Fitting the reproduction number from UK coronavirus case data and why it is close to 1.

We present a method for rapid calculation of coronavirus growth rates and [Formula: see text]-numbers tailored to publicly available UK data. We assume that the case data comprise a smooth, underlying trend which is differentiable, plus systematic errors and a non-differentiable noise term, and use bespoke data processing to remove systematic errors and noise. The approach is designed to prioritize up-to-date estimates. Our method is validated against published consensus [Formula: see text]-numbers from the UK government and is shown to produce comparable results two weeks earlier. The case-driven approach is combined with weight-shift-scale methods to monitor trends in the epidemic and for medium-term predictions. Using case-fatality ratios, we create a narrative for trends in the UK epidemic: increased infectiousness of the B1.117 (Alpha) variant, and the effectiveness of vaccination in reducing severity of infection. For longer-term future scenarios, we base future [Formula: see text] on insight from localized spread models, which show [Formula: see text] going asymptotically to 1 after a transient, regardless of how large the [Formula: see text] transient is. This accords with short-lived peaks observed in case data. These cannot be explained by a well-mixed model and are suggestive of spread on a localized network. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

Serious games may improve physician heuristics in trauma triage.

Trauma triage depends on fallible human judgment. We created two "serious" video game training interventions to improve that judgment. The interventions' central theoretical construct was the representativeness heuristic, which, in trauma triage, would mean judging the severity of an injury by how well it captures (or "represents") the key features of archetypes of cases requiring transfer to a trauma center. Drawing on clinical experience, medical records, and an expert panel, we identified features characteristic of representative and nonrepresentative cases. The two interventions instantiated both kinds of cases. One was an adventure game, seeking narrative engagement; the second was a puzzle-based game, emphasizing analogical reasoning. Both incorporated feedback on diagnostic errors, explaining their sources and consequences. In a four-arm study, they were compared with an intervention using traditional text-based continuing medical education materials (active control) and a no-intervention (passive control) condition. A sample of 320 physicians working at nontrauma centers in the United States was recruited and randomized to a study arm. The primary outcome was performance on a validated virtual simulation, measured as the proportion of undertriaged patients, defined as ones who had severe injuries (according to American College of Surgeons guidelines) but were not transferred. Compared with the control group, physicians exposed to either game undertriaged fewer such patients [difference = -18%, 95% CI: -30 to -6%, P = 0.002 (adventure game); -17%, 95% CI: -28 to -6%, P = 0.003 (puzzle game)]; those exposed to the text-based education undertriaged similar proportions (difference = +8%, 95% CI: -3 to +19%, P = 0.15).

Effects of Changes in ICU Bed Supply on ICU Utilization.

BACKGROUND: The availability of intensive care unit (ICU) beds may influence the demand for critical care. Although small studies support a model of supply-induced demand in the ICU, there is a paucity of system-wide data. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine the relationship between ICU bed supply and ICU admission in United States hospitals. RESEARCH DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using all-payer inpatient records from Florida, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and Washington from 2010 to 2012, linked to hospital data from Medicare's Healthcare Cost Reporting Information System. SUBJECTS: Three patient groups with a low likelihood of benefiting from ICU admission-low severity patients with acute myocardial infarction and pulmonary embolism; and high severity patients with metastatic cancer at the end of life. MEASURES: We compared the risk-adjusted probability of ICU admission at hospitals that increased their ICU bed supply over time to matched hospitals that did not, using a difference-in-differences approach. RESULTS: For patients with acute myocardial infarction, ICU supply increases were associated with an increase in the probability of ICU admission that diminished over time. For patients with pulmonary embolism, there was a trend toward an association between change in ICU supply and ICU admission that did not meet statistical significance. For patients with metastatic cancer, admission to hospitals with an increasing ICU supply was not associated with changes in the probability of ICU admission. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in ICU bed supply were associated with inconsistent changes in the probability of ICU admission that varied across patient subgroups.

Does Preexisting Practice Modify How Video Games Recalibrate Physician Heuristics in Trauma Triage?

BACKGROUND: A majority of severely injured patients fail to receive care at trauma centers (undertriage), in part, because of physician judgment. We previously developed two educational video games that reduced physicians' undertriage compared with control in two clinical trials. In this secondary analysis, we investigated heterogeneity of treatment effect of the interventions by assessing physicians' preexisting practice patterns in claims data. We hypothesized that physicians with high preexisting undertriage would benefit most from game-based training. METHODS: Using Medicare claims records from 2010 to 2015, we measured physicians' preexisting triage practices before their participation in one of two trials conducted in 2016 and 2017. We categorized physicians as having received game-based training versus control and noted their postintervention simulation triage performance in the trials. We used multivariable linear regression models to assess the heterogeneity of game-based training effect among physicians with high and low preexisting undertriage. RESULTS: Of the 394 eligible physicians from our trials, we identified 275 (70%) with claims for Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries suffering severe injury between 2010 and 2015. On average, the physicians were 44 y old (SD 8.4) with 12 y (SD 8.2) of experience. We found significant interaction between preexisting practice and intervention efficacy (P = 0.04). Physicians with high undertriage before enrollment improved significantly with game-based training compared with the control (46% versus 63%, P < 0.001). Those with low preexisting undertriage did not (58% versus 56%, P = 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Using claims-based data, we found heterogeneity of treatment effect of interventions designed to recalibrate physician heuristics. Physicians with high preexisting undertriage benefited most from game-based training.

Strategies to effect change in the ICU.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To provide an update on implementation efforts in the care of critically ill patients, with a focus on work published in the last 2 years. RECENT FINDINGS: Only half of surveyed members of the multidisciplinary care team in the ICU were aware of the Choosing Wisely campaign, and of those that were, approximately one-third reported no implementation of the recommendations. Barriers to implementation of the ABCDE bundle extend to beyond patient-level domains, and include clinician-related, protocol-related, and other domains. Prospective audit and feedback approaches have demonstrated moderate success for improving the quality of antibiotic prescription practices in the ICU. SUMMARY: Clinical research in intensive care has moved beyond simple discovery and dissemination. Best practices must be applied to effect change in ICU care, requiring the application of principles from implementation science. Future work should move beyond simple before-after evaluations to provide a stronger case for causal inference following implementation efforts.

Long-Term Outcomes of Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Care at Regionalized Centers.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: It is unknown whether regionalization of postarrest care by interfacility transfer to cardiac arrest receiving centers reduces mortality. We seek to evaluate whether treatment at a cardiac arrest receiving center, whether by direct transport or early interfacility transfer, is independently associated with long-term outcome. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study including adults resuscitated from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in southwestern Pennsylvania and neighboring Ohio, West Virginia, and Maryland, which includes approximately 5.7 million residents in urban, suburban, and rural counties. Patients were treated by 1 of 78 ground emergency medical services agencies or 2 air medical transport agencies between January 1, 2010, and November 30, 2014. Our primary exposures of interest were interfacility transfer to a cardiac arrest receiving center within 24 hours of arrest or any treatment at a cardiac arrest receiving center regardless of transfer status. Our primary outcome was vital status, assessed through December 31, 2014, with National Death Index records. We used unadjusted and adjusted survival analyses to test the independent association of cardiac arrest receiving center care, whether through direct or interfacility transport, on mortality. RESULTS: Overall, 5,217 cases were observed for 3,629 person-years, with 3,865 total deaths. Most patients (82%) were treated at 42 non-cardiac arrest receiving centers with median annual volume of 17 cases (interquartile range 1 to 53 cases per center annually), whereas 18% were cared for at cardiac arrest receiving centers receiving at least 1 interfacility transfer per month. In adjusted models, treatment at a cardiac arrest receiving center was independently associated with reduced hazard of death compared with treatment at a non-cardiac arrest receiving center (adjusted hazard ratio 0.84; 95% confidence interval 0.74 to 0.94). These effects were unchanged when analysis was restricted to patients brought from the scene to the treating hospital. No other hospital characteristic, including total out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patient volume and cardiac catheterization capabilities, independently predicted outcome. CONCLUSION: Both early interfacility transfer to a cardiac arrest receiving center and direct transport to a cardiac arrest receiving center from the scene are independently associated with reduced mortality.

Role of follow-up CT scans in the management of traumatic pediatric epidural hematomas.

INTRODUCTION: Management of pediatric epidural hematoma (PEDH) ranges from observation to emergent craniotomy. Guidelines for management remain poorly defined. More so, serial CT imaging in the pediatric population is often an area of controversy given the concern for excessive radiation as well as increased costs. This work aims to further elucidate the need for serial imaging to surgical decision-making. METHODS: A prospectively maintained single-institution trauma database was reviewed at a level-1 trauma center to identify patients 18 years old and younger presenting with PEDH over a 10-year period. Selected charts were reviewed for demographic information, mechanisms of injury, neurologic exam, radiographic findings, and treatment course. Surgical decisions were at the discretion of the neurosurgeon on call, often in discussion with a pediatric neurosurgeon. RESULTS: Two hundred and ten records with traumatic epidural hematomas were reviewed. Seventy-three (35%) were taken emergently for hematoma evacuation. Of these, 18 (25%) underwent repeat imaging prior to surgery. One hundred and thirty-seven (65%) were admitted for observation. Seventy-two patients (53%) did not undergo repeat imaging. Sixty-five (47%) admitted for conservative management had at least one repeat scan during their hospitalization. Indications for follow-up imaging during conservative management included routine follow-up (74%), initial scan in our system following transfer (17%), neurological decline (8%), and unknown (1%). Thirteen patients (9%) were taken for surgery in a delayed fashion following admission. Twelve patients who went to surgery in a delayed fashion demonstrated progression on follow-up imaging; however, increase in hematoma size on repeat imaging was the sole surgical indication in only four patients (3%). There were no deaths related to the epidural hemorrhage or postoperatively, regardless of management, and all patients recovered to their pre-trauma baseline. CONCLUSION: Given that isolated hematoma expansion accounted for an exceptionally small proportion of operative indications, this data suggests changes seen on CT should not be solely relied upon to dictate surgical management. The benefit of obtaining follow-up imaging must be strongly considered and weighed against the known deleterious effects of excessive radiation in pediatric patients, let alone its clinical utility.

Management of non-missile penetrating spinal injury.

Review of the literature with case illustration. Non-missile penetrating spinal injury (NPSI) represents a small subset of spinal cord injuries at tertiary trauma centers and is comprised mostly of knife violence. Strict guidelines for the management of penetrating spinal cord injury remain elusive given the variability of mechanisms, rarity of clinical experience, and paucity of prospective studies. A review of the literature was conducted by search of the National Library of Medicine (PubMed) in the English language through June of 2018. Additional articles were culled from the reference lists of the included series. Eleven case series totaling 1007 patients, along with 21 case reports, were identified. In summary, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) may be beneficial in assessing incomplete or progressive spinal injuries and can be considered with retained foreign bodies in select cases. Forty-eight hours of antibiotic prophylaxis is likely sufficient to prevent infection. Puncture wounds should be debrided, washed, and closed. Retained foreign bodies should be removed in the operating room and often require laminectomy. Early intervention is preferred. Non-missile penetrating spinal injury has a higher likelihood of neurologic recovery as compared to other traumatic spinal injuries.

Spinal cord injury and the human microbiome: beyond the brain-gut axis.

In addition to standard management for the treatment of the acute phase of spinal cord injury (SCI), implementation of novel neuroprotective interventions offers the potential for significant reductions in morbidity and long-term health costs. A better understanding of the systemic changes after SCI could provide insight into mechanisms that lead to secondary injury. An emerging area of research involves the complex interplay of the gut microbiome and the CNS, i.e., a brain-gut axis, or perhaps more appropriately, a CNS-gut axis. This review summarizes the relevant literature relating to the gut microbiome and SCI. Experimental models in stroke and traumatic brain injury demonstrate the bidirectional communication of the CNS to the gut with postinjury dysbiosis, gastrointestinal-associated lymphoid tissue-mediated neuroinflammatory responses, and bacterial-metabolite neurotransmission. Similar findings are being elucidated in SCI as well. Experimental interventions in these areas have shown promise in improving functional outcomes in animal models. This commensal relationship between the human body and its microbiome, particularly the gut microbiome, represents an exciting frontier in experimental medicine.

Access to High Pediatric-Readiness Emergency Care in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the geographic accessibility of emergency departments (EDs) with high pediatric readiness by assessing the percentage of US children living within a 30-minute drive time of an ED with high pediatric readiness, as defined by collaboratively developed published guidelines. STUDY DESIGN: In this cross-sectional analysis, we examined geographic access to an ED with high pediatric readiness among US children. Pediatric readiness was assessed using the weighted pediatric readiness score (WPRS) of US hospitals based on the 2013 National Pediatric Readiness Project (NPRP) survey. A WPRS of 100 indicates that the ED meets the essential guidelines for pediatric readiness. Using estimated drive time from ZIP code centroids, we determined the proportions of US children living within a 30-minute drive time of an ED with a WPRS of 100 (maximum), 94.3 (90th percentile), and 83.6 (75th percentile). RESULTS: Although 93.7% of children could travel to any ED within 30 minutes, only 33.7% of children could travel to an ED with a WPRS of 100, 55.3% could travel to an ED with a WPRS at or above the 90th percentile, and 70.2% could travel to an ED with a WPRS at or above the 75th percentile. Among children within a 30-minute drive of an ED with the maximum WPRS, 90.9% lived closer to at least 1 alternative ED with a WPRS below the maximum. Access varied across census divisions, ranging from 14.9% of children in the East South Center to 56.2% in the Mid-Atlantic for EDs scoring a maximum WPRS. CONCLUSION: A significant proportion of US children do not have timely access to EDs with high pediatric readiness.

Referral Regions for Time-Sensitive Acute Care Conditions in the United States.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Regional, coordinated care for time-sensitive and high-risk medical conditions is a priority in the United States. A necessary precursor to coordinated regional care is regions that are actionable from clinical and policy standpoints. The Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care, the major health care referral construct in the United States, uses regions that cross state and county boundaries, limiting fiscal or political ownership by key governmental stakeholders in positions to create incentive and regulate regional care coordination. Our objective is to develop and evaluate referral regions that define care patterns for patients with acute myocardial infraction, acute stroke, or trauma, yet also preserve essential political boundaries. METHODS: We developed a novel set of acute care referral regions using Medicare data in the United States from 2011. For acute myocardial infraction, acute stroke, or trauma, we iteratively aggregated counties according to patient home location and treating hospital address, using a spatial algorithm. We evaluated referral political boundary preservation and spatial accuracy for each set of referral regions. RESULTS: The new set of referral regions, the Pittsburgh Atlas, had 326 distinct regions. These referral regions did not cross any county or state borders, whereas 43.1% and 98.1% of all Dartmouth Atlas hospital referral regions crossed county and state borders. The Pittsburgh Atlas was comparable to the Dartmouth Atlas in measures of spatial accuracy and identified larger at-risk populations for all 3 conditions. CONCLUSION: A novel and straightforward spatial algorithm generated referral regions that were politically actionable and accountable for time-sensitive medical emergencies.

An Official American Thoracic Society Systematic Review: The Effect of Nighttime Intensivist Staffing on Mortality and Length of Stay among Intensive Care Unit Patients.

BACKGROUND: Studies of nighttime intensivist staffing have yielded mixed results. GOALS: To review the association of nighttime intensivist staffing with outcomes of intensive care unit (ICU) patients. METHODS: We searched five databases (2000-2016) for studies comparing in-hospital nighttime intensivist staffing with other nighttime staffing models in adult ICUs and reporting mortality or length of stay. We abstracted data on staffing models, outcomes, and study characteristics and assessed study quality, using standardized tools. Meta-analyses used random effects models. RESULTS: Eighteen studies met inclusion criteria: one randomized controlled trial and 17 observational studies. Overall methodologic quality was high. Studies included academic hospitals (n = 10), community hospitals (n = 2), or both (n = 6). Baseline clinician staffing included residents (n = 9), fellows (n = 4), and nurse practitioners or physician assistants (n = 2). Studies included both general and specialty ICUs and were geographically diverse. Meta-analysis (one randomized controlled trial; three nonrandomized studies with exposure limited to nighttime intensivist staffing with adjusted estimates of effect) demonstrated no association with mortality (odds ratio, 0.99; 95% confidence interval, 0.75-1.29). Secondary analyses including studies without risk adjustment, with a composite exposure of organizational factors, stratified by intensity of daytime staffing and by ICU type, yielded similar results. Minimal or no differences were observed in ICU and hospital length of stay and several other secondary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Notwithstanding limitations of the predominantly observational evidence, our systematic review and meta-analysis suggests nighttime intensivist staffing is not associated with reduced ICU patient mortality. Other outcomes and alternative staffing models should be evaluated to further guide staffing decisions.

Bone flap salvage in acute surgical site infection after craniotomy for tumor resection.

Craniotomy surgical site infections are an inherent risk and dreaded complication for the elective brain tumor patient. Sequelae can include delays in resumption in adjuvant treatments for multiple surgeries if staged cranioplasty is pursued. Here, the authors review their experience in operative debridement of surgical site infections with single-stage reimplantation of the salvaged craniotomy bone flap. A prospectively maintained database of a single surgeon's neuro-oncology patients from 2009 to 2017 (JRF) was queried to identify 11 patients with surgical site infection after craniotomy for tumor resection. All patients underwent a protocol of aggressive operative debridement including drilling the bone edges and intraoperative flap sterilization with single-stage reimplantation, followed by tailored-antibiotic therapy. Ten of the 11 patients with frankly contaminated bone flaps from surgical site infection were able to be salvaged in a single-stage procedure. Five of these patients underwent adjuvant chemotherapy and/or radiation without secondary complication. There was one treatment failure in a delayed fashion which required additional surgery for craniectomy; however, this occurred after adjuvant treatment was administered. Surgical debridement and bone flap salvage is safe and cost-effective in managing acute surgical site infections after craniotomy for tumors. Additionally, this practice is likely beneficial in expediting the resumption of cancer therapy.

Hospital-Level Changes in Adult ICU Bed Supply in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: Although the number of intensive care beds in the United States is increasing, little is known about the hospitals responsible for this growth. We sought to better characterize national growth in intensive care beds by identifying hospital-level factors associated with increasing numbers of intensive care beds over time. DESIGN: We performed a repeated-measures time series analysis of hospital-level intensive care bed supply using data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. SETTING: All United States acute care hospitals with adult intensive care beds over the years 1996-2011. PATIENTS: None. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We described the number of beds, teaching status, ownership, intensive care occupancy, and urbanicity for each hospital in each year of the study. We then examined the relationship between increasing intensive care beds and these characteristics, controlling for other factors. The study included 4,457 hospitals and 55,865 hospital-years. Overall, the majority of intensive care bed growth occurred in teaching hospitals (net, +13,471 beds; 72.1% of total growth), hospitals with 250 or more beds (net, +18,327 beds; 91.8% of total growth), and hospitals in the highest quartile of occupancy (net, +10,157 beds; 54.0% of total growth). In a longitudinal multivariable model, larger hospital size, teaching status, and high intensive care occupancy were associated with subsequent-year growth. Furthermore, the effects of hospital size and teaching status were modified by occupancy: the greatest odds of increasing ICU beds were in hospitals with 500 or more beds in the highest quartile of occupancy (adjusted odds ratio, 18.9; 95% CI, 14.0-25.5; p < 0.01) and large teaching hospitals in the highest quartile of occupancy (adjusted odds ratio, 7.3; 95% CI, 5.3-9.9; p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Increasingly, intensive care bed expansion in the United States is occurring in larger hospitals and teaching centers, particularly following a year with high ICU occupancy.

Pneumoencephalography in the workup of neuropsychiatric illnesses: a historical perspective.

Throughout history, neurosurgical procedures have been fundamental in advancing neuroscience; however, this has not always been without deleterious side effects or harmful consequences. While critical to the progression of clinical neuroscience during the early 20th century, yet, at the same time, poorly tolerated by patients, pneumoencephalography is one such procedure that exemplifies this juxtaposition. Presented herein are historical perspectives and reflections on the role of the pneumoencephalography in the diagnosis and treatment of neuropsychiatric illnesses.

Using Supervised Machine Learning to Classify Real Alerts and Artifact in Online Multisignal Vital Sign Monitoring Data.

OBJECTIVE: The use of machine-learning algorithms to classify alerts as real or artifacts in online noninvasive vital sign data streams to reduce alarm fatigue and missed true instability. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: Twenty-four-bed trauma step-down unit. PATIENTS: Two thousand one hundred fifty-three patients. INTERVENTION: Noninvasive vital sign monitoring data (heart rate, respiratory rate, peripheral oximetry) recorded on all admissions at 1/20 Hz, and noninvasive blood pressure less frequently, and partitioned data into training/validation (294 admissions; 22,980 monitoring hours) and test sets (2,057 admissions; 156,177 monitoring hours). Alerts were vital sign deviations beyond stability thresholds. A four-member expert committee annotated a subset of alerts (576 in training/validation set, 397 in test set) as real or artifact selected by active learning, upon which we trained machine-learning algorithms. The best model was evaluated on test set alerts to enact online alert classification over time. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The Random Forest model discriminated between real and artifact as the alerts evolved online in the test set with area under the curve performance of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.67-0.93) for peripheral oximetry at the instant the vital sign first crossed threshold and increased to 0.87 (95% CI, 0.71-0.95) at 3 minutes into the alerting period. Blood pressure area under the curve started at 0.77 (95% CI, 0.64-0.95) and increased to 0.87 (95% CI, 0.71-0.98), whereas respiratory rate area under the curve started at 0.85 (95% CI, 0.77-0.95) and increased to 0.97 (95% CI, 0.94-1.00). Heart rate alerts were too few for model development. CONCLUSIONS: Machine-learning models can discern clinically relevant peripheral oximetry, blood pressure, and respiratory rate alerts from artifacts in an online monitoring dataset (area under the curve > 0.87).