Child-Parent Familial Hypercholesterolemia Screening in Primary Care.

BACKGROUND: Child-parent screening for familial hypercholesterolemia has been proposed to identify persons at high risk for inherited premature cardiovascular disease. We assessed the efficacy and feasibility of such screening in primary care practice. METHODS: We obtained capillary blood samples to measure cholesterol levels and to test for familial hypercholesterolemia mutations in 10,095 children 1 to 2 years of age during routine immunization visits. Children were considered to have positive screening results for familial hypercholesterolemia if their cholesterol level was elevated and they had either a familial hypercholesterolemia mutation or a repeat elevated cholesterol level 3 months later. A parent of each child with a positive screening result for familial hypercholesterolemia was considered to have a positive screening result for familial hypercholesterolemia if he or she had the same mutation as the child or, if no mutations were identified, had the higher cholesterol level of the two parents. RESULTS: The use of a prespecified cholesterol cutoff value of 1.53 multiples of the median (MoM, corresponding to a percentile of 99.2) identified 28 children who had positive screening results for familial hypercholesterolemia (0.3% of the 10,095 children; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2 to 0.4), including 20 with a familial hypercholesterolemia mutation and 8 with a repeat cholesterol level of at least 1.53 MoM. A total of 17 children who had a cholesterol level of less than 1.53 MoM also had a familial hypercholesterolemia mutation. The overall mutation prevalence was 1 in 273 children (37 in 10,095; 95% CI, 1 in 198 to 1 in 388). The use of an initial cholesterol cutoff value of 1.35 MoM (95th percentile) plus a mutation, or two cholesterol values of at least 1.50 MoM (99th percentile), identified 40 children who had positive screening results for familial hypercholesterolemia (0.4% of the 10,095 children, including 32 children who had a familial hypercholesterolemia mutation and 8 who did not have the mutation) and 40 parents who had positive screening results for familial hypercholesterolemia. CONCLUSIONS: Child-parent screening was feasible in primary care practices at routine child immunization visits. For every 1000 children screened, 8 persons (4 children and 4 parents) were identified as having positive screening results for familial hypercholesterolemia and were consequently at high risk for cardiovascular disease. (Funded by the Medical Research Council.).

The illusion of polygenic disease risk prediction.

A problem at the interface of genomic medicine and medical screening is that genetic associations of etiological significance are often interpreted as having predictive significance. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many thousands of associations between common DNA variants and hundreds of diseases and benign traits. This knowledge has generated many publications with the understandable expectation that it can be used to derive polygenic risk scores for predicting disease to identify those at sufficiently high risk to benefit from preventive intervention. However, the expectation rests on the incorrect assumption that odds ratios derived from polygenic risk scores that are important etiologically are also directly useful in risk prediction and population screening.

Prenatal reflex DNA screening for trisomies 21, 18, and 13.

PURPOSE: The purpose of the study was to determine the screening performance of prenatal reflex DNA screening for trisomies 21 (T21), 18 (T18), and 13 (T13) as part of a routine service at five hospitals. METHODS: Women who accepted screening had a first-trimester combined test (pregnancy-associated plasma protein A, free ß-human chorionic gonadotropin, nuchal translucency interpreted with maternal age). Those with a risk of having an affected pregnancy ≥1 in 800 were reflexed to a DNA sequencing test using stored plasma from the original blood sample, thereby avoiding the need to recall them. RESULTS: Of 22,812 women screened (including 106 with affected pregnancies), 2,480 (10.9%) were reflexed to DNA testing; 101/106 were detected (69/73 T21, 24/25 T18, and 8/8 T13), a 95% detection rate (95% confidence interval 89-98%) with four false positives (0.02%, 95% confidence interval 0.00-0.05%). The odds of being affected given a positive result were 25:1. Of the 105 screen-positive pregnancies, 91 (87%) had an invasive diagnostic test. Reflex DNA screening avoided up to 530 invasive diagnostic tests compared with using the combined test. CONCLUSION: Reflex DNA screening was successfully implemented in routine care, achieving a high detection rate, low false-positive rate, and, consequently, greater safety with fewer invasive diagnostic tests than other methods of screening.

Specifying a Gold Standard for the Validation of Fetal Fraction Estimation in Prenatal Screening.

BACKGROUND: An estimate of fetal fraction (FF) is needed for DNA-based screening for trisomy 21 and other aneuploidies, but there is no gold standard to validate FF measurement methods. We specify a gold standard and use it to validate a method of measuring FF (SeqFF) in singleton pregnancies. METHODS: The gold standard was a formula derived from 2 elements: (a) an estimate of the percentage of DNA fragments in maternal plasma from chromosome 21 (%Ch21) in pregnancies without trisomy 21, 18, or 13 (PU) and (b) calculation of %Ch21 with increasing FF in trisomy 21 pregnancies (P21). The SeqFF method was evaluated by plotting regression lines of %Ch21 and SeqFF estimates of FF in 31 singleton male and 31 female trisomy 21 pregnancies and comparing the regressions with the reference line derived from the gold standard formula. RESULTS: The gold standard formula was P21 = (1/2)PUFF + PU, with FF expressed as a proportion, or converting %Ch21 to multiples of the median (MoM), P21(MoM) = (1/2)FF + 1. Based on 3865 pregnancies, the PU was 1.2935%. The regression lines for trisomy 21 pregnancies with male and female fetuses were almost identical to the gold standard reference line (regression slopes in MoMs 0.52 and 0.50, respectively, compared with 0.50 for the gold standard reference line). CONCLUSIONS: The proposed gold standard can be used to validate different methods of estimating FF in singleton pregnancies. SeqFF is an accurate method of estimating FF.

Prenatal screening for Down syndrome in twin pregnancies: Estimates of screening performance based on 61 affected and 7302 unaffected twin pregnancies.

The aims of this study were to determine whether assumptions used in prenatal screening for Down syndrome in twin pregnancies are valid and derive estimates of risk and screening performance in twin pregnancies using observed data. Data were collected on nuchal translucency, chorionicity, pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), and free ß human chorionic gonadotrophin (free ß-hCG) from 61 twin pregnancies with Down syndrome and 7302 unaffected twin pregnancies. Distribution parameters were determined and used to estimate screening performance. The assumption that proportional differences in serum marker levels in affected and unaffected singleton pregnancies apply to twin pregnancies was not confirmed. Median free ß-hCG value in monochorionic affected twin pregnancies (2.63 multiples of the median [MoM]; 95% CI, 1.79-3.22 MoM) was lower than that assuming proportionality (3.76 MoM), and the median PAPP-A value in dichorionic affected twin pregnancies (1.88 MoM; 95% CI, 1.60-2.17 MoM) was higher than that based on proportionality (1.33 MoM). The detection rate was 87% for a 3% false-positive rate in monochorionic twin pregnancies and 74% in dichorionic twin pregnancies compared with 86% in singleton pregnancies. Estimates of screening performance in Down syndrome twin pregnancies do not need to rely on assumptions and can take account of chorionicity and gestational age.

Randomized trial of preventive angioplasty in myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: In acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), the use of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) to treat the artery responsible for the infarct (infarct, or culprit, artery) improves prognosis. The value of PCI in noninfarct coronary arteries with major stenoses (preventive PCI) is unknown. METHODS: From 2008 through 2013, at five centers in the United Kingdom, we enrolled 465 patients with acute STEMI (including 3 patients with left bundle-branch block) who were undergoing infarct-artery PCI and randomly assigned them to either preventive PCI (234 patients) or no preventive PCI (231 patients). Subsequent PCI for angina was recommended only for refractory angina with objective evidence of ischemia. The primary outcome was a composite of death from cardiac causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or refractory angina. An intention-to-treat analysis was used. RESULTS: By January 2013, the results were considered conclusive by the data and safety monitoring committee, which recommended that the trial be stopped early. During a mean follow-up of 23 months, the primary outcome occurred in 21 patients assigned to preventive PCI and in 53 patients assigned to no preventive PCI (infarct-artery-only PCI), which translated into rates of 9 events per 100 patients and 23 per 100, respectively (hazard ratio in the preventive-PCI group, 0.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.21 to 0.58; P<0.001). Hazard ratios for the three components of the primary outcome were 0.34 (95% CI, 0.11 to 1.08) for death from cardiac causes, 0.32 (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.75) for nonfatal myocardial infarction, and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.18 to 0.69) for refractory angina. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with STEMI and multivessel coronary artery disease undergoing infarct-artery PCI, preventive PCI in noninfarct coronary arteries with major stenoses significantly reduced the risk of adverse cardiovascular events, as compared with PCI limited to the infarct artery. (Funded by Barts and the London Charity; PRAMI Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN73028481.).

Cost-benefit analysis of the polypill in the primary prevention of myocardial infarction and stroke.

The primary prevention of cardiovascular disease is a public health priority. To assess the costs and benefits of a Polypill Prevention Programme using a daily 4-component polypill from age 50 in the UK, we determined the life years gained without a first myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke, together with the total service cost (or saving) and the net cost (or saving) per year of life gained without a first MI or stroke. This was estimated on the basis of a 50 % uptake and a previously published 83 % treatment adherence. The total years of life gained without a first MI or stroke in a mature programme is 990,000 each year in the UK. If the cost of the Polypill Prevention Programme were £1 per person per day, the total cost would be £4.76 bn and, given the savings (at 2014 prices) of £2.65 bn arising from the disease prevented, there would be a net cost of £2.11 bn representing a net cost per year of life gained without a first MI or stroke of £2120. The results are robust to sensitivity analyses. A national Polypill Prevention Programme would have a substantial effect in preventing MIs and strokes and be cost-effective.

Prenatal reflex DNA screening for Down syndrome: enhancing the screening performance of the initial first trimester test.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of adding three biochemical markers (alphafetoprotein, inhibin-A, and placental growth factor) and two ultrasound markers (ductus venosus pulsatility index and nasal bone examination) to enhance the initial Combined test in prenatal reflex DNA screening for Down syndrome. METHODS: Published data were used to estimate screening performance [detection rates (DRs) and false-positive rates (FPRs)] of reflex DNA screening according to the additional markers used, the proportion of women with the highest initial test risks reflexed to DNA testing and the gestational age at the time of blood collection. RESULTS: If 10% of women are reflexed, the addition of the three biochemical markers to the Combined test increases the DR from 90.8% to 92.3% (FPR 0.025% to 0.027%) with markers measured at 11 completed weeks' gestation. With markers measured at 13 completed weeks' gestation the DR increases from 87.7% to 95.2% (FPRs both 0.027%). The further addition of the two ultrasound markers increases the DR to 96.8% and 97.5% at 11 and 13 weeks' respectively (FPR to 0.024% and 0.022% respectively). CONCLUSION: Adding the specified markers to the Combined test can maintain or improve screening performance with a lower proportion of women reflexed. Our results can be used to determine the most cost-effective reflex DNA screening policy. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Antenatal thyroid screening and childhood cognitive function.

BACKGROUND: Children born to women with low thyroid hormone levels have been reported to have decreased cognitive function. METHODS: We conducted a randomized trial in which pregnant women at a gestation of 15 weeks 6 days or less provided blood samples for measurement of thyrotropin and free thyroxine (T(4)). Women were assigned to a screening group (in which measurements were obtained immediately) or a control group (in which serum was stored and measurements were obtained shortly after delivery). Thyrotropin levels above the 97.5th percentile, free T(4) levels below the 2.5th percentile, or both were considered a positive screening result. Women with positive findings in the screening group were assigned to 150 µg of levothyroxine per day. The primary outcome was IQ at 3 years of age in children of women with positive results, as measured by psychologists who were unaware of the group assignments. RESULTS: Of 21,846 women who provided blood samples (at a median gestational age of 12 weeks 3 days), 390 women in the screening group and 404 in the control group tested positive. The median gestational age at the start of levothyroxine treatment was 13 weeks 3 days; treatment was adjusted as needed to achieve a target thyrotropin level of 0.1 to 1.0 mIU per liter. Among the children of women with positive results, the mean IQ scores were 99.2 and 100.0 in the screening and control groups, respectively (difference, 0.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.1 to 2.6; P=0.40 by intention-to-treat analysis); the proportions of children with an IQ of less than 85 were 12.1% in the screening group and 14.1% in the control group (difference, 2.1 percentage points; 95% CI, -2.6 to 6.7; P=0.39). An on-treatment analysis showed similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Antenatal screening (at a median gestational age of 12 weeks 3 days) and maternal treatment for hypothyroidism did not result in improved cognitive function in children at 3 years of age. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust UK and Compagnia di San Paulo, Turin; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN46178175.).

Quantifying the health benefits of chronic disease prevention: a fresh approach using cardiovascular disease as an example.

Current methods of determining the proportion of people who benefit from a preventive intervention and the years of life gained can underestimate the former and overestimate the latter. We describe how to overcome these errors, using two examples relating to the prevention of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke, one using a specified polypill daily from age 50 and another reducing salt intake in the population. Standard life table analysis was used to calculate the person-years of life gained without an MI or stroke, based on estimates of the incidence of these disorders in England and Wales. The proportion of individuals who benefit was taken as everyone who would, without treatment, have an MI or stroke (holistic model), rather than limiting the benefit to the proportion calculated from the relative risk reduction (reductionist model), as is current practice. Under the holistic model, 33% of people who take the polypill from age 50 benefit, gaining, on average, 8 years of life without an MI or stroke (19% and 14 years under the reductionist model). Estimates for reducing salt intake by 6 g/day are 33% and 2.8 years respectively under the holistic model (6% and 16 years under the reductionist model). In the prevention of disorders such as stroke by reducing exposure to causal factors such as blood pressure, the use of a holistic model corrects the underestimation of the proportion of people who benefit and the overestimation of their years of life gained associated with current methods.

Comparing screening based on the NHS Health Check and Polypill Prevention Programmes in the primary prevention of heart attacks and strokes.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the NHS Health Check Programme with the Polypill Prevention Programme in the primary prevention of heart attacks and strokes. DESIGN: Use of published data and methodology to produce flow charts of the two programmes to determine screening performance and heart attacks and strokes prevented. SETTING: The UK population. INTERVENTION: The NHS Health Check Programme using a QRISK score on people aged 40-74 to select those eligible for a statin is compared with the Polypill Prevention Programme in people aged 50 or more to select people for a combination of a statin and three low-dose blood pressure lowering agents. In both programmes, people had no history of heart attack or stroke. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: In 1000 people, the number of heart attacks and strokes prevented in the two programmes. RESULTS: In the hypothetical perfect situation with 100% uptake and adherence to the screening protocol, in every 1000 persons, the NHS Health Check would prevent 287 cases of a heart attack or stroke in individuals who would gain on average about 4 years of life without a heart attack or stroke amounting to 1148 years in total, the precise gain depending on the extent of treatment for those with raised blood pressure, and 136 would be prescribed statins with no benefit. The corresponding figures for the Polypill Prevention Programme are 316 individuals who would, on average, gain 8 years of life without a heart attack or stroke, amounting to 2528 years in total, and 260 prescribed the polypill with no benefit. Based on published estimates of uptake and adherence in the NHS Health Check Programme, in practice only 24 cases per 1000 are currently benefitting instead of 287, amounting to 96 years gained without a heart attack or stroke. CONCLUSIONS: The Polypill Prevention Programme is by design simpler with the potential of preventing many more heart attacks and strokes than the NHS Health Check Programme.

The polypill in the primary prevention of heart attacks and strokes: Overcoming barriers to implementation.

This commentary, linked to our paper in the same issue of the Journal of Medical Screening, discusses the reluctance to consider and adopt the polypill in the primary prevention of heart attacks and strokes, access to the polypill as a public health service, the formulation of the polypill in current use, its prescription as an unlicensed medicine, and what can be done to facilitate the adoption of the polypill approach as a routine public health service.