR analysis of data from a population-based cohort suggested a causal and positive association between serum 25(OH)D and HDL cholesterol.

Perioperative Factors Associated With Changes in Troponin T During Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting.

OBJECTIVE: Investigate important clinical and operative variables associated with increases in cardiac troponin T (cTnT) as indicators of myocardial injury after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Single university hospital. PARTICIPANTS: The study comprised 626 patients undergoing isolated CABG from April 2008 through April 2010 with a validation cohort (n = 686) from 2015-2017. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Perioperative variables were registered prospectively. The extent of diffuse coronary atherosclerosis and significant stenoses were assessed with preoperative coronary angiography. Mixed model analysis was used to construct a statistical model explaining the course of cTnT concentrations. The model was adjusted for preoperative and intraoperative/postoperative myocardial infarction (MI) for independent assessment of additional variables. Clinical factors associated with increased cTnT concentrations during and after CABG were longer duration of cardiopulmonary bypass (p < 0.001), higher preoperative creatinine (p < 0.001), New York Heart Association functional classification IV (p = 0.006), reduced LVEF (p = 0.034), higher preoperative C-reactive protein (p = 0.049), and intraoperative/postoperative MI (p < 0.001). Factors associated with decreasing cTnT concentrations during CABG were higher BSA (p < 0.001) and a recent preoperative MI (p < 0.001). The extent of diffuse coronary atherosclerosis and significant stenoses were not associated with changes in cTnT (p = 0.35). Results were similar in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Left ventricular ejection fraction, New York Heart Association classification, kidney function, inflammation status, duration of cardiopulmonary bypass, body surface area, and preoperative MI were associated with the cTnT rise-and-fall pattern related to myocardial injury after CABG. Information regarding these variables may be valuable when using cTnT in the diagnostic workup of postoperative MI.

High-Intensity Interval Training in Patients With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: Small studies have suggested that high-intensity interval training (HIIT) is superior to moderate continuous training (MCT) in reversing cardiac remodeling and increasing aerobic capacity in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. The present multicenter trial compared 12 weeks of supervised interventions of HIIT, MCT, or a recommendation of regular exercise (RRE). METHODS: Two hundred sixty-one patients with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35% and New York Heart Association class II to III were randomly assigned to HIIT at 90% to 95% of maximal heart rate, MCT at 60% to 70% of maximal heart rate, or RRE. Thereafter, patients were encouraged to continue exercising on their own. Clinical assessments were performed at baseline, after the intervention, and at follow-up after 52 weeks. Primary end point was a between-group comparison of change in left ventricular end-diastolic diameter from baseline to 12 weeks. RESULTS: Groups did not differ in age (median, 60 years), sex (19% women), ischemic pathogenesis (59%), or medication. Change in left ventricular end-diastolic diameter from baseline to 12 weeks was not different between HIIT and MCT (P=0.45); left ventricular end-diastolic diameter changes compared with RRE were -2.8 mm (-5.2 to -0.4 mm; P=0.02) in HIIT and -1.2 mm (-3.6 to 1.2 mm; P=0.34) in MCT. There was also no difference between HIIT and MCT in peak oxygen uptake (P=0.70), but both were superior to RRE. However, none of these changes was maintained at follow-up after 52 weeks. Serious adverse events were not statistically different during supervised intervention or at follow-up at 52 weeks (HIIT, 39%; MCT, 25%; RRE, 34%; P=0.16). Training records showed that 51% of patients exercised below prescribed target during supervised HIIT and 80% above target in MCT. CONCLUSIONS: HIIT was not superior to MCT in changing left ventricular remodeling or aerobic capacity, and its feasibility remains unresolved in patients with heart failure. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00917046.

A Preoperative Multimarker Approach to Evaluate Acute Kidney Injury After Cardiac Surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether a multimarker strategy combining preoperative biomarkers representing distinct pathophysiologic pathways enhances preoperative risk assessment of acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery (CSA-AKI) and increases knowledge of underlying pathogenesis. DESIGN: Prospective, cohort study. SETTING: Single-center tertiary referral hospital. PARTICIPANTS: The study comprised 1,015 adults undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. INTERVENTIONS: CSA-AKI was defined as≥50% increase in serum creatinine concentration, absolute increase≥26 µmol/L, or new requirement for dialysis. Preoperative and perioperative information until hospital discharge was recorded. Preoperative plasma levels of C-reactive protein, terminal complement complex, neopterin, lactoferrin, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, and cystatin C were determined using enzyme immunoassays. Biomarkers were selected based on causal hypotheses of underlying mechanisms and were related to inflammatory, hemodynamic, or renal signaling pathways. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: One hundred patients (9.9%) developed CSA-AKI. Higher baseline plasma concentrations of neopterin and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide were associated independently with CSA-AKI (p = 0.04 and p<0.001, respectively). Lower baseline plasma lactoferrin concentrations were observed in patients with CSA-AKI (p = 0.05). Compared with clinical risk assessment, addition of these biomarkers provided a slight, but significant, increment in predictive utility (area under the curve 0.81-0.83, likelihood ratio test p<0.001). A net of 12% of patients were reclassified correctly, and improved prediction was demonstrated, especially in patients with intermediate risk (56% correct reclassification). CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative hemodynamic, renal, and immunologic function play central roles in the pathogenesis of CSA-AKI. These findings add evidence to the potential of a multimarker approach to improve preoperative prediction of CSA-AKI.

Prediction of bleeding after cardiac surgery: comparison of model performances: a prospective observational study.

OBJECTIVES: Primary aims were to (1) perform external validation of the Papworth Bleeding Risk Score, and (2) compare the usefulness of the Dyke et al universal definition of perioperative bleeding with that used in the Papworth Bleeding Risk Score. A secondary aim was to use a locally developed logistic prediction model for severe postoperative bleeding to investigate whether prediction could be improved with inclusion of the variable "surgeon" or selected intraoperative variables. DESIGN: Single-center prospective observational study. SETTING: University hospital. PARTICIPANTS: 7,030 adults undergoing cardiac surgery. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Papworth Bleeding Risk Score could identify the group of patients with low risk of postoperative bleeding, with negative predictive value of 0.98, when applying the Papworth Score on this population. The positive predictive value was low; only 15% of the patients who were rated high risk actually suffered from increased postoperative bleeding when using the Papworth Score on this population. Using the universal definition of perioperative bleeding proposed by Dyke et al, 28% of patients in the Papworth high-risk group exceeded the threshold of excessive bleeding in this population. The local models showed low ability for discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve<0.75). Addition of the factor "surgeon" or selected intraoperative variables did not substantially improve the models. CONCLUSION: Prediction of risk for excessive bleeding after cardiac surgery was not possible using clinical variables only, independent of endpoint definition and inclusion of the variable "surgeon" or of selected intraoperative variables. These findings may be due to incomplete understanding of the causative factors underlying excessive bleeding.

The predictive value of allergen skin prick tests and IgE tests at pre-school age: the PACT study.

BACKGROUND: Sensitization toward allergens, as determined by skin prick test (SPT) or specific IgE (sIgE), is a predictor for the later presence of allergy-related disease (atopic eczema, allergic rhinoconjuctivitis and asthma). However, it is not known whether SPT or sIgE should be the preferred test. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive ability of SPT and sIgE when performed in a general population of 2-yr-old children. METHODS: In a prospective, longitudinal population-based study of children aged 2-6 yr, SPT and sIgE for nine common allergens were performed at 2 yr. Allergy-related disease was evaluated by clinical examination and questionnaire at 2 and 6 yr of age (n = 199). RESULTS: Skin prick test or sIgE was positive in 10.6% and 21.1% in the 2-yr-old children, respectively. The prevalence of allergy-related disease was 25.6% at 2 yr and 25.1% at 6 yr. Half of the cases at 2 yr were transient. Both SPT and sIgE were statistically significant predictors for later allergy-related disease, OR = 6.5 (95% CI 2.3-18.6) and OR = 4.1 (95% CI 1.9-9.0), respectively. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that SPT and sIgE had comparable predictive ability for atopic eczema, asthma or any allergy-related disease, but sIgE had better ability to predict later allergic rhinoconjunctivitis. CONCLUSION: Sensitization at 2 yr may be useful predictors of allergy-related disease later in childhood. The predictive ability of SPT and sIgE were mainly comparable; however, it may be that sIgE is the preferred choice in young children when the aim is to predict allergic rhinoconjunctivitis.

Prediction of mortality in adult patients with severe acute lung failure receiving veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: a prospective observational study.

INTRODUCTION: Veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (vvECMO) can be a life-saving therapy in patients with severe acute lung failure refractory to conventional therapy. Nevertheless, vvECMO is a procedure associated with high costs and resource utilization. The aim of this study was to assess published models for prediction of mortality following vvECMO and optimize an alternative model. METHODS: Established mortality risk scores were validated to assess their usefulness in 304 adult patients undergoing vvECMO for refractory lung failure at the University Medical Center Regensburg from 2008 to 2013. A parsimonious prediction model was developed based on variables available before ECMO initiation using logistic regression modelling. We then assessed whether addition of variables available one day after ECMO implementation enhanced mortality prediction. Models were internally validated and calibrated by bootstrapping (400 runs). Predictive ability, goodness-of-fit and model discrimination were compared across the different models. RESULTS: In the present study population, existing mortality prediction tools for vvECMO patients showed suboptimal performance. Evaluated before vvECMO initiation, a logistic prediction model comprising age, immunocompromised state, artificial minute ventilation, pre-ECMO serum lactate and hemoglobin concentrations showed best mortality prediction in our patients (area under curve, AUC: 0.75). Additional information about norepinephrine dosage, fraction of inspired oxygen, C-reactive protein and fibrinogen concentrations the first day following ECMO initiation further improved discrimination (AUC: 0.79, P = 0.03) and predictive ability (likelihood ratio test, P < 0.001). When classifying patients as lower (<40%) or higher (>80%) risk based on their predicted mortality, the pre-ECMO and day1-on-ECMO models had negative/positive predictive values of 76%/82% and 82%/81%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: While pre-ECMO mortality prediction remains a challenge due to large patient heterogeneity, evaluation one day after ECMO initiation may improve the ability to separate lower- and higher-risk patients. Our findings support the clinical perception that chronic health condition, high comorbidity and reduced functional reserves are strongly related to survival during and following ECMO support. Renewed evaluation the first day after ECMO initiation may provide enhanced guidance for further handling of ECMO patients. Despite the usefulness of prediction models, thorough clinical evaluation should always represent the cornerstone in decision for ECMO.

Comparison of three point-of-care testing devices to detect hemostatic changes in adult elective cardiac surgery: a prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Bleeding complications in cardiac surgery may lead to increased morbidity and mortality. Traditional blood coagulation tests are not always suitable to detect rapid changes in the patient's coagulation status. Point-of-care instruments such as the TEG (thromboelastograph) and RoTEM (thromboelastometer) have been shown to be useful as a guide for the clinician in the choice of blood products and they may lead to a reduction in the need for blood transfusion, contributing to better patient blood management. METHODS: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the ability of the TEG, RoTEM and Sonoclot instruments to detect changes in hemostasis in elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass and to investigate possible correlations between variables from these three instruments and routine hematological coagulation tests. Blood samples from thirty-five adult patients were drawn before and after surgery and analyzed in TEG, RoTEM, Sonoclot and routine coagulation tests. Data were compared using repeated measures analysis of variance and Pearson's test for linear correlation. RESULTS: We found significant changes for all TEG variables after surgery, for three of the RoTEM variables, and for one variable from the Sonoclot. There were significant correlations postoperatively between plasma fibrinogen levels and variables from the three instruments. CONCLUSIONS: TEG and RoTEM may be used to detect changes in hemostasis following cardiac surgery with CPB. Sonoclot seems to be less suitable to detect such changes. Variables from the three instruments correlated with plasma fibrinogen and could be used to monitor treatment with fibrinogen concentrate.

Rheumatoid arthritis, disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs and risk of major osteoporotic fracture: prospective data from the HUNT Study, Norway.

OBJECTIVES: Rheumatoid arthritis has been associated with increased fracture risk. New treatments have improved the course of the disease substantially, but it is not clear if this influences fracture risk. We examined if rheumatoid arthritis, overall and according to disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs), is associated with a risk of major osteoporotic fractures. METHODS: Overall, 92 285 participants in the population-based Nord-Trndelag Health Study (HUNT), Norway were included and linked with hospital records for a validated rheumatoid arthritis diagnosis (n=605), type of DMARD treatment and fracture diagnosis. Participants were followed up until the first major osteoporotic fracture, death, emigration or end of follow-up. Cox regression was used to estimate HRs for fractures among individuals with rheumatoid arthritis, overall and by DMARD treatment, compared with participants without rheumatoid arthritis. RESULTS: A total of 9670 fractures were observed during follow-up, of which 88 were among those with rheumatoid arthritis. Compared with the reference group of participants without rheumatoid arthritis, those with the disease had an HR of fracture of 1.41 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.74). The association was largely similar for users of csDMARDs (HR 1.44; 95% CI 1.15 to 1.81), whereas the association for bDMARD users was weaker and less precise (HR 1.19; 95% CI 0.64 to 2.21). CONCLUSION: Participants with rheumatoid arthritis had a 40% higher risk of fracture than participants without the disease. A similar fracture risk was observed for conventional synthetic DMARD use, whereas there was weak evidence that the use of biological DMARDs may be associated with a somewhat lower fracture risk.

Exercise training and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin-I in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction.

AIMS: The aims of this sub-study of the SMARTEX trial were (1) to evaluate the effects of a 12-week exercise training programme on serum levels of high sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) in patients with moderate chronic heart failure (CHF), in New York Heart Association class II-III with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and (2) to explore the associations with left ventricular remodelling, functional capacity and filling pressures measured with N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). METHODS AND RESULTS: In this sub-study, 196 patients were randomly assigned to high intensity interval training (HIIT, n = 70), moderate continuous training (MCT, n = 59) or recommendation of regular exercise (RRE), (n = 67) for 12 weeks. To reveal potential difference between structured intervention and control, HIIT and MCT groups were merged and named supervised exercise training (SET) group. The RRE group constituted the control group (CG). To avoid contributing factors to myocardial injury, we also evaluated changes in patients without additional co-morbidities (atrial fibrillation, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease). The relationship between hs-cTnI and left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (LVEDD), VO2peak, and NT-proBNP was analysed by linear mixed models. At 12 weeks, Hs-cTnI levels were modestly but significantly reduced in the SET group from median 11.9 ng/L (interquartile ratio, IQR 7.1-21.8) to 11.5 ng/L (IQR 7.0-20.7), P = 0.030. There was no between-group difference (SET vs. CG, P = 0.116). There was a numerical but not significant reduction in hs-cTnI for the whole population (P = 0.067) after 12 weeks. For the sub-group of patients without additional co-morbidities, there was a significant between-group difference: SET group (delta -1.2 ng/L, IQR -2.7 to 0.1) versus CG (delta -0.1 ng/L, IQR -0.4 to 0.7), P = 0.007. In the SET group, hs-cTnI changed from 10.9 ng/L (IQR 6.0-22.7) to 9.2 ng/L (IQR 5.2-20.5) (P = 0.002), whereas there was no change in the CG (6.4 to 5.8 ng/L, P = 0.64). Changes in hs-cTnI (all patients) were significantly associated with changes in; LVEDD, VO2peak, and NT-proBNP, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with stable HFrEF, 12 weeks of structured exercise intervention was associated with a modest, but significant reduction of hs-cTnI. There was no significant difference between intervention group and control group. In the sub-group of patients without additional co-morbidities, this difference was highly significant. The alterations in hs-cTnI were associated with reduction of LVEDD and natriuretic peptide concentrations as well as improved functional capacity.