The ADnet Bayesian belief network for alder decline: Integrating empirical data and expert knowledge.

The globalization in plant material trading has caused the emergence of invasive pests in many ecosystems, such as the alder pathogen Phytophthora ×alni in European riparian forests. Due to the ecological importance of alder to the functioning of rivers and the increasing incidence of P. ×alni-induced alder decline, effective and accessible decision tools are required to help managers and stakeholders control the disease. This study proposes a Bayesian belief network methodology to integrate diverse information on the factors affecting the survival and infection ability of P. ×alni in riparian habitats to help predict and manage disease incidence. The resulting Alder Decline Network (ADnet) management tool integrates information about alder decline from scientific literature, expert knowledge and empirical data. Expert knowledge was gathered through elicitation techniques that included 19 experts from 12 institutions and 8 countries. An original dataset was created covering 1189 European locations, from which P. ×alni occurrence was modeled based on bioclimatic variables. ADnet uncertainty was evaluated through its sensitivity to changes in states and three scenario analyses. The ADnet tool indicated that mild temperatures and high precipitation are key factors favoring pathogen survival. Flood timing, water velocity, and soil type have the strongest influence on disease incidence. ADnet can support ecosystem management decisions and knowledge transfer to address P. ×alni-induced alder decline at local or regional levels across Europe. Management actions such as avoiding the planting of potentially infected trees or removing man-made structures that increase the flooding period in disease-affected sites could decrease the incidence of alder disease in riparian forests and limit its spread. The coverage of the ADnet tool can be expanded by updating data on the pathogen's occurrence, particularly from its distributional limits. Research on the role of genetic variability in alder susceptibility and pathogen virulence may also help improve future ADnet versions.

Effects of Carpobrotus edulis invasion on soil gross N fluxes in rocky coastal habitats.

The effects of alien plants on whole nutrient cycles have been scarcely studied, despite the increasing evidence on their impact on nutrient pools and fluxes. Carpobrotus edulis, a dangerous invasive plant in coastal areas worldwide, is considered an ecosystems engineer which, by changing many soil properties, benefits its own invasion and hampers the restoration of the invaded habitats. To study, for the first time, the 'true' impact of C. edulis on the soil N cycle, we used a paired 15N labelling experiment and a Ntrace compartment model to estimate the gross N fluxes in the 0-5cm and 5-10cm soil layers of non-invaded and C. edulis invaded areas of two temperate-humid coastal rocky locations. Carpobrotus edulis invasion generally increased NH4+ immobilization (INH4, 1.19-4.48×), presumably due to a lower N availability for the microbiota. The invasion also decreased autotrophic nitrification (ONH4, 0.20-0.79×), either by a direct effect over soil microbiota or by the acidification triggered by C. edulis. Unexpectedly, the dissimilatory nitrate reduction (DNRA) was the exclusive NO3- consuming process modelled on most of the studied soils, although the incubation was aerobic. Apparently, the high organic C content of these soils induced a higher O2 consumption and the formation of anaerobic microsites where the DNRA could have taken place. The lower NO3- availability of invaded soils could explain their lower DNRA rates (0.04-0.70×) compared to native soils. Both DNRA and ONH4 were more affected in the 0-5cm layer, but the invasion also significantly affected N rates in the 5-10cm layer. Overall, net nitrification and mineralization generally decreased in the invaded soils. This study shows that the invasion of C. edulis alters soil gross and net N fluxes in a 0-10cm depth through its effects on soil properties and microbiota.